Natural gas trading range for the day is 215.8-247.6. - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -1.41% at 46237 as the dollar strengthened and US Treasury yields remained elevated. Pressuring prices further were expectations of a robust economic recovery fuelled by the vaccines’ rollout and more government spending. However, the inflationary risks posed by record-high debt levels should drive prices higher in the long-run. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he sees three phases for the U.S. economy this year and overall he is “quite optimistic” thanks to gains health officials appear to be making in bringing the COVID-19 pandemic under control. The first third of the year will be the most challenging, with a continuing need for measures to support unemployed workers and small businesses while vaccination efforts gain traction. The second phase around mid-year will see vaccinated populations reengaging in activities that they have had to forego for much of the last year, adding he sees a fair bit of “pent up demand” for pursuits including travel and entertainment. U.S. business inventories increased solidly in December, with stocks at retailers larger than initially estimated. Business inventories rose 0.6% in December after gaining 0.5% in November, the Commerce Department said. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product. Retail inventories increased 1.2% in December, instead of 1.0% as estimated in an advance report published last month. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.8% to settled at 13623 while prices down -662 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46000 and below same could see a test of 45762 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46638, a move above could see prices testing 47038.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 45762-47038.
* Gold prices dropped as the dollar strengthened and US Treasury yields remained elevated.
* Pressuring prices further were expectations of a robust economic recovery fuelled by the vaccines’ rollout and more government spending.
* Fed’s Barkin said he sees three phases for the U.S. economy this year and overall he is “quite optimistic”.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 69231 as a runaway rally in global bond yields coupled with a firmer dollar dented the precious metal's safe-haven appeal. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have topped 1.3 percent for the first time in nearly a year, driven by increasing inflationary concerns on the back of successful vaccine rollouts and prospects of more stimulus. U.S. producer prices increased by the most since 2009 in January as the cost of goods and services surged, suggesting inflation at the factory gate was starting to creep up. The producer price index for final demand jumped 1.3% last month, the biggest gain since December 2009 when the government revamped the series, the Labor Department said. That followed a 0.3% rise in December. In the 12 months through January, the PPI accelerated 1.7% after rising 0.8% in December. A 1.3% rise in the prices of services accounted for two-thirds of the increase in the PPI. That was the biggest gain since December 2009 and followed a 0.1% drop in December. Output at U.S. factories increased more than expected in January even as a shortage of semiconductors weighed on the production of motor vehicles, pointing to resilience in the manufacturing sector recovery. Manufacturing production rose 1.0% last month after gaining 0.9% in December, the Federal Reserve said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.9% to settled at 12055 while prices down -141 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68554 and below same could see a test of 67876 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69768, a move above could see prices testing 70304.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67876-70304.
*Silver extended losses as a runaway rally in global bond yields coupled with a firmer dollar dented the precious metal's safe-haven appeal.
* U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have topped 1.3 percent for the first time in nearly a year, driven by increasing inflationary concerns on the back of successful vaccine rollouts
* U.S. producer prices increased by the most since 2009 in January as the cost of goods and services surged.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.15% at 4414 driven by an Arctic blast curbing output from oil and gas fields in Texas, the country's biggest oil-producing state. Further upside seen limited after Norway, western Europe's largest oil and gas producer, averted a strike and shutdowns of major offshore fields, as oil workers reached a wage bargain with operator Equinor. Still, U.S. oil supply remains strained amid a deep freeze in the U.S. South which has hit power supply, and in turn knocked out about 500,000 to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude production in the Permian Basin in Texas. Estimates of total curtailed shale oil production range from at least 2 million barrels per day to 3.5 million bpd, analysts said. OPEC+ oil producers are likely to ease curbs on supply after April given a recovery in prices, OPEC+ sources said, although any increase in output will be modest as producers are wary of fresh setbacks in the battle against the pandemic. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, slowed the pace of a planned output increase in January to match weaker-than-expected fuel demand due to continued restrictions on population movement because of the pandemic. Saudi Arabia made additional voluntary cuts to supply for February and March. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.18% to settled at 2183 while prices up 50 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4345 and below same could see a test of 4275 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4472, a move above could see prices testing 4529.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4275-4529.
