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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 50107 as the dollar hovers near 20-year highs on expectations the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive monetary policy path. Two of the Fed's most hawkish policymakers said they favoured another 75bps rate hike later this month, after a higher-than-expected reading of US inflation fired up bets on a possible 100bps rise. The latest data showed that US inflation surged 9.1% in June 2022 from a year ago, hitting its highest level since 1981 and piling pressure on the Federal Reserve to respond more decisively. Gold also weakened despite escalating recession fears, as investors opted for the safe-haven dollar as a hedge against economic uncertainties over the precious metal. India's plain gold jewellery exports to the United Arab Emirates jumped in May and June after the Gulf state allowed duty free imports from the south Asian country, a leading trade body said. The United Arab Emirates and India signed a broad trade and investment pact in February aiming at increasing annual trade between the two nations to $100 billion within five years. India's plain gold jewellery exports to UAE in May jumped 72% from a year ago to 10.48 billion rupees ($131.16 million), while in June the exports jumped 69% to 145.2 billion rupees, the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.18% to settled at 6820 while prices down -121 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49950 and below same could see a test of 49792 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50273, a move above could see prices testing 50438.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49792-50438.
* Gold extended losses as the dollar hovers near 20-year highs on expectations the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive monetary policy path.
* Gold also weakened despite escalating recession fears, as investors opted for the safe-haven dollar as a hedge against economic uncertainties over the precious metal.
* Two of the Fed's most hawkish policymakers said they favoured another 75bps rate hike later this month


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1% at 55587 tracking rise in crude oil and base metals prices as investors digest a batch of economic data, including upbeat retail sales and slower import prices. U.S. retail sales rebounded strongly in June as Americans spent more on gasoline and other goods amid soaring inflation, which could allay fears of an imminent recession but not change the view that economic growth in the second quarter was tepid. Retail sales rose 1.0% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for May was revised up to show sales falling 0.1% instead of 0.3% as previously reported. U.S. import prices increased less than expected in June, likely as a strong dollar helped to curb gains in the costs of goods excluding petroleum products, offering some hopeful sign for an economy struggling with soaring inflation. Import prices rose 0.2% last month after climbing 0.5% in May, the Labor Department said. In the 12 months through June, import prices increased 10.7% after advancing 11.6% in May. Production at U.S. factories dropped for a second straight month in June as output of motor vehicles and a range of other goods declined, suggesting that higher interest rates were hurting the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing output fell 0.5% last month, matching the decline in May, the Federal Reserve said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.05% to settled at 22312 while prices up 552 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 54814 and below same could see a test of 54040 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56081, a move above could see prices testing 56574.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 54040-56574.
* Silver gains tracking rise in crude oil and base metals prices as investors digest a batch of economic data, including upbeat retail sales and slower import prices.
* U.S. retail sales rebounded strongly in June as Americans spent more on gasoline and other goods amid soaring inflation
* U.S. import prices increased less than expected in June


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.87% at 7813 after a U.S. official told an immediate Saudi oil output boost is not expected, with further support from indications that the U.S. central bank could raise interest rates less aggressively than anticipated. The U.S. Federal Reserve's most hawkish policymakers said they favoured a rate increase of 75 basis points at its policy meeting this month, not the bigger increase traders had priced in after a report on Wednesday showed inflation was accelerating. China's refinery throughput in June shrank nearly 10% from a year earlier, with output for the first half of the year down 6% in the first annual decline for the period since at least 2011, data showed. U.S. crude production and petroleum demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected crude production will rise to 11.91 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 12.77 million bpd in 2023 from 11.19 million bpd in 2021. That compares with a record 12.29 million bpd in 2019. The agency also projected petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption would rise from 19.78 million bpd in 2021 to 20.48 million bpd in 2022 and 20.80 million bpd in 2023. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.43% to settled at 3247 while prices up 218 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7615 and below same could see a test of 7417 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7955, a move above could see prices testing 8097.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7417-8097.
* Crude oil rises after a U.S. official told an immediate Saudi oil output boost is not expected
* Prices also got further support from indications that the U.S. central bank could raise interest rates less aggressively than anticipated.
* U.S. crude output and petroleum demand to rise in 2022 – EIA


