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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 49298 as markets awaited fresh clues on the US economy and the likely direction of monetary policy. Limiting losses in gold, the dollar eased from an almost 16-month high as traders awaited fresh clues on Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike plans on the back of red-hot inflation. U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also pulled back, reducing non-yielding bullion’s opportunity cost. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said he expects higher inflation continuing over the next few months but warned that the U.S. central bank should not overreact to elevated inflation as it is likely to be temporary. "The math suggests we're probably going to see somewhat higher readings over the next few months before they likely start to taper off," Kashkari told CBS News' "Face the Nation" in an interview. “But my view is we also need to not overreact to some of these temporary factors, even though the pain is real,” Kashkari said in the interview. Kashkari said he expects more clarity on the economic outlook by the time the Fed ends its bond-buying program in mid-2022, and is keeping an “open mind” on the timing of any rate hikes to follow. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.14% to settled at 6869 while prices down -16 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49101 and below same could see a test of 48905 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49484, a move above could see prices testing 49671.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 48905-49671.

* Gold prices traded in a narrow range as markets awaited fresh clues on the US economy and the likely direction of monetary policy.

* Limiting losses in gold, the dollar eased from an almost 16-month high as traders awaited fresh clues on Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike plans

* U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also pulled back

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.87% at 66563 as the dollar remained near 16-month highs as decades-high inflation brought forward Fed interest rate hike expectations. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank president Neel Kashkari said that he expects higher inflation to continue over the next few months, but warned against central bank overreaction as he maintained that inflationary factors will likely prove to be temporary. Retail sales data will take the spotlight in this week’s economic calendar after consumer confidence unexpectedly fell to a decade low as inflation dented sentiment. US household inflation expectations accelerated to a record high of 5.7%, as consumers continued to suffer from rising household expenses. Tightening monetary policy now to rein in inflation could choke off the euro zone’s recovery, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said, pushing back on calls and market bets for tighter policy. With inflation already twice its 2% target and likely rising further later this year, the ECB is coming under increased pressure to abandon its ultra easy monetary policy and tackle price growth that is eroding households’ purchasing power. Speaking to European Union lawmakers, Lagarde admitted the inflation spike will be higher and longer than once thought but maintained it would fade next year, so policy action now would hit the economy just as price growth starts to moderate on its own. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.63% to settled at 8478 while prices down -581 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66186 and below same could see a test of 65810 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67054, a move above could see prices testing 67546.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 65810-67546.

* Silver dropped as the dollar remained near 16-month highs as decades-high inflation brought forward Fed interest

* Fed’s Kashkari said that he expects higher inflation to continue over the next few months

* US household inflation expectations accelerated to a record high of 5.7%, as consumers continued to suffer from rising household expenses
 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 5963 on expectations of increasing supply, while higher energy costs and rising COVID-19 cases are also seen weighing on demand. Kuwait will increase its oil production while reducing emissions in order to ensure energy security, its oil minister said. Kuwait will look at renewables, including hydrogen, as part of a "parallel path" going forward, he added. Separately, the Omani energy minister said Oman will also continue to develop fossil fuels alongside hydrogen and other sources of renewable energy. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said that he expected an oil supply surplus in the first quarter of 2022, ruling out the possibility of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and their allies – collectively known as OPEC+ – will look at fundamentals to determine the pace of output increases, Mazrouei added. AE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said that the OPEC+ commitment to increasing oil production by 400,000 bpd on a monthly basis contributes to market stability and balance, the state news agency (WAM) reported. He added that the Gulf country continues to invest in the energy sector to meet growing demand and ensure stability in global markets. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.21% to settled at 4571 while prices down -52 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5916 and below same could see a test of 5869 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6001, a move above could see prices testing 6039.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5869-6039.

* Crude oil prices fell on expectations of increasing supply, while higher energy costs and rising COVID-19 cases are also seen weighing on demand.

* Kuwait to increase oil production while reducing emissions – minister

* UAE energy minister expects oil supply surplus as early as Q1 2022
 

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.91% at 367.6 on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders said U.S. prices also gained some support from a 7% rise in European gas prices on worries about supplies from Russia. Russian gas flows through a key pipeline to Germany rose with no sign that Belarus's president had acted on his threat to cut off supplies to the European Union as winter approaches. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 96.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 94.1 bcfd in October and a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 105.1 bcfd this week to 112.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns colder and homes and businesses crank up their heaters. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv projected on Friday. U.S. exports to Canada averaged 3.0 bcfd so far in November, up from 2.1 bcfd in October, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December 2019. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.25% to settled at 6169 while prices up 6.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 356 and below same could see a test of 344.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 375, a move above could see prices testing 382.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 344.3-382.3.

* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* Prices also gained some support from a 7% rise in European gas prices on worries about supplies from Russia.

* Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 96.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November
 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 739 as the dollar held near a 16-month high on expectations of a U.S. rate hike. China's industrial output grew 3.5% in October from the same period a year ago, accelerating from a 3.1% increase in September while retail sales growth picked up, official data showed. Retail sales in October rose 4.9% compared to the same period last year. Fixed asset investment rose 6.1% in the first 10 months from the same period a year earlier, compared with the 6.2% increase tipped by a Reuters poll and the 7.3% rise in January-September. A supply squeeze in the LME warehouses system continued to ease, with the premium for cash copper over the three-month contract falling below $100 a tonne for the first time in a month. On-warrant copper stocks in LME warehouses have risen to 50,300 tonnes from 14,150 tonnes last month but are still down from more than 200,000 tonnes in August. The premium of LME cash copper over the three-month contract was last at $130 a tonne, indicating that nearby supplies were still tight albeit the tightness has eased slightly in recent sessions. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.01% to settled at 4529 while prices down -5.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 735.2 and below same could see a test of 731.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 744.9, a move above could see prices testing 750.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 731.3-750.7.

* Copper prices eased, as the dollar held near a 16-month high on expectations of a U.S. rate hike.

* China’s industrial output and retail sales grew more quickly than expected in October

* On-warrant copper stocks in LME warehouses have risen to 50,300 tonnes from 14,150 tonnes last month

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.97% at 271.75 as the smelters’ output picked up in November, and the arrivals in Tianjin and Guangdong rose from the previous sessions. However, the downstream was comparatively sluggish in purchase, leading to rising domestic inventories. The total zinc ingot inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 135,200 mt, up 3,900 mt from last Friday, containing near-term momentum of zinc prices. Traders were awaiting for fresh cues on the U.S. economy after bringing forward bets last week for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike on the back of red-hot inflation. Data showed that China's refined zinc output stood at 499,300 mt in October, down 12,600 mt or 2.46% on the month and 12.29% on the year. The output from January to October was 5.05 million mt, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%.The alloy output at domestic refined zinc smelters in survey sample registered 73,700 mt in October, up 741 mt on the month. Survey showed that the decrease in domestic refined zinc supply in October was more significant than expected, mainly because the smelters in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Gansu lowered their operating rates temporarily due to the power rationing. The production in other regions was in accordance with the SMM prediction in early October. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.7% to settled at 1676 while prices down -5.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 269.1 and below same could see a test of 266.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 275.4, a move above could see prices testing 279.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 266.5-279.1.

* Zinc prices dropped as the smelters’ output picked up in November, and the arrivals in Tianjin and Guangdong rose

* The total zinc ingot inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 135,200 mt, up 3,900 mt

* Traders were awaiting for fresh cues on the U.S. economy after bringing forward bets last week for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike
 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.46% at 1513.4 as data showed that the real estate market in China has been gloomy evidenced by the new housing starts readings. China's industrial output grew 3.5% in October from the same period a year ago, accelerating from a 3.1% increase in September while retail sales growth picked up, official data showed. Retail sales in October rose 4.9% compared to the same period last year. Fixed asset investment rose 6.1% in the first 10 months from the same period a year earlier, compared with the 6.2% increase tipped by a poll and the 7.3% rise in January-September. Momentum is faltering in the world's second-largest economy with gross domestic product growth hitting its slowest pace in a year in the third quarter. Domestic refined nickel output stood at 14,500 mt in October, up 1.48% or 212 mt month-on-month. The average operating rate stood at 66%. The actual output in October did not decrease, and the output of major refineries in Gansu was relatively stable. The output of refined nickel is expected to stand at around 14,500 mt in November. Domestic refineries’ production activities are relatively stable at the moment. The national nickel pig iron (NPI) output picked up slightly in October 2021, rising by 0.12% year-on-year to 30,720 mt in nickel content. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.31% to settled at 1168 while prices down -22.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1504 and below same could see a test of 1494.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1526.7, a move above could see prices testing 1540.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1494.7-1540.1.

* Nickel dropped as data showed that the real estate market in China has been gloomy evidenced by the new housing starts readings.