* Crude oil prices gains driven by an Arctic blast curbing output from oil and gas fields in Texas
* Saudi not expected to maintain voluntary cut at current prices
* Market could be ready for extra 500,000 bpd in April
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 5.88% at 235.7 as a frigid blast across the United States disrupted pipeline flows and pushed up heating demand. In their latest forecasts, meteorologists projected average U.S. temperatures will remain well below normal through Feb. 21. Starting Feb. 22, however, the weather was expected to turn mild and stay that way through the end of the month. In the spot market, meanwhile, power gas prices across North America soared to their highest in years as freezing wells cut output and homes and businesses cranked up their heaters to escape the arctic blast moving across Canada and the United States. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 89.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February. Traders noted that was down from 91.1 bcfd in January, due in part to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop from 87.7 bcfd on Thursday to 85.3 bcfd on Friday, the lowest since mid October, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv that will likely be revised later in the day. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 37.64% to settled at 13708 while prices up 13.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 225.7 and below same could see a test of 215.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 241.6, a move above could see prices testing 247.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 215.8-247.6.
* Natural gas jumped as a frigid blast across the United States disrupted pipeline flows and pushed up heating demand.
* In their latest forecasts, meteorologists projected average U.S. temperatures will remain well below normal through Feb. 21.
* Starting Feb. 22, however, the weather was expected to turn mild and stay that way through the end of the month.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.38% at 644.35 as dollar index rallied 91, after economic data showed the US retail trade rose 5.3% in January, recovering from three consecutive months of falls and easily beating market expectations. However downside seen limited amid optimism about a global economic recovery that bodes well for metals demand, against the backdrop of tightening supply. Global copper smelting activity fell in January, led by Europe and North America, as pandemic lockdowns dampened industrial activity. Goldman Sachs and Citi have raised their 12-month price target for copper to $10,000 a tonne, while ANZ reiterated a 12-month target of $9,000 a tonne "with risk skewed to the upside". For calendar 2021, Chinese demand is expected to be roughly 5% higher than in calendar 2019, but supply constraints remain in pandemic-hit Chile and Peru, the world’s two largest exporters of primary copper. Output at U.S. factories increased more than expected in January even as a shortage of semiconductors weighed on the production of motor vehicles, pointing to resilience in the manufacturing sector recovery. Manufacturing production rose 1.0% last month after gaining 0.9% in December, the Federal Reserve said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.01% to settled at 3105 while prices down -2.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 640.9 and below same could see a test of 637.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 647.6, a move above could see prices testing 650.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 637.3-650.7.
* Copper prices dropped as dollar index rallied 91, after economic data showed the US retail trade rose 5.3% in January
* Global copper smelting activity fell in January, led by Europe and North America, as pandemic lockdowns dampened industrial activity.
* Goldman Sachs and Citi have raised their 12-month price target for copper to $10,000 a tonne
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 227.55 as concerns about a possible rise in inflation tempered optimism around a vaccine-led global economic recovery. Growing expectations for inflation spurred benchmark U.S. Treasury yields to their highest since late-February 2020. The surge in yields in turn prompted the dollar to rebound from a three-week low, further pressuring prices. Progress on a $1.9 trillion U.S coronavirus relief plan, with President Joe Biden building public support for the relief bill that includes $1,400 stimulus checks, further drove yields up. U.S. producer prices increased by the most since 2009 in January as the cost of goods and services surged, suggesting inflation at the factory gate was starting to creep up. The producer price index for final demand jumped 1.3% last month, the biggest gain since December 2009 when the government revamped the series, the Labor Department said. That followed a 0.3% rise in December. In the 12 months through January, the PPI accelerated 1.7% after rising 0.8% in December. Output at U.S. factories increased more than expected in January even as a shortage of semiconductors weighed on the production of motor vehicles, pointing to resilience in the manufacturing sector recovery. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.38% to settled at 2199 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 225.9 and below same could see a test of 224 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 229.3, a move above could see prices testing 230.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 224-230.8.
* Zinc prices dropped as concerns about a possible rise in inflation tempered optimism around a vaccine-led global economic recovery.
