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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 50433 as hopes that the Federal Reserve might slow the pace of rate hikes after mixed U.S. jobs data helped offset pressure from a robust dollar. Gold posted its best day in nearly a month on Friday after U.S. data showed moderate wage growth in August and a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% suggested the labor market was starting to loosen. The European Central Bank is due to meet later this week, where it is expected to deliver a large 75 basis-point interest rate hike to tame record high inflation. Australia's Perth Mint increased gold product sales in July by 21.5% from the previous month. Monthly sales of gold coins and minted bars increased to 79,305 ounces from 65,281 ounces in June. A deepening energy crisis in Europe that heightened recessionary risks in the region also spurred safe-haven buying for the greenback, pressuring gold. US employers hired slightly more workers than expected in August, although the unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 3.7% and wages gained slightly less than anticipated. This drove gold bulls to step in amid a brief pullback in the dollar on Friday, but expectations that the US Federal Reserve will stick to an aggressive plan to stamp out inflation prompted market caution. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.24% to settled at 11970 while prices up 65 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50384 and below same could see a test of 50335 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50502, a move above could see prices testing 50571.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50335-50571.
* Gold firms on hopes of less aggressive Fed
* A deepening energy crisis in Europe that heightened recessionary risks in the region also spurred safe-haven buying for the greenback.
* Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for Sept. 20-21.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.69% at 53390 as traders reassessed the outlook for US interest rates following a lackluster jobs report. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the US central bank’s priority of bringing inflation down to the 2% level, stating that borrowing costs will be at a restrictive level for a prolonged period even if it hurts growth, sending the greenback to over 20-year highs. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is said to consider a bigger 75 basis point rate hike to tackle inflation ahead of its policy meeting next week, also contributing to the flight away from precious metals. Euro fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in 20 years after Russia extended a halt on gas flows through a major pipeline to Europe, sparking further fears of energy rationing in the region as winter approaches. China's COVID-19 woes and a slew of weak European data released earlier in the data also sparked upside support. Chinese authorities extended Covid-19 lockdowns of Chengdu and Shenzhen, fueling anxieties that restrictions initially planned for days could extend into weeks or longer as occurred in Shanghai this year. Australia's Perth Mint increased silver product sales jumped by more than 60%. Sales of silver products were at 2,465,513 ounces in July, up nearly 62% from the previous month to their highest since September 2015. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.01% to settled at 27382 while prices up 368 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 53147 and below same could see a test of 52904 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53609, a move above could see prices testing 53828.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 52904-53828.
* Silver prices rose as traders reassessed the outlook for US interest rates following a lackluster jobs report.
* China's COVID-19 woes and a slew of weak European data released earlier in the data also sparked upside support
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the US central bank’s priority of bringing inflation down to the 2% level


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.18% at 7119 as OPEC+ producers agreed a small oil production cut to bolster prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, will reduce output by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), amounting to only 0.1% of global demand, for October and also agreed they could meet any time to adjust production before the next scheduled meeting on Oct. 5. Top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia last month flagged the possibility of output cuts to address what it sees as exaggerated oil price declines. Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer and a key OPEC+ member, does not support a production cut at this time and the producer group is likely to decide to keep output steady. Oil prices have fallen in the past three months from multi-year highs hit in March, pressured by concerns that interest rate increases and COVID-19 curbs in parts of China could slow global economic growth and dent oil demand. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to August 30, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group cut its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 10,607 contracts to 168,431 during the period. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.99% to settled at 6658 while prices up 152 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7054 and below same could see a test of 6989 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7207, a move above could see prices testing 7295.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6989-7295.
* Crude oil prices jump as OPEC+ agrees small oil output cut
* OPEC+ agrees to cut oil output targets by 100,000 bpd in October
* Iranian crude exports and possible recession are downside risks


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.19% at 697.8 on forecasts for demand to ease as the weather is expected to turn less hot. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 96.7 bcfd this week to 93.1 bcfd next week. The market initially pared gains after a federal report showed U.S. utilities added 61 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 26. The build came despite the relatively warmer conditions, with around 85 cooling degree days (CDDs) recorded last week as per Refinitiv data. This was more than the 30-year normal of 79 CDDs for the period. CDDs, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). The restart delay at the fire-hit Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, leaves more fuel in the U.S. for utilities to refill storage. The second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut. Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were mostly down due to comfortable storage levels, price cap concerns and continued EU gas demand reduction proposals. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.09% to settled at 4336 while prices down -8.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 689.4 and below same could see a test of 681.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 712.7, a move above could see prices testing 727.7.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 681.1-727.7.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for demand to ease as the weather is expected to turn less hot.
* Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 96.7 bcfd this week to 93.1 bcfd next week.
* The market initially pared gains after a federal report showed U.S. utilities added 61 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.06% at 640.35 as support came after China's central bank said it will cut the amount of foreign exchange reserves that financial institutions must hold. The People's Bank of China said it would cut the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 200 basis points (bps) to 6% from 8% beginning Sept. 15. The PBOC previously cut the FX reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 100 basis points in April, in a bid to rein in a sliding yuan and make it less expensive for banks to hold dollars. Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, expects its output of the red metal to fall further next year amid project delays. Codelco lowered its copper production outlook for 2022 to about 1.5 million tonnes last week, blaming lower recovery levels at some of its mines and ore grades at the Chuquicamata site. Chile's copper production from state-owned giant Codelco fell 6.5% in July to reach 128,000 tonnes, government body Cochilco said. Production at Collahuasi, a joint venture of Anglo American and Glencore, dropped 12.4% on a year-on-year basis to 47,300 tonnes. Copper output from Escondida, which is controlled by Australian mining giant, fell 1.8% to 81,400 tonnes, Cochilco said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.91% to settled at 5875 while prices up 6.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 635.4 and below same could see a test of 630.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 643.4, a move above could see prices testing 646.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 630.4-646.4.
* Copper gains as support came after China's central bank said it will cut the amount of foreign exchange reserves that financial institutions must hold.
* Copper output from Chile's Codelco to fall further in 2023
* Chilean copper production falls in July


