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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 60288 on rising US rates and the currency, as some investors wagered that the Federal Reserve's rate rise halt will take longer than originally anticipated. Markets readjusting their expectations of the Fed's rate-hike course caused the slump. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated that the US central bank should keep raising interest rates because recent statistics revealed that inflation remained persistent. The eurozone's inflation fell last month, but underlying readings remained stubbornly high, with Britain's inflation being the highest in Western Europe, fueling fears of rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. A flood of Fed speakers are scheduled to talk this week, ahead of a blackout period that begins on the weekend before the central bank's May meeting. Physical gold purchase became unappealing across major Asian centres as prices rose, depressing enthusiasm ahead of a significant gold-buying holiday in India. In top buyer China, bullion changed hands at $1-$5 premiums to spot prices, down from $26-$40 premiums last month. In India, traders offered discounts of up to $22 per ounce off official domestic pricing, compared to $32 last week. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.8% to settle at 16854 while prices are down -200 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59791 and below same could see a test of 59294 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60647, a move above could see prices testing 61006.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59294-61006.
* Gold prices slid on higher U.S. yields and the dollar
* The correction was due to the markets readjusting their expectations of the Fed's rate-hike path.
* Fed’s Bullard told that the U.S. central bank should continue raising rates as recent data showed inflation remains persistent.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 75472 as worldwide demand for silver increased by 18% last year to a record high of 1.24 billion ounces, generating a massive supply gap and anticipating more shortages in the coming years. According to the institute's latest World Silver Survey, the silver market was undersupplied by 237.7 million ounces in 2022, which it described as "possibly the most significant deficit on record." It said that the undersupply in 2022, along with a 51.1 million ounce shortage in 2021, had wiped out cumulative surpluses from the preceding decade, and forecast another 142.1 million ounce shortfall this year. According to the institute, demand for silver has reached new highs from all main consumers, including jewellers, industry, and buyers of silver bars and coins. India also imported a large amount of silver last year, however demand is expected to fall slightly in 2023. According to St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, the US central bank should keep raising interest rates in light of recent data showing that inflation is persistent, while the wider economy looks to be ready to expand, albeit slowly. Bullard remarked in response to assertions that the United States is on the cusp of a financial crisis, a recession, or both in the near future. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.76% to settle at 11689 while prices are up 223 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74360 and below same could see a test of 73247 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 76131, a move above could see prices testing 76789.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 73247-76789.
* Silver rose as demand outstrips supply in record year
* Global demand for silver rose by 18% last year to a record high of 1.24 billion ounces, creating a huge supply deficit
* The silver market was undersupplied by 237.7 million ounces in 2022

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.85% at 6566 as possible interest rate rises in the United States, which might impede growth and reduce oil demand, overshadowed positive Chinese economic data and dropping US stockpiles. The Federal Reserve of the United States is expected to raise interest rates again, according to Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, as the central bank battles inflation. Meanwhile, oil stockpiles in the United States declined by around 2.68 million barrels last week, according to market participants using American Petroleum Institute data. Despite Moscow's commitment to limit output, oil loadings from Russia's western ports will exceed 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, the highest since 2019. Russian oil exports and transit from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiisk will exceed 10 million tonnes in April, up from 9.7 million tonnes in March. Asian refiners continued to buy Russian crude in April, putting more pressure on oil benchmarks. So far in April, India and China have purchased the vast bulk of Russian oil at rates higher than the Western price ceiling of $60 per barrel. According to the Energy Information Administration, oil output from the main shale-producing regions in the United States is expected to reach a record high in May. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.36% to settle at 3833 while prices are down -124 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6470 and below same could see a test of 6373 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6667, a move above could see prices testing 6767.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6373-6767.
* Crude oil dropped as potential U.S. interest rate hikes that could slow growth
* Oil exports from Russia's western ports hit 4-yr high in April
* U.S. crude stocks, fell by about 2.68 million barrels last week – API

