Natural gas trading range for the day is 194.5-216.5 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 47816 amid optimism that increased government spending around the world and concerted efforts to accelerate vaccine rollout will boost global growth. The U.S. Senate took steps to open the door for Democrats to push through the Covid-19 rescue package on their own, but bipartisanship was absent. The rollout of vaccines in many countries is gathering pace, with Russia announcing it would be able to vaccinate 700 million people with the Sputnik V coronavirus jab this year. The United States Mint said it was unable to meet surging demand for its gold and silver bullion coins in 2020 and through January, due partly to pandemic-driven demand and plant capacity issues. Sales of U.S. gold bullion coins rose 258% in 2020 while silver coin demand was up 28%, the U.S. Mint said. Heavy buying has continued in 2021, it said, squeezing supplies, which had already been tight as the coronavirus affected production. In January, 220,500 American Eagle gold bullion coins were sold, up 290% from 56,500 a year earlier, the Mint said. Physical gold demand eased in top consumer China this week as coronavirus-led restrictions dampened retail buying ahead of the Chinese New Year. India saw modest gold demand, with retail buyers encouraged by a dip in domestic rates to their lowest in over a month. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.34% to settled at 13417 while prices down -9 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47655 and below same could see a test of 47493 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48029, a move above could see prices testing 48241.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47493-48241.
* Gold prices traded in range amid optimism that increased government spending around the world and concerted efforts to accelerate vaccine rollout
* The U.S. Senate took steps to open the door for Democrats to push through the Covid-19 rescue package on their own
* U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has summoned financial regulators to discuss the recent market volatility.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 1.52% at 68565 as prices attempted to rally after a more than 8% slump in the previous session that halted a social media inspired buying spree that began last week. The U.S. labor market bounced back with vigor from its lockdown-related blues in the first month of the year, according to a closely-watched private survey. Payrolls processor ADP said the U.S. private sector added a net 174,000 jobs in the month through mid-January. December’s data was also heavily revised to show a drop of only 78,000 from an initial estimate of 123,000. As such private job gains over the last two months have averaged 48,000 a month. U.S. services industry activity raced to its highest level in nearly two years in January, with growth in new orders and employment accelerating, raising cautious optimism that the beleaguered sector was turning the corner. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing activity index increased to a reading of 58.7 last month. The United States Mint said it was unable to meet surging demand for its silver bullion coins in 2020 and through January, due partly to pandemic-driven demand and plant capacity issues. Sales of U.S. silver coin demand was up 28%, the U.S. Mint said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.68% to settled at 12410 while prices up 1024 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67809 and below same could see a test of 67054 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69233, a move above could see prices testing 69902.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67054-69902.
* Silver prices attempted to rally after a slump in the previous session that halted a social media inspired buying spree that began last week.
* The U.S. labor market bounced back with vigor from its lockdown-related blues in the first month of the year, according to a closely-watched private survey.
* Sales of U.S. silver coin demand was up 28%, the U.S. Mint said.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.62% at 4070 on expectations global oil stocks will fall back to more normal levels this year and as U.S. lawmakers moved closer to approving President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid bill without Republican support. Market was buoyed by the latest assessment by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together known as OPEC+, that oil stockpiles will decline to below a five-year average by June. That showed the producers’ output cuts were succeeding in bringing the market back into balance. OPEC+ expects output cuts will keep the market in deficit throughout this year, peaking at 2 million barrels per day in May, even though it revised down its outlook for demand growth. Further supporting the market, industry data after the market closed showed U.S. crude and gasoline inventories fell unexpectedly. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, reported U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels in the week to Jan. 29, compared with expectations for a build of 446,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 240,000 barrels, defying analysts’ expectations for a build of 1.1 million barrels, while distillate inventories, which include heating oil and jet fuel, fell by 1.6 million barrels, a bigger draw than expected. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.04% to settled at 3395 while prices up 65 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4016 and below same could see a test of 3962 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4118, a move above could see prices testing 4166.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3962-4166.
