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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 47903 as the dollar eased, ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting where the focus is on the central bank’s plan for tapering its pandemic stimulus measures. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States expected China to meet its commitments under the Phase 1 trade deal signed under former President Donald Trump, but could look at eventually lowering some tariffs in a reciprocal way. Yellen told in an interview that tariffs tend to boost domestic prices and raise costs to consumers and to firms from inputs such as aluminum and steel, which meant lowering tariffs would have a "disinflationary" effect. The Treasury secretary and other officials insist that the current spike in prices in the United States is a result of supply chain bottlenecks and higher energy prices, but say inflation should ease in the second half of 2022. The Fed, which concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday, is expected to say it will start to taper bond purchases, though the focus is on clues about rates lift-off. China's gold consumption in the first nine months of 2021 rose 48.4% on the year to 813.59 tonnes, the China Gold Association said, as demand recovered from a pandemic-affected 2020. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.33% to settled at 8842 while prices up 268 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47679 and below same could see a test of 47454 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48040, a move above could see prices testing 48176.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 47454-48176.

* Gold prices ticked up as the dollar eased, ahead of a Fed meeting where the focus is on the central bank’s plan for tapering.

* Yellen says reciprocal lowering of tariffs could help ease inflation

* The Fed, is expected to say it will start to taper bond purchases, though the focus is on clues about rates lift-off.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 64791 in cautious trade as investors braced for a week full of central bank meetings in the United States, Britain and Australia. U.S. manufacturing activity slowed in October as a measure of new orders dropped to a 16-month low and factories continued to experience delays with deliveries of raw materials. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity slipped to a reading of 60.8 last month from 61.1 in September. The economy is struggling with shortages across industries as global supply chains remain clogged. Supply constraints, which were worsened by a wave of COVID-19 infections driven by the Delta variant over summer, helped to restrain economic growth to its slowest pace in over a year in the third quarter. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already acknowledged substantial further progress on inflation (price stability) and also maximum employment for QE tapering. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds its monthly policy meeting and speculation is rife that it will signal an earlier hike in cash rates after data last Wednesday showed core inflation jumped back into the RBA's 2-3 percent target for the first time since 2015. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.61% to settled at 9787 while prices up 257 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64348 and below same could see a test of 63904 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65108, a move above could see prices testing 65424.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 63904-65424.

* Silver prices edged higher in cautious trade as investors braced for a week full of central bank meetings in the United States, Britain and Australia.

* Fed Chair Powell has already acknowledged substantial further progress on inflation (and also maximum employment for QE tapering.

* U.S. manufacturing sector slows moderately in October - ISM


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 6293 as expectations of strong demand and a belief that a key producer group will not turn on the spigots too fast helped reverse initial losses caused by the release of fuel reserves by China, the world's biggest energy consumer. China has released reserves of gasoline and diesel to increase market supply and support price stability in some regions, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said. The release of the reserves was made in accordance with the recent supply and demand situation in the domestic oil product market, the administration said in a short statement. All eyes are on the Nov. 4 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, together called OPEC+, with analysts expecting them to stick to their plan to add 400,000 barrels per day of supply in December. U.S. President Joe Biden urged major G20 energy producing countries with spare capacity to boost production to ensure a stronger global economic recovery as part of a broad effort to pressure OPEC and its partners to increase oil supply. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Oct. 26, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.4% to settled at 5540 while prices up 29 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6219 and below same could see a test of 6145 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6367, a move above could see prices testing 6441.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6145-6441.

* Crude oil rose as expectations of strong demand and a belief that a key producer group will not turn on the spigots too fast.

* China releases gasoline, diesel reserves to bolster domestic supply

* U.S. drillers add oil and gas rigs for 15th month in a row



Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.74% at 389.6 on rising output, lower demand next week than previously projected and growing expectations the United States will have more than enough gas in storage for the winter heating season. That price decline occurred despite forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand this week than previously expected and a 12% jump in gas prices in Europe that should keep U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. Price gains in the United States, however, have been restrained compared with overseas markets because the United States has more than enough gas in storage for winter and ample production to meet domestic and export demand. Prices in Europe and Asia were about five times higher than in the United States. U.S. gas inventories will top 3.6 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the start of the winter heating season in November, which would be a comfortable level even though it falls shy of the five-year average of 3.7 tcf. U.S. stockpiles were currently about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. In Europe, analysts said stockpiles were about 15% below normal. Speculators have cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges over the past four weeks to their lowest since June 2020, according to CFTC. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 34.79% to settled at 5811 while prices down -19.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 380.2 and below same could see a test of 370.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 405.9, a move above could see prices testing 422.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 370.9-422.3.

