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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 47774 as the U.S. dollar strengthened as investors await U.S. inflation data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual Congressional testimony for more clues on the timeline for tapering asset purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Concerns over the rapid rise of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and the slow pace of vaccinations offered some respite to the precious metal. On the COVID-19 front, finance ministers from the Group of 20 countries warned over the weekend that the global economic growth is at risk from the spike of new coronavirus variants and the low vaccine availability in developing countries.

The European Central Bank's revamped strategy is aimed at not allowing low inflation to become entrenched in the future, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said. "Low inflation has become entrenched over the past few years and our revamped strategy says that we will not allow this to happen in the future," Kazimir said. "To achieve that also means, that inflation may sometimes moderately and temporarily be above 2 percent."

Dealers were charging a premium of up to $1.5 an ounce over official domestic prices inclusive of the 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, down from last week's premium of $3. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.71% to settled at 8508 while prices down -149 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47544 and below same could see a test of 47314 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47937, a move above could see prices testing 48100.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47314-48100.
* Gold prices eased as the U.S. dollar strengthened as investors await U.S. inflation data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual Congressional testimony
* Concerns over the rapid rise of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and the slow pace of vaccinations offered some respite to the precious metal.
* ECB's Kazimir says revamped strategy will not allow entrenched low inflation.

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 69375 as concerns about the pandemic encouraged investors to seek a safe haven, and as they awaited more clues about the global economic recovery. With markets hyper-sensitive to any talk of early tapering, U.S. inflation data on Tuesday will be closely watched ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday.

Reports from around the globe of surging infections of the Delta coronavirus variant also hurt investors' appetite for riskier assets. Any signs that inflation could be more persistent than previously thought could fan expectations that the Fed may exit from current pandemic-era stimulus earlier, supporting the dollar against other major currencies. Shortages of materials and "difficulties in hiring" are holding back the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and have driven a "transitory" bout of inflation, the Federal Reserve said.

"Progress on vaccinations has led to a reopening of the economy and strong economic growth," the U.S. central bank said in its semiannual report to Congress on the state of the economy. However, "shortages of material inputs and difficulties in hiring have held down activity in a number of industries." German 10-year Bund yield and other major euro zone government bonds, such as those of France and the Netherlands, also saw yields tick up.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.84% to settled at 10538 while prices up 78 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68829 and below same could see a test of 68284 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69740, a move above could see prices testing 70106.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68284-70106.
* Silver remained supported as concerns about the pandemic encouraged investors to seek a safe haven
* Reports from around the globe of surging infections of the Delta coronavirus variant also hurt investors' appetite for riskier assets.
* Fed says shortages of materials, hiring problems holding back recovery.

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.01% at 5498 as investors fretted about the spread of Delta variant across most regions of the world and slow pace of vaccinations. Leaders of the G20 nations admitted over the weekend that COVID-19 variants could threaten the economic recovery from the pandemic. OPEC+ is yet to make progress closing divisions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that last week prevented a deal to raise oil output, making another policy meeting this week less likely, OPEC+ sources said. Russia has been working behind the scenes to bring Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back to the table to find a path to agreement, sources told.

The spat forced the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, known as OPEC+, to abandon talks on boosting production after days of negotiations. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden did not discuss OPEC+ or global oil prices during an hour-long phone call, the Kremlin said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak remained Moscow's envoy at OPEC+ and that no other contacts were planned.

Output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, or OPEC+, collapsed last Monday with no deal to boost production agreed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.2% to settled at 4623 while prices down -56 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5452 and below same could see a test of 5406 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5554, a move above could see prices testing 5610.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5406-5610.
* Crude oil dropped as investors fretted about the spread of Delta variant across most regions of the world and slow pace of vaccinations.
* OPEC+ yet to make progress in resolving impasse
* Putin, Biden did not discuss OPEC+ during last week's call, says Kremlin

 

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 278.1 as rising global gas prices offset forecasts for slightly less hot weather and lower air conditioning demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. speculators last week boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a sixth week in a row to their highest since May 2017 on expectations U.S. exports would reach fresh record highs as global gas prices soar with low stockpiles around the world.

The amount of gas in U.S. storage for the winter of 2021-2022 was almost 7% below the five-year (2016-2020) normal for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 91.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia earlier in the month. That compares with an average of 92.2 bcfd in June and an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 91.9 bcfd this week to 94.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally hotter.

