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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.01% at 50194 as support seen buoyed by Bank of England steps to reassure markets and hawkish signals from the European Central Bank. A chorus of Fed officials reiterated this week that the central bank needs to raise interest rates to restrictive levels amid persistent inflationary pressures, even at the risk of some economic pain and financial market turmoil. Meanwhile, Britain's economy unexpectedly grew in the second quarter but was below its pre-pandemic peak, contrary to an earlier estimate that it had recovered. Indian dealers charged premiums of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices versus $2.5 discounts last week. Jewellers expect robust demand in the upcoming festive season as consumers would celebrate festivals without COVID-19 restrictions, which hampered demand in the past two years. In top consumer China, premiums of $20-$45 an ounce were charged over the international benchmark , compared with $26-$40 last week, amid a lack of fresh import quotas. Central banks’ appetite for buying gold stayed low throughout last month, as global reserves increased by a net 20 tonnes, the World Gold Council has reported. The net increase in August was below the 37-tonne rise recorded in July. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.12% to settle at 17531 while prices are up 7 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50041 and below same could see a test of 49889 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50455, a move above could see prices testing 50717.

Trading Ideas:
*Gold trading range for the day is 49889-50717.
* Gold prices gained as support seen buoyed by Bank of England steps to reassure markets and         hawkish signals from the European Central Bank.
* Fed policymakers have been resolute in raising interest rates despite a turmoil in global financial     markets.
* The physical gold market in India flipped to a premium as demand improved ahead of festivities, while Chinese premiums stayed elevated

SILVER

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.24% at 56858 as support seen after the dollar index hit a one-week low while upside seen capped amid worries about aggressive monetary policy tightening by central banks worldwide. I'm quite comfortable" with raising interest rates to 4-4.5 percent this year and 4.5-5 percent next year, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told, adding she expects that rates will need to stay at that level for all of 2023. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed the hawkish rhetoric, saying the U.S. central bank will need to go even further than it signaled last week. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard noted that the weekly Jobless Claims reported was a "super low number," and it was important to avoid a 1970s inflation scenario. U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in August, but aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as it battles stubbornly high inflation are slowing demand, which could limit an anticipated rebound in economic growth in the third quarter. The report from the Commerce Department also showed underlying inflation pressures building up last month. Spending was driven by services as a drop in gasoline prices freed up cash to spend on travel and dining out. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.19% to settle at 16696 while prices are up 698 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 56318 and below same could see a test of 55778 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57372, a move above could see prices testing 57886.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 55778-57886.
* Silver gains as support seen after the dollar index hit a one-week low
* U.S. Treasury yields declined despite hawkish Fed commentary.
* St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard noted that the weekly Jobless Claims reported was a "super low number"

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.4% at 6539 as pressure seen after survey showed OPEC oil output rose in September to its highest since 2020, surpassing a pledged hike for the month, after production in Libya recovered from disruption and Gulf members boosted output under a deal with allies. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has pumped 29.81 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey found, up 210,000 bpd from August and the highest since April 2020. OPEC and its allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, has been boosting output for months to unwind cuts made in 2020. But with oil prices weakening amid concern of recession, the bias shifted to cuts for October and OPEC+ looks set to tighten supply further at a meeting on Wednesday. OPEC+ oil producers considering lowering their output target at a meeting on Oct. 5 are focused on a cut of between 500,000 and 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to support the market, OPEC+ sources told. Top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia in August flagged the possibility of output cuts to address market volatility. Markets are also monitoring an escalating energy conflict between the European Union and Russia as an EU ban on Russian oil is set to take effect in December. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 41.06% to settle at 7960 while prices are down -161 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6427 and below same could see a test of 6314 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6704, a move above could see prices testing 6868.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6314-6868.
* Crude oil dropped as pressure seen after survey showed OPEC oil output in Sept hits highest since 2020
* Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria lead output increases
* OPEC+ oil output cut talks narrow to 0.5-1.0 mln bpd

NAT.GAS

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.23% at 560.9 on record output and as Hurricane Ian heads for the Carolinas after knocking out power to over 2.6 million customers in Florida, reducing the amount of gas generators need to burn to produce electricity. In its latest advisory, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ian would hit South Carolina later Friday as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 miles (137 km) per hour. Utilities in the Carolinas said they were preparing for outages. Also weighing on gas prices, demand was expected to decline in October when the Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland shuts for a couple weeks of maintenance. Cove Point consumes about 0.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 23. That was much bigger than the 94-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 77 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 86 bcf. Wind power produced about 10% of the nation's electricity last week, up from as little as 6% earlier in the month, according to federal energy data. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.05% to settle at 6063 while prices are down -7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 547.8 and below same could see a test of 534.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 575, a move above could see prices testing 589.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 534.6-589.
* Natural gas eased on record output and as Hurricane Ian heads for the Carolinas after knocking out power to over 2.6 million customers in Florida.
* EIA said utilities added 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 23.
* Demand would fall further in October when the Cove Point liquefied natural gas plant in Maryland shuts down for maintenance.

