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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 60892 as the dollar traded higher, as investors assessed inflation data from the U.S. and China. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits jumped last week to the highest level since late 2021, suggesting that higher interest rates were starting to weigh on the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 for the week ended May 6, the highest reading since October 2021, the Labor Department said. Claims, which remain below the 270,000-300,000 level that economists said would signal a deterioration in the labor market, are expected to rise considerably in the second half of the year as the cumulative and lagged effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases broaden out in the economy. Investment demand in the gold market continued to improve in April; however, the sector still has a hill to climb to undo the significant selling pressure seen last year and in the early months of 2023, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council. The WGC said that global gold-backed exchange-traded products saw inflows of 15 tonnes in April, valued at $824 million. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.3% to settle at 13697 while prices are down -378 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 60639 and below same could see a test of 60387 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61329, a move above could see prices testing 61767.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 60387-61767.
* Gold eased as investors assessed inflation data from the U.S. and China.
*  The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits jumped last week to the highest level since late 2021.
* Gold ETF investment demand improved in April, but the market remains negative year-to-date


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -3.76% at 73808 as concerns of lower industrial demand outweighed the Fed’s dovish outlook. Indices tracking the performance of solar panel companies sank to seven-month lows amid a batch of weak corporate earnings, limiting demand for the technology’s key input metal. Still, dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook pressured the dollar and supported bullion prices. Consumer inflation was lower than expected in April amid a considerable deceleration for the core services subsector, strengthening bets that the US central bank will pause its tightening cycle in its next meeting. Data showed U.S. consumer inflation fell below 5 percent for the first time in two years. So-called core inflation also eased, giving the Federal Reserve room to pause interest-rate increases soon. Elsewhere, a measure of China's consumer price inflation reached its lowest level in more than two years in April and factory gate deflation deepened, raising fresh worries about weak demand in the country. Data showed China's consumer price inflation rose an annual 0.1 percent in April, marking the lowest rate since February 2021. Producer prices declined 3.6 percent from a year earlier, marking the fastest rate since May 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -14.63% to settle at 15847 while prices are down -2880 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 72806 and below same could see a test of 71803 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75716, a move above could see prices testing 77623.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 71803-77623.
* Silver fell as concerns of lower industrial demand outweighed the Fed’s dovish outlook.
* The performance of solar panel companies sank, limiting demand for the technology’s key input metal.
* Data showed U.S. consumer inflation fell below 5 percent for the first time in two years.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.48% at 5843 amid persistent demand concerns and as EIA data showed an unexpected increase in US inventories. Crude oil stocks rose by nearly 3 million tonnes on the week ending May 5th, according to data from the EIA, defying expectations of a 900 thousand barrel decline and consistent with a previous report from the API. Elsewhere, trade data from China showed that crude oil imports fell 16% annually to 10.6 million barrels per day in April, adding to fears of an economic slowdown in Asia’s largest economy. OPEC further raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023 following the relaxation of the country's COVID-19 curbs, although it left the global total steady citing potential downside risks for growth in other regions. World oil demand in 2023 will rise by 2.33 mbpd, or 2.3%, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report. This was virtually unchanged from 2.32 million bpd forecast last month. U.S. crude production will rise in 2023 along with demand, the U.S. EIA said in its STEO. The EIA projected that crude production will rise 640,000 bpd to 12.53 million bpd in 2023 and 160,000 bpd to 12.69 million bpd in 2024. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 19.62% to settle at 16829 while prices are down -88 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5764 and below same could see a test of 5686 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5981, a move above could see prices testing 6120.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5686-6120.
* Crude oil fell amid persistent demand concerns, unexpected increase in inventories
* Crude oil stocks rose by nearly 3 million tonnes on the week ending May 5th, according to data from the EIA.
* Data from China showed that crude oil imports fell 16% annually to 10.6 million barrels per day in April


Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 179.6 on a decline in output over the past few days and forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. US utilities added 78 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended May 5, 2023, more than market expectations of a 74 bcf increase. That compared with an increase of 76 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 87 bcf as cold weather kept heating demand for the fuel high. U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023, while demand will fall, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 101.09 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.24 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.13 bcfd in 2022. The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 87.54 bcfd in 2023 and 86.05 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.53 bcfd in 2022. It would also be the first time that demand declines for two years in a row since 2006. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.67% to settle at 40799 while prices are down -1.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 177.1 and below same could see a test of 174.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 184, a move above could see prices testing 188.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 174.6-188.4.
* Natural gas edged up on a decline in output over the past few days
* U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023
* EIA projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 87.54 bcfd in 2023 and 86.05 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.53 bcfd in 2022.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -2.07% at 729.2 after data showed that the consumer price index in China rose 0.1% year-on-year in April, the slowest pace since early 2021. China's producer prices plunged 3.6% yoy in April 2023, faster than a 2.5% drop in March and worse than market forecasts of a 3.2% fall. It was the seventh straight month of producer deflation and the steepest fall since May 2020 amid moderating commodity prices. The data suggested that more fiscal and monetary stimulus may be needed to boost the country’s economic recovery. Disappointing trade data released earlier in the week weighed on the currency as well, with China’s imports contracting sharply in April amid softer domestic demand, while exports grew at a slower pace due to easing global growth. Moreover, official and private surveys showed that Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April. Economic data continually suggests that the reopening of the Chinese economy has not lived up to expectations of a sharper recovery, underscored by April PMI figures unexpectedly contracting. Consequently, low industrial demand drove the world’s second-largest economy to import 407,294 tonnes of copper during the period, a 12.5% reduction compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 13.63% to settle at 5518 while prices are down -15.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 722.6 and below same could see a test of 716 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 740.7, a move above could see prices testing 752.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 716-752.2.
* Copper dropped inflation in China rose the slowest pace since early 2021
* China’s imports contracting sharply in April amid softer domestic demand, while exports grew at a slower pace.
* Chile said this year's output is estimated to sink as much as 7% after the 10.6% decline in 2022.