* Growing expectations for inflation spurred benchmark U.S. Treasury yields to their highest since late-February 2020.
* The surge in yields in turn prompted the dollar to rebound from a three-week low, further pressuring prices.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 1361.7 as dollar seen supported after U.S. business inventories increased solidly in December, with stocks at retailers larger than initially estimated. Business inventories rose 0.6% in December after gaining 0.5% in November, the Commerce Department said. The economy grew at a 4.0% annualized rate in the fourth quarter after a historic 33.4% growth pace in the third quarter. Inventories contributed to GDP growth for two straight quarters. Rising inflation expectations pushed benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to their highest in a year. Data showed U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January after households received additional pandemic relief money from the government, suggesting a pick-up in economic activity after being restrained by a fresh wave of COVID-19 infections late last year. U.S. producer prices increased by the most since 2009 in January as the cost of goods and services surged, suggesting inflation at the factory gate was starting to creep up. Output at U.S. factories increased more than expected in January even as a shortage of semiconductors weighed on the production of motor vehicles, pointing to resilience in the manufacturing sector recovery. Manufacturing production rose 1.0% last month after gaining 0.9% in December, the Federal Reserve said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.86% to settled at 1739 while prices down -4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1355 and below same could see a test of 1348.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1366.2, a move above could see prices testing 1370.7.
Trading Ideas
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1348.3-1370.7.
* Nickel prices dropped as dollar seen supported after U.S. business inventories increased solidly in December
* Rising inflation expectations pushed benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to their highest in a year
* The economy grew at a 4.0% annualized rate in the fourth quarter after a historic 33.4% growth pace in the third quarter.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.63% at 171.2 driven by a recovery in demand particularly in the automotive, packaging and construction sectors from the Covid-19 hit. Meantime, the Biden administration kept a tariff rate of 10 percent on aluminum imports from the United Arab Emirates. China’s factory gate prices rose in annual terms in January for the first time in 12 months and at the fastest rate since May 2019, suggesting gathering growth momentum for the world’s second-largest economy. The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.3% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. PPI declined 0.4% in December. The Chinese economy is expected to grow 8.4% this year, following a 2.3% rise in 2020 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic that forced the country to shut down for much of the March quarter last year. Stocks of aluminium billet across five major consumption areas in China increased by 37,400 tonnes on lower shipments due to the Chinese New Year holiday. The stocks came in at 165,500 tonnes as of Wednesday February 10. Aluminium billet shipments stood at 14,000 tonnes this week. Shipments dropped by 13,300 tonnes. Primary aluminium ingot inventories in China have continued to build-up this week, on Wednesday, February 10. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.47% to settled at 604 while prices up 2.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 168.8 and below same could see a test of 166.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 172.7, a move above could see prices testing 174.2.
Trading Ideas:
*Aluminium trading range for the day is 166.4-174.2.
* Aluminum prices gains driven by a recovery in demand particularly in the automotive, packaging and construction sectors from Covid-19 hit.
* Stocks of aluminium billet across five major consumption areas in China increased by 37,400 tonnes on lower shipments
* The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.3% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 952.8 on low level buying after prices dropped due to weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1083.5 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.67% to settled at 77 while prices up 0.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 946.2 and below same could see a test of 939.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 958.1, a move above could see prices testing 963.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 939.7-963.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1083.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped due to weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 4891 tracking rise in overseas prices underpinned by continued robust demand from China. Adding to a bullish sentiment bias were wet weather in top producer Brazil, which slowed harvesting and transportation of the 2020/2021 soybean crop. Support also seen as India's soymeal exports increased nearly six-fold to 3.36 lakh tonnes in January this year due to high demand in the global market. According to the Soybean Processors Association of India, in January 2020, soymeal exports were 58,000 tonnes. The Soybean Processors Association of India has projected a total production of 104.55 lakh soybeans nationally in the kharif season of 2020-21. Under this, an estimate of production of 45.44 lakh tonnes in Maharashtra, 3.60 lakh runs in Rajasthan, 3.70 lakh tonnes in Karnataka and 1.40 lakh tonnes in Gujarat has been made, while the remaining production is expected to be in Madhya Pradesh. According to the SOPA report, domestic production of soybean was 93.06 lakh tonnes in the 2019-20 season, which is expected to jump 12.5 percent to 104.55 lakh tonnes in the 2020-21 season. Harvesting and preparation of the crop has already been completed. In the four months from October 2020 to January 2021, about 6 lakh tonnes of soybeans arrived in the domestic months, which is 54.50 lakhs more than 9.50 lakhs over the same period last season. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5091 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.25% to settled at 192805 while prices up 18 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4856 and below same could see a test of 4822 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4929, a move above could see prices testing 4968.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4822-4968.