* Crude oil rose on expectations global oil stocks will fall back to more normal levels this year
* OPEC+ expects output cuts will keep the market in deficit throughout this year, peaking at 2 million barrels per day in May
* Further supporting the market, industry data after the market closed showed U.S. crude and gasoline inventories fell unexpectedly.
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.81% at 204.4 on forecasts for less heating demand next week than previously expected. That small decline comes despite forecasts for a little more heating demand this week and an outlook that continues to call for temperatures to remain well below normal across much of North America through late February. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 89.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February. Traders said that was down from 91.0 bcfd in January, due in part to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise to 139.8 bcfd next week from 127.4 bcfd this week. That forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.7 bcfd so far in February, up from January's 10.4 bcfd average and on track to tie December's 10.7 bcfd record high. That LNG record came as buyers around the world purchased near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain much higher than in the United States. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.64% to settled at 6572 while prices down -8.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 199.4 and below same could see a test of 194.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.4, a move above could see prices testing 216.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 194.5-216.5.
* Natural gas eased on forecasts for less heating demand next week than previously expected.
* Data provider Refinitiv said output in the lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 89.8 bcfd so far in February.
* With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, would rise to 139.8 bcfd next week
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 1.11% at 597.4 on hopes that the United States would soon pass a long-awaited stimulus package which could boost metals demand and recovery in the world's biggest economy. However upside seen limited amid demand concerns ahead of a major holiday in top consumer China. China will celebrate its Lunar New Year holiday during Feb. 11-17, when metals demand usually dip as business activities slow. Meanwhile, a recent coronavirus outbreak in China has dampened the country's economic activities in January, dragging factory output and service activities growth to multi-month lows. Yangshan copper premium rose to its highest since August 2020 at $73 a tonne, amid disrupted supplies from top producer Chile. LME cash copper was last at a $10-a-tonne premium over the three-month contract , a level unseen since September 2020, indicating tight supplies of nearby contracts. The resurgence of COVID-19 in Hebei and three provinces in north-east China forced factories in some regions to suspend production for a period of time in early 2021. The impact on logistics was even bigger. Transport disruptions in Hebei, which is the largest wire and cable production base in the north, left many scrap copper rod manufacturers unable to deliver orders and pushed up their inventories significantly. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.03% to settled at 3442 while prices up 6.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 590.6 and below same could see a test of 583.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 601.7, a move above could see prices testing 605.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 583.6-605.8.
* Copper prices recovered on hopes that the United States would soon pass a long-awaited stimulus package which could boost metals demand and recovery
* Yangshan copper premium rose to its highest since August 2020 at $73 a tonne, amid disrupted supplies from Chile.
* China will celebrate its Lunar New Year holiday during Feb. 11-17, when metals demand usually dip as business activities slow.
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.7% at 209.15 as governments around the world looked poised to boost spending to help economies recover from the coronavirus and vaccine roll-out programs accelerated. Investors are monitoring negotiations in Washington surrounding another stimulus package. Zinc concentrate remained in tight supply, while zinc consumption weakened as it is approaching the CNY holiday. Zinc prices are likely to continue to fluctuate range-bound in the short term amid weak demand and supply. China's refined zinc output stood at 553,500 mt in December, falling 8,800 mt or down 1.57% on month and up 3.06% on year. In the full 2020, output totalled 6.1 million mt, up 4.44% from 2019. Zinc smelters produced 78,700 mt of zinc alloy in December, down 3.78% from the previous month. China's refined zinc output in December basically met expectations. Treatment charges (TCs) for domestic 50 grade zinc concentrate continued to decline in December. Domestic smelters rarely reduced production or turned into maintenance due to the shortage of zinc concentrate supply. China's refined zinc output in December fell from November mainly due to smelters’ routine maintenance and decreased zinc products of smelters led by weaker hot-galvanising alloy orders. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.21% to settled at 1854 while prices up 3.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 206.2 and below same could see a test of 203.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.9, a move above could see prices testing 212.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 203.1-212.5.
