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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.1% at 56126 after a stronger-than-expected US CPI report bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will need to keep pushing interest rates higher to bring down inflation. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed slightly to 6.4% in January from 6.5% in December, the lowest since October 2021 but above market expectations of 6.2%. The latest Fed commentary also showed that policymakers largely backed more rate increases, though Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said the Fed was nearing the point where rates were restrictive enough. Markets now expect the Fed funds rate to peak around 5.26% in July from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. China raised its gold reserves for a third straight month as central banks worldwide bolster their holdings of the safe-haven asset. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased reserves by about 15 tons in January, according to data, pushing its total to 2,025 tons. Russia decided to sell some of its gold to cover the budget deficit in January as income from oil and gas revenues fell. Turkey will suspend some gold imports as part of an emergency plan to mitigate the economic fallout from two earthquakes that hit the country's southern region last week. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.2% to settle at 13466 while prices are down -624 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 55912 and below same could see a test of 55697 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56508, a move above could see prices testing 56889.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55697-56889.
* Gold fell after a stronger-than-expected US CPI report bolstered expectations the Fed will need to keep pushing interest rates higher
* The annual inflation rate in the US slowed slightly to 6.4% in January from 6.5% in December, the lowest since October 2021
* Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said the Fed was nearing the point where rates were restrictive enough.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.25% at 65421 as the dollar rose in the wake of stubbornly high U.S. inflation data and firm words on interest rates from Federal Reserve officials. U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation accelerated month-on-month in January, rising 0.5% as expected, due in part to higher rental and food costs. Year-on-year, prices rose 6.4%. That was down from 6.5% in December but above expectations of 6.2%. The latest Fed commentary also showed that policymakers largely backed more rate increases, though Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said the Fed was nearing the point where rates were restrictive enough. Also, the latest data showed retail sales rebounded more than expected in January, and rose the most since March 2021, highlighting the strength of the economy even in the face of high inflation and interest rates. Retail sales in the US unexpectedly jumped 3% month-over-month in January of 2023, the biggest increase since March of 2021 and way above market forecasts of a 1.8% rise. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased for the first time in six weeks to 6.39% in the week ended February 10th 2023 from 6.18%, which was the lowest since September. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.86% to settle at 14490 while prices are down -830 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65018 and below same could see a test of 64616 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65954, a move above could see prices testing 66488.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 64616-66488.
* Silver dropped as the dollar rose in the wake of stubbornly high U.S. inflation data and firm words on interest rates from Fed officials.
* Persistent U.S. inflation drives up rate expectations
* US CPI inflation accelerated month-on-month in January, rising 0.5% as expected



Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.23% at 6485 on signs of ample U.S. supplies and expectations of further interest rate hikes, though forecasts of higher 2023 demand growth and a potentially tighter market limited losses. China will make up nearly half of this year's oil demand growth after it relaxed its COVID-19 curbs, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, but restrained OPEC+ production could mean a supply deficit in the second half. "Supply from OPEC+ is projected to contract with Russia pressured by sanctions," the agency said in its monthly oil report. "World oil supply looks set to exceed demand through the first half of 2023, but the balance could quickly shift to deficit as demand recovers and some Russian output is shut in.” Stocks of crude oil in the United States jumped by 10.507 million barrels in the week ended February 10th, 2023, following a 2.184 million barrels drop in the previous week, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. It was the highest weekly gain since the first week of January 2023, compared with market expectations of a 0.321 million barrels increase. OPEC has revised its 2023 oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels per day, citing higher demand from China. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -27.57% to settle at 3056 while prices are down -81 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6416 and below same could see a test of 6347 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6544, a move above could see prices testing 6603.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6347-6603.
* Crudeoil dropped on signs of ample U.S. supplies and expectations of further interest rate hikes
* Libya to increase oil production to 2 mln bpd
* Resurgent China will drive 2023 oil demand but deficit could loom – IEA


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.39% at 208.5 on forecasts for lower demand than previously expected over the next two weeks. That price decline came despite forecasts for colder weather in late February, an increase in the amount of gas going to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to an eight-month high, and a decline in gas output so far this month. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to reach 13.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday, the highest since March 2022, as Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas pulled in more gas as it prepares to exit an eight-month outage caused by a fire in June 2022, according to data provider Refinitiv. Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was on track to pull in 0.7 bcfd of feedgas on Tuesday, up from 0.5 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv. Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has fallen from 98.3 bcfd in January to 97.0 bcfd so far in February, after extreme cold earlier in the month froze oil and gas wells in several producing basins. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 1 except for some cold days around Feb. 17-18 and Feb. 23-25. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.54% to settle at 32786 while prices are down -5.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 205.5 and below same could see a test of 202.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.2, a move above could see prices testing 217.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 202.4-217.8.
* Natural gas slid on forecasts for lower demand than previously expected over the next two weeks.
* However downside seen limited from a decline in gas output this month
* Freeport LNG, was on track to pull in 0.7 bcfd of feedgas on Tuesday, up from 0.5 bcfd on Monday.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.32% at 767.9 as dollar rose after a stronger-than-expected US CPI report bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will need to keep pushing interest rates higher to bring down inflation. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed slightly to 6.4% in January from 6.5% in December, the lowest since October 2021. The latest Fed commentary also showed that policymakers largely backed more rate increases, though Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said the Fed was nearing the point where rates were restrictive enough. The People's Bank of China will encourage financial institutions to increase lending to private enterprises. The PBOC also said it will deepen the opening up of the country's bond and derivatives market, promote revisions to corporate bond management rules, and strengthen financial support for home rental. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total CNY 499 billion via a one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) to some financial institutions and kept the interest rate unchanged at 2.75% on Wednesday. With CNY 300 billion of MLF loans maturing on the same day, the operation resulted in a net CNY 199 billion fresh fund injection into the banking system. The central bank also pumped CNY 203 billion through seven-day reverse repos while keeping borrowing cost unchanged at 2%. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.72% to settle at 3894 while prices are down -10.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 763.7 and below same could see a test of 759.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 774.2, a move above could see prices testing 780.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 759.6-780.6.
* Copper dropped as dollar rose after a stronger-than-expected US CPI report
* Citi revises copper 0-3month price forecast to $8,500/t from $10,000/t
* China central bank: will encourage increased lending to private enterprises