* China Oct industrial output rises 3.5% y/y

* China’s retail sales in October rose 4.9% compared to the same period last year.
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.89% at 210.05 as China's aluminium output rose in October from the prior month, official data showed ending a run of five straight monthly declines, although average daily production fell as smelters faced continued restrictions due to power shortages. The world's top producer of the metal churned out 3.13 million tonnes of primary aluminium last month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. That was up from 3.075 million tonnes in September but down 1.8% year-on-year. The United States said it would open talks with Japan that could lead to an easing of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, a longstanding irritant in trade relations between the two allies. Data showed that China's social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas dropped 6,000 mt on the week to 1.007 million mt as of November 11, mainly contributed by Nanhai, Shanghai and Gongyi. The inventory in Wuxi continued to rise. And how the blizzard in north China will impact the transportation is worth constant attention. The stocks of aluminium billet in five major consumption areas dropped 26,100 mt to 112,200 mt on November 11 from a week ago, a decrease of 18.87%. And the inventory has been falling for four straight weeks. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.37% to settled at 2768 while prices down -4.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.4 and below same could see a test of 206.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.2, a move above could see prices testing 216.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.6-216.2.

* Aluminium prices dropped as China's aluminium output rose in October from the prior month

* The United States said it would open talks with Japan that could lead to an easing of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports

* Data showed that China's social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas dropped 6,000 mt

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 940.4 on low level buying after prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak and industrial demand is also not picking up. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Major physical market player expects demand to sluggish for next few week as cash crunch seen in spot market, while expectations are high about demand improvement ahead of winter season starts. China is one of the biggest buyer for Indian Mentha, no much buying inquiry from China as mainland China and Hong Kong markets were shut. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Firstly damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -0.5 Rupees to end at 1085.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.99% to settled at 938 while prices up 7.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 936 and below same could see a test of 931.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 943.5, a move above could see prices testing 946.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 931.5-946.5.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -0.5 Rupees to end at 1085.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak

* Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil

* Availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 5.86% at 5891 due to rise in overseas prices amid soaring demand for soymeal, amid transportation bottlenecks and labour shortages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 256,930 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations. The announcement followed rumors this week that China was buying U.S. soybeans. The USDA also reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended Nov. 4 at 1.289 million tonnes, in line with trade expectations for 950,000 to 1.8 million tonnes. China booked 939,300 tonnes and shipped 2.34 million tonnes. There was higher demand from oil mills amid low arrivals. The government is very cautious about reviewing the implementation of stock limits on oilseeds and edible oils, which keep prices in check in the country. According to SEA, soymeal exports declined sharply to 5,831 tonnes in September this year from 68,576 tonnes in the same period a year ago. Support seen after smaller-than-expected soybean harvests in the major production states of Indiana, Iowa, Kansas and Ohio sparked a surprise cut to the U.S. harvest outlook. Despite the cut to the soybean harvest view, the domestic ending stocks projection grew because of weakening export demand for U.S. supplies. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 230 Rupees to 5875 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.75% to settled at 76615 while prices up 326 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5714 and below same could see a test of 5536 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5984, a move above could see prices testing 6076.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5536-6076.

* Soyabean gained due to rise in overseas prices amid soaring demand for soymeal, amid transportation bottlenecks and labour shortages.

* USDA confirmed private sales of 256,930 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations.

* Weekly U.S. soymeal export sales, at 278,000 tonnes, topped a range of trade expectations for 100,000 to 250,000 tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  230 Rupees to 5875 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 1203.6 as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output. India slashed its base import tax on crude palm oil, crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil to zero from 2.5%, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The Govt. has decided to impose stock limits on edible oils and oilseeds up to March 31, 2022. This decision has been taken to soften the prices of edible oils in the country and provide relief to consumers. The Ministry said that the stock limits will be decided by the respective state governments depending on local conditions. It has however decided to give exemption to importers and exporters subject to conditions. Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1234.05 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.98% to settled at 36700 while prices up 7.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1197 and below same could see a test of 1191 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1208, a move above could see prices testing 1213.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1191-1213.

* Ref soyoil prices seen supported as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output.

* Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected.

