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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 52843 as dollar strengthened 107 as investors' expectations for a pause in interest-rate hikes started to fade in the light of several somewhat hawkish Fed speeches. Even under a "generous" analysis of monetary policy the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates probably by at least another full percentage point, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said, arguing that rate hikes so far "have had only limited effects on observed inflation." Bullard said that despite aggressive actions by the Fed this year the current target policy rate of between 3.75% and 4% remains below the "sufficiently restrictive" level the Fed feels is needed to lower inflation to its 2% target. Swiss gold exports to China and Turkey remained strong in October while shipments to India fell, Swiss customs data showed. Switzerland in October exported 43.7 tonnes of gold worth around $2.4 billion to mainland China, down from 44 tonnes in September, and 31.4 tonnes to Turkey, down from 32.2 tonnes in September. The shipments to Turkey in September were the highest for any month since April 2013, the customs data showed. Exports to India fell to 22.2 tonnes in October from 34.9 tonnes in September. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.55% to settle at 5902 while prices are down -219 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52749 and below same could see a test of 52655 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52965, a move above could see prices testing 53087.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 52655-53087.
* Gold dropped as dollar strengthened 107 as investors' expectations for a pause in interest-rate hikes started to fade
* Fed's Bullard: Even "dovish" policy assumptions require further rate increases
* Markets are now pricing a 50-basis point rate hike in December, and a series of 25 basis point increases next year.
 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.64% at 60978 as investors continued to assess how high the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in its coming meetings. Despite the cooler-than-expected inflation print for October, Fed officials stated that the central bank is not softening its battle against inflation. Data consolidating the easing inflation trend lowered bets on the Federal Reserve's terminal rate. Money markets believe that the Fed will raise its target funds rate by 50bps in its December meeting, slowing from four consecutive 75bps rate hikes delivered since June. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to 222,000 on the week ending November 12th, below expectations of 225,000, pointing to a continuously tight job market and adding leeway for the Federal Reserve to tighten policy, despite the surge in layoffs from large tech companies. Housing starts in the US declined 4.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.425 million in October of 2022, after falling by a downwardly revised 1.3% in September, and compared to market forecasts of 1.41 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US fell to -19.4 in November of 2022 from -8.7 last month, the lowest since May of 2020 and well below market expectations of -6.2. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.86% to settle at 12498 while prices are down -1019 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60524 and below same could see a test of 60069 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61622, a move above could see prices testing 62265.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 60069-62265.
* Silver dropped as investors continued to assess how high the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in its coming meetings.
* Data consolidating the easing inflation trend lowered bets on the Federal Reserve's terminal rate.
* The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to 222,000

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.13% at 6720 as a weakening demand outlook took center stage again after geopolitical tensions eased. Investors fretted about a gloomy economic outlook, with JPMorgan projecting that the US will enter a mild recession next year due to rapid rate rises. U.S. crude stocks fell by more than 5 million barrels in the most recent week, while fuel stocks rose as refiners boosted output to deal with high demand and low inventories. Crude inventories fell by 5.4 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 11 to 435.4 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with expectations for a 440,000-barrel drop. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 2.2 million barrels in the week to 207.9 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 310,000-barrel rise. U.S. commercial crude oil imports fell 895,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the latest week to 5.6 million bpd, the lowest since May 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly Petroleum Status Report. In the U.S. Gulf Coast region, crude imports fell 257,000 bpd last week to 879,000 bpd, the lowest since December 2021. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September rose to 7.72 million barrels per day (bpd) from 7.60 million bpd in August, the International Energy Forum (IEF) said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 95.29% to settle at 11485 while prices are down -217 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6617 and below same could see a test of 6515 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6892, a move above could see prices testing 7065.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6515-7065.
* Crude oil dropped as a weakening demand outlook took center stage again after geopolitical tensions eased.
* U.S. crude stocks drop sharply as refiners pick up activity, EIA says
* U.S. crude imports fall to lowest since May 2021 – EIA
 

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 9.47% at 527.3 as heating demand is set to rise due to colder weather. On the other hand, Freeport LNG export plant in Texas may not return to service this month as repair work and efforts to secure regulatory approvals are still ongoing, making more gas available for domestic use. A few LNG vessels have turned away from Freeport over the past few days on expectations the plant's restart will be delayed until December or later, according to ship tracking data from Refinitiv. Federal pipeline safety regulators released a heavily redacted consultant's report that blamed inadequate operating and testing procedures, human error and fatigue for the June 8 explosion that shut the Freeport plant. Meanwhile, investors were monitoring the situation around the reopening of the Freeport LNG export plant. The plant had been set for a return to service this month but it looks like repair work and efforts to secure regulatory approvals are still ongoing, making more gas available for domestic use. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -29.1% to settle at 6064 while prices are up 45.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 498.6 and below same could see a test of 469.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 544.9, a move above could see prices testing 562.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 469.8-562.4.
* Natural gas traded higher as heating demand is set to rise due to colder weather.
* Freeport LNG export plant in Texas may not return to service this month as repair work and efforts to secure regulatory approvals are still ongoing
* Freeport LNG has said repeatedly said the plant, which shut after an explosion on June 8, would return in November.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.34% at 680.9 suppressed by a firmer dollar and fading hopes for a pause in U.S. interest rate hikes. Firm U.S. retail data cast doubt on market bets that inflation is in retreat and the Federal Reserve might not hike rates much further. Mining giant BHP Group said that a recently announced strike at Chile's Escondida mine, the world's largest copper mine, was unjustifiable as the company complies with safety standards and contractual commitments. India is set to be one of the world's fastest growing copper markets in 2022, bucking the trend of softening demand expansion elsewhere, including top consumer China, amid a slowing global economy. Despite the global downturn, India's economy is humming across manufacturing to infrastructure and property sectors, as pent-up demand post the COVID-19 pandemic, rising income and a series of government policies have boosted consumption. Refined copper consumption in India during January-August this year jumped 45% from 2021 to 435,466 tonnes, outpacing 4% growth globally and a 5% uptick in China in the same period, World Bureau of Metal Statistics data showed. New home prices in China fell at their fastest pace in over seven years in October, that underscored deepening contraction in the construction sector and followed weak manufacturing data on Tuesday. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.88% to settle at 4918 while prices are down -9.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 677.5 and below same could see a test of 674.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 686.9, a move above could see prices testing 692.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 674.1-692.9.
* Copper prices dropped suppressed by a firmer dollar and fading hopes for a pause in U.S. interest rate hikes.
* New home prices in China fell at their fastest pace in over seven years in October
* India bucks global trend with robust copper demand this year

