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Views On Morning Nifty, Derivative and Rupee comments 28 April 2023 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

Nifty outlook:  

The abundance of bullish continuation patterns had encouraged us to set aside collapse fears so far, and even raise our upside expectations from 17976 to 18300 yesterday. As we are at the upper extremity of a broadening declining wedge that has held prices throughout the year so far, the pace and breadth of moves are likely to change. We will begin this phase, by spotlighting 18110 as a point of vulnerability, which may be acted upon only if the subsequent turn lower extends beyond 17880. Else, expect the Nifty to head into the 18200-300 region or even 18600.  

Derivative:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 17950 for Calls and 17800 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 17950 for Calls and 17800 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 18700 for Calls and 17900 for Puts in weekly and at 18700 for Calls and 17900 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by -37.36%, increased future index shorts by -23.75% and in index options by - 42.53% in Call longs, -50.50% in Call short, -55.34% in Put longs and -62.22% in Put shorts.   

USD-INR outlook:

  The 81.6 objective was achieved too quickly, to expect further downtrend. Additionally, the higher close also takes away a lot from the bearish momentum, raising potential for a swing back higher towards 81.9-82.07. Alternatively, inability to float above 81.69 early in the day, should render the trend sideways with negative bias.   

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