Those forecasts, however, were lower than Refinitiv projected on Friday. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.25% to settled at 15830 while prices up 2.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 272.2 and below same could see a test of 266.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 282.5, a move above could see prices testing 286.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 266.2-286.8.
* Natural gas edged up as rising global gas prices offset forecasts for slightly less hot weather and lower air conditioning demand
* U.S. speculators last week boosted their net long futures and options positions for a sixth week in a row to their highest since May 2017
* U.S. exports would reach fresh record highs as global gas prices soar with low stockpiles around the world.

 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.4% at 728.8 on concerns about demand prospects in top consumer China where economic recovery appeared to be slowing, while rising inventories reinforced negative sentiment. Chinese banks extended 2.12 trillion yuan ($327 billion) in new yuan loans in June, up from 1.5 trillion yuan in May, while total social financing (TSF), a widely watched measure in metals markets, rose to 3.67 trillion yuan from 1.92 trillion yuan.

Copper stocks in LME registered warehouses at 219,175 tonnes have over the last three weeks climbed nearly 40%. Ample supplies on the LME market are behind the discount for the cash over the three-month contract. Friday's close at $37.30 a tonne was the highest since August 2018. China's major copper smelters lowered production in June by 3.6% from the previous month due to seasonal maintenance. January-June production from the group came in at 4.61 million tonnes, Antaike said, up 12.4% from a coronavirus-affected first half of 2020.

Although producers including Jinchuan Group plan maintenance in July, overall cathode output is set to increase to around 780,000 tonnes this month as smelters cash in on rising treatment charges and sulphuric acid prices. Spot treatment charges in China, which go up when demand for raw material copper concentrate falls, hit a near six-month high after a smelter in Shandong suffered an equipment failure.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.29% to settled at 3669 while prices down -2.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 724.5 and below same could see a test of 720.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 731.2, a move above could see prices testing 733.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 720.3-733.7.
* Copper prices slipped on concerns about demand prospects in top consumer China where economic recovery appeared to be slowing
* Copper stocks in LME registered warehouses at 219,175 tonnes have over the last three weeks climbed nearly 40%.
* China’s trade data, industrial production and GDP data due this week will be watched closely for demand prospects.

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 240.75 as refined zinc output continued to increase month on month in June, and social inventories continued to pile up in the off-season of consumption. The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5-percentage-point RRR cut, releasing trillions of funds, and the liquidity was loose. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei increased 1,700 mt from last Friday July 9 to 122,000 mt as of Monday July 12.

The stocks were up 6,200 mt from July 5. Smelters in the survey sample produced 78,600 mt of zinc alloy in June, down 500 mt from the previous month. Survey showed that the increase in domestic refined zinc supply in June was higher than expected. Power curtailments in Yunnan area ended around June 10, and enterprises basically returned to normal production. In addition, the regular maintenance of refineries in Gansu also accounted for the decrease in output.

The increase in output was mainly due to the resumption of production after the maintenance of the refineries, and the unexpected increase was due to the faster production increase of the refineries in Shaanxi. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.95% to settled at 1735 while prices down -1.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 239.9 and below same could see a test of 239 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 241.8, a move above could see prices testing 242.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 239-242.8.
* Zinc prices dropped as refined zinc output continued to increase month on month in June, and social inventories continued to pile up
* Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai increased 1,700 mt
* The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5-percentage-point RRR cut, releasing trillions of funds, and the liquidity was loose.

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.38% at 1398.9 as inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas increased 9,000 mt from a week ago and stood at 11,200 mt as of July 9. Nearly 1,000 mt of nickel plates from LME warehouse were moved into bonded warehouse this week, but the import window was nearly opened due to the surge of SHFE nickel. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 282,000 wmt from July 2 to 5.51 million wmt as of July 9, showed data.

Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports increased 152,000 wmt during the same period to 3.57 million wmt. Worries about shortages have created a premium for the cash over the three month LME contract. The premium is due to many factors including tight exchange stocks Russia's planned export tax on nickel and a strike at Vale's Sudbury operation in Canada. The national refined nickel output increased 1,833 mt or 14.75% month on month to 14,300 mt in June, and operating rates stood at 65%.

Output of refined nickel is expected to stand at 13,500 mt in July 2021, mainly because Gansu smelter will return the production to the normal level, and the output may drop by nearly 1,000 mt. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.57% to settled at 2429 while prices down -5.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1386.4 and below same could see a test of 1373.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1407.7, a move above could see prices testing 1416.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1373.9-1416.5.
* Nickel prices dropped as inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas increased 9,000 mt
* Worries about shortages have created a premium for the cash over the three month LME contract.
* The premium is due to many factors including tight exchange stocks Russia's planned export tax on nickel and a strike at Vale's Sudbury operation in Canada.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 198.45 as social inventories of aluminum ingots continued to decrease, but the consumption of profiles in construction and other sectors weakened, and the aluminium billet stocks continued to pile up. The European Central Bank said that it would continue to maintain a loose monetary policy in the future, and the People's Bank of China decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage point on July 15, 2021, thus maintaining ample liquidity worldwide.