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.52% at 268.3 as a spike in COVID-19 cases in the southern province of Guangdong sparked worries over a return to broader lockdowns. The surge in cases tempered recent enthusiasm over signs that China was easing its strict policy on COVID-related restrictions. Data showed that the China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02% or 10,200 mt MoM and up 14,800 mt or 2.96% YoY. From January to October 2022, the combined refined zinc output stood at 4.93 million mt, a decrease of 2.48% year-on-year. Survey showed that China refined zinc output in October gained palpably on a monthly basis, but it was still slightly less than expected. Reasons for the increase in output vary. Large smelters in Hunan ramped up the production, and some small smelters in Hunan and Guangxi resumed normal production; the overall output in Yunnan climbed thanks to the production uplift in some large smelters in spite of power rationing; a large smelter in Inner Mongolia ramped up the output after digesting the excessive zinc sheet arising from previous production reduction; a smelter in Xinjiang resumed the production from maintenance, thought it did not reach full capacity due to the impact of the pandemic. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.24% to settle at 2063 while prices are down -4.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 266.1 and below same could see a test of 263.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 271.7, a move above could see prices testing 274.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 263.7-274.9.
* Zinc dropped as a spike in COVID-19 cases in the southern province of Guangdong sparked worries over a return to broader lockdowns.
* The surge in cases tempered recent enthusiasm over signs that China was easing its strict policy on COVID-related restrictions.
* Data showed that the China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02%

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 207.45 as the production resumption and commissioning in Sichuan, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia was progressing smoothly. Aluminium production cuts in Henan reached 80,000 mt, and remained stable in the other regions. Daily aluminium production fell slightly. The spot inventory in mainstream markets in China was low due to delayed arrivals from places like Xinjiang, but is likely to improve with the pick-up of transportation efficiency. But the inventory will remain low in the short term. On the macro front, boosted by supporting real estate policies in China, unexpected fall in US October PPI, as well as falling US Dollar index, the market risk appetite improved. On the supply side, LME has decided against banning Russian metal from being traded and stored in its warehouses because a substantial share of the market is still planning to buy the country's metal in 2023. China's primary aluminium production climbed 9.5% year-on-year in October, fuelled by growing exports and relaxed curbs on power consumption compared with last year. The country produced 3.45 million tonnes of primary aluminium last month, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, an eighth straight monthly rise versus 2021 numbers as the industry recovers from electricity usage restrictions last year that triggered sharp declines in output from the world's top producer. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.21% to settle at 3650 while prices are down -1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205.7 and below same could see a test of 203.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.1, a move above could see prices testing 210.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.9-210.7.
* Aluminum dropped as the production resumption and commissioning in Sichuan, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia was progressing smoothly.
* Aluminium production cuts in Henan reached 80,000 mt, and remained stable in the other regions.
* LME has decided against banning Russian metal from being traded and stored in its warehouses
 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 955.6 as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.4 Rupees to end at 1102.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.26% to settle at 800 while prices are down -0.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 951.9 and below same could see a test of 948.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 960.5, a move above could see prices testing 965.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 948.3-965.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -20.4 Rupees to end at 1102.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.91% at 7624 on profit booking after prices gained in last some sessions as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7496.45 Rupees gained 40.2 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.71% to settle at 9265 while prices are down -70 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7562 and below same could see a test of 7500 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7722, a move above could see prices testing 7820.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7500-7820.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained in last some sessions as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7496.45 Rupees gained 40.2 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -2.21% at 24145 amid reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 5% to 10% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. However, due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -96.4 Rupees to end at 24299 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.04% to settle at 6975 while prices are down -545 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23670 and below same could see a test of 23195 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24660, a move above could see prices testing 25175.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23195-25175.
* Jeera dropped amid reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 5% to 10%
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -96.4 Rupees to end at 24299 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.62% at 32770 as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated. The association’s Cotton Crop Committee meeting attributed the decline in domestic consumption to a reduction in operations of mills due to slack demand for yarn and cloth. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 33400 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.83% to settle at 1980 while prices are down -540 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32340 and below same could see a test of 31920 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33240, a move above could see prices testing 33720.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 31920-33720.
* Cotton dropped as India’s domestic cotton demand set to dip 6% in 2022-23
* Spinning mills operated at 40-60 per cent capacity in the first quarter, which may cause cotton consumption to drop
* Data from CFTC showed that speculators cut their net short position on cotton futures
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 10 Rupees to end at 33400 Rupees.

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