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Gold 

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 50070 as a rising dollar and bets for more aggressive interest rate hikes eroded its appeal. Gold is considered a safe store of value amid economic uncertainties but investors usually opt for interest-yielding assets as central banks hike rates. Mirroring investors' sentiment, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to 31,294,673 ounces, its lowest since January. Investors also took stock of data that showed U.S. weekly jobless claims dropped while layoffs fell in August. The US nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show the economy added 300K positions in August, strengthening the case for aggressive tightening by the Fed to combat inflation. Some Fed officials have been reiterating the fed funds rate needs to raise to at least 4% by early next year and stay there to curb soaring inflation, in line with recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Money markets are now pricing a 72% chance the Fed will hike rates by 75 bps at its September meeting. Asia's factory activity slumped in August as China's zero-COVID curbs and cost pressures continued to hurt businesses, surveys showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.01% to settled at 12486 while prices down -344 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49867 and below same could see a test of 49663 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50284, a move above could see prices testing 50497.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 49663-50497.
* Gold prices fell below the key $1,700 level for the first time since July as a rising dollar and bets for more   aggressive interest rate hikes eroded its appeal.
* Fed officials have been reiterating the fed funds rate needs to raise to at least 4% by early next year and   stay there to curb soaring inflation
* U.S. weekly jobless claims drop in August

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.03% at 52602 as firmer dollar weighed after several Fed officials reiterated their support for further interest-rate hikes to combat inflation. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that policy makers should raise rates beyond 4 percent and deliver no rate cuts in 2023. The latest data showed weekly jobless claims fell unexpectedly to a 9-week low at the end of August, suggesting the economic slowdown is not yet triggering widespread job losses. The US nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show the economy added 300K positions in August, strengthening the case for aggressive tightening by the Fed to combat inflation. Some Fed officials have been reiterating the fed funds rate needs to raise to at least 4% by early next year and stay there to curb soaring inflation, in line with recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Money markets are now pricing a 72% chance the Fed will hike rates by 75 bps at its September meeting. Markets currently are pricing in only a 1-in-3 chance of the funds rate climbing above 4 percent next year. Elsewhere in Europe, French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday the European Central Bank should show determination with interest-rate increases while also acting in an orderly and predictable way. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.78% to settled at 28297 while prices down -549 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 51972 and below same could see a test of 51343 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53115, a move above could see prices testing 53629.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 51343-53629.
* Silver hits lowest level since June 2020
* Pressure seen as firmer dollar weighed after several Fed officials reiterated their support for further   interest-rate hikes to combat inflation.
* US 10-Year treasury yield climbs to 2-1/2-month high

Crude oil 

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.75% at 6927 as investors were worried that aggressive interest rate hikes from global policymakers would slow economies and dent fuel demand. OPEC oil output rose in August to its highest since the early days of the pandemic in 2020 as Libyan facilities recovered from unrest and Gulf members raised output to unwind a production cut deal with allies. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has pumped 29.58 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey found, up 690,000 bpd from July and the highest since April 2020. OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, are unwinding output cuts made in 2020 as the pandemic took hold, though many are struggling to deliver the full volumes. Output has been undershooting OPEC+'s pledged hikes for months. The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee sees a deficit in the 2023 oil market of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) under its base case, and has taken into account under-production of crude by some member countries in its oil market forecasts. The JTC sees the deficit widening to 1.8 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2023, the document showed. The committee noted preliminary data for OECD commercial oil stocks will remain below the five-year average for the remainder of 2022 and for 2023, the document added. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 57.73% to settled at 9811 while prices down -270 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6838 and below same could see a test of 6749 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7083, a move above could see prices testing 7239.
 Trading Ideas:

*  Crude oil trading range for the day is 6749-7239.
* Crude oil prices dropped as investors were worried that aggressive interest rate hikes from global       policymakers would slow economies and dent fuel demand.
* OPEC oil output in August hits highest since pandemic's early days
* OPEC output rises 690,000 bpd from July, with gains led by Libya
 