COPPER

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.43% at 644.95 as aggressive monetary tightening around the world has stoked fears of a global recession and dampened the demand for metals. The US Federal Reserve led the charge with its third straight 75 basis point rate hike to bring down inflation, along with increases by the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, among others. Economic uncertainties in China also weighed on sentiment after Nomura and Goldman Sachs lowered their growth forecasts for the country, citing expectations that its strict zero-Covid strategy would extend well into next year. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 9.4% year-on-year to 422,888 tonnes in August, the country's statistics agency INE said. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 17.4 % from last Friday, the exchange said. The copper spot premium in top consumer China could stay elevated in the next few months, as demand for the metal has improved on the back of government stimulus. The spot premium for refined copper was at 605 yuan ($85.36) a tonne on Thursday, up from 50 yuan a tonne at the end of last year. Earlier this month, it hit 825 yuan, the highest since November 2021. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.15% to settle at 5069 while prices are down -2.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 640.5 and below same could see a test of 635.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 652.9, a move above could see prices testing 660.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 635.9-660.7.
* Copper dropped as aggressive monetary tightening around the world has stoked fears of a global recession and dampened the demand
* Copper output in Chile, fell 9.4% year-on-year to 422,888 tonnes in August
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 17.4 % from last Friday, the exchange said.

ZINC

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.52% at 271.25 as China data showed a surprise expansion in September factory activity and a possible ban on Russian metal delivered to the London Metal Exchange (LME) raised supply concerns. China's factory activity unexpectedly expanded in September, returning to growth after two consecutive months of contraction. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged up to 50.1 in September, from 49.4 in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The data lent some support to the near-term demand outlook in the world's biggest metal consumer. The global zinc market moved to a deficit of 72,800 tonnes in July from a surplus of 34,600 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June. During the first seven months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 83,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 23,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Smelters in Europe have been cutting back their production and even shutting down as high energy prices exacerbated by the war in Ukraine are making it unprofitable. Half of Europe’s aluminum and zinc production capacity has already been forced offline due to the power crisis. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.35% to settle at 1646 while prices are up 1.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 266.2 and below same could see a test of 261 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 276.6, a move above could see prices testing 281.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 261-281.8.
* Zinc gains on China data, possible LME ban on Russian metal
* China's factory activity unexpectedly expanded in September, returning to growth after two consecutive months of contraction.
* Global zinc market flips to deficit of 72,800 T in July, says ILZSG

 ALUMINIUM

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.35% at 191.1 on profit booking amid Concerns about an economic and manufacturing slowdown as increasingly hawkish central banks have dented demand for industrial metals. The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a third consecutive meeting in September while forecasting rates to peak at 4.6% next year with no cuts until 2024, pushing back any dovish pivot that the markets were hoping for in the near term. China's factory activity unexpectedly expanded in September, helped by a series of recent easing measures, but gains were marginal as the economy continued to grapple with strict COVID curbs, a deepening property crisis and softening exports growth. Meanwhile, a sharp slowdown in services sector growth and a downbeat private manufacturing survey suggested the economy was struggling to regain traction after narrowly avoiding contraction in the second quarter. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.1 in September from 49.4 in August, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. However, the private Caixin survey released showed factory activity contracted at a sharper pace in September, with indexes for output, new orders and employment all declining due to weak demand. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.08% to settle at 4720 while prices are down -4.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 188.3 and below same could see a test of 185.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.2, a move above could see prices testing 201.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 185.3-201.1.
* Aluminum dropped on profit booking amid Concerns about an economic and manufacturing slowdown
* China's factory activity unexpectedly returns to growth in Sept
* China Sept official manufacturing PMI above forecast

MENTHA OIL

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 992.1 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, upside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 6.2 Rupees to end at 1135.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.34% to settle at 1472 while prices are down -2.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 986.2 and below same could see a test of 980.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 996.7, a move above could see prices testing 1001.4. 

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 980.4-1001.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 6.2 Rupees to end at 1135.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* However, upside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.

TURMERIC

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 6846 on some low level buying after pressure seen as sowing activities has almost completed in major growing states across India and Crop size is expected to be on par. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,826.38 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decrease of 0.12%. In the month of June 2022 around 17,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7103.55 Rupees gained 26.55 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.91% to settle at 10555 while prices are up 24 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6790 and below same could see a test of 6732 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6886, a move above could see prices testing 6924.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6732-6924.
* Turmeric gained on some low level buying after pressure seen as sowing activities has almost completed and Crop size is expected to be on par.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7103.55 Rupees gained 26.55 Rupees.

JEERA

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.68% at 24585 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 65.2 Rupees to end at 24458.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.16% to settle at 6714 while prices are up 165 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24470 and below same could see a test of 24350 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24690, a move above could see prices testing 24790.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24350-24790.
* Jeera prices rose as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 65.2 Rupees to end at 24458.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

COTTON

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.84% at 31050 as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. Cotton output is expected to rebound from last years’ experience of unseasonal rain affecting the crop. Production this year is seen at 341.9 lakh bales (170 kg) against 312.03 lakh bales last year. Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales till September 15, 2022 in the current season mainly due to the devastation caused by heavy rainfall and flash floods nationwide. In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg. Ginning mills have started buying seed cotton with the advent of the auspicious festival of Navratri. However, spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival. In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -140 Rupees to end at 33840 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.36% to settle at 945 while prices are up 260 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30610 and below same could see a test of 30170 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31470, a move above could see prices testing 31890.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30170-31890.
* Cotton prices gained as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
* In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg.
* Spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -140 Rupees to end at 33840 Rupees.

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