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 5.25% at 555.6 amid a drop in output and forecasts for hotter weather and more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise to record highs in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 96.23 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 99.98 bcfd in 2023 from a record 93.55 bcfd in 2021. The agency also projected gas consumption would rise from 82.98 in 2021 to 85.85 bcfd in 2022 before sliding to 85.38 bcfd in 2023. That compares with a record 85.29 bcfd in 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 96.0 bcfd so far in July from 95.3 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record high of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 1.5 bcfd this week to a preliminary 94.7 bcfd on Friday. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand including exports would rise to around 100.2 bcfd over the next two weeks from 99.2 bcfd this week. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 24.32% to settled at 5675 while prices up 27.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 525.2 and below same could see a test of 494.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 572.1, a move above could see prices testing 588.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 494.7-588.5.
* Natural gas gained amid a drop in output and forecasts for hotter weather and more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise to record highs in 2022 as the economy grows
* EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 96.23 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 99.98 bcfd in 2023



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.29% at 616.4 as Copper inventories in China’s bonded zones decreased by 8,100 mt from last Friday July 8 to 278,300 mt as of July 15. However prices dropped heavily in the week on a stronger dollar and weak demand outlook due to slowing economic growth and imminent rate hikes. Economic growth in top metals consumer China slowed sharply in the second quarter, expanding 0.4% year-on-year and missing expectations, as widespread lockdowns to curb record COVID cases hit industrial activity and consumer spending. Meanwhile, inflation in the United States at the highest since 1981 is seen triggering a jump in rate hike this month, which is expected to slow growth and push up the dollar. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.9% from last Friday, the exchange said. China's June copper imports rose 15.5 % from a month ago to 537,698 tonnes, customs data showed, after demand picked up following the lifting of COVID-19 lockdowns that had hurt manufacturing activity. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in June from 49.6 in May, the first time it rose above the 50-point mark that separates contraction from growth since February. Copper imports were also buoyed by an open arbitrage window between Shanghai and London copper prices in May and June. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.05% to settled at 5468 while prices up 1.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 604.2 and below same could see a test of 592 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 625.4, a move above could see prices testing 634.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 592-634.4.
* Copper gained as Copper inventories in China’s bonded zones decreased by 8,100 mt from last Friday July 8 to 278,300 mt as of July 15.
* However prices dropped heavily in the week on a stronger dollar and weak demand outlook due to slowing economic growth and imminent rate hikes.
* Economic growth in top metals consumer China slowed sharply in the second quarter, expanding 0.4% year-on-year


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.14% at 269.75 as zinc ingot social inventory across seven markets in China totalled 153,700 mt as of Friday July 15, down 3,000 mt from Monday July 11 and 5,200 mt from last Friday July 8. The premiums in Shanghai rose slightly amid falling SHFE zinc prices, though the consumption remained poor. China's central bank stood pat on its medium-term policy rate for a sixth straight month on Friday, as expected, with investors believing that the bank intends to gradually normalise monetary policy after the easing made during COVID lockdowns. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) left the rate on 100 billion yuan ($14.8 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.85% from the previous operation. China's economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter, expanding 0.4% year-on-year and missing expectations, official data showed, as widespread lockdowns to curb record COVID cases hit industrial activity and consumer spending. Gross domestic product (GDP) had been forecast to expand 1.0% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, slowing significantly from 4.8% in the first quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP fell 2.6% in the second quarter, compared with expectations for a 1.5% decline and a revised 1.4% gain in the previous quarter. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.03% to settled at 1375 while prices up 5.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 263.2 and below same could see a test of 256.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 273.6, a move above could see prices testing 277.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 256.7-277.5.
* Zinc prices rose as zinc ingot social inventory in China totalled 153,700 mt, down 3,000 mt
* China central bank keeps medium – term policy rate unchanged for a sixth month
* China's Q2 GDP growth slows sharply to 0.4% y/y



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 204.7 as the social inventory of aluminum ingots in China continued to decline. China's primary aluminium production rose 3.2% to 3.39 million tonnes in June from a year earlier, official data showed, as high global prices spurred an increase in output. June's output marked a slight decrease of 0.9% from the prior month, when the number hit a record high at 3.42 million tonnes, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. China exported 607,443 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in June, down 10.2% from last month's record high at 767,605 tonnes, but still up 71.6% from a year earlier. For the first six months of the year, China produced 19.68 million tonnes of aluminium, up 0.7% from the same period last year, the data also showed. Production at U.S. factories dropped for a second straight month in June as output of motor vehicles and a range of other goods declined, suggesting that higher interest rates were hurting the manufacturing sector. U.S. import prices increased less than expected in June, likely as a strong dollar helped to curb gains in the costs of goods excluding petroleum products, offering some hopeful sign for an economy struggling with soaring inflation. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.94% to settled at 2704 while prices up 0.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 202.6 and below same could see a test of 200.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.4, a move above could see prices testing 208.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.5-208.1.
* Aluminium prices gained as the social inventory of aluminum ingots in China continued to decline.
* China June aluminium output rose 3.2% y/y at 3.39 mln tonnes
* Production at U.S. factories dropped for a second straight month in June