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.34% at 287.8 as PBOC cuts forex reserve requirement ratio by two ppts to 6% from 8%. Zinc ingot social inventory across seven markets in China totaled 121,700 mt last Friday, down 1,800 mt from a week ago. Traders reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve rate hikes following a lackluster US jobs report, while remaining cautious about anti-virus lockdowns in top metals consumer China that weakened the demand outlook. US employers hired slightly more workers than expected in August, although the unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 3.7% and wages gained slightly less than anticipated. In China, the southern tech hub of Shenzhen said it will adopt tiered Covid control measures starting on Monday, while the southwestern metropolis of Chengdu extended lockdown curbs to conduct more mass testing until Wednesday. The global zinc market saw a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June from a revised deficit of 1,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in May. During the first six months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 27,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 4,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 1474 while prices up 3.8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 285.4 and below same could see a test of 282.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 290.4, a move above could see prices testing 292.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 282.9-292.9.
* Zinc prices rose as PBOC cuts forex reserve requirement ratio by two ppts to 6% from 8%
* Zinc ingot social inventory across seven markets in China totaled 121,700 mt last Friday, down 1,800 mt
* Global zinc market sees deficit of 1,400 T in June, says ILZSG



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 202.35 amid persisting COVID-19 curbs in China weighed on sentiment. The jobs data showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in August, but moderate wage growth and a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% could ease pressure on the Fed to deliver a third 75-basis-point interest rate hike this month. China's southern tech hub Shenzhen started tiered anti-coronavirus restriction measures from Monday after a weekend lockdown, while the metropolis Chengdu extended its COVID-19 lockdown that started last Thursday. China will step up policy support for the economy, the country's major economic policymakers said, stressing that the third quarter is crucial for rolling out policy measures as evidence points to a further loss of economic momentum. The comments suggested urgency among policymakers to stave off an economic downturn made worse by fresh COVID flare-ups and an embattled property sector. China will accelerate infrastructure investment and attract social capital into key projects, said Yang Yinkai, Deputy Secretary General of the National Development and Reform Commission, at a press conference in Beijing. China's economy narrowly avoided contracting in the second quarter amid widespread lockdowns and a deepening property crisis, which have badly damaged consumer and business confidence. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.65% to settled at 4972 while prices down -0.7 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 201.5 and below same could see a test of 200.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 203.7, a move above could see prices testing 205.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.7-205.1.
* Aluminum remained under pressure amid persisting COVID-19 curbs in China weighed on sentiment.
* China vows more policy support for COVID – ravaged economy
* Caixin China General Services PMI inched down to 55.0 in August 2022 from July’s 15-month high of 55.5.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.56% at 1004.5 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 169.93 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decline of over 33%. In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 5.5 Rupees to end at 1126.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.68% to settled at 1607 while prices up 15.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 996.8 and below same could see a test of 989 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1010.6, a move above could see prices testing 1016.6.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 989-1016.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 5.5 Rupees to end at 1126.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021.
* In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 7206 amid profit booking on report of better sowing. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-June 2022 has rose by 23.44 percent at 49,435.38 tonnes as compared to 40,049.06 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206.00 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,138.35 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,576.68 tonnes in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.23%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7438.8 Rupees gained 32.05 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.12% to settled at 7590 while prices down -62 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7132 and below same could see a test of 7056 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7264, a move above could see prices testing 7320.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7056-7320.
* Turmeric dropped amid profit booking on report of better sowing.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7438.8 Rupees gained 32.05 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 25635 amid profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 42.98 percent at 47,190.98 tonnes as compared to 82,762.08 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 44.94%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. In the month of May 2022 around 14,894.62 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 20,693.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a decrease of 28.03%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -203.8 Rupees to end at 24614.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.34% to settled at 5307 while prices down -135 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25430 and below same could see a test of 25225 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25780, a move above could see prices testing 25925.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 25225-25925.
* Jeera dropped amid profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -203.8 Rupees to end at 24614.65 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -3.21% at 36470 as fresh lockdowns in China clouded the demand outlook. India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 6.61% to 125.69 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 117.68 lakh hectares in 2021. Cotton crops in India, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. In Gujarat Cotton sowing grows by nearly 13% with 2,538,383.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,250,743.00 hectares. In its monthly supply-demand report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year. Hot and dry weather conditions in key growing areas in the United States have threatened the condition of the natural fiber crop and raised supply concerns. The USDA's lower global output estimates also reflected a reduction of about 100,000 bales "as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects there." However, the agency said it expects the lower U.S. production projections to result in a 2 million bale reduction in exports compared with July, and a 200,000 bale dip in mill use. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. Whereas in Maharashtra and Telangana excess rainfall in July, over the major cotton-growing districts has affected the crop. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -610 Rupees to end at 44240 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.71% to settled at 667 while prices down -1210 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 35940 and below same could see a test of 35400 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37260, a move above could see prices testing 38040.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 35400-38040.
* Cotton prices dropped as fresh lockdowns in China clouded the demand outlook
* Pakistan cotton crop cut by 19% due to floods – USDA
* USDA cuts China's 2022/23 cotton import projection
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -610 Rupees to end at 44240 Rupees.

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