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.15% at 740.7 despite a bigger-than-expected storage build as focus returned to warmer weather that would require more of the fuel to cool homes and businesses. Russia shut down natural gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, stoking Europe's energy crisis as it hits back against Western sanctions over the Ukraine war. State-owned energy giant Gazprom warned earlier in August that the pipeline, which carries gas from Russia to Germany, would close for planned maintenance works for three days. Gazprom had already slashed Nord Stream 1's capacity to 40%, and then to 20%, saying it was waiting for the delivery of a repaired turbine. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that domestic natural-gas supplies rose by 61 billion cubic feet for the week ended Aug. 26. Total working gas stocks in storage stand at 2.640 trillion cubic feet, down 228 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 338 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, the government said. Gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 98.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), its highest since August 8th, according to data provider Refinitiv. A series of heatwaves this summer across the US has sent demand from gas-fired power plants to all-time highs and expectations of increased demand for US LNG exports amid growing concerns of European shortages have been supporting prices. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.84% to settled at 5789 while prices up 8.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 722.4 and below same could see a test of 704 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 754.1, a move above could see prices testing 767.4.
Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 704-767.4.
* Natural gas gained supported by above-normal temperatures, which boosted cooling demand and     overall  higher European gas prices.
* Gas supplies via Nord Stream from Russia to Europe have been temporarily suspended
* Norway's natural gas production could set new record this year.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -2.4% at 633.85 as recession worries and a highly uncertain demand outlook weighed on sentiment. The US Federal Reserve signaled that the fight against inflation would take priority over growth concerns, while the European Central Bank is expected to tighten policy more aggressively to combat record high inflation despite an energy crisis. China’s economic woes also clouded the outlook further, as the world’s top metals consumer adheres to a strict zero-Covid strategy that is derailing recovery. These factors have overshadowed supply-side challenges such as low inventories and reduced production. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 8.6% year on year to 430,028 tonnes in July, the country's statistics agency INE said. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to 49.5 in August 2022 from July’s of 50.4, missing market forecasts of 50.2, and pointing to the first contraction in the sector since May. The latest print reflected the impact of widespread COVID lockdowns and electricity shortages. Output grew at the softest pace in three months, new orders fell for the first time since May; while employment fell for the fifth month running. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.98% to settled at 6338 while prices down -15.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 628.4 and below same could see a test of 622.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 643.7, a move above could see prices testing 653.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 622.9-653.5.
* Copper extends losses on growth worries
* Chile copper output falls 8.6% in July, industrial output down 5.1%
* Fed signaled that the fight against inflation would take priority over growth concerns, while ECB is     expected to tighten policy more aggressively.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -5.79% at 291.95 on concerns about lower demand for the metal mostly used to galvanize steel. Last month, it rallied as high electricity prices forced one of Europe’s biggest smelters to halt production. The European Union is now moving to intervene in the energy market. Pressure seen as hawkish voices from US Fed officials weighed on the market sentiment. Pressure seen as demand outlook was clouded further by fresh data from major global economies that signaled tepid growth. LME inventory rose 75 mt to 77,050 mt, up 0.1%. August refined zinc output is estimated at 477,500 mt amid influences like power rationing and maintenance, lower than the original target set at the beginning of the month. The output is likely to rebound to 530,000 mt with the recovery of power and ore supply. The pandemic resurged in some places in China, which is worth attention though it has not impacted the production yet. The temperature in Sichuan has dropped and rainfall has increased recently, the power shortage in the province has eased, and local production has begun to resume. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the metal’s production dropped nearly three per cent in the first half of this year to 5.96 million tonnes (mt) compared with 6.15 mt a year ago. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.21% to settled at 1324 while prices down -17.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 285.7 and below same could see a test of 279.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 303.5, a move above could see prices testing 315.
Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 279.4-315.
* Zinc dropped on concerns about lower demand for the metal mostly used to galvanize steel.
* Pressure seen as demand outlook was clouded further by fresh data from major global economies that   signaled tepid growth.
* August refined zinc output is estimated at 477,500 mt amid influences like power rationing and maintenance

