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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.9% at 51238 as Fed Chair Powell emphasized the central bank’s priority to bring inflation down by destroying demand in the US economy during his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The U.S. economy will need tight monetary policy "for some time" before inflation is under control, a fact that means slower growth, a weaker job market and "some pain" for households and businesses, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks warning there is no quick cure for fast rising prices. "Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. Gold premiums in top consumer China jumped to their highest since last October as a fall in global prices encouraged purchases, while demand cooled in India as buyers waited for a bigger price drop. Premiums of $8-$16 an ounce were charged in China, over the international benchmark, versus $5-$8 last week. In India, dealers were offering a discount of up to $7 an ounce on official domestic prices, inclusive of the 15% import and 3% sales levies, and up from the last week's discount of $4. In Singapore, premiums of $1.50-$2.30 were charged, unchanged from the last two weeks. In Japan the metal was sold between a discount of $0.50 to a $0.50 premium. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.9% to settled at 13414 while prices down -464 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51011 and below same could see a test of 50783 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51576, a move above could see prices testing 51913.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50783-51913.
* Gold dropped as Fed Chair Powell emphasized the central bank’s priority to bring inflation down by destroying demand in the US economy
* Fed's Powell: 'Pain' of tight policy, slow growth needed 'for some time' to beat inflation
* Fed's Bullard: Inflation will remain high for a longer period of time.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.1% at 54780 dragged down by rising interest rates worldwide and weakening demand. Progress toward green technologies, such as solar panel production suffered a setback as China and India take advantage of affordable oil and gas from Russia while Europe is returning to coal as an energy alternative. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth but failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain, Fed Chair Powell said during his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Fed Chair also said that another unusually large increase could be appropriate at next meeting, but the decision for September will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook. He also added that at some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases. Personal spending in the US edged up a meagre 0.1% month-over-month in July of 2022, after jumping 1% in June, and below forecasts of 0.4%. It is the weakest performance so far this year, as consumption increased for services, namely housing and international travel but declined for goods, namely gasoline and other energy goods. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 58.2 in August of 2022 from a preliminary of 55.1. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.91% to settled at 10770 while prices down -609 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 54329 and below same could see a test of 53877 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55549, a move above could see prices testing 56317.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 53877-56317.
* Silver dropped dragged down by rising interest rates worldwide and weakening demand.
* Fed to continue to tighten to bring inflation down
* The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 58.2 in August of 2022 from a preliminary of 55.1.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 7414 as talk of a hefty European Central Bank rate hike stoked demand worries. Norway's biggest lender, DNB, said demand concerns look to have been overstated despite a weakening economic outlook. U.S. crude stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell last week to the lowest since January 1985, Energy Information Administration data showed. U.S. crude exports jumped by a record 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) last week to an all-time high of 5.0 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. In the US, official data showed a continued decline in crude inventories and record exports for crude and refined products last week. On the supply front, Saudi Arabia warned that OPEC+ could cut production to stabilize volatile markets, and some OPEC sources told Reuters that such a move may not be imminent and would coincide with the return of Iranian oil to the global market. Swiss UBS strategists predict that oil will rebound to $125 in the coming months as fundamentals point to higher prices, spare capacity is ebbing and inventories are at multi-year lows. UBS responded to Saudi comments to the effect that OPEC+ could cut production at any time, citing a “disconnect” between fundamentals and oil futures prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.02% to settled at 3969 while prices down -56 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7299 and below same could see a test of 7185 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7523, a move above could see prices testing 7633.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7185-7633.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        * Crude oil fell as talk of a hefty ECB rate hike stoked demand worries.
* US SPR crude stocks fall to lowest since Jan 1985 – EIA
* U.S. crude exports hit record high last week – EIA


