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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 46925 after U.S. inflation data tempered bets for early monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. Two Fed officials warned that inflation could rise more than policymakers expected in the near term. They spoke after Fed chief Jerome Powell said inflation would not be the only factor determining interest rate decisions. Gold has benefited from the lower-than-expected inflation print as concerns at the margin have eased over a sooner-than-expected timetable for tapering. Data earlier showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was below expectations in May. The physical gold market in top consumer China flipped into a premium as prices eased although activity was still subdued, while buyers in India held off for a sharper dip in rates as more jewellers opened up. Chinese dealers charged premiums of $3-$6 an ounce over global benchmark spot prices, versus discounts of $5 late last week. Dealers offered discounts of up to $12 an ounce, the highest since mid-September 2020, against official domestic prices. A price dip toward the end of last week triggered activity, amid easing restrictions in Singapore, with "more retail clients appearing in our physical shop than previously. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.33% to settled at 10703 while prices up 55 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46769 and below same could see a test of 46613 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47147, a move above could see prices testing 47369.

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 46613-47369.

* Gold rose after U.S. inflation data tempered bets for early monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

*  Two Fed officials warned that inflation could rise more than policymakers expected in the near term.

*  Gold has benefited from the lower-than-expected inflation print as concerns at the margin have eased over a sooner-than-expected timetable for tapering.

Silver           

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 67873 as the dollar dipped as U.S. senators reached an agreement on the infrastructure spending bill worth $579 billion, helping underpin appetite for riskier currencies. Biden's infrastructure agreement proposes spending to rebuild roads, bridges and other traditional infrastructure over the next five years. The bipartisan deal is expected to move through Congress, along with a separate bill on infrastructure plan backed by Democrats. Data showed a fall in U.S. jobless claims and a surge in durable goods orders, reflecting the continued economic recovery. After mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials on interest rate hikes, investors now await report on personal income and spending, which includes personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation for new clues on rate hike timing. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said he expects recent high inflation readings will not last and Americans will return to the labor market in large numbers in the fall. U.S. consumer spending paused in May as shortages weighed on motor vehicle purchases, but the supply constraints and increased demand for services helped to boost inflation, with the Federal Reserve's main inflation measure posting its biggest annual increase since 1992. The Commerce Department said that the unchanged reading in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, followed an upwardly revised 0.9% jump in April. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.06% to settled at 6838 while prices up 140 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67587 and below same could see a test of 67300 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68330, a move above could see prices testing 68786.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 67300-68786.

* Silver gained as the dollar dipped as U.S. senators reached an agreement on the infrastructure spending bill worth $579 billion.

* Fed’s Kashkari said he expects recent high inflation readings will not last and Americans will return to the labor market in large numbers in the fall.

*  U.S. consumer spending paused in May as shortages weighed on motor vehicle purchases

Crude oil           

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.21% at 5503 on expectations demand growth will outstrip supply and OPEC+ producers will be cautious in returning more crude to the market from August. Also boosting oil prices was a decline in the dollar after data showed that U.S. consumer spending was flat in May, while producer price inflation came in below expectations. Underlying sentiment remained positive after U.S. President Biden and a group of senators agreed on a $1 trillion infrastructure plan. Oil prices also remain supported by rising hopes of better demand at the onset of the summer driving season, as vaccination campaigns against the COVID-19 pandemic gather pace around the world. The OPEC+ alliance meets on July 1 to discuss further easing of their output cuts from August. The group had previously agreed to gently raise production until the end of July. On the demand side, the key factors OPEC+ will have to consider are strong growth in the United States, Europe and China, bolstered by vaccine rollouts and economies reopening, according to analysts who said this was countered by rising COVID-19 cases and outbreaks in other places. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 22.07% to settled at 8733 while prices up 66 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5439 and below same could see a test of 5376 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5539, a move above could see prices testing 5576.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5376-5576.

* Crude oil gained on expectations demand growth will outstrip supply and OPEC+ producers will be cautious in returning more crude to the market from August.

