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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 59266 as the U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped to 8.8 million on the last day of July, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report. The report said that the number of hires and total separations were little changed in July coming in at 5.8 million and 5.5 million respectively. The report also noted that the number of people quitting fell to 3.5 million; at the same time the layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.6 million. Central bank buying slowed in Q2 but remained resolutely positive. This, combined with healthy investment and resilient jewellery demand, created a supportive environment for gold prices. Central bank gold buying in H1 reached a first-half record of 387t. Despite the Q2 slowdown, the strong Q1 start set the seal on a record-breaking H1. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell by about 26% in July from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.47% to settle at 12423 while prices are up 379 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58980 and below same could see a test of 58690 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59425, a move above could see prices testing 59580.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58690-59580.
* Gold gains as the U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling.
* Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped to 8.8 million on the last day of July, the Labor Department said.
* Central bank buying slowed in Q2 but remained resolutely positive.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.46% at 74685 as the dollar index slipped below 104 as investors bet that weaker economic data could deter central banks from tightening monetary policy. The JOLTs report indicated 8.8 million US jobs were added in July, missing the 9.5 million expectation. Markets now await key job data, the PCE price index, and Q2 GDP figures for insight into interest rate trends. In his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated readiness to raise rates appropriately while cautiously considering progress in easing price pressures and risks from the robust US economy. Powell also stated that another rate hike could be warranted should above-trend growth patterns persist, after underscoring the priority to bring inflation down to the 2% level. The remarks drove money markets to price in another 25bps rate hike in November following a hold next month. The number of job quits in the United States decreased by 253,000 from the previous month to 3.549 million in July 2023, marking the lowest reading in nearly two-and-a-half years. The number of job openings declined by 338,000 from a month earlier to 8.827 million in July 2023, reaching the lowest level since March 2021. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -109.84% to settle at 2580 while prices are up 1073 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 73800 and below same could see a test of 72920 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75180, a move above could see prices testing 75680.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 72920-75680.
* Silver gains as the dollar index slipped below 104
* The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note sank to the 4.15% level, retreating further from the 15-year high of 4.34%
* Investors bet that weaker economic data could deter central banks from tightening monetary policy.

Crudeoil

Crudeoil yesterday settled up by 1.3% at 6704 amid weaker dollar and China stimulus optimism outweighed growing concerns over fuel demand. Prices were also supported by concerns that a tropical storm off the U.S. Gulf Coast may impact supply. Meanwhile, Idalia has strengthened into a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and stronger gusts. The system is expected to "rapidly intensify" and make landfall in Florida, likely causing some production shutdowns in the oil-producing Gulf of Mexico region. U.S. field production of crude oil rose last week by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 12.8 million bpd, the highest since March 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly Petroleum Status Report. That was also the first-time field production increased for three weeks in a row since December 2021. U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week as refinery processing surged and crude output reached their highest since the coronavirus pandemic decimated fuel consumption, Energy Information Administration data showed. Crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 18 to 433.5 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.8 million-barrel drop. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.1% to settle at 4946 while prices are up 86 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting support at 6613 and below same could see a test of 6522 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6752, a move above could see prices testing 6800.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6522-6800.
* Crude oil gains amid weaker dollar and China stimulus optimism outweighed growing concerns over fuel demand.
* Prices were also supported by concerns that a tropical storm off the U.S. Gulf Coast may impact supply.
* Meanwhile, Idalia has strengthened into a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and stronger gusts.

Naturalgas

Naturalgas yesterday settled down by -0.99% at 219.1 amid forecasts for less hot weather and lower gas use next week than previously expected. Hurricane Idalia is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour (193 kilometers per hour) before hitting the northwest coast of Florida early Wednesday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Meteorologists forecast that hotter-than-usual weather will persist through early September, prompting investors to anticipate higher consumption. Also, output eased to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 101.8 bcfd in July and a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. On the other hand, the flow of gas to US LNG export plants has diminished in August, primarily due to reduced operations at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states fell to 101.1 bcfd so far in August, down from 101.8 bcfd in July. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 2.5 bcfd to a preliminary two-month low of 99.1 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to reductions in Colorado, North Dakota and West Virginia. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 18.56% to settle at 43090 while prices are down -2.2 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 216.5 and below same could see a test of 214 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 222.8, a move above could see prices testing 226.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 214-226.6.
* Natural gas slid amid forecasts for less hot weather and lower gas use.
* The flow of gas to US LNG export plants has diminished in August, primarily due to reduced operations
* Meteorologists forecast that hotter-than-usual weather will persist through early September