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.45% at 203.25 after China’s lockdown of megacity Chengdu added to demand woes. The Chinese metropolis of Chengdu will lock down its 21 million residents to contain a Covid-19 outbreak. The capital of Sichuan will be the biggest city to be shut down since Shanghai’s bruising two-month lockdown earlier this year. There is concern about the outlook for metals demand as Europe’s energy crisis, tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and China’s Covid Zero strategy look set to undermine global economic growth. That’s being partly offset by supply-side risks, with exchange stockpiles low and many European smelters hobbled by the power crunch. Euro zone inflation rose to another record high at 9.1% in August, beating expectations and solidifying the case for further aggressive rate hikes by the European Central Bank. Factory activity in China, the world's biggest metals consumer, shrank amid COVID-19 flare-ups and a deep crisis in the property sector. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to 49.5 in August 2022 from July’s of 50.4, missing market forecasts of 50.2, and pointing to the first contraction in the sector since May. The latest print reflected the impact of widespread COVID lockdowns and electricity shortages. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.08% to settled at 4514 while prices down -3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 201.5 and below same could see a test of 199.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 205.4, a move above could see prices testing 207.6.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.8-207.6.
* Aluminum dropped after China’s lockdown of megacity Chengdu added to demand woes.
* There is concern about the metals demand as tighter monetary policy by Fed and China’s Covid Zero   strategy look set to undermine global economic growth.
* The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to 49.5 in August 2022 from July’s of 50.4

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 978.8 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 169.93 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decline of over 33%. In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.5 Rupees to end at 1117.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 1607 while prices up 2.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 972.4 and below same could see a test of 965.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 984.2, a move above could see prices testing 989.5.
Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 965.9-989.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.5 Rupees to end at 1117.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to   523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021.
* In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May  2022 showing a drop of 46%.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.39% at 7150 as market sentiment improved after the Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. However upside seen limited on report of better sowing. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-June 2022 has rose by 23.44 percent at 49,435.38 tonnes as compared to 40,049.06 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206.00 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,138.35 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,576.68 tonnes in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.23%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7406.75 Rupees dropped -14.25 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.77% to settled at 11625 while prices up 98 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7002 and below same could see a test of 6856 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7232, a move above could see prices testing 7316.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6856-7316.
* Turmeric gained as market sentiment improved after PAC sees no unusual price change, rejects call for   ban on turmeric futures
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada   region.
* In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes   in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%.
*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7406.75 Rupees dropped -14.25 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 25180 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 42.98 percent at 47,190.98 tonnes as compared to 82,762.08 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 44.94%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. In the month of May 2022 around 14,894.62 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 20,693.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a decrease of 28.03%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -168.85 Rupees to end at 24618.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.05% to settled at 6465 while prices up 25 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24815 and below same could see a test of 24455 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25395, a move above could see prices testing 25615.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24455-25615.
* Jeera prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding   stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh   tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -168.85 Rupees to end at 24618.65 Rupees  per 100 kg.

Cotton 

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.96% at 38020 as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 6.54% to 124.55 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 116.91 lakh hectares in 2021. Cotton crops in India, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. In Gujarat Cotton sowing grows by nearly 13% with 2,538,383.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,250,743.00 hectares. In Rajasthan Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 3.76% with 652.61 thousand hectares as against 628.94 thousand hectares on the same day last year. In its monthly supply-demand report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year. Hot and dry weather conditions in key growing areas in the United States have threatened the condition of the natural fiber crop and raised supply concerns. The USDA's lower global output estimates also reflected a reduction of about 100,000 bales "as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects there." However, the agency said it expects the lower U.S. production projections to result in a 2 million bale reduction in exports compared with July, and a 200,000 bale dip in mill use. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. Whereas in Maharashtra and Telangana excess rainfall in July, over the major cotton-growing districts has affected the crop. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -730 Rupees to end at 45440 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.27% to settled at 702 while prices down -370 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37870 and below same could see a test of 37720 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 38230, a move above could see prices testing 38440.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 37720-38440.
* Cotton dropped as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 6.54% to 124.55 lakh hectares in 2022
* However, crops in India, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in     major growing regions.
*  USDA cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million     bales for the 2022-23 crop year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -730 Rupees to end at 45440 Rupees.

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