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.17% at 268.8 after Citi lowered their zinc price forecast for the next three months to $2,900 a tonne from $3,500. The hawkish speeches of Fed officials put pressure on metal prices. China’s zinc concentrate output fell in January due to closures during CNY holidays. Zinc concentrate output stood at 128,600 mt in metal content in January, down 58,300 mt in metal content month-on-month but up 2,000 mt in metal content year-on-year. The overall operating rates of zinc concentrate were 50.9%, down 26.4% on the month. In 2023, the production capacity of new samples was adjusted from 3.249 million mt/year to 3.262 million mt/year, an increase of 13,000 mt/year. China imported 415,200 mt of zinc concentrates in December 2022, down 7.58% on the month, but up 72.8% on the year. The imports totalled 4.13 million mt last year, a year-on-year increase of 13.34%. Prices of London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc for delivery tomorrow traded at a large premium over prices for the following day due to buying fuelled by nervousness about availability in the LME system as stocks hit historic lows. The phenomenon in which metal is priced more richly in the near term than further out, known as backwardation, is often seen as a sign of underlying tightness in the market. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.7% to settle at 2537 while prices are down -5.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 267 and below same could see a test of 265 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 272, a move above could see prices testing 275.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265-275.
* Zinc prices dropped after Citi lowered their zinc price forecast for the next three months to $2,900 a tonne from $3,500.
* Historically low stocks behind spike in zinc price for delivery tomorrow
* The SHFE/LME zinc price ratio slipped to around 7.1, expanding import losses to above 3,500 yuan/mt.



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.01% at 211.6 pressured by weak demand in China and a rapid build-up of inventories in exchange warehouses. Aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses have risen to 602,150 tonnes from 375,950 tonnes in mid-January. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses are at 268,984 tonnes, against 95,881 tonnes on Dec. 30. Meanwhile, a wave of speculative investment has slowed, with $2.3 billion leaving base metals markets last week. Meanwhile, fears that higher interest rates will be needed to curb stickier than expected inflation continue to pressure stock markets and boosted the dollar, making dollar-priced. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total CNY 499 billion via a one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) to some financial institutions and kept the interest rate unchanged at 2.75% on Wednesday. With CNY 300 billion of MLF loans maturing on the same day, the operation resulted in a net CNY 199 billion fresh fund injection into the banking system. The central bank also pumped CNY 203 billion through seven-day reverse repos while keeping borrowing cost unchanged at 2%. The People's Bank of China will encourage financial institutions to increase lending to private enterprises. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.75% to settle at 2869 while prices are down -2.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 210.7 and below same could see a test of 209.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.2, a move above could see prices testing 214.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 209.7-214.7.
* Aluminium prices fell pressured by weak demand in China and a rapid build-up of inventories in exchange warehouses.
* Aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses have risen to 602,150 tonnes from 375,950 tonnes in mid-January.
* Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses are at 268,984 tonnes, against 95,881 tonnes on Dec. 30.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 996.2 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -8.5 Rupees to end at 1158.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.26% to settle at 674 while prices are up 2.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 993.2 and below same could see a test of 990.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 998.2, a move above could see prices testing 1000.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 990.1-1000.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -8.5 Rupees to end at 1158.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.35% at 7052 on reports that production is projected lower by 5 per cent in Telangana due to overall drop in acreage and 20 per cent in Karnataka due to rot disease. The country’s production is estimated at 13.14 lt against 13.29 lt with heavy rains waterlogging the fields and affecting the output. The area under cultivation is lower in most parts of the country, barring Maharashtra. However, there has been no major pest attack and hence, due to the rise in overall area under the crop, the production was expected to be 10 per cent higher. Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6974.5 Rupees dropped -10.75 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.97% to settle at 13410 while prices are up 162 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6912 and below same could see a test of 6770 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7126, a move above could see prices testing 7198.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6770-7198.
* Turmeric gains on reports that production is projected lower by 5 per cent in Telangana and 20 per cent in Karnataka
* Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6974.5 Rupees dropped -10.75 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.79% at 31040 amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -355.85 Rupees to end at 30893.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.58% to settle at 4140 while prices are up 545 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 30325 and below same could see a test of 29605 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31450, a move above could see prices testing 31855.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29605-31855.
* Jeera prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -355.85 Rupees to end at 30893.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

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