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 737.1 after China moved to boost its struggling housing and stock markets ahead of data from the manufacturing sector. Also helping risk sentiment across financial assets was China's move to boost its stock market by slashing stamp duty, among other measures. The dollar eased as traders refrained from placing big bets ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data, including the PCE price index on Thursday and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, that could define the outlook for interest rates. The global refined copper market showed a 90,000 metric tons deficit in June, compared with a 58,000 metric tons deficit in May, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 6 months of the year, the market was in a 213,000 metric tons surplus compared with a 196,000 metric tons deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in June was 2.25 million metric tons, while consumption was 2.34 million metric tons. When adjusted for changes in inventory in Chinese bonded warehouses, there was a 120,000 metric tons deficit in June compared with a 100,000 metric tons deficit in May, the ICSG said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.1% to settle at 5160 while prices are up 4.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 734.4 and below same could see a test of 731.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 738.8, a move above could see prices testing 740.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 731.5-740.3.
* Copper gains after China's move to support housing market
* The global refined copper market showed a 90,000 metric tons deficit in June
* Also helping risk sentiment across financial assets was China's move to boost its stock market by slashing stamp duty

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.88% at 217.6 on hopes for stronger demand from China's construction sector as it enters a seasonally strong period. A rise in cancelled zinc warrants - metal earmarked for delivery - at nearly 20% compared with 2% last week was also supporting zinc prices. Industrial metals markets are awaiting surveys of purchasing managers (PMIs) in China's manufacturing sector, a major driver of industrial metals demand, on Thursday and Friday. Expectations are for a fifth month of contraction. In the United States, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and non-farm payrolls data due later in the week is likely to yield clues to the U.S. interest rates and dollar direction, a short-term driver of industrial metal prices. Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 20.2% to a seven-month low. data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 81,500 mt as of Friday August 25, down 17,800 mt from Friday August 18 and down 12,300 mt from Monday August 21. The global zinc market surplus increased to 76,000 metric tons in June, up from 67,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.11% to settle at 3708 while prices are up 1.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 216.5 and below same could see a test of 215.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218.4, a move above could see prices testing 219.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 215.3-219.1.
* Zinc climbed on hopes for stronger demand from China's construction sector.
* A rise in cancelled zinc warrants at nearly 20% compared with 2% last week was also supporting zinc prices.
* Industrial metals markets are awaiting surveys of PMIs in China's manufacturing sector.