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 744.4 on higher European prices as concerns persisted around supply. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an injection of 60 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 19, mostly in line with expectations. The Freeport outage was, meanwhile, also seen limiting potential U.S. supply to Europe heading into winter. The region was also gearing for a scheduled outage on the Nord Stream pipeline that could hit supplies of Russian supply. A series of heatwaves this summer across the United States has sent demand from gas-fired power plants to all-time highs as electricity generators boost production to meet the need for additional cooling. On top of that, expectations of increased demand for US LNG exports amid growing concerns of European shortages added to the bullish tone. Russia's Gazprom said it would halt flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe for three days of maintenance at the end of August, putting pressure on the region as it seeks to refuel ahead of winter to avoid a natural gas shortage. Meanwhile, Freeport LNG announced that it would delay the restart of its Quintana export plant to November, backtracking previous statements of an October restart and limiting further upside momentum. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.25% to settled at 5877 while prices up 1.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 730.9 and below same could see a test of 717.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 763.5, a move above could see prices testing 782.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 717.5-782.7.
* Natural gas rose on higher European prices as concerns persisted around supply.
* EIA reported an injection of 60 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 19
* The Freeport outage was, meanwhile, also seen limiting potential U.S. supply to Europe heading into winter.




Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 677.4 dropped after Fed Chairman Powell reassured markets that the Fed will keep interest rates at a restrictive territory until inflation is brought down to the 2% level. However downside seen limited amid hopes grew that fresh stimulus measures in top metals consumer China would boost demand, while better-than-expected economic data from the United States and Europe also supported the market. China will add 19 new policies on top of the existing steps unveiled in May, including raising the quota on policy financing tools by 300 billion yuan ($43.69 billion), to support its COVID-hit economy. The U.S. economy contracted at a more moderate pace than initially thought in the second quarter as consumer spending blunted some of the drag from a sharp slowdown in inventory accumulation, dispelling fears that a recession was underway. The German economy grew in the second quarter, propped up by household and government spending and beating analyst expectations that saw it on the edge of a downturn, data showed. Peru, the world's No. 2 copper producer, expects the price of the metal to fall to $3.40 per pound in 2023 from an average of $3.90 this year, according to forecasts from the economy ministry. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 11.8 % from last Friday, the exchange said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.57% to settled at 5073 while prices down -1.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 674.1 and below same could see a test of 670.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 683.5, a move above could see prices testing 689.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 670.6-689.4.
* Copper dropped after Fed Chairman Powell reassured markets that the Fed will keep interest rates at a restrictive territory
* Better-than-expected economic data from the United States and Europe also supported the market.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 11.8 % from last Friday, the exchange said



Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 318.8 amid lingering supply concerns due to production disruptions in Europe and China. Smelters in Europe have been curbing production as high energy prices exuberated by the war in Ukraine are making it unprofitable. Dutch Nyrstar, one of Europe's largest smelters announced it would halt production from September 1st amid skyrocketing power prices. Glencore, a giant in the commodities and mining scenes, has recently warned of the continuing margin squeeze on its European smelters. In China, power controls amid its worst heatwave in 60 years have also sparked concerns over metal supply. The global zinc market saw a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June from a revised deficit of 1,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in May. During the first six months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 27,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 4,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. China imported 2,000 mt of refined zinc in July, down 17.09% on the month and 96.23% on the year, according to the General Administration of Customs. The imports totalled 51,000 mt in the first seven months of 2022, down 83.11% YoY. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.17% to settled at 1562 while prices up 0.6 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 317 and below same could see a test of 315 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 321.9, a move above could see prices testing 324.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 315-324.8.
* Zinc rose amid lingering supply concerns due to production disruptions in Europe and China.
* The global zinc market saw a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June from a revised deficit of 1,900 tonnes a month earlier
* Zinc ingot social inventory stood at 125,400 mt as of Friday August 26, down 600 mt from Monday and extending the low.




Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.2% at 215.4 due to severe power shortages, the 1.07 million mt of installed aluminium capacity in Sichuan is expected to be shut down completely. In addition, aluminium smelters in Chongqing and Henan have also reduced production. Overseas aluminium smelters also lowered their output due to the intensified energy crisis in Europe. China's energy shortage could lead to higher demand aluminium as the power constraints highlighted the need for increasing grid investments. Demand growth for aluminium, in which supply is already tight due to energy shortages in Europe, is seen growing 3.1% in 2022, an upgrade from a previous forecast of 2.6%, and 2023 growth could reach 4%. China’s primary aluminum production rose 5.6% to a record monthly high of 3.43 million tonnes in July from a year earlier. Aluminium ingot social inventory stood at 679,000 mt as of Thursday August 25, down 1,000 mt from a week ago and 75,000 mt from the same period last year. The inventory added 9,000 mt compared with the end of July. The inventory was basically flat on a week-on-week basis. In detail, the inventory in Foshan and Hainan dropped 6,000 mt with the engagement of some arbitragers in light of wide spread between premiums/discounts in Wuxi and south China that reached 200 yuan/mt. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.11% to settled at 3818 while prices up 2.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 212.8 and below same could see a test of 210.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.6, a move above could see prices testing 219.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 210.2-219.8.
* Aluminum gains due to severe power shortages, the 1.07 million mt of installed aluminium capacity in Sichuan is expected to be shut down completely
* China's energy shortage could lead to higher demand aluminium as the power constraints highlighted the need for increasing grid investments.
* Overseas aluminium smelters also lowered their output due to the intensified energy crisis in Europe.



Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 969.8 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 169.93 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decline of over 33%.In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1114 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.12% to settled at 1619 while prices down -1.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 965.2 and below same could see a test of 960.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 976, a move above could see prices testing 982.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 960.7-982.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1114 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021.
* In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.



Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 7248 amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-June 2022 has rose by 23.44 percent at 49,435.38 tonnes as compared to 40,049.06 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206.00 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,138.35 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,576.68 tonnes in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.23%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7467.2 Rupees dropped -8.95 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.71% to settled at 13640 while prices up 18 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7204 and below same could see a test of 7160 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7280, a move above could see prices testing 7312.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7160-7312.
* Turmeric prices seen supported amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7467.2 Rupees dropped -8.95 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 25475 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 42.98 percent at 47,190.98 tonnes as compared to 82,762.08 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 44.94%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. In the month of May 2022 around 14,894.62 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 20,693.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a decrease of 28.03%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 12.55 Rupees to end at 24990.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.25% to settled at 7299 while prices up 25 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25365 and below same could see a test of 25250 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25580, a move above could see prices testing 25680.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 25250-25680.
* Jeera prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 12.55 Rupees to end at 24990.8 Rupees per 100 kg.



Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.29% at 39350 tracking gains in ICE cotton prices as adverse weather in some growing regions stoked production concerns. India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 6.54% to 124.55 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 116.91 lakh hectares in 2021. In Gujarat Cotton sowing grows by nearly 13% with 2,538,383.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,250,743.00 hectares. In Rajasthan Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 3.76% with 652.61 thousand hectares as against 628.94 thousand hectares on the same day last year. In its monthly supply-demand report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year. Hot and dry weather conditions in key growing areas in the United States have threatened the condition of the natural fiber crop and raised supply concerns. The USDA's lower global output estimates also reflected a reduction of about 100,000 bales "as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects there." However, the agency said it expects the lower U.S. production projections to result in a 2 million bale reduction in exports compared with July, and a 200,000 bale dip in mill use. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. Whereas in Maharashtra and Telangana excess rainfall in July, over the major cotton-growing districts has affected the crop. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -170 Rupees to end at 46930 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.92% to settled at 687 while prices up 500 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 38800 and below same could see a test of 38250 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 39660, a move above could see prices testing 39970.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 38250-39970.
* Cotton rose tracking gains in ICE cotton prices as adverse weather in some growing regions stoked production concerns.
* Cotton crops in India, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
 * USDA cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -170 Rupees to end at 46930 Rupees.

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