* Oil prices also remain supported by rising hopes of better demand at the onset of the summer driving season

* U.S. infrastructure bill brightens demand outlook -analysts

Nat.Gas         

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.07% at 261.2 on forecasts for hotter weather and higher air conditioning and export demand next week than previously expected. Traders noted prices were up even though the weather was expected to turn milder in two weeks, which should cut air conditioning demand a bit. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 87.9 bcfd this week to 93.7 bcfd next week with the coming of hotter weather before sliding to 92.4 bcfd in two weeks as temperatures ease. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants has fallen to 9.9 bcfd so far in June due mostly to short-term maintenance at Gulf Coast facilities and the pipelines that supply them with fuel. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico have averaged 6.8 bcfd so far in June, putting them on track to top May's 6.2-bcfd record. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.41% to settled at 22338 while prices up 5.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 256.6 and below same could see a test of 252.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 263.7, a move above could see prices testing 266.3.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 252.1-266.3.

* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for hotter weather and higher air conditioning and export demand next week than previously expected.

* Traders noted prices were up even though the weather was expected to turn milder in two weeks, which should cut air conditioning demand a bit.

* EIA said utilities added 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 18.

Copper           

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.58% at 721.65 paring gains as stocks of copper in Shanghai bonded areas increased on larger arrivals for the second consecutive week. Data showed that the stocks rose 500 mt from the prior week to 429,800 mt as of Friday June 25. The growth rate narrowed significantly. U.S. President Joe Biden embraced a bipartisan Senate infrastructure deal valued at $1.2 trillion over eight years, which helped reinforce expectations of stronger demand. Prices of the metal used in the power and construction industries are up about 5% in the week week, partly due to perceptions that there would be no imminent tightening of monetary policy in the United States. China's top copper smelters set their floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for the third quarter at $55 per tonne and 5.5 cents per lb after a meeting in the city of Tongling, two sources with knowledge of the matter said. The global world refined copper market showed a 19,000 tonnes deficit in March, compared with a 108,000 tonnes surplus in February, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 3 months of the year, the market was in a 129,000 tonnes surplus compared with a 154,000 tonnes surplus in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.37% to settled at 4163 while prices down -4.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 717 and below same could see a test of 712.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 726.8, a move above could see prices testing 731.8.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 712.2-731.8.

* Copper prices dropped paring gains as stocks of copper in Shanghai bonded areas increased on larger arrivals for the second consecutive week.

* Copper market in 19,000 tonnes deficit in Mar 2021 – ICSG

*  China May copper exports hit 14-month peak as traders cash in on LME price jump

Zinc           

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.59% at 234.45 on profit booking after price seen supported as Biden stated that the two parties agreed on the infrastructure plan, and the US initial unemployment claims declined. Investors monitored the prospect of a steady economic rebound and fears of a tapering of monetary stimulus. S&P Global Ratings said that it affirmed China’s ratings at A+/A-1 with a stable outlook, saying the country was likely to maintain above-average economic growth relative to other middle-income economies in the next few years. The euro zone is recovering faster than earlier expected, but still needs continued fiscal and monetary support so that the pandemic does not leave scars, European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde told European Union leaders. “Euro area GDP is recovering and will return to pre-pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2022, one quarter earlier than expected in spring,” Lagarde told. The global zinc market moved into a deficit of 26,900 tonnes in April from a revised surplus of 700 tonnes the previous month, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a surplus of 2,100 tonnes in March. During the first four months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed a surplus of 31,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 256,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.73% to settled at 1548 while prices down -1.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 233.5 and below same could see a test of 232.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 236.3, a move above could see prices testing 238.  

Trading Ideas:            

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 232.4-238.

* Zinc dropped on profit booking after price seen supported as Biden stated that the two parties agreed on the infrastructure plan

* Global zinc market swings to deficit of 26,900 T in April – ILZSG

*  China May zinc output +1.2% y/y at 527,000 tonnes - stats bureau

Nickel           

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 1381.7 as Russian Economy Minister Reshetnikov’s proposal to impose tariffs on copper and nickel starting from August 1. Indonesia is considering a plan to restrict construction of smelters producing nickel pig iron or ferronickel to optimize its limited nickel ore reserves for higher-value products, a government official said. Nickel rose amid strong Chinese demand and near record-low inventories in warehouses tracked by ShFE. S&P Global Ratings said that it affirmed China’s ratings at A+/A-1 with a stable outlook, saying the country was likely to maintain above-average economic growth relative to other middle-income economies in the next few years. "This is in part due to its effective containment of the COVID-19 pandemic and rapid vaccine rollout," S&P said in a note. "We expect real GDP growth to come in at 8.3% this year, before moderating to about 5% from 2022-2024," it added. The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 15,600 tonnes in April from a shortfall of 17,100 tonnes in March, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first four months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 34,900 tonnes compared with a 48,000 tonnes surplus in the same period last year, Lisbon-based INSG added. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.53% to settled at 2444 while prices up 7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1371.6 and below same could see a test of 1361.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1387.6, a move above could see prices testing 1393.6.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1361.6-1393.6.