* Zinc prices gained as governments around the world looked poised to boost spending to help economies recover
* Investors are monitoring negotiations in Washington surrounding another stimulus package.
* Zinc concentrate remained in tight supply, while zinc consumption weakened as it is approaching the CNY holiday.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 1280.1 traded in range as a private survey showed China's services sector activity growth slowing sharply in January. China Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index for January weakened month on month, which led to more cautious market sentiment and suppressed long positions radical sentiment. The US Senate initiated special procedures to pass the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan without Republicans. China’s NPI output shrank 12.5% from November to 37,300 mt Ni in December. This included 29,800 mt Ni of high-grade NPI, down 15.1% on the month, and 7,500 mt Ni of low-grade NPI, down 0.8% month on month. Shortage of raw materials and weak demand from steel makers drove NPI plants to cut or suspend production in December. A large-scale high-grade NPI plant in east China reduced output by 50%. A low-grade NPI plant in central China suspended production in December on environmental concerns, which led to the slight decline in output. Some steel makers stepped up production of #200 stainless steel due to its improved profits. China’s nickel sulphate output expanded 6.07% on the month and 63.97% on the year, to 77,800 mt or 17,100 mt in nickel content in December. This included 69,400 mt of battery-grade materials and 8,400 mt of electroplating materials. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.91% to settled at 1767 while prices down -6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1273.8 and below same could see a test of 1267.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1288.1, a move above could see prices testing 1296.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1267.5-1296.1.
* Nickel prices traded in range as a private survey showed China's services sector activity growth slowing sharply in January.
* China Caixin/Markit services PMI for January weakened month on month, which led to more cautious market sentiment
* China’s NPI output shrank 12.5% from November to 37,300 mt Ni in December.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 161.35 on increased optimism about stimulus packages and global economic recovery. Investors are monitoring negotiations in Washington surrounding another stimulus package. President Joe Biden met with the 10 Republican senators to discuss an alternative, smaller aid proposal to his $1.9 trillion package. Trades were quiet in the spot market as many enterprises suspended production for the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday earlier than previous years. China's service sector growth slowed at the start of the year as demand was dampened by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, survey results from IHS Markit showed. The Caixin services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.0 in January from 56.3 in December. However, a score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. The reading signaled the slowest rate of growth recorded over the current nine-month period of expansion. New work received by services companies grew at the slowest rate since last August. New orders from overseas gained at the weakest pace in three months as the recent rise in virus cases weighed on global demand. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.47% to settled at 856 while prices up 0.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 160.7 and below same could see a test of 159.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 162.1, a move above could see prices testing 162.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 159.9-162.7.
* Aluminium prices gained on increased optimism about stimulus packages and global economic recovery.
* China's service sector growth slowed at the start of the year as demand was dampened by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic
* President Joe Biden met with the 10 Republican senators to discuss an alternative, smaller aid proposal to his $1.9 trillion package.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 965.1 due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1130.6 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 74 while prices down -6.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 959.8 and below same could see a test of 954.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 973.3, a move above could see prices testing 981.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 954.4-981.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1130.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 4599 on profit booking after prices seen supported following improved demand from China, dry weather in Brazil, slower than expected pace of harvest in the US due to crop damage. Rising export demand for Soymeal and healthy domestic demand for Soy oil against lower mandi arrivals supported positive market sentiments. Arrival of new season crop has started. However, the pace of arrival is slower than expected. SOPA slashed down Soybean production estimates for 2020-21 season by 15% to 104.55 lakh tonnes from its first advance estimates of 122.47 lakh tonnes released on 21 August 2020 based on the survey conducted by their teams at various locations between 1-7 October 2020. Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2020-21 marketing year (February 2021 - January 2022) has made the slowest progress in a decade as unrelenting rains hampered field activities. Soybean farmers in the South American nation had been able to harvest only 1.9% of the projected acreage as of Jan. 28, compared with 8.9% last year. As per USDA report global soybean production is estimated to increase by 8% to 3621 lakh tonnes, while world soybean consumption is also expected to increase by 4% to 3697 Lakh tonnes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4689 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.63% to settled at 93160 while prices down -11 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4561 and below same could see a test of 4524 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4627, a move above could see prices testing 4656.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4524-4656.
