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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 52931 as the dollar index bounced back above the 107 mark, a dramatic reversal from its daily lows of around 106.3, as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy ahead of remarks from Fed Chair Powell. Markets have been betting that the US central bank will likely slow the pace of tightening to 50 basis points in December after delivering four straight 75 basis point increases. However, recent hawkish remarks from several Fed policymakers, with Louis Fed President James Bullard and his New York counterpart John Williams warning about a higher terminal level, brought uncertainty around the rate path. Meanwhile, the latest data showed US GDP growth was revised higher to 2.9% in Q3 from initial estimates of 2.6%. At the same time, second estimates showed PCE prices slowed less than earlier expected. Another report showed hiring at US companies retreated in November to the slowest pace in nearly two years and wage gains moderated. India witnessed a decline in both gold and silver imports in October, according to the latest by the Commerce ministry. The import of the yellow metal declined 17.38% to about $24 billion during April-October due to a fall in demand, according to the data of the commerce ministry. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.96% to settle at 15039 while prices are down -53 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52813 and below same could see a test of 52695 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53099, a move above could see prices testing 53267.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 52695-53267.
* Gold settled flat as the dollar bounced back above 107 mark, as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy ahead of remarks from Fed Chair Powell.
* Markets have been betting that Fed will likely slow the pace of tightening to 50bps in December after delivering four straight 75 basis point increases.
* However, recent hawkish remarks from several Fed policymakers, warning about a higher terminal level, brought uncertainty around the rate path.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.99% at 63461 backed by a combination of demand optimism and tight supplies. Global consumption of the white metal is expected to hit a new all-time high in 2022, driven by post-pandemic industrial and physical investment demand. Investors continued to assess the health of the US economy for hints on how much tightening leeway the Federal Reserve has to curb inflation. Second estimates showed that the US GDP grew by 2.9% in the third quarter, above the previous estimate of 2.6% and adding some resilience to the economy ahead of more rate hikes by the Fed. Previously, FOMC member Bullard noted that financial markets are underestimating the chances of higher interest rates next year as inflation remains far too high, also pressuring US debt. The hawkish tone went against minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, which signaled that policymakers agreed that there were concerns about the economy’s health and that it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes. Wholesale inventories in the US rose by 0.8 percent month-over-month to $925.8 billion in October of 2022, picking up from a 0.6 percent rise in the prior month, preliminary estimates showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 15.95% to settle at 16573 while prices are up 625 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62808 and below same could see a test of 62154 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64033, a move above could see prices testing 64604.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 62154-64604.
* Silver rose backed by a combination of demand optimism and tight supplies.
* Investors continued to assess the health of the US economy for hints on how much tightening leeway the Federal Reserve has to curb inflation.
* Second estimates showed that the US GDP grew by 2.9% in the third quarter, above the previous estimate of 2.6%


Crude oil 
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.32% at 6571 on signs of tighter supply, a weaker dollar and optimism over a Chinese demand recovery. But the likelihood that OPEC+ will leave output unchanged at its upcoming meeting limited the gains. The OPEC+ decision to hold its Dec. 4 meeting virtually signals little likelihood of a policy change, as the group assesses the impact of the looming Russian oil-price cap on the market. A virtual meeting puts the focus on the pending European Union deal over the price cap on Russian oil, as well as a Dec. 5 deadline imposed by the bloc for a full embargo on purchases of Moscow's seaborne crude. A group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is highly likely to take further measures to stem a price decline and try to balance the market, according to Goldman Sachs. U.S. crude oil stocks dropped by 7.9 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 25, according to American Petroleum Institute figures. And the International Energy Agency expects Russian crude production to be curtailed by some 2 million barrels of oil per day by the end of the first quarter next year, its chief Fatih Birol told. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -22.36% to settle at 11734 while prices are up 149 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6446 and below same could see a test of 6320 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6673, a move above could see prices testing 6774.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6320-6774.
* Crude oil up on tighter supply while OPEC+ talks limit gains
* Goldman Sachs sees ‘high probability’ of OPEC cut — and expects oil prices to hit $110 next year
* API data shows fall in U.S. crude stocks

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.91% at 568.4 as forecasts released recently are pointing to milder weather over the next two weeks. Meanwhile investors remained concerned about possible coal supply disruptions. Workers at the largest US rail union voted against a tentative contract deal reached in September, raising the possibility of a year-end strike that could disrupt coal deliveries and force power generators to burn more gas. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 99.6 bcfd so far in November, up from a monthly record 99.4 bcfd in October. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 115.1 bcfd this week to 126.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has jumped to 11.7 bcfd so far in November, up from 11.3 bcfd in October. That is still well below the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March due mostly to the ongoing outage at Freeport. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 41.93% to settle at 7907 while prices are down -23.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 551.5 and below same could see a test of 534.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 590.1, a move above could see prices testing 611.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 534.5-611.7.
* Natural gas dropped as forecasts released recently are pointing to milder weather over the next two weeks.
* Meanwhile investors remained concerned about possible coal supply disruptions.
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 99.6 bcfd so far in November, up from a monthly record 99.4 bcfd in October.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.22% at 684.8 as measures to stimulate construction and industrial activity coincided with looming supply concerns. Authorities in top consumer China lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property developers, shortly after the country’s top banks extended $162 billion in fresh credit lines for the sector. Additionally, the PBoC cut its reserve ratio by 25bps after rapidly increasing covid cases in the country drove the government to trigger strict lockdowns and business curbs. Concerns of upcoming shortages also supported copper futures to hover nearly 15% above the 20-month low of $3.2 hit in July. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that low prices do not reflect the tightness of the physical market. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, rose 2.2% year-on-year to 485,447 tonnes in October, the country's statistics agency INE said. The world's refined copper market showed a 10,000 tonne deficit in September, compared with 13,000 tonnes in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in September was 2.16 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.17 million tonnes. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4% to settle at 5230 while prices are up 8.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 677 and below same could see a test of 669.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 690.5, a move above could see prices testing 696.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 669.2-696.2.
* Copper rose as measures to stimulate construction and industrial activity coincided with looming supply concerns.
* PBoC cut its reserve ratio by 25bps after rapidly increasing covid cases drove the government to trigger strict lockdowns and business curbs.
* Chile copper output up 2.2% in October; industrial output drops 9.2%