* Nickel prices gained as Russian Economy Minister Reshetnikov’s proposal to impose tariffs on nickel starting from August 1.

* S&P affirms China ratings, says China to maintain robust GDP growth

* Global nickel deficit narrows slightly in April

Aluminium           

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.22% at 195.5 after U.S. President Joe Biden embraced a bipartisan Senate infrastructure deal valued at $1.2 trillion over eight years, which helped reinforce expectations of stronger demand. The euro zone is recovering faster than earlier expected, but still needs continued fiscal and monetary support so that the pandemic does not leave scars, European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde told European Union leaders. “Euro area GDP is recovering and will return to pre-pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2022, one quarter earlier than expected in spring,” Lagarde told. Data such as the number of durable goods and jobless claims in the US performed well in line with expectations, and the fluctuation of the US index was slight. In addition, the impact was gradually digested by the market due to the first batch of metal reserves. The seasonal off-season of fundamental consumption is coming, and the gradual weakening of consumption will suppress the decrease of stocks continuously, and the inflection point will appear in July. Global primary aluminium output rose to 5.744 million tonnes in May from revised 5.543 million tonnes in April, data from IAI showed. China's alumina output rose 11.2% from a year earlier to 6.6 million tonnes in May, the highest on record, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.23% to settled at 2747 while prices up 2.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 193.7 and below same could see a test of 191.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.7, a move above could see prices testing 197.8.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 191.8-197.8.

* Aluminium gains after U.S. President Joe Biden embraced a bipartisan Senate infrastructure deal valued at $1.2 trillion over eight years

* Global aluminium output rises to 5.744 mln T in May – IAI

* China May alumina output rose 11.2% year-on-year to 6.6 million tonnes - stats bureau

Mentha oil           

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 3.19% at 1123 due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 8.3 Rupees to end at 1154.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.66% to settled at 445 while prices up 34.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1085.5 and below same could see a test of 1048 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1157, a move above could see prices testing 1191.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1048-1191.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 8.3 Rupees to end at 1154.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices gained due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.

* The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field.

* With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started.

Soyabean           

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 6980 paring gains seen earlier as slow monsoon progress and lesser availability of certified soyabean seeds may impact kharif sowing of the oilseed in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, top two producers of the crop in the country. “There is lesser availability of certified seeds this year,” D N Pathak, executive director of leading trade body Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA), told. “The soyabean crop last year was damaged due to excessive rains, high temperature and pest attack, for which the quality of seeds with the farmers maybe not so good.” Though sowing has started in some parts of Madhya Pradesh it is yet to pick up in many places due to lesser rains, Pathak said. Sowing of soyabean generally gets completed by the first week of July. “We still have time. If it rains, then sowing will pick up faster,” he said. Rains have not picked up in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan for sowing to gather momentum. Farmers typically store seeds with themselves for sowing, but the quality is not as good as certified seeds. Certified varieties are produced from foundation seeds derived from breeder seeds by agricultural scientists and are considered to be the best in quality and yield. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -51 Rupees to 7207 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.12% to settled at 34130 while prices down -3 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6950 and below same could see a test of 6921 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7019, a move above could see prices testing 7059.

Trading Ideas:            

*  Soyabean trading range for the day is 6921-7059.

* Soyabean settled flat paring gains seen earlier as sowing may get impacted amid slow monsoon progress and lack of certified seeds

* There is lesser availability of certified seeds this year - SOPA

* Rains have not picked up in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan for sowing to gather momentum.