* Soyabean prices dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported following improved demand from and US crop damage
* Arrival of new season crop has started, however the pace of arrival is slower than expected.
* Brazilian soybean harvest at slowest pace in a decade on incessant rains
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4689 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.33% at 1101.4 due to profit booking and as government cuts basic import duty on edible oils. However downside seen limited amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. Export of soybean meal is back on tract, thanks to tightening world supply of soybeans and also linked to the strike induced interruption of Argentina soybean meal. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1101.5 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.74% to settled at 36885 while prices down -14.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1092 and below same could see a test of 1081 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1112, a move above could see prices testing 1121.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1081-1121.
* Ref soyoil prices ended with losses due to profit booking and as government cuts basic import duty on edible oils.
* However downside seen limited amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months.
* Export of Oilmeals Doubled in December 2020
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1101.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -1.08% at 973.1 as a steep drop in January exports stoked demand concerns, while an additional tax imposed by top vegetable oil importer India also weighed on sentiment. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January fell between 32% and 37% from December, cargo surveyors said. January shipments to India slumped about 70%, and imports by the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils could remain tight after it imposed an additional tax on crude palm oil imports in an effort to build domestic agriculture infrastructure. Production will recover soon and put pressure on prices, and the market is expected to remain under pressure until demand returns for Eid celebrations scheduled in May. India has imposed an additional tax on crude palm oil imports, as the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils tries to build domestic agriculture infrastructure by taxing imports, FM Nirmala Sitharaman said. European Union palm oil imports in the 2020/21 season rose to 3.38 million tonnes by Jan. 31, compared with 3.29 million a year ago, data published by the European Commission showed. Shipments to India slumped about 70%, and imports by the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils could remain tight after it imposed an additional tax on crude palm oil imports in an effort to build domestic agriculture infrastructure. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -12.4 Rupees to end at 974.3 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.75% to settled at 6474 while prices down -10.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 959.8 and below same could see a test of 946.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 981.8, a move above could see prices testing 990.4.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 946.4-990.4.
* Crude palm oil dropped as a steep drop in January exports stoked demand concerns
* Further an additional tax imposed by top vegetable oil importer India also weighed on sentiment.
* Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -12.4 Rupees to end at 974.3 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.31% at 5650 as mustard crop is delayed due to cold over northern India. New mustard arrivals will start in Uttar Pradesh's mandis. In Rajasthan, due to excess moisture in the new crop, milling is not happening because for adulteration millers nor having old mustard crop. The most important oilseed crop-mustard production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare, which is significantly higher than last year's sowing area of 69.08 lakh hectare and the normal average area of 59.44 lakh hectare. Earlier, the area under mustard was 69.17 lakh hectare in 2018-19 season, 67.04 lakh hectare in 2017-18, 70.67 lakh hectare in 2016-17 and 64.61 lakh hectare in 2015-16. Mustard crop is in good condition in most of the major producing states and its average yield rate and quality are expected to improve. As a result, the total production of mustard can reach a new record level. The chairman of a leading industry organization has estimated the gross production to reach 100 lakh tonnes, while the possibility of production is generally 80–90 lakh tonnes. The government (Ministry of Agriculture) has set a target of producing 125 lakh tonnes of mustard, but there is doubt about its achievement. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6265.75 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.06% to settled at 13090 while prices up 73 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5566 and below same could see a test of 5482 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5698, a move above could see prices testing 5746.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5482-5746.
* Mustard prices ended with gains as mustard crop is delayed due to cold over northern India.
* Mustard production expected to reach new record level
* Mustard production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6265.75 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.34% at 6480 with the arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. But apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6447.75 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.22% to settled at 8960 while prices down -88 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6428 and below same could see a test of 6374 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6568, a move above could see prices testing 6654.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6374-6654.
