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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 51533 as elevated U.S. Treasury yields after strong March jobs data weighed, although the war in Ukraine and risk-off sentiment in wider stock markets bolstered safe-haven demand for the metal. Ukraine accused Russia of war crimes, overshadowing their peace talks due on Monday. Meanwhile, Germany said the West would agree to impose more sanctions on Moscow, causing share markets to turn cautious. Investors are looking forward to any discussion of a 50 basis point rate hike when the Fed releases minutes from its March meeting on Wednesday. Physical gold demand in India improved as domestic prices dropped ahead of a festival, while purchases in top consumer China were limited by COVID-19 lockdowns. There was a slight improvement in demand from jewellers but gold was still trading at a hefty discount. Dealers were offering a discount of up to $35 an ounce on official domestic prices down from the last week's discount of $53. In China, gold discounts widened to $2-$6 an ounce on global benchmark spot rates compared with $5 in the previous week. Ukraine's gold and foreign currency reserves stand at $29 billion, the same level as before Russia's invasion thanks to external financial support, the president's economic adviser Oleh Ustenko said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.34% to settled at 18126 while prices down -73 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51325 and below same could see a test of 51117 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51733, a move above could see prices testing 51933.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51117-51933.
Gold steadied as elevated U.S. Treasury yields after strong March jobs data weighed
Although the war in Ukraine and risk-off sentiment in wider stock markets bolstered safe-haven demand for the metal.
Physical gold demand in India improved as domestic prices dropped ahead of a festival, while purchases in top consumer China were limited by COVID-19 lockdowns


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 66295 as dollar seen supported as a strong US jobs report strengthened the case for more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes to tame decades-high inflation. The American economy added 431,000 jobs in March, falling short of expectations, but the unemployment rate fell to a new 2-year low of 3.6% and wage growth re-accelerated, supporting a 50 basis point rate increase in May. The dollar also gained markedly against the euro amid talks of further sanctions against Russia. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that western nations will impose additional sanctions on Russia in the coming days after Ukraine accused Russian forces of war crimes. Geopolitical tensions continue to remain on investors' radar, with the EU discussing a new round of sanctions on Russia in response to multiple reports that Russian troops executed unarmed civilians in Ukrainian towns. The new restrictions could target individuals, but could also include a ban on Russian ships using EU ports. New York Fed President John Williams said a "sequence of steps" could get interest rates back to more normal levels. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview that rising inflation and a tight labor market strengthen the case for a half-point hike in May 2022. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.11% to settled at 7452 while prices down -438 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65802 and below same could see a test of 65310 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66943, a move above could see prices testing 67592.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 65310-67592.
Silver dropped as dollar seen supported as a strong US jobs report strengthened the case for more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes
The dollar also gained amid talks of further sanctions against Russia.
The American economy added 431,000 jobs in March, falling short of expectations


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.06% at 7715 as support seen after update Kazakhstan's oil production excluding condensate fell to 1.55 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, down 3% from February. Chevron-led Tengizchevroil, operator of the giant Tengiz oilfield, decreased its March oil output even more, by 6% from February to 622,209 bpd. U.S.-allied countries agreed to their second coordinated oil release in a month to calm markets roiled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, without specifying volumes. The silence on the size of the agreed release left crude prices largely unmoved, with benchmark Brent trading near $104 a barrel, underscoring supply concerns as releases from finite supplies struggle to make up for a loss of 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil estimated by the IEA. President Joe Biden's administration on Friday sharply boosted fuel economy standards for vehicles, reversing former President Donald Trump's rollback of U.S. regulations aimed at improving gas mileage and cutting tailpipe pollution. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced it will boost fuel efficiency requirements by 8% for both the 2024 and 2025 model years and 10% in 2026. That was a slightly bigger increase than the proposal outlined in August. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 34.83% to settled at 4847 while prices up 156 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7491 and below same could see a test of 7267 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7886, a move above could see prices testing 8057.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7267-8057.
Crude oil gained as support seen after update Kazakhstan's oil production excluding condensate fell to 1.55 million barrels per day (bpd) in March
IEA states agree on coordinated oil release but not volumes
U.S. boosts fuel efficiency rules as Biden reverses Trump rollback