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -51 Rupees to 7207 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil           

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -2.73% at 1203.5 on profit booking tracking weakness in soyabean and overseas prices as concerns about U.S. crops eased. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period. India has put on hold a proposal to reduce import taxes on edible oils as cooking oil prices started to fall in the world market after hitting record highs, two government and one industry officials told. India slashed the base import prices of palm oil and soybean oil for a fortnight, the government said in a statement, as prices of the cooking oils fell sharply in the global market. Imports would remain elevated even in June as many states are easing lockdowns and allowing restaurants to reopen. A coalition of nine Argentine port worker unions went on a nationwide 24-hour strike to press for vaccinations against the coronavirus. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1287.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.86% to settled at 37040 while prices down -33.8 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1180 and below same could see a test of 1157 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1241, a move above could see prices testing 1279.

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1157-1279.

* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking tracking weakness in soyabean and overseas prices as concerns about U.S. crops eased.

* India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22

*  A coalition of nine Argentine port worker unions went on a nationwide 24-hour strike to press for vaccinations against the coronavirus.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1287.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil    

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 986 amid prospects of higher production despite supply remained tight. Refiners are facing slow arrivals of crude palm oil, which is witnessing a slower pace and resulting in tightness for processed palm oil. Fitch Ratings said it expects crude palm oil prices to decline further in second-half of 2021, following a sharp correction in June, mainly driven by higher production due to favourable weather conditions. Malaysia's benchmark crude palm oil price is estimated to remain between 3,500-3,800 ringgit a tonne in the next three months, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said on Thursday. MPOC's forecast is based expectations of marginally rising crude palm oil production, and a pick up in exports in July and August, MPOC CEO Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail told. The vegetable oil market may be supported by stronger-than-expected biodiesel demand from the recovery in crude oil prices, economies reopening or higher mandate from producing countries. The firmer sentiment comes on the back of robust demand for June shipment and inquiries for July, especially for crude palm oil and olein. The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimated production during June 1-20 jumped 15% from the month before. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 5 Rupees to end at 1053 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.67% to settled at 4483 while prices down -8.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 972.3 and below same could see a test of 958.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1006.1, a move above could see prices testing 1026.2.          

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 958.6-1026.2.

* Crude palm oil ended with losses amid prospects of higher production despite supply remained tight.

* Refiners are facing slow arrivals of crude palm oil, which is witnessing a slower pace and resulting in tightness for processed palm oil.

* Malaysia's June 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Seen At 1,174,350 Tonnes Versus May 1-25 At 1,107,570 Tonnes

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 5 Rupees to end at 1053 Rupees.

Mustard Seed           

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.21% at 6945 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. However upside seen limited pushed lower by flagging global overseas prices amid forecasts for beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairie. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 136.75 Rupees to end at 7196.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.49% to settled at 47250 while prices up 83 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6875 and below same could see a test of 6805 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6995, a move above could see prices testing 7045.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6805-7045.

* Mustard seed prices gains as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.

* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.

* Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

*  In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 136.75 Rupees to end at 7196.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric           

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 7522 as consumption has improved significantly after the Covid outbreak, mainly because of the efforts of the Aayush Ministry and increasing awareness of turmeric being a strong immunity builder. Turmeric from Meghalaya, are in high demand in European markets. For the first time, turmeric have been shipped from Meghalaya to The Netherlands and United Kingdom. 150 kgs of Lakadong turmeric are out for The Netherlands and 210 kgs of Lakadong turmeric have been shipped to United Kingdom. On the whole increase in export sales and rise in the domestic use of turmeric as an immunity builder has resulted in smaller carryover stock from last year — along with low crop production because of adverse weather in the producing belts. Heavy rainfall in Maharashtra and Telangana during end of 2020 had adversely affected the optimal development of crop bulbs in final stages. According to data from Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Telangana and Maharashtra contribute more than 50 per cent of India’s 9 Lakh tonnes of turmeric production. Telangana produces nearly 3 Lakh tonnes of turmeric while Maharashtra produces around 2 Lakh tonnes. Traders expect a 10-15% drop in output in the major producing states of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra due to heavy rainfall during the crop development period. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7498.9 Rupees gained 1.15 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.17% to settled at 10565 while prices up 42 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7440 and below same could see a test of 7356 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7598, a move above could see prices testing 7672.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7356-7672.

* Turmeric prices gained as consumption has improved significantly after the Covid outbreak

* Turmeric from Meghalaya, are in high demand in European markets.