* Natural gas eased on rising output, lower demand next week than previously projected

* U.S. gas inventories will top 3.6 tcf by the start of the winter heating season in November, which would be aomfortable level

* U.S. stockpiles were currently about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 746.05 as tight inventories in exchange warehouses lent support. On-warrant LME copper inventories edged up slightly to 31,745 tonnes but were still hovering near their lowest since 1998 of 14,150 tonnes hit on Oct. 14, with cash premium over the three-month contract last at $312.50 a tonne, indicating tight nearby supplies. ShFE copper stocks rose for the first time in three weeks to 49,327 tonnes, but were still down some 80% from May. China’s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in four months in October, buoyed by stronger demand, but power shortages and rising costs weighed on production, a business survey showed. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 in October -- its highest level since June. China’s economy is slowing after an impressive rebound from the pandemic-driven slump early last year, with its sprawling manufacturing sector hit by COVID-19 outbreaks, higher costs, production bottlenecks, and more recently, power rationing. A power crunch triggered by a shortage of coal, tougher emissions standards, and strong industrial demand has led to widespread curbs on electricity usage, hurting factory output. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.59% to settled at 4768 while prices up 0.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 739.5 and below same could see a test of 732.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 751, a move above could see prices testing 755.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 732.9-755.9.

* Copper prices recovered losses to end with gains as tight inventories in exchange warehouses lent support.

* On-warrant LME copper inventories edged up slightly to 31,745 tonnes but were still hovering near their lowest since 1998

* ShFE copper stocks rose for the first time in three weeks to 49,327 tonnes, but were still down some 80% from May.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 285.55 as U.S. manufacturing activity slowed in October as a measure of new orders dropped to a 16-month low and factories continued to experience delays with deliveries of raw materials. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its index of national factory activity slipped to a reading of 60.8 last month from 61.1 in September. The economy is struggling with shortages across industries as global supply chains remain clogged. The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October rebounded to 50.6, back to the expansion zone. The raw materials inventories across the whole manufacturing sector dropped amid multiple reasons, including tight supply, power rationing, short supply of raw materials, rising prices and transportation disruptions. The social inventories of zinc ingots totalled 140,700 mt as of November 1, down 2,900 mt from Friday October 29. Among them, the inventory in Shanghai dropped slightly as the downstream sector purchased on dips though there have been abundant inflows from imports. Guangzhou saw declines in inventory as the arrivals dropped significantly over the weekend. The inventory in Tianjin continued to fall as the arrivals were limited and the downstream mainly purchased on rigid demand. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.32% to settled at 1254 while prices down -1.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 282.2 and below same could see a test of 278.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 289.4, a move above could see prices testing 293.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 278.8-293.2.

* Zinc prices dropped as U.S. manufacturing activity slowed in October

* The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October rebounded to 50.6, back to the expansion zone.

* The social inventories of zinc ingots totalled 140,700 mt as of November 1, down 2,900 mt from Friday October 29.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled flat at 1521.9 as China steps up policies to boost output ahead of the winter season. The coal prices mainly dragged down the costs of NPI, which has little impact on the nickel prices. The application ratio of NPI in the stainless steel production in Q4 2021 is expected to rise by 3 percentage points to 63% from Q3. The highest ratio in 2020 was 70%. Thus the NPI supply may not see a surplus this year as its application ratio is likely to rise further. The market generally believes that the Fed will start tapering its bond purchase ahead of the Fed’s interest rate meeting, which might influence the commodity prices. NPI prices stayed in premiums over pure nickel, and the downstream stainless steel companies were not active in purchasing. However, the NPI plants were inclined to hold prices firm amid high costs. While in the new energy sector, the market has been worrying over shrinking market shares of ternary cathode precursors, and contradicting forces have been in play, coupled with a supply surplus of nickel sulphate. Asia’s manufacturing activity grew in October as emerging economies saw COVID-19 infections subside, but rising input costs, material shortages and slowing Chinese growth cloud the outlook, business surveys showed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.11% to settled at 1433 while prices up 1.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1503.9 and below same could see a test of 1486 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1534.2, a move above could see prices testing 1546.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1486-1546.6.