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.15% at 198.95 after China moved to boost its struggling housing and stock markets ahead of data from the manufacturing sector. For the housing market, China's central bank announced guidance on relaxing residential housing loan rules in an effort to boost loan applications and house purchases. The PBOC lowered its one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points to a record low of 3.45% on August 21, but kept the five-year loan prime rate unchanged at 4.2%. The central bank also slashed its seven-day reverse repo and one-year medium-term lending facility rates earlier this month. Moreover, heightened economic uncertainties and a deepening property sector crisis in China, as well as a widening interest rate differential weighed further on the yuan. China reported profits at China's industrial firms fell 6.7% in July from a year earlier, slumping for a seventh consecutive month due to persistently weak demand. According to statistics, China's domestic aluminum output in July 2023 (spanning 31 days) amounted to 3.568 million mt, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.95%. The average daily production in July experienced a month-on-month surge of over 3,000 mt, reaching approximately 115,100 mt. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.75% to settle at 4254 while prices are up 0.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 198.2 and below same could see a test of 197.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.8, a move above could see prices testing 200.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197.4-200.6.
* Aluminium gains after China moved to boost its struggling housing markets
* China's July aluminium production up 1.95% YoY at 3.568 million mt.
* Jan-Jul aluminium output grows 2.7% YoY to 23.676 million mt.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 59580 amid fears of lower production. after reports In Gujarat, sowing grows by nearly 5% with 2,679,299.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,545,105.00 hectares. India’s Cotton sowing dropped by nearly -1.82% to 122.56 lakh hectares in 2023 against an area sown of 124.82 lakh hectares in 2022. Cotton arrivals so far during the current season that started in October last year has crossed 318 lakh bales according to data available with the Cotton Corporation of India, said the Southern India Mills’ Association (SIMA). Arrivals in Punjab have been recorded at almost one-third of the previous year, 2021-22. In Punjab the arrival of cotton in the 2022-23 marketing season has been recorded at 8.7 lakh quintal till date this year, while it was 28.89 lakh quintal for the entire 2021-22 season. India is set for its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, with El Niño weather expected to cut September precipitation. This could make essentials like sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables more expensive and raise food inflation. The monsoon, vital for India's economy, provides 70% of the rain needed for crop watering and irrigation. The September rainfall deficit could make essentials more expensive and raise food inflation. In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28807.3 Rupees dropped by -0.02 percent. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5% to settle at 63 while prices are up 500 rupees, now Cottoncandy is getting support at 59460 and below same could see a test of 59340 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59740, a move above could see prices testing 59900.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 59340-59900.
* Cotton rose amid fears of lower production.
* In Gujarat, sowing grows by nearly 5% with 2,679,299.00 hectares
* Cotton arrivals so far during the current season that started in October last year has crossed 318 lakh bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28807.3 Rupees dropped by -0.02 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -6% at 14292 on profit booking amid subdued domestic demand at prevailing levels. Export enquires has been sluggish that is likely to weigh on market sentiments. Export demand has slowed down with sharp rise in prices. Ongoing sowing and crop progress is major price driver for turmeric and forecast of drier weather in southern and central region has added worries to turmeric crops that will cap the losses. The looming threat of El Nino casts a shadow over the upcoming turmeric crop. Meteorological predictions suggest the activation of El Nino in July, potentially resulting in reduced rainfall and drought conditions. Such conditions could particularly impact yields, like turmeric, that heavily rely on monsoon irrigation. Farmers shift in focus has led to expectations of a 20-25 percent decrease in turmeric sowing this year, notably in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports during Apr-Jun 2023, rose by 16.87 percent at 57,775.30 tonnes as compared to 49,435.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Jun 2022. India is set for its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, with El Niño weather expected to cut September precipitation. This could make essentials like sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables more expensive and raise food inflation. The monsoon, vital for India's economy, provides 70% of the rain needed for crop watering and irrigation. The September rainfall deficit could make essentials more expensive and raise food inflation. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13884.3 Rupees dropped by -2.92 percent. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.93% to settle at 15410 while prices are down -912 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 14048 and below same could see a test of 13806 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14776, a move above could see prices testing 15262.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13806-15262.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking amid subdued domestic demand at prevailing levels.
* India exported only 18.3 thousand tonnes in June’23 as compared to 18.5 thousand tonnes of previous year.
* Domestic demand remained subdued as most of the arrivals arrived are inferior quality that will keep profit booking intact in turmeric.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13884.3 Rupees dropped by -2.92 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -3.38% at 53495 in wake of improved global supply condition. However, downside seen limited as supply is limited due to the rainy environment. Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days. Drier weather condition in Gujarat will also lead to rise in arrivals that will cap the upwards move. China’s cumin imports and exports have caused temporary corrections in cumin prices, with a recent $200 decrease in the international market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new cumin adds further uncertainty to the market dynamics. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-Jun 2023, rose by 13.16 percent at 53,399.65 tonnes as compared to 47,190.98 tonnes exported during Apr- Jun 2022. In Jun 2023 around 10,411.14 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 25,903.63 tonnes in May 2023 showing a drop of 59.81%. In Jun 2023 around 10,411.14 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in Jun 2022 showing a drop of 51.78%. India is set for its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, with El Niño weather expected to cut September precipitation. This could make essentials like sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables more expensive and raise food inflation. The monsoon, vital for India's economy, provides 70% of the rain needed for crop watering and irrigation. The September rainfall deficit could make essentials more expensive and raise food inflation. In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 56190.2 Rupees dropped by -0.88 percent. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.82% to settle at 6297 while prices are down -1870 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 52800 and below same could see a test of 52100 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 54750, a move above could see prices testing 56000.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 52100-56000.
* Jeera prices dropped in wake of improved global supply condition.
* Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days.
* However, downside seen limited as supply is limited due to the rainy environment.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 56190.2 Rupees dropped by -0.88 percent.

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