* India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1234.05 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 1105.2 as investors weighed worries of slowing November production against weaker demand. Output in the world's second-largest palm oil producer is also expected to slow as the peak production season has ended, while the monsoon brings heavy rainfall. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil maker, exported 2.89 million tonnes of the vegetable oil in September, including refined products, data from Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. Exports were 4.7% higher than a year earlier, but slipped from 4.27 million tonnes in August. Indonesia produced 4.57 million tonnes of palm oil in September and the domestic stock stood at 3.65 million tonnes by the end of the month, the data showed. October export data improved amid tight supply worries. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia. The Indian Vegetable Oils Producers Association says it is seeing early signs of demand shifting from palm oil to soft oils after India's duty cut made soft oil more attractive. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -0.5 Rupees to end at 1114.1 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.96% to settled at 4748 while prices up 2.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1097.6 and below same could see a test of 1089.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1110, a move above could see prices testing 1114.7.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 1089.9-1114.7.

* Crude palm oil gains as investors weighed worries of slowing November production against weaker demand.

* Malaysia's Nov 1 – 15 palm oil exports rise 26.6 pct – ITS

* Indonesia's Sept palm oil exports at 2.89 mln tonnes

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -0.5 Rupees to end at 1114.1 Rupees.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.7% at 7532 supported by less area in Telangana and unseasonal rains, also expectations of better export demand supporting the prices. However upside seen limitet amid poor demand for old stocks as traders wait for the new season of turmeric. Turmeric exports in the first 5 months (April-August) of FY 2021-22 declined by 25% to 64,600 tonnes as compared to the same period last year, but almost at the same level as the 5-year average. There were also reports of export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Due to favorable weather, production is likely to be higher in 2021-22 (July-June) season. Besides, heavy carryover stocks and slack in bulk demand are keeping prices under pressure. In the first 4 months of FY 2021-22, turmeric exports declined by 26% to 53,000 tonnes as compared to the same period last year, but almost at the same level as the 5-year average. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7189.75 Rupees gained 47.25 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.82% to settled at 9865 while prices up 126 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7440 and below same could see a test of 7346 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7608, a move above could see prices testing 7682.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7346-7682.

* Turmeric gained supported by less area in Telangana and unseasonal rains, also expectations of better export demand supporting the prices.

* However upside seen limited amid poor demand for old stocks as traders wait for the new season of turmeric.

* Turmeric exports in the first 5 months (April-August) of FY 2021-22 declined by 25% to 64,600 tonnes as compared to the same period last year.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7189.75 Rupees gained 47.25 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.43% at 16265 as domestic festive demand is now picking up also the export inquiries to support price. However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. Jeera production in Syria and Turkey was limited due to bad weather, which increases demand for Indian cumin. As of now Exports of Jeera for Apr-Aug was down by 12% Y/Y at 1.24 lakh tonnes but expected improve in coming months as Rupee weakness will support exports. During last two months, the prices were higher compared to last year despite sufficient stocks with traders. Sowing can see drop as farmers preferred to have other crop against Jeera. Weather in key sowing area will be crucial in next few months. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 488.75 Rupees to end at 15920 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.27% to settled at 10035 while prices up 230 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 16080 and below same could see a test of 15890 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 16440, a move above could see prices testing 16610.

Trading Ideas:

* Jera trading range for the day is 15890-16610.

* Jeera gains as domestic emand is now picking up also the export inquiries to support price.

* However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.

* India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 488.75 Rupees to end at 15920 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.85% at 31760 as China will start a new round of sales from its cotton reserves, with a total 600,000 tonnes of imported and domestic cotton to be sold off in daily auctions, according to an official notice. It is the second batch of cotton to be released from reserves this year and is designed to better meet demand for the fibre from spinning companies. However downside seen limited bolstered by strong demand from both the domestic textile sector and export markets over the last year, and high global prices. Both production estimates for the 2021/22 crop year and ending stocks in the U.S. were largely unchanged at 18.20 million bales and 3.40 million bales respectively, the USDA said in its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. "The global cotton balance sheet for 2021/22 includes higher production and consumption, and slightly lower ending stocks," the USDA said. India’s cotton production in 2021-22 season is likely to be 360.13 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 382.64 lakh running bales of 160 kg each), which is more by 7.13 lakh bales than the previous season’s crop of 353 lakh bales, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has said in its first estimate for the new season beginning October 1, 2021. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -360 Rupees to end at 32180 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12% to settled at 2485 while prices down -600 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31450 and below same could see a test of 31130 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32200, a move above could see prices testing 32630.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 31130-32630.

* Cotton dropped China starts new round of cotton sales to boost supply

* However downside seen limited amid strong demand from both the domestic textile sector and export markets, and high global prices.

* Both production estimates for the 2021/22 crop year and ending stocks were largely unchanged at 18.20 million bales and 3.40 million bales respectively

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -360 Rupees to end at 32180 Rupees.

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