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 435.5 on profit booking after seen supported as soaring global prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities injected 26 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended March 25 when mild weather kept heating demand low. That was the first injection in 2022, but analysts said cooler weather this week will likely result in another draw. The U.S. gas market, however, remains mostly shielded from higher global prices because the United States, the world's top gas producer, has all the fuel it needs for domestic use, and the country's ability to export more LNG is constrained by limited capacity. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 93.7 bcfd in March from 92.8 bcfd in February, as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing over the winter. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 106.2 bcfd this week to 96.7 bcfd next week and 93.1 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns seasonally milder. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.76% to settled at 7871 while prices down -2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 428 and below same could see a test of 420.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 442.7, a move above could see prices testing 449.8.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 420.4-449.8.
Natural gas dropped on profit booking after seen supported as soaring global prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at record highs.
EIA said utilities injected 26 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended March 25 when mild weather kept heating demand low.
Russia suspends gas flows to Germany through the Yamal-Europe pipeline – Gascade



Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 820.55 after COVID-19 lockdowns in China, traders are hopeful of stimulus to support economic growth. However, upside seen limited as the dollar strengthened and U.S. jobs data boosted expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, while lingering demand concerns in top consumer China also weighed. Sluggish trading, however, was expected as Chinese financial markets were closed for a public holiday, but traders kept a wary eye on the country's COVID-19 lockdowns and its impact on economic output and overall demand. Peru, the world's no. 2 copper producer, will target "excess profits" that mining firms have gained from soaring global metals prices for extra taxation, the country's economy minister told. Data showed that factory activity in top metals consumer China slumped at the fastest pace in two years last month, hit by a COVID-19 resurgence and related restrictions. Most Asian factories saw activity slow in March, as slumping Chinese demand and rising raw material costs blamed on the Ukraine crisis added strains to firms already suffering from lingering supply chain disruptions. Shanghai is set to expand COVID curbs to include the western half of the city and extend restrictions in the east where people have already been forced to stay home since Monday. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.89% to settled at 3524 while prices up 4.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 814 and below same could see a test of 807.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 826.4, a move above could see prices testing 832.2.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 807.4-832.2.
Copper gains after COVID-19 lockdowns in China, traders are hopeful of stimulus to support economic growth.
However, upside seen limited as the dollar strengthened and U.S. jobs data boosted expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve
Traders kept a wary eye on the country's COVID-19 lockdowns and its impact on economic output and overall demand.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.87% at 349.45 on profit booking as COVID-19 lockdowns could curb metals demand in China, but traders are hopeful of stimulus to support economic growth. However, downside seen limited amid lingering concerns of further supply disruptions due to prolonged high energy prices. Exchange and trade inventory has been falling dramatically, with LME’s European warehouses virtually empty while these in the US have declined to 25,925 tons. Mounting sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine triggered an international energy crunch, which, in turn, led to many smelters halting or reducing zinc metal production. On top of that, strong consumption from the steel sector will continue to boost the demand for zinc in the coming months. On-warrant inventories of zinc in LME-registered warehouses fell to 78,125 tonnes, the lowest since May 2020 and down from about 130,000 tonnes in mid-March. High energy prices have forced some zinc smelters in Europe to curtail production and Russia's demand for payment for gas in roubles has raised fears of supply shortages or still higher prices. Germany said the West would agree to impose more sanctions on Russia in the coming days as nations around the world expressed outrage over civilian deaths in Ukraine. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.68% to settled at 1425 while prices down -6.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 342.2 and below same could see a test of 334.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 359.9, a move above could see prices testing 370.3.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 334.9-370.3.
Zinc dropped on profit booking as COVID-19 lockdowns could curb metals demand in China.
However, downside seen limited amid lingering concerns of further supply disruptions due to prolonged high energy prices.
On-warrant inventories of zinc in LME warehouses fell to 78,125 tonnes, the lowest since May 2020 and down from about 130,000 tonnes in mid-March.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 2.13% at 2500 as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt. Pressure seen on disappointing China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.65% to settled at 185 while prices up 52.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2500 and below same could see a test of 2500 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2500, a move above could see prices testing 2500.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2500-2500.