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.13% at 184.9 after projections confirmed that the weather will be generally warm and heating demand will be low for the next two weeks. Despite a drop in preliminary daily output, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained on track to set a new high for the second month in a row in April, after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas returned to service after an eight-month outage in February. According to Refinitiv, average petrol output in the lower 48 states has risen to 100.2 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.7 bcfd in March. On a daily basis, however, output was on course to fall approximately 1.5 billion cubic feet per day over the last several days to a preliminary two-week low of 99.3 billion cubic feet per day on Wednesday, owing primarily to reductions in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. With the weather turning seasonally warmer, Refinitiv forecasts that US gas consumption, including exports, would fall from 95.9 billion cubic feet per day this week to 95.5 billion cubic feet next week owing to a drop in gas flows to LNG facilities. The mostly warm weather in 2022-2023 allowed utilities to keep more gas in storage than normal. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.21% to settle at 26952 while prices are down -10 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 176.5 and below same could see a test of 168.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 194.8, a move above could see prices testing 204.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 168.1-204.7.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for mild weather
* However, price decline came despite a drop in preliminary daily output
* Natural gas inventories have risen, and the EIA projects them to remain above average through the summer.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 778.8 as the dollar recovered from its recent lows as investors balanced concerns about near-term demand with indications of constrained supply. The stability of US banks gave the Federal Reserve more discretion to raise rates further and kill demand, while lower-than-expected industrial production in China raised concerns about the world's top copper consumer's economic recovery. Nonetheless, the London Metal Exchange reported that inventories declined to 56,000 tonnes, the lowest level since 2005. Furthermore, Chile's state-owned Codelco reported that output in 2023 is expected to fall by much to 7%, following a 10.6% drop in 2022. Trafigura forecasted record copper prices this year due to depleting supplies worldwide, while Goldman Sachs predicted a global deficit of visible copper inventories by September. Antofagasta, a Chilean miner, reported its copper output declined in the March quarter compared to the previous three months owing to lower water availability and poorer ore grades. The London-listed company said it produced 145,900 tonnes of copper in the first quarter, a 25.4% decrease from the fourth quarter of last year, due to poorer grades at its Centinela mine and water shortages in drought-stricken Chile. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.5% to settle at 2497 while prices are down -2.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 773.6 and below same could see a test of 768.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 782.3, a move above could see prices testing 785.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 768.2-785.6.
* Copper fell as dollar rebounded and investors weighed near-term demand concerns
* The stability of US banks added leeway for the Federal Reserve to hike rates further and destroy demand
* Data from the London Metal Exchange showed inventories fell to 56,000 tonnes, the smallest amount since 2005.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.94% at 248.3 as investors became wary of more interest rate hikes, putting pressure on growth-related assets and strengthening the currency. Investors are concerned on what the Federal Reserve of the United States could do to control inflation, which remains stubbornly high. Inflationary pressures remain high in the United Kingdom and the European Union, according to data, but Japanese manufacturers remain gloomy about global demand. JPMorgan upped its GDP growth projection for China this year. It now forecasts that China's GDP would increase 6.4% in 2023, up from 6% before. China's GDP in the first quarter was 28.5 trillion yuan, representing a 4.5% year-on-year rise at constant prices and a 2.2% quarter-on-quarter gain. In March, the added value of industrial firms larger than a certain size climbed by 3.9% year on year and 0.12% month on month. In the first quarter of 2023, the added value of industrial firms larger than a certain size climbed by 3% year on year. Today, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) performed a 7-day reverse repurchase operation worth 32 billion yuan, with a winning bid rate of 2.00%. Today, 7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases expired, resulting in a net injection of 25 billion yuan. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.69% to settle at 2645 while prices are down -4.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 245.5 and below same could see a test of 242.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 253, a move above could see prices testing 257.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 242.6-257.6.
* Zinc falls as markets fret over interest rates
* Investors focused on what the U.S. Federal Reserve might do to tame inflation, which remains stubbonly high.
* JPMorgan raised its forecast for China's GDP growth this year to grow by 6.4%


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 214.4 whether Yunnan smelters would reduce output or resume operations in the future. traders assessed the likelihood of more interest rate rises by the United States Federal Reserve. Fed members made hawkish comments, stating that rate rises should continue and that high rates should be sustained for an extended period of time. According to St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, the Fed should keep raising rates since recent statistics revealed that inflation remained persistent while the larger economy appeared ready to continue rising, although slowly. Fu Linghui, National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson, stated at a press conference that, given the relatively low base caused by the pandemic in the second quarter of last year, China's GDP growth rate in the second quarter of this year could be significantly faster than that in the first quarter. However, China's GDP growth rate will slow in the third and fourth quarters compared to the second quarter. As the Fed's rate rise appears to be coming to an end, market attention has switched to market fundamentals. The domestic aluminium supply is gradually increasing. There have been reports of power restrictions on Yunnan smelters. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.42% to settle at 2227 while prices are up 0.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 212.6 and below same could see a test of 210.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 215.5, a move above could see prices testing 216.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 210.7-216.5.
* Aluminum settled flat whether Yunnan smelters would reduce or resume output.
* China's GDP to slow down in H2 2023
* Markets are pricing an 86% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at its meeting in May.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.91% at 970.2 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 0.9 Rupees to end at 1170.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -19.37% to settle at 408 while prices are down -8.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 966.9 and below same could see a test of 963.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 975.4, a move above could see prices testing 980.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 963.7-980.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 0.9 Rupees to end at 1170.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.12% at 6700 on muted demand against the adequate supplies in the local market. Millers are stockists are in wait and watch mood in wake of rising arrivals at major trading centers. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6820.9 Rupees gained 50.35 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.48% to settle at 14760 while prices are down -76 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6628 and below same could see a test of 6556 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6794, a move above could see prices testing 6888.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6556-6888.
* Turmeric remain under pressure on muted demand against the adequate supplies.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6820.9 Rupees gained 50.35 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 40500 on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 320.1 Rupees to end at 40511.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.34% to settle at 8193 while prices are up 120 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 40030 and below same could see a test of 39565 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 40800, a move above could see prices testing 41105.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 39565-41105.
* Jeera prices gained on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 320.1 Rupees to end at 40511.25 Rupees per 100 kg.