* Soyabean gains tracking rise in overseas prices underpinned by continued robust demand from China.
* Adding to a bullish sentiment bias were wet weather in top producer Brazil, which slowed harvesting and transportation of the 2020/2021 soybean crop.
* Support also seen as India's soymeal exports increased nearly six-fold to 3.36 lakh tonnes in January this year due to high demand in the global market.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5091 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.06% at 1143.6 paring gains seen tracking rise in overseas prices as extreme cold weather in key U.S. growing areas raised worries about global supplies. Support also seen amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. Export of soybean meal is back on tract, thanks to tightening world supply of soybeans and also linked to the strike induced interruption of Argentina soybean meal. Last week, soybean oil export sales have been 400 metric tonnes, lower than the previous week and 4 weeks ago. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1155 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.37% to settled at 44285 while prices up 0.7 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1138 and below same could see a test of 1134 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1150, a move above could see prices testing 1158.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1134-1158.
* Ref soyoil settled flat paring gains seen tracking rise in overseas prices as extreme cold weather in key U.S. growing areas raised worries about global supplies.
* Support also seen amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months.
* The growth may be limited as US soy oil export sales are not encouraging.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1155 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 1032.8 as India has raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne. However downside seen limited amid buying from major consumers China and India and lower production from Malaysia and Indonesia due to labor shortages caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Both Indonesia and Malaysia responded to falling prices last March by fertilizing fewer trees, reducing fruit production. Shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for February 1-15 climbed 27.4% from a year earlier according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. Palm oil’s rise has also been supported by rallies in the likes of sunflower and rapeseed oils as the crops have been hurt by dry weather in the past year. Support also seen amid a spike in crude oil prices made the vegetable oil a more attractive feedstock option for biodiesel. Higher crude oil prices increase demand for palm oil as a feedstock for biodiesel. India's palm oil imports jumped 31% in January from a year earlier as lower import taxes prompted refiners to increase purchases of the tropical oil. India in late November slashed the import tax on crude palm oil (CPO) to 27.5% from 37.5%, as New Delhi tried to bring down rising food prices. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 4.5 Rupees to end at 1045.5 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.25% to settled at 4715 while prices down -1.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1026.6 and below same could see a test of 1020.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1042.3, a move above could see prices testing 1051.9.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1020.5-1051.9.
Crude palm oil pared gains as India has raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne.
* However downside seen limited amid buying from major consumers China and India and lower production from Malaysia and Indonesia due to labor shortages.
* Shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for February 1-15 climbed 27.4% from a year earlier according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 4.5 Rupees to end at 1045.5 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 5462 due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. The mustard sowing was excellent this year. Production is expected to be better with favorable weather. The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Rajasthan has reached 70 thousand kattas. Mustard is getting up to 7/15 percent moisture. The weather is changing, so the moisture content is expected to decrease soon. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Uttar Pradesh is increasing day by day. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6500 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.23% to settled at 32190 while prices up 24 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5421 and below same could see a test of 5380 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5504, a move above could see prices testing 5546.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5380-5546.
* Mustard seed prices rose due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty.
* The mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather.