Domestic aluminium output rose slowly in July, and the overall fundamentals showed a decline in aluminium price support. China produced 3.22 million mt of aluminium in June, up 7.09% on the year. The daily output averaged 107,200 mt, up 300 mt/day on the month. The output totalled 19.47 million mt from January to June, an increase of 8.1% on the year. The production resumption of aluminium in Yunnan was slow in June, and the production in Gansu and Henan gradually recovered.

At the same time, some places in Guizhou saw slight reduction in aluminium production. China's operating aluminium capacity stood at 38.88 million mt/year in early July, while existing capacity stood at 43.8 million mt/year, leaving the operating rate at 88.8%. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.1% to settled at 2516 while prices up 0.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.2 and below same could see a test of 195.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.6, a move above could see prices testing 200.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 195.8-200.6.
* Aluminium prices remained supported as social inventories of aluminum ingots continued to decrease.
* But the consumption of profiles in construction and other sectors weakened, and the aluminium billet stocks continued to pile up.
* Pboc decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage point on July 15, 2021, thus maintaining ample liquidity worldwide.

 

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 998.3 on some low level after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Support also seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started.

However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field.

Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 7.8 Rupees to end at 1089.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.73% to settled at 940 while prices up 5.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 987.8 and below same could see a test of 977.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1005.9, a move above could see prices testing 1013.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 977.3-1013.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 7.8 Rupees to end at 1089.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on some low level after prices dropped in last some session as average yield in Barabanki is improved
* Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 3.68% at 7490 as planting of overall oilseeds, including soybean was at 11.2 million hectares, down from 12.6 million hectares the previous year. A “break” in the monsoon has affected Kharif sowing in many parts of the country this year. However, area under soybean planting is likely to increase by 5-7% across the country this kharif season despite speculation in the market over the shortage of seeds.

Farmers, however, are keeping their fingers crossed due to the break in monsoon and hope for a revival of the monsoon to ensure a good crop. In the 2020 kharif season, soybean cultivation took place on 120 lakh hectares and the yield was about 105 lakh tonne. Record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said.

Several soybean farmers in Madhya Pradesh have said that the sowing of the kharif crop has not even begun in 60% area even two months after the beginning of the season due to shortage of certified seeds, provided by the government. In Maharashtra, the government has claimed that there was no shortage of soybean seeds and sowing was in full swing.

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 110 Rupees to 7654 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.48% to settled at 35570 while prices up 266 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7296 and below same could see a test of 7101 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7605, a move above could see prices testing 7719.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7101-7719.
* Soyabean gained as planting of overall oilseeds, including soybean was at 11.2 mln hec, down from 12.6 mln hec the previous year.
* There has been shortage of certified seeds and they have been selling at high prices, but farmers have prepared their own seeds.
* In Maharashtra, the government has claimed that there was no shortage of soybean seeds and sowing was in full swing.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  110 Rupees to 7654 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Soya oil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.84% at 1309 as China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report.

Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market.

India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1324 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.67% to settled at 36770 while prices up 23.6 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1293 and below same could see a test of 1278 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1317, a move above could see prices testing 1326.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1278-1326.
* Ref soyoil prices gained as China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1324 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.15% at 1046.2 tracking firmness in Malaysian prices as an uptick in July 1-10 exports aided sentiment. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-10 rose between 2% and 4% from the same period in June, cargo surveyors said, beating market expectations of a decline in shipments.

Malaysia's end-June palm oil stocks rose 2.82% from the previous month to 1.61 million tonnes, data from industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed. Crude palm oil production gained 2.21% from May to 1.61 million tonnes, while palm oil exports jumped 11.84% to 1.42 million tonnes, MPOB said. India's demand for Malaysian crude palm oil and Indonesian palm olein has been strong, but it is likely to subside at current price levels and the market will reverse very quickly.