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.08% at 1004.9 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -6.4 Rupees to end at 1120.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.96% to settled at 995 while prices down -11 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 999.1 and below same could see a test of 993.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1012.8, a move above could see prices testing 1020.6.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 993.2-1020.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -6.4 Rupees to end at 1120.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 170.22 in April 2022 showing a rise of 23.31%.
* In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.61% at 7702 on profit booking amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices. However, downside seen limited as arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. Turmeric exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has improved by 4 percent at 1.78 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.72 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21. In the month of March 2022 around 15,751.54 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,361.20 in March 2021 showing an increase of 22%. In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,282.53 in April 2021 showing an increase of 4%. In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 15,751.54 in March 2022 showing a decline of 13%. Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022. Crop is reported to be normal. Domestic demand reduced particularly with the new season crop supplies from Marathwada region of Maharashtra during April. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.67 lakh tonnes, revised after crop damage due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during October and November. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8027 Rupees gained 17.2 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.21% to settled at 16810 while prices down -126 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7638 and below same could see a test of 7572 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7812, a move above could see prices testing 7920.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7572-7920.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices.
* However, downside seen limited as arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses.
* In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 15,751.54 in March 2022 showing a decline of 13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8027 Rupees gained 17.2 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 22645 on profit booking after prices seen supported as in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets arrivals have remained low. Big traders and stockiest have been holding to stocks anticipating further increase in prices. Cumin seed exports during the current season are likely to remain low as the current crop is very less this time. Cumin seed exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has declined by 32 percent at 2.17 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.86 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21. In the month of April 2022 around 10,707.38 tonnes cumin seed exported as against 14,595.43 in March 2022 showing a decline of 27%. In view of the international situation of cumin seeds, all the countries of the whole world are not in a position to get cumin from a single country except India. Syria's crop is reported to have come absolutely negligible in the event of drought. Turkey has exited the international cumin market for the last 2 years. In Afghanistan, cumin has grown by 40 to 50% of the current year. Iran's cumin crop has been cut short and the crop there has been over within a few days of arrival. China's demand for cumin is currently sporadic, with China buying 300 containers of Indian cumin in the month of June, the demand is very low at the moment. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.2 Rupees to end at 22497.6 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.02% to settled at 12483 while prices down -190 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22475 and below same could see a test of 22300 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22875, a move above could see prices testing 23100.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22300-23100.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained as in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets arrivals have remained low.
* Syria's crop is reported to have come absolutely negligible in the event of drought.
* Iran's cumin crop has been cut short and the crop there has been over within a few days of arrival.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.2 Rupees to end at 22497.6 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.64% at 42440 after Reports of severe damage to crop due to heavy rains in Gujarat in the last 4 days, most of the sowings have failed. In Punjab, area under cotton cultivation dips to lowest since 2010, also Cotton crop in Punjab is on radar for second straight year as attack of whitefly, pink bollworm seen, as per the report. Spinning Mills Unit is setting up its plant, due to which cotton consumption is increasing continuously. China has decided to buy three to five lac tonnes of cotton from international markets for its state reserves. The U.S. 2022/23 cotton projections show lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. At 2.4 million bales, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are now expected to be 1 million bales lower than in 2021/22. According to Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India, at least 10% higher sowing is expected compared to previous kharif season’s 12 million hectares. Looking at the current trend, cotton sowing in Maharashtra is expected to cross 4.2 million hectares. In Gujarat, it would be around 2.7 million hectares. The cotton acreage in north will be around 1.5 million hectares and the same for southern states is likely to remain at around 3.5-4.0 million hectare. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -350 Rupees to end at 41300 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.49% to settled at 1210 while prices up 1090 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 41600 and below same could see a test of 40750 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 43100, a move above could see prices testing 43750.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 40750-43750.
* Cotton gains after reports of severe damage to crop due to heavy rains in Gujarat in the last 4 days, most of the sowings have failed.
* India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 6.44% to 102.8 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 96.58 lakh hectares in 2021.
* China has decided to buy three to five lac tonnes of cotton from international markets for its state reserves.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -350 Rupees to end at 41300 Rupees.

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