* The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6500 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.29% at 7348 on continuous profit booking as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled. Prices rallied in recent session due to the possibility of 25 percent crop loss in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Even in Sangli district of Maharashtra, the crop has been affected. There are expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area in the kharif sowing season 2020 across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long. Poor quality of arrivals is another reason for the drop in demand. Therefore, many traders in Erode started buying turmeric from the markets of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as the prices were low there. Despite 2% freight, they are saving 5% on costs. Apprehensions are there that water logging and higher moisture due to recent rains in October in major Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand. On the export front, India exported around 0.86 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in April-August, 2020 which is 51% higher than April-August, 2019 at 0.57 lakh tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7175 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.03% to settled at 8165 while prices down -96 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7236 and below same could see a test of 7126 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7522, a move above could see prices testing 7698.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7126-7698.
* Turmeric prices dropped on continuous profit booking as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled
* Even in Sangli district of Maharashtra, the crop has been affected.
* Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7175 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.87% at 13655 on profit booking after prices gained in recent sessions due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches. Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time. Weather conditions remain supportive and traders are avoiding buying large quantities in the wholesale markets before the new arrivals from next month. Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months. Acreage under Jeera in leading producing state of Gujarat was at 4.64 lakh hectares (lh), marking a jump of around 11% compared to the same time last year which may not allow any significant price appreciation of cumin in coming weeks. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year. As India going to start it vaccination in the whole country from 16th January onwards it is raising the expectation of trader regarding the boost in demand of Jeera from export as well as from domestic which was dropped in 2020 due to Covid. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13272.2 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.24% to settled at 1254 while prices down -120 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13550 and below same could see a test of 13440 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13835, a move above could see prices testing 14010.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 13440-14010.
Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained in recent sessions due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches.
* Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time.
* Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13272.2 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 21450 following market expectation of yet another month of lower world cotton stock revision by USDA. Export prospects of Indian cotton has increased once again as domestic prices are a huge discount from overseas cotton prices, which may increase the attractiveness of Indian cotton in the global market. The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. The export forecast is raised 250,000 bales to 15.5 million based on a strong pace of shipments to date. Ending stocks are now estimated at 4.3 million bales, The USDA projects the upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers at 68 cents per pound, unchanged from its January estimate. The 2020/21 world cotton forecasts include higher production, consumption, and imports, led by changes in China. World production is projected 1.3 million bales higher this month, with China’s forecast raised by 1.5 million bales as the daily rates of both ginning and inspections in Xinjiang continue to show late-season strength, which is an unusual price behavior. Reports from China continue to suggest 2020/21 cotton area in Xinjiang was little changed from last year, but government classing data now indicates yields could be about 10 percent higher, while lower in Eastern China. In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 21430 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.43% to settled at 3850 while prices down -20 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21400 and below same could see a test of 21350 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21500, a move above could see prices testing 21550.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21350-21550.
* Cotton settled flat paring ain seen following market expectation of yet another month of lower world cotton stock revision by USDA.
* Export prospects of Indian cotton has increased once again as domestic prices are a huge discount from overseas cotton prices
* The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 21430 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 4751 as the Centre is expected to purchase around 600,000 tn chana harvested in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) under the price support scheme from farmers in Madhya Pradesh. "Initially, the government approved purchase of 600,000 tn chana from farmers in Madhya Pradesh. It may ask to buy more chana on the state government's request". If the government allows higher purchases, overall procurement this season is likely to surpass last year's level of over 700,000 tn. The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka for the Rabi season 2020-21. During the current financial year, there are signs of a decline in the import of gram from abroad and some increase in the import of country gram. According to the available data, 60 thousand tonnes of chana were imported in the eight months of April-November 2020, while 55 thousand tonnes are estimated in December 2020 and 21,000 tonnes in January 2021. Thus, in the ten months of April 2020 to January 2021, a total of 1.36 lakh tonnes of gram were imported. In comparison, in the 12 months of April 2019 to March 2020, more than 2.51 lakh tonnes of chana were sourced from abroad. The arrival of new goods of gram in India has started in some areas. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4711.55 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.9% to settled at 29880 while prices up 28 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4725 and below same could see a test of 4700 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4785, a move above could see prices testing 4820.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4700-4820.
* Chana prices seen supported as Govt may buy 600,000 tn from farmers in Madhya Pradesh
* The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka for the Rabi season 2020-21.
* The arrival of new goods of gram in India has started in some areas.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4711.55 Rupees per 100 kgs.