Indian buyers have contracted up to 70,000 tonnes of refined bleached deodorized palm oil, mostly from Indonesia, to be shipped in July and August. Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end of June likely hit a nine-month high as production jumped, although a rebound in exports kept supply tight. India declared that the import of refined palm oil is amended from 'Restricted' to 'Free', allowing imports of the product for six months. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 10.8 Rupees to end at 1051 Rupees.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.87% to settled at 5151 while prices up 11.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1035.7 and below same could see a test of 1025.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1052.3, a move above could see prices testing 1058.3.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1025.1-1058.3.
* Crude palm oil gains tracking firmness in Malaysian prices as an uptick in July 1-10 exports aided sentiment.
* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-10 rose between 2% and 4% from the same period in June, cargo surveyors said
* Malaysia end June palm oil stocks rose 2.8% to 1.61 mln T - MPOB
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 10.8 Rupees to end at 1051 Rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.19% at 6964 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018.

In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 103 Rupees to end at 7222 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.85% to settled at 48500 while prices up 82 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6907 and below same could see a test of 6851 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7015, a move above could see prices testing 7067.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6851-7067.
* Mustard seed prices gained tracking firmness in overseas prices as drought continued across the Canadian Prairies, threatening crop yields.
* The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 103 Rupees to end at 7222 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.1% at 7184 as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.

In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic.

Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7237.5 Rupees dropped -64.4 Rupees.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.97% to settled at 10495 while prices down -80 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7134 and below same could see a test of 7084 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7234, a move above could see prices testing 7284.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7084-7284.
* Turmeric dropped as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices.
* However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7237.5 Rupees dropped -64.4 Rupees.

 

Jeera​

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 13195 amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets. Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions. In the benchmark market Unjha, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) arrived yesterday as against 10,000 bags.

As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market.

However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -38.15 Rupees to end at 13475 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.54% to settled at while prices down -55 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13170 and below same could see a test of 13140 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13240, a move above could see prices testing 13280.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13140-13280.
* Jeera settled down amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying
* Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -38.15 Rupees to end at 13475 Rupees per 100 kg.​​​​​​
 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 25190 pared gains on profit booking after seen supported earlier as pink bollworm attack on cotton crop has been reported in some areas in Bathinda district. Farmers are claiming damage on the cotton sown earlier. The pink bollworm attack has been reported in Talwandi Sabo, Sangat and Rama blocks along with few villages adjoining Bathinda city.

Gujarat’s cotton acreage is likely to increase 10% this kharif season with farmers getting high prices for the natural fibre last year. Currently, the area under cotton cultivation in the state has increased to 16.50 lakh hectares as on July 5, compared to 15.72 lakh hectares during the same period last year.

“At present, the area under cotton cultivation has increased by about 7% when compared with the same period last year,” said Arvind Pan, president, Saurashtra Cotton Ginners Association (SCGA). CAI demand for withdrawal of 10 per cent customs duty on cotton imports. Trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has expressed concerns of India losing its competitiveness to China, Pakistan and Bangladesh in the international market.

With 10 per cent customs duty on cotton varieties including extra-long staple (ELS), the export-oriented garments and cotton-madeups become costlier thereby giving an edge to the close competitors. In spot market, Cotton gained by 40 Rupees to end at 25280 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.35% to settled at 4795 while prices down -20 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25030 and below same could see a test of 24870 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25360, a move above could see prices testing 25530.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 24870-25530.
* Cotton pared gains on profit booking after seen supported earlier as farmers in Punjab seen worried as pink bollworm attacks cotton crop.
* Gujarat’s cotton acreage may grow 10%
* Currently, the area under cotton cultivation in the state has increased to 16.50 lakh hectares
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 40 Rupees to end at 25280 Rupees.

 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -2.19% at 4814 as the Govt imposed stock limits on all pulses except moong for wholesalers, retailers, millers and importers, to bring down the prices of these items, which have risen in retail markets since March. According to the order issued by the food ministry, valid until October 31, wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety. The stock limit for retailers has been fixed at 5 tonne.

For millers, the limit is total production during last three months or 25% of annual installed capacity, whichever is higher. Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety (same as for wholesalers), for stocks held/imported before 15th May. However, this same stock limit will be applicable on importers after 45 days from date of customs clearance for stocks imported after May 15.

Besides, in order to enhance domestic availability, ban on import of tur, urad and moong was lifted for the period between May 15 and October 31. The government also signed a 5-year agreement with Myanmar for annual import of 2.5 lakh tonne of urad and 1 lakh tonne of tur. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -59.6 Rupees to end at 4740.4 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.74% to settled at 113550 while prices down -108 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4774 and below same could see a test of 4733 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4884, a move above could see prices testing 4953.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4733-4953.
* Chana dropped as the Govt imposed stock limits on all pulses except moong
* Wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety.
* Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -59.6 Rupees to end at 4740.4 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

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