* Nickel prices settled flat as China steps up policies to boost output ahead of the winter season.

* NPI prices stayed in premiums over pure nickel, and the downstream stainless steel companies were not active in purchasing.

* Asian factories shake off lockdown blues, now face supply headaches


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.54% at 220.1 as the steeply falling coal prices have smashed the estimated support from aluminium costs. Concentrated arrivals of backlog cargoes after weather improved caused the social inventory to continue to grow. The recent decline in aluminium prices has incentivised downstream purchases. The easing of power rationing and production restrictions in some areas also allowed demand to recover slightly. China’s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in four months in October, buoyed by stronger demand, but power shortages and rising costs weighed on production, a business survey showed. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 in October -- its highest level since June. China’s economy is slowing after an impressive rebound from the pandemic-driven slump early last year, with its sprawling manufacturing sector hit by COVID-19 outbreaks, higher costs, production bottlenecks, and more recently, power rationing. Asia’s manufacturing activity grew in October as emerging economies saw COVID-19 infections subside, but rising input costs, material shortages and slowing Chinese growth cloud the outlook, business surveys showed. Policymakers in the region face pressures on multiple fronts as they steer their economies out of the pandemic-induced doldrums while also trying to keep prices under control amid rising commodity costs and parts shortages. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.58% to settled at 2586 while prices down -1.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 218 and below same could see a test of 215.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 223.3, a move above could see prices testing 226.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 215.8-226.4.

* Aluminium prices dropped as the steeply falling coal prices have smashed the estimated support from aluminium costs.

* Concentrated arrivals of backlog cargoes after weather improved caused the social inventory to continue to grow.

* China’s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in four months in October, buoyed by stronger demand


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 939.2 as demand from consumer side is extremely weak and industrial demand is also not picking up. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Major physical market player expects demand to sluggish for next few week as cash crunch seen in spot market, while expectations are high about demand improvement ahead of winter season starts. China is one of the biggest buyer for Indian Mentha, no much buying inquiry from China as mainland China and Hong Kong markets were shut. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Firstly damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -24.2 Rupees to end at 1047.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.44% to settled at 1030 while prices down -7.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 935.5 and below same could see a test of 931.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 944.4, a move above could see prices testing 949.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 931.8-949.6.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -24.2 Rupees to end at 1047.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak

* Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil

* Availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season.


Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 2.25% at 5495 tracking rise in overseas prices supported by signs of strong export demand. Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said. Separate sales of 222,350 tonnes of soybeans for delivery during unknown time periods also were reported. Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year on higher sowing area and likely improvement in productivity, according to industry body SOPA. In its estimate, Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said that the total area under soybean for the year 2021 is 119.984 lakh hectares. The government's area estimate is 123.677 lakh hectares. In last year's Kharif (summer sow) season, total soyabean acreage stood at 118.383 lakh hectare. China's soybean imports from Brazil in September fell 18% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as poor crush margins limited demand. The world's top buyer of soybeans brought in 5.936 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil last month, versus 7.25 million tonnes in the corresponding year-ago period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 184 Rupees to 5686 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.68% to settled at 63065 while prices up 121 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5418 and below same could see a test of 5341 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5571, a move above could see prices testing 5647.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5341-5647.

* Soyabean prices gained tracking rise in overseas prices supported by signs of strong export demand.

* Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year

* Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year on higher sowing area

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  184 Rupees to 5686 Rupees per 100 kgs.


Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.15% at 1265.3 as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output. India slashed its base import tax on crude palm oil, crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil to zero from 2.5%, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The Govt. has decided to impose stock limits on edible oils and oilseeds up to March 31, 2022. This decision has been taken to soften the prices of edible oils in the country and provide relief to consumers. The Ministry said that the stock limits will be decided by the respective state governments depending on local conditions. It has however decided to give exemption to importers and exporters subject to conditions. Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1305.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.96% to settled at 40690 while prices up 1.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1259 and below same could see a test of 1252 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1274, a move above could see prices testing 1282.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1252-1282.

* Ref soyoil prices gained as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output.

* Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected.

* India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1305.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.


palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled flat at 1127.9 as investors turned cautious ahead of data on early November output. However downside seen limited as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market. Prices are seen rising as the rainy season and coronavirus-linked labour shortage are slowing output in Malaysia. October export data improved amid tight supply worries. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia. The Indian Vegetable Oils Producers Association says it is seeing early signs of demand shifting from palm oil to soft oils after India's duty cut made soft oil more attractive. Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2021 is forecast to decline by 700,000 tonnes to 18.4 million tonnes due to a labour shortage and erratic weather conditions, state agency the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said. Neighbouring Indonesia has not faced such labour issues and has expanded its planted area by about 200,000 hectares this year, MPOC chief executive Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail said. Production in the world's largest palm oil producer is projected to rise by 2.5 million tonnes to 45.5 million tonnes, he said. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 1.6 Rupees to end at 1146.6 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.11% to settled at 4711 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1121.6 and below same could see a test of 1115.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1134.5, a move above could see prices testing 1141.2.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 1115.4-1141.2.

* Crude palm oil settled flat as investors turned cautious ahead of data on early November output.

* However downside seen limited as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market.

* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 1.6 Rupees to end at 1146.6 Rupees.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.57% at 7388 following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Due to favorable weather, production is likely to be higher in 2021-22 (July-June) season. Besides, heavy carryover stocks and slack in bulk demand are keeping prices under pressure. In the first 4 months of FY 2021-22, turmeric exports declined by 26% to 53,000 tonnes as compared to the same period last year, but almost at the same level as the 5-year average. Support is expected on the news that due to June and July floods almost 10% crop washed away so we can see 10-15 % less sowing also farmers had shown interested in other crops as prices where more. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7165.8 Rupees gained 36.65 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.69% to settled at 6525 while prices up 114 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7298 and below same could see a test of 7210 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7450, a move above could see prices testing 7514.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7210-7514.

* Turmeric gains following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.

* However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.

* The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7165.8 Rupees gained 36.65 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.14% at 15135 as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. With the forecast of normal rains in the western region during September to November, the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. Recent estimates state that cumin production has slumped by 60% in Iran’s Razavi Khorasan Province due to severe drought and unusually cold weather coupled with an early spring. Rainfall ranges 63% lower than last year this season so far. Temperatures ranged 3.1-0.4C (37.58-32.72F) lower between October 2020 and April 2021 than in the same period in 2019/2020 according to official statistics. Extensive crop losses seen, the early onset of spring in February also caused serious damage to production. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.35 Rupees to end at 14700 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.83% to settled at 4644 while prices up 170 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 15010 and below same could see a test of 14890 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15240, a move above could see prices testing 15350.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14890-15350.

* Jeera gained as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export

* However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.

* India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.35 Rupees to end at 14700 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 3.46% at 33790 amid low production, rising demand and supply constraints. Currently, raw cotton prices in various markets across the country are ruling above ₹7,000 a quintal against the MSP of ₹5,726 fixed for this year. Prices much above MSP means the CCI will not need to do any market intervention this year. Prices are moving up since the cotton balance sheet is tight and ending stocks are lower. Except China, no other country seems to have ample stocks. Cotton exports could be lower at 50 lakh bales this season (October 2021-September 2022) compared with 75-80 lakh bales last season. SIMA said the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC) had pegged the carryover stocks at 120 lakh bales and if additional 10-15 lakh bales of cotton would have been consumed or exported, ending stocks could be 105 lakh bales. SIMA said cotton production this year is estimated to be 360 lakh bales (170 kg) and if the carryover stocks are pegged at 100 lakh bales and imports at 10 lakh bales, the industry would have a total supply of 470 lakh bales. According to estimates of CAI, a trade body, the carryover stocks are estimated at 82.50 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 710 Rupees to end at 32210 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.75% to settled at 3372 while prices up 1130 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 33190 and below same could see a test of 32590 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 34110, a move above could see prices testing 34430.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 32590-34430.

* Cotton prices remained supported amid low production, rising demand and supply constraints.

* Projections of tight supplies later this season leave industry worried

* Indian cotton exports will be reduced by 35 per cent from 78 lakh bales (last year) to around 45-50 lakh bales this year

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 710 Rupees to end at 32210 Rupees.

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