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.16% at 230.6 after inflation data from the top consumer China added to concerns over the strength of the country's economic recovery. China's consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in more than two years in April, data showed. Producer deflation deepened last month, which taken together with the CPI data, highlights the broader economy's struggles to rev-up after the lifting of COVID curbs in December. Global refined zinc market is likely be in a deficit in 2023, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said. Global demand for refined zinc metal will exceed supply in 2023 with the extent of the deficit currently forecast at a modest 45,000 tonnes, the ILZSG said. Data from China, the largest consumer of zinc, showed imports of the metal unexpectedly dropped in April, indicating that demand in the world's second-largest economy remains subdued. Meanwhile, the output rose by 8.97% year-on-year to reach 540,000 mt in April. Domestic refined zinc output in May will grow by 19,800 mt to 559,800 mt, representing an 8.65% year-on-year increase, following the completion of routine maintenance and the easing of power supply in Yunnan. S&P Global has projected that global refined zinc consumption will only grow by 1.3% in 2023. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.35% to settle at 3743 while prices are down -5.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 228.6 and below same could see a test of 226.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 234.3, a move above could see prices testing 238.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 226.6-238.
* Zinc dropped after China’s inflation data added to concerns over the recovery.
* China's consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in more than two years in April, data showed.
* S&P Global has projected that global refined zinc consumption will only grow by 1.3% in 2023


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 205.95 as the supply of aluminum in China has been increasing while the costs of production have been falling, which is putting downward pressure on aluminum prices. China's aluminum output increased 1.5% year-on-year to 3.35 million mt in April as aluminum enterprises in Guangxi and Guizhou continued to resume production. From January to April, output was up 3.9% year-on-year to 13.27 million mt. Additionally, there has been an increase in aluminum smelter output and operating rates, which is expected to lead to even more aluminum production in the coming months. Despite this increase in production, there is still relatively low inventory of aluminum, which may help prevent prices from falling too much in the short-term. However, as production capacity continues to increase it is likely that there will be an excess supply of aluminum later in the year, which could cause prices to fall. China's annual inflation rate fell to 0.1% in April 2022 from 0.7% in the previous month, missing market estimates of 0.4%. This was the lowest print since February 2021 amid an uneven economic recovery after the removal of a zero-COVID policy, with prices of both food and non-food easing further. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.33% to settle at 3293 while prices are down -1.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204.9 and below same could see a test of 203.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.7, a move above could see prices testing 209.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.9-209.5.
* Aluminum fell as the supply of aluminum in China has been increasing.
* China's aluminum output increased 1.5% year-on-year to 3.35 million mt in April
* Aluminum enterprises in Guangxi and Guizhou continued to resume production


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 955.8 as a result of better sowing conditions in UP and Bihar. The recent period of rain in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has been beneficial to planting efforts. The forecast of above-average rainfall in May would be beneficial to Mentha seeding efforts. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes as compared to 2,493.53 tonnes exported during Apr-Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 233.21 tonnes in January 2023 showing a drop of 9.62%. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 1152.7 Rupees to end at 1121.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.11% to settle at 626 while prices are down -3.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 953.5 and below same could see a test of 951.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 959.8, a move above could see prices testing 963.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 951.1-963.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1152.7 Rupees to end at 1121.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices settled down as a result of better sowing conditions in UP and Bihar.
* The forecast of above-average rainfall in May would be beneficial to Mentha seeding efforts.
* Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on prices.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.62% at 7570 on profit booking after prices rose as there were report of some fall in crop yields in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra due to rain in the last week. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2023, rose by 10.42 percent at 151,298.89 tonnes as compared to 137,017.23 tonnes exported during Apr- Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,484.25 tonnes in January 2023 showing a rise of 18.60%. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,358.22 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 42.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7170.1 Rupees dropped -21.9 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.42% to settle at 14345 while prices are down -204 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7466 and below same could see a test of 7360 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7754, a move above could see prices testing 7936.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7360-7936.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after rose on report of fall in yields
* Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7170.1 Rupees dropped -21.9 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.63% at 48165 on profit booking after prices rose due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -99.15 Rupees to end at 48244.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.07% to settle at 9222 while prices are down -305 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 47570 and below same could see a test of 46980 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48710, a move above could see prices testing 49260.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 46980-49260.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after rose due to good export demand.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -99.15 Rupees to end at 48244.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

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