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.54% at 270.2 as investors' mood improved amid hopes that China could soon relax some covid restrictions. The country announced measures to boost elderly vaccination while covid cases fell for the first time in more than a week. The global zinc market deficit rose to 103,000 tonnes in September from a revised deficit of 90,200 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 101,100 tonnes in August. During the first nine months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 43,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 101,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. China imported 1,007 mt of refined zinc in October, down 77.55% on the month and 97.54% on the year. Still, concerns persist about the possibility of further supply disruptions in Europe amid uncertainty around shortages of energy. Numerous European zinc producers had to either shut down their smelters entirely or cut production down this year due to high energy costs and low inventories. Meanwhile, the Budel smelter of Nyrstar was planning to resume production partially this month, and giant Glencore said it expects to resume production in the first quarter of 2023. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 10.08% to settle at 3265 while prices are up 6.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 265 and below same could see a test of 259.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 273.4, a move above could see prices testing 276.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 259.7-276.5.
* Zinc rose as investors' mood improved amid hopes that China could soon relax some covid restrictions.
* China announced measures to boost elderly vaccination while covid cases fell for the first time in more than a week.
* Global zinc market deficit rises to 103,000 T in September – ILZSG


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 2.17% at 211.4 as hopes grew that Beijing would loosen its strict COVID-19 restrictions. China's factory activity contracted at a faster pace in November, an official survey showed. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index stood at 48.0 against a 49.2 reading in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Aluminium stocks at LME warehouses dropped 2,575 tonnes to 503,700 tonnes on Monday. Inventories were down 14.2% from 587,100 tonnes on Oct. 26. Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE declined 11.9% to 110,017 tonnes last Friday, the lowest since February 2017. Smelters in northern China are cutting output to reduce pollution during the winter, while the resumption of plants forced to go offline due to power issues has been slower than expected. The market outlook has also been clouded by weak demand in China, with main consumption sectors such as transportation and construction struggling from a slowing economy. China's aluminium imports in October fell 33.9% from a year earlier due to persistently weak demand and increases in domestic supply. The country brought in 196,460 tonnes, including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium, last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. The drop in imports comes after a ramp-up in domestic production this year. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 43.32% to settle at 7371 while prices are up 4.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 207.8 and below same could see a test of 204 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.6, a move above could see prices testing 215.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204-215.6.
* Aluminum prices rose as hopes grew that Beijing would loosen its strict COVID-19 restrictions.
* China's factory activity contracted at a faster pace in November, an official survey showed.
* LME Inventories were down 14.2% from 587,100 tonnes on Oct. 26.


Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.87% at 952.4 as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 19 Rupees to end at 1099.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.43% to settle at 920 while prices are down -8.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 945.2 and below same could see a test of 938.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 960.7, a move above could see prices testing 969.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 938.1-969.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 19 Rupees to end at 1099.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.21% at 7182 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7378.2 Rupees dropped -21.95 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.96% to settle at 8515 while prices are down -88 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7120 and below same could see a test of 7060 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7280, a move above could see prices testing 7380.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7060-7380.
* Turmeric dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of supply.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7378.2 Rupees dropped -21.95 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled fkat at 24690 amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. As per Gujarat Government, around 77,037 hectares of sowing has been completed as on 21st November 2022 in Jeera key growing regions in Gujarat and according to this data, normal area (three years average) in Gujarat likely to be around 421,457 hectares. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 16.6 Rupees to end at 24511.6 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.33% to settle at 5493 while prices are remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24515 and below same could see a test of 24345 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24820, a move above could see prices testing 24955.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24345-24955.
* Jeera settled flat gained amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 16.6 Rupees to end at 24511.6 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.22% at 31610 on reports that North Indian cotton’s quality has diminished due to extended monsoon. markets were receiving nearly a third lower in supplies than normal. Cotton supply is expected to remain around 38.7 million bales which was 39.2 million bales during 2021-22. Export demand from neighboring countries and winter season demand in domestic market is increased usually in Oct-Dec. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 100 Rupees to end at 32600 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.95% to settle at 2981 while prices are up 380 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30590 and below same could see a test of 29580 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32140, a move above could see prices testing 32680.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 29580-32680.
* Cotton prices gained on reports that North Indian cotton’s quality has diminished due to extended monsoon.
* Cotton supply is expected to remain around 38.7 million bales which was 39.2 million bales during 2021-22.
* Data from CFTC showed that speculators cut their net short position on cotton futures
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 100 Rupees to end at 32600 Rupees.

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