* Increase in export sales and rise in use of turmeric as an immunity builder has resulted in smaller carryover stock from last year

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7498.9 Rupees gained 1.15 Rupees.

Jeera           

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.23% at 13560 as estimates indicate that production of Jeera/Cumin may fall by 10 to 15% compared to last year. Production was around 92 lakh bags (55 kg per bag) in 2019-2020. This season, the output may be between 85 and 90 lakh bags. As per the government data, the planted area in Gujarat state has dropped to 4.69 lakh hectares from last season’s 4.88 lakh hectares. Production in Turkey was around 15,000 tonne last year, and the country may produce lesser this year as estimated by traders and industry persons. Similar situation is seen in Syria, where production is estimated be lower because of political instability. Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -14 Rupees to end at 13678.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.31% to settled at 6189 while prices up 165 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13410 and below same could see a test of 13265 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13640, a move above could see prices testing 13725.

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13265-13725.

* Jeera prices gains as estimates indicate that production may fall by 10 to 15% compared to last year. 

*  Production in Turkey was around 15,000 tonne last year, and the country may produce lesser this

* Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -14 Rupees to end at 13678.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton           

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 24630 as some support seen tracking overseas prices amid concerns over the weather in top growing regions. Meanwhile, heavy rains over the weekend from Tropical Storm Claudette threatened the natural fiber crop in the U.S. Delta region. There are concerns that remain about the size of the U.S. crop in 2021, with how many acres have been planted and on the flip side demand is still good overseas. Falling arrival numbers of raw cotton due to the lean supply season and thin stocks lying with ginners and farmers has resulted in supply crunch in the market. For the first time in six years, Punjab’s area under cotton cultivation this kharif season has crossed the 3 lakh hectare mark. This is an increase of 17% over 2020, when cotton was sown on 2.5 lakh hectare. The state, however, is still 41% short of the golden phase in 2011-12 when the area under the traditional cash crop was 5.2 lakh hectare. In 2015, cotton was sown on 3.25 lakh hectares in southern districts. After a devastating period of the worst whitefly attack on cotton that year, farmers turned away from sowing the crop. Before 2014, over 4 lakh hectare was under cotton. In spot market, Cotton gained by 60 Rupees to end at 24530 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.54% to settled at 6821 while prices up 160 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 24550 and below same could see a test of 24460 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24690, a move above could see prices testing 24740.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 24460-24740.

* Cotton gained as some support seen tracking overseas prices amid concerns over the weather in top growing regions.

* Meanwhile, heavy rains over the weekend from Tropical Storm Claudette threatened the natural fiber crop in the U.S. Delta region.

* In Punjab, for first time in six years, area under cotton crosses 3 lakh hectare

#          In spot market, Cotton gained  by 60 Rupees to end at 24530 Rupees.

Chana           

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 5153 as chana procurement has resumed in the state after remaining suspended for more than a month due to restrictions imposed by the government in view of the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic and inclement weather this month. Support also seen as pulses acreage could witness a decline during the forthcoming kharif season after the Centre opened up imports of tur, urad and moong. Government amended the pulses import policy by moving tur, urad and moong from ‘restricted’ to ‘free’ category. The Commerce Ministry in a notification said the revision in pulses import policy is with immediate effect and will for the period up to October 31, 2021. Further, import consignments of these items with Bill of Landing issued on or before October 31 shall not be allowed by Customs beyond November 30, the notification said. “The Open General License (OGL) under the free import policy will enable the traders to quickly import the required quantity of tur, moong and urad to fulfil the shortage of the pulses. We are expecting minimum 250,000 tonnes of tur, 150,000 tonnes of urad and around 50,000-75,000 tonnes of moong beans to be imported primarily from Myanmar, African, and the neighbouring countries.” In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 3.15 Rupees to end at 5086 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.18% to settled at 114110 while prices up 14 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5132 and below same could see a test of 5110 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5177, a move above could see prices testing 5200.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 5110-5200.

* Chana gained as chana procurement has resumed after remaining suspended for more than a month 

*  However there is a strong possibility of shortage in pulses production, especially due to uncertainty over sowing this crop year due to the pandemic.

* The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses.

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 3.15 Rupees to end at 5086 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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