* Turmeric prices dropped with the arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve.
* The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra.
* But apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6447.75 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 12955 as the season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues. Arrivals of cumin have started in various mandis of Gujarat's major producing regions, but now its quantity is less and the moisture content in it is being more. The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up. The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare, but its 15.50 percent more than 4.06 lakh hectare as per Five Year Average Area. The production area of cumin in Rajasthan has increased from 6.41 lakh hectare to 6.85 lakh hectare. The weather condition is good this time in both the provinces of Gujarat and Rajasthan and till now the crop has not faced any natural disaster. The average yield rate of cumin may increase if the weather is favorable in February-March. Prices have remained largely stable due to better domestic and export demand in cumin. The total production of cumin is likely to be around last year. An average daily arrival of 10-20 bags of new cumin seeds and 30-40 bags of new fennel is coming in Unjha Mandi. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 12863.65 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.4% to settled at 1269 while prices down -35 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 12890 and below same could see a test of 12825 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13060, a move above could see prices testing 13165.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 12825-13165.
* Jeera dropped as the season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues
* The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare
* The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 12863.65 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 21130 on short covering after prices dropped as pressure seen after the Union Ministry of Textiles’ Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) has projected a higher crop at 371 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) for the year 2020-21. Cotton trade had estimated the crop size at 358.50 lakh bales. In its meeting, the Committee, estimated the average cotton yield of 486.76 kg per hectare, up from 463.99 kg reported in the previous year. For the previous year, projected cotton crop size of 365 lakh bales in the country. As per the latest projections, Gujarat will be the largest cotton-growing State with 90.5 lakh bales and one of the highest yields at 676.86 kg per hectare. Rajasthan, with 27 lakh bales, is expected to have highest cotton yield at 683.04 kg. Besides Gujarat, the top three cotton growing states include Maharashtra with 86 lakh bales with 349.43 kg yield and Telangana with 60 lakh bales and 429.84 kg of cotton yield. Commenting on the cotton crop projections, J Thulasidharan, Chairman of Indian Cotton Federation, said that a higher crop would pose a serious challenge for India to clear huge stocks of the fibre crop. As per the government estimate, closing stock for 2020-21 is likely to be 97.95 lakh bales, as comapred to 120.95 lakh bales recorded last year. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -30 Rupees to end at 20850 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.44% to settled at 6590 while prices up 50 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21050 and below same could see a test of 20980 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21170, a move above could see prices testing 21220.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 20980-21220.
* Cotton gains on short covering after prices dropped as pressure seen after COCPC crop estimate is higher by 12.5 lakh bales
* The Committee, estimated the average cotton yield of 486.76 kg per hectare, up from 463.99 kg reported in the previous year.
* For the previous year, projected cotton crop size of 365 lakh bales in the country.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped by -30 Rupees to end at 20850 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 4545 as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure. In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need. During the Rabi season this year, about 112 lakh hectare area has been sown in the gram producing states, which was in 107.30 lakh hectare last year. Weather friendly is likely to increase productivity. Prices are running lower than MSP. The challenge of buying gram will be in front of the government. Selling of chana at the port was seen better. Chana arrivals are increasing in the mandis of Maharashtra. The pressure of new crop arrivals was seen on the markets. From next month, arrival of gram will also start in Rajasthan. In Australia due to the growth in the sowing area and favorable conditions of weather and rainfall, during the current marketing season of 2020-21, there are signs of a significant increase in the production of all the major pulses including gram, lentils, peas and faba beans etc. This time harvesting and preparation of the crop started a little late. As per sources except for parts of Queensland, all other major pulses growing areas of the country received good rainfall at the right time. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4550 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.24% to settled at 33720 while prices down -28 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4525 and below same could see a test of 4505 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4577, a move above could see prices testing 4609.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4505-4609.
* Chana prices dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states.
* Selling of chana at the port was seen better
* Chana arrivals are increasing in the mandis of Maharashtra.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4550 Rupees per 100 kgs.
