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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 52122 as investors now look ahead to the minutes of the last central bank meeting and the monthly jobs report for clues on the likely path for US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve led a global wave of aggressive interest rate hikes to combat rising prices. Last week, Fed policymakers cemented expectations for further monetary tightening, signaling another 75-basis point rate increase this month. Also, the ECB is expected to start raising rates in July and bring borrowing costs into positive territory in Q3. India increased its import tax on gold in a surprise move that aims to reduce inflows to the world’s second-largest consumer, after the country’s ballooning trade gap pushed its currency to a record low. The import duty on gold was increased to 12.5% from 7.5%, according to a government notice dated June 30. India’s gold purchases had been picking up in the past year after buying slumped during the pandemic and the country had imported the most gold in a decade in 2021, according to the World Gold Council. Physical gold dealers in India offered steep discounts as demand remained weak, with an import tax hike likely to further sap interest, while top consumer China saw activity bounce back slowly as it emerged from COVID-led curbs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.57% to settled at 10967 while prices up 205 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51982 and below same could see a test of 51841 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52282, a move above could see prices testing 52441.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 51841-52441.
* Gold prices remained supported as investors now look ahead to the minutes of the last central bank meeting
* Investors also looking for the monthly jobs report for clues on the likely path for US monetary policy.
* The Federal Reserve led a global wave of aggressive interest rate hikes to combat rising prices.

Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 58488 amid the recent sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields. The dollar edged lower but hovered near record levels due to worries about slowing global growth. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in a month after weak manufacturing and construction spending data helped raise expectations that the Federal Reserve might opt for a less aggressive pace of rate hikes in the months ahead. Traders are also likely to keep an eye on reports on factory orders, the U.S. trade deficit and service sector activity. U.S. hiring is expected to have slowed in June while the minutes from the Fed's June meeting are almost certain to sound hawkish. Global manufacturing struggled in June as higher prices and a darker economic outlook left consumers wary of making purchases, while China's strict COVID-19 lockdowns and Russia's invasion of Ukraine added to supply chain disruptions, surveys showed. From the United States to the euro zone, activity at factories slowed to levels last seen during the initial wave of the pandemic. They were the latest signs pointing to the risk of all-out recession in the global economy, coming after the world's top chipmakers said they were facing waning demand and as central bankers warned of painful interest rate hikes ahead. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.7% to settled at 19764 while prices up 313 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 58198 and below same could see a test of 57908 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58702, a move above could see prices testing 58916.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 57908-58916.
* Silver prices remained supported amid the recent sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields.
* The dollar edged lower but hovered near record levels due to worries about slowing global growth.
* Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in a month after weak manufacturing and construction spending data

Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.36% at 8722 as concerns of tight supply amid lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia outweighed fears of a global recession. Output from the 10 members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in June fell 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 28.52 million bpd, off their pledged increase of about 275,000 bpd. Declines in Nigeria and Libya offset increases by Saudi Arabia and other large producers, and Libya faces further supply disruption due to escalating political unrest, making the likelihood of OPEC meeting its newly increased production quotas even more unlikely. Libya's exports have dropped to between 365,000 bpd and 409,000 bpd, down about 865,000 bpd compared to normal levels, the National Oil Corp said last week. Production at Venezuela's largest refinery, which can process about 645,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), was halted by an electrical fault that caused a blackout, according to five people familiar with the matter. Amuay is the only refinery producing gasoline at the Paraguana Refinery Center (CRP) following a halt in some operations at the neighboring Cardon refinery while a reformer fault is fixed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 27.39% to settled at 6320 while prices up 117 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 8546 and below same could see a test of 8371 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8819, a move above could see prices testing 8917.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 8371-8917.
* Crude oil gains on concerns of tight supply amid lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia
* Libya's exports have dropped to between 365,000 bpd and 409,000 bpd, down about 865,000 bpd compared to normal levels
* Production at Venezuela's largest refinery hit by blackout

Natural gas 
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.1% at 462.9 due to a technical bounce and forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. pipeline safety regulators said they found unsafe conditions at Freeport and will not allow the plant to restart until an outside analysis is complete. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. So long as the plant remains shut, that gas will remain in the United States and allow utilities to boost the country's low stockpiles ahead of next winter. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at a preliminary 95.1 bcfd on the first day of July, the same as the average for June. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand including exports would rise from 94.3 bcfd this week to 96.6 bcfd next week and 100.2 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next week were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.65% to settled at 5007 while prices up 13.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 449.2 and below same could see a test of 435.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 471.4, a move above could see prices testing 480.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 435.6-480.
* Natural gas jumped due to a technical bounce and forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at a preliminary 95.1 bcfd on the first day of July, the same as the average for June.
* The U.S. EIA said utilities added 82 bcf of gas to storage during the week ended June 24.

Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 674.85 as soaring inflation and tepid factory data renewed fears of aggressive rate hikes and global economic slowdown, hitting demand for metals. From the United States to the euro zone, activity at factories slowed to levels last seen during the initial wave of the pandemic. Euro zone inflation hit a record high in June as price pressures broadened, and its peak could still be months away, firming the case for rapid European Central Bank rate hikes starting this month. U.S. manufacturing activity slowed more than expected in June, with a measure of new orders contracting for the first time in two years, signs that the economy was cooling amid aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. Chile's finance minister Mario Marcel introduced a tax reform bill that increases copper mining royalties on companies that produce more than 50,000 tonnes a year and raises taxes on high-income earners. Cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs as coronavirus clusters emerge, posing a new threat to China's economic recovery under the government's strict zero-COVID policy. Global copper smelting activity declined in June, hit by a stoppage in top producer Chile, data from satellite surveillance of metal processing plants showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.83% to settled at 6271 while prices down -4.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 669.9 and below same could see a test of 665 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 680, a move above could see prices testing 685.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 665-685.2.
* Copper dropped as soaring inflation and tepid factory data renewed fears of aggressive rate hikes and global economic slowdown, hitting demand.
* From the United States to the euro zone, activity at factories slowed to levels last seen during the initial wave of the pandemic.
* Global copper smelting activity declined in June, hit by a stoppage in top producer Chile

Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.73% at 281.6 as support seen after zinc ingot social inventory across seven major markets in China stood at around 170,000 mt, down significantly from that as of last Friday. On the supply side, the SHFE/LME price ratio rose to 7.22, and the profits of imported zinc were as high as 1,137.1 yuan/mt in metal content, indicating that the import window for overseas ores has opened. From the United States to the euro zone, activity at factories slowed to levels last seen during the initial wave of the pandemic. The global zinc market moved to a surplus of 10,900 tonnes in April from a revised deficit of 31,700 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 6,300 tonnes in March. During the first four months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 13,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 83,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Zinc stocks in London Metal Exchange (LME) approved warehouses are at their lowest in more than two years due to shortages in Europe where record-high power prices have led to production cuts of the metal used to galvanise steel. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10% to settled at 1773 while prices up 4.8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 277 and below same could see a test of 272.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 284.8, a move above could see prices testing 288.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 272.4-288.
* Zinc gains as support seen after zinc ingot social inventory dropped significantly in China stood at around 170,000 mt.
* The SHFE/LME price ratio rose to 7.22, and the profits of imported zinc were as high as 1,137.1 yuan/mt in metal content
* US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index fell to a two-year low in June.

Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 211.85 as the refineries has slashed its operating capacity due to the tight supply of bauxite, equivalent to a daily loss of 2,200 mt of output. Market players were still worried about a potential economic recession with the release of various economic readings. Euro zone inflation hit a record high in June as price pressures broadened, and its peak could still be months away, firming the case for rapid European Central Bank rate hikes starting this month. U.S. manufacturing activity slowed more than expected in June, with a measure of new orders contracting for the first time in two years, signs that the economy was cooling amid aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. Cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs as coronavirus clusters emerge, posing a new threat to China's economic recovery under the government's strict zero-COVID policy. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for July to September was set at $148 a tonne, down 14% from the previous quarter, to reflect weak demand for automobiles amid a global chip shortage. Japan is Asia's biggest importer of the light metal and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.96% to settled at 2846 while prices up 0.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 209.6 and below same could see a test of 207.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.5, a move above could see prices testing 217.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207.3-217.1.
* Aluminium gains as the refineries has slashed its operating capacity due to the tight supply of bauxite, equivalent to a daily loss of 2,200 mt of output
* U.S. manufacturing activity slowed more than expected in June, with a measure of new orders contracting for the first time in two years
* Euro zone inflation hit a record high in June as price pressures broadened, and its peak could still be months away

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.7% at 1005.7 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -35.5 Rupees to end at 1096.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.57% to settled at 1213 while prices down -17.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 999.4 and below same could see a test of 993.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1015, a move above could see prices testing 1024.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 993.1-1024.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -35.5 Rupees to end at 1096.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry.
* However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.

Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.79% at 8108 as arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. However upside seen limited amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices. Turmeric exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has improved by 4 percent at 1.78 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.72 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21. In the month of March 2022 around 15,751.54 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,361.20 in March 2021 showing an increase of 22%. In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,282.53 in April 2021 showing an increase of 4%. In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 15,751.54 in March 2022 showing a decline of 13%. Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022. Crop is reported to be normal. Domestic demand reduced particularly with the new season crop supplies from Marathwada region of Maharashtra during April. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.67 lakh tonnes, revised after crop damage due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during October and November. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8204.5 Rupees gained 135.7 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.12% to settled at 13070 while prices up 220 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7920 and below same could see a test of 7730 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8230, a move above could see prices testing 8350.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7730-8350.
* Turmeric gained as arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses.
* However, upside seen limited amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices.
* Turmeric exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has improved by 4 percent at 1.78 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.72 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8204.5 Rupees gained 135.7 Rupees.

Jeera 
Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.11% at 21990 as in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets arrivals have remained low. Big traders and stockiest have been holding to stocks anticipating further increase in prices. On daily basis Jeera arrivals in Unjha market were around 5,000 bags, Saurashtra and Gondal market around 800 to 1,000 bags are arriving. Currently, steady demand can be seen from Bangladesh and other Islamic countries. And due to Bakri-Eid in July further increase in demand is expected. Cumin seed exports during the current season are likely to remain low as the current crop is very less this time. Cumin seed exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has declined by 32 percent at 2.17 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.86 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21. In the month of April 2022 around 10,707.38 tonnes cumin seed exported as against 14,595.43 in March 2022 showing a decline of 27%. In the month of April 2022 around 10,707.38 tonnes cumin seed exported as against 31,802.25 in April 2021 showing a decline of 66%. In the month of March 2022 around 14,595.43 tonnes cumin seed exported as against 35,159.96 in March 2021 showing a decline of 141%. Cumin production in Rajasthan and Gujarat remained nearly 90 lakh bags (55 kg per bag). This year expected cumin production of hardly around 55 lakh bags in the country. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 303.25 Rupees to end at 21776.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.35% to settled at 8781 while prices up 455 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21680 and below same could see a test of 21365 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22190, a move above could see prices testing 22385.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21365-22385.
* Jeera prices seen supported as in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets arrivals have remained low.
* Currently, steady demand seen from Bangladesh and due to Bakri-Eid in July further increase in demand is expected.
* On daily basis Jeera arrivals in Unjha market were around 5,000 bags, Saurashtra and Gondal market around 800 to 1,000 bags are arriving.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 303.25 Rupees to end at 21776.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.38% at 40880 as Cotton sowing gained by nearly 3.8% to 64.08 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 61.73 lakh hectares in 2021. Pressure also seen on profit booking as growing recessionary fears raised prospects of lower demand. The United States Department of Agriculture's report showed that 37% of the cotton crop was in a good-to-excellent condition in the week ending June 26. That compares with 52% for the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Speculators cut net long position in cotton futures by 1,485 contracts to 42,786 in the week to June 21, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. Cotton sowing fall nearly 14.76% with 31.83 lakh hectares of area sown against area of 37.37 lakh hectares in 2021. There is a rush among farmers in Gujarat for sowing cotton in anticipation of good returns. Kharif cotton sowing for the season in Gujarat is likely to increase by at least 15% compared to the previous season amid a rush to sow the crop well ahead of its schedule. Farmers had got good prices for cotton in domestic and international markets last season. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -820 Rupees to end at 44090 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.04% to settled at 1642 while prices down -570 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 40520 and below same could see a test of 40150 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 41380, a move above could see prices testing 41870.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 40150-41870.
* Cotton dropped as Cotton sowing gained by nearly 3.8% to 64.08 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 61.73 lakh hectares in 2021.
* Pressure also seen on profit booking as growing recessionary fears raised prospects of lower demand.
* Speculators cut net long position in cotton futures by 1,485 contracts to 42,786 in the week to June 21, data from the CFTC showed
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -820 Rupees to end at 44090 Rupees.

- www.kediaadvisory.com

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