Nickel rose as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt.
Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.59% at 276.15 as aluminium production resumption accelerated, but output in Q1 will drop YoY. However downside seen limited amid supply disruptions and increased production costs on the heels of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Earlier, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a ban on alumina and aluminum ores exports to Russia. Australia supplies almost 20% of Russia's alumina, the key ingredient for producing aluminum, and the move aims to inflict more economic pain on the Krelim over its decision to invade Ukraine. Supporting prices further were risks of supply shortages amid the heightened Russia-Ukraine war and dwelling exchange inventories. Pandemic has restricted downstream operating rates, and aluminium social inventory dropped slowly, with a number of ingot on road. China is stepping up exports of aluminium to fill a widening supply gap in Western markets. The country shipped out 26,378 tonnes of primary aluminium in February, the highest monthly total since 2010. Imports collapsed over the first two months of the year, with the result that China turned a net exporter in February for the first time since November 2019. China's factory activity slumped at the fastest pace in two years in March, as the domestic COVID-19 resurgence and the economic fallout from the Ukraine war triggered sharp falls in production and demand, a business survey showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.04% to settled at 2473 while prices down -4.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 273.1 and below same could see a test of 270.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 281, a move above could see prices testing 285.9.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 270.1-285.9.
Aluminium dropped as aluminium production resumption accelerated.
However downside seen limited amid supply disruptions and increased production costs on the heels of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Pandemic has restricted downstream operating rates, and aluminium social inventory dropped slowly, with a number of ingot on road.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 3.45% at 1140.5 on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 13.2 Rupees to end at 1220.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.39% to settled at 1011 while prices up 38 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1120.6 and below same could see a test of 1100.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1153.1, a move above could see prices testing 1165.8.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1100.8-1165.8.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 13.2 Rupees to end at 1220.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 9256 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8873.7 Rupees gained 183.7 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.96% to settled at 7690 while prices up 32 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9002 and below same could see a test of 8748 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9514, a move above could see prices testing 9772.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8748-9772.
Turmeric gained as Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones
New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8873.7 Rupees gained 183.7 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 22465 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 619.9 Rupees to end at 21835.7 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.43% to settled at 7881 while prices up 50 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22190 and below same could see a test of 21910 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22810, a move above could see prices testing 23150.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21910-23150.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
Export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
At Jodhpur market, new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 619.9 Rupees to end at 21835.7 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.28% at 42690 on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export. The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week. At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment, similarly the stock of Binola is also low. The price of cotton yarn is continuously increasing, but there is no major demand in the domestic market and export market, due to which the Spinners' Mills Association has cut production, due to which cotton industries will benefit in the long run. Spinning mills are buying cotton at higher prices as the balance sheet of cotton is becoming tighter continuously. USDA's planting intentions report showed U.S. cotton acreage at 12.234 million acres for the 2022/2023 marketing year versus 12.007 million acres forecasted. The USDA also released weekly export sales data which showed net sales of 234,000 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022, down 24% from the previous week. In spot market, Cotton gained by 340 Rupees to end at 43710 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.16% to settled at 5460 while prices up 540 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 42270 and below same could see a test of 41860 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 42920, a move above could see prices testing 43160.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 41860-43160.
Cotton gains on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export.
The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week.
At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 340 Rupees to end at 43710 Rupees.

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