Mentha oil trading range for the day is 950.1-969.5 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 44900 as U.S. Treasury yields backed off recent highs, countering pressure from a resilient dollar, as investors awaited further policy cues from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week. Also aiding gold's rise was the signing of a long-awaited $1.9 trillion U.S. relief bill into law, which spurred some fears over inflation, since bullion is considered a hedge against rising prices. Investors now await a two-day Fed meeting that starts on Tuesday, with the focus on a recent spike in bond yields, fears about rising inflation and the economic outlook. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan also have meetings on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Poland's central bank wants to buy at least 100 tonnes of gold – worth some $5.5 billion at current prices – over the coming years, as it continues to expand its bullion reserves, governor Adam Glapinski said in an interview published. "At the moment, we have 229 tonnes of gold, of which more or less half was bought during my term in office," Glapinski told conservative magazine Sieci. U.S. producer prices increased strongly in February, leading to the largest annual gain in nearly 2-1/2 years, but considerable slack in the labor market could make it harder for businesses to pass on the higher costs to consumers. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.29% to settled at 9625 while prices up 150 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44737 and below same could see a test of 44575 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45054, a move above could see prices testing 45209.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 44575-45209.
* Gold prices ticked up as U.S. Treasury yields backed off recent highs, countering pressure from a resilient dollar
* U.S. producer prices increased strongly in February, leading to the largest annual gain in nearly 2-1/2 years.
* Investors awaited further policy cues from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 1.23% at 67669 as U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly after the release of mixed Chinese data and ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting. Official data showed that industrial production in China jumped 35.1 percent year-on-year in the period including January and February - beating forecasts for an increase of 30 percent. Retail sales spiked an annual 33.8 percent to exceed expectations while weaker-than-expected investment growth and rise in unemployment disappointed markets. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week that U.S. inflation risks remain subdued despite the Biden administration stimulus. Traders also keep an eye on U.S. reports on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and regional manufacturing activity this week for clues on the economic outlook. The Bank of England rate decision is due on Thursday and no change in policy is expected. The Bank of Japan monetary policy decision is slated for Friday, with economists expecting a review of the central bank's monetary policy strategy. U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early March to its strongest in a year as COVID-19 cases declined and the pace of vaccinations accelerated, a survey showed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.92% to settled at 11824 while prices up 825 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67060 and below same could see a test of 66450 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68070, a move above could see prices testing 68470.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66450-68470.
* Silver prices inched higher as U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly after the release of mixed Chinese data and ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting.
* Official data showed that industrial production in China jumped 35.1 percent year-on-year in the period including January and February
* Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week that U.S. inflation risks remain subdued despite the Biden administration stimulus.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.08% at 4745 amid a stronger dollar and concerns over runaway inflation and oversupply. U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.15 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 290,000 bpd. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has cut the supply of April-loading crude to at least four north Asian buyers by up to 15%, while meeting the normal monthly requirements of Indian refiners, refinery sources told. Saudi Arabia's reduction in supplies come as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, decided earlier this month to extend most of its supply cuts into April. U.S. energy firms cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the first time since November even as crude prices soared to their highest since 2018. The U.S. oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 402 in the week to March 12, according to data from energy services firm Baker Hughes Co. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.93% to settled at 3735 while prices down -52 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4662 and below same could see a test of 4578 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4828, a move above could see prices testing 4910.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4578-4910.
* Crude oil prices dropped amid a stronger dollar and concerns over runaway inflation and oversupply.
* U.S. crude output to decline less than previously forecast in 2021 – EIA
* China Jan – Feb crude oil output up 0.4% y/y at 32.08 mln tonnes – stats bureau
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.72% at 181.5 on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand through the end of March than previously expected. Forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand in March prompted speculators to cut their net long positions last week on the New York Mercantile (NYMEX) and Intercontinental Exchanges by the most since December to their lowest since January. U.S. natural gas production will edge up in 2021, while demand declines for a second year in a row as economic fallout from coronavirus lockdowns continue to plague the market, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 91.35 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 and 92.83 bcfd in 2022 from 91.34 bcfd in 2020. That compares with an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019. It also projected gas consumption would fall to 82.52 bcfd in 2021 and 81.60 bcfd in 2022 from 83.25 bcfd in 2020. That compares with a record high of 85.15 bcfd in 2019. If the outlook is correct, 2021 would mark the first time consumption falls for two consecutive years since 2006, and 2022 would be the first time it falls for three years since 1983. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 27.39% to settled at 11800 while prices down -9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 178.8 and below same could see a test of 176.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 186.5, a move above could see prices testing 191.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 176.1-191.5.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand through the end of March than previously expected.
* Forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand in March prompted speculators to cut their net long positions last week
* U.S. natural gas production will edge up in 2021, while demand declines for a second year in a row
Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.13% at 678.65 prices traded in range as top metals consumer China released upbeat economic activity data and as concerns over global supply resurfaced. China's industrial output grew 35.1% in January-February from a year ago, faster than the 7.3% gain in December, official data showed, adding further momentum to a recovery that is set to underpin solid economic growth. China's imports of copper are likely to rebound in March, but the expected increase after a disappointing start to the year may not be quite as bullish as it appears at first glance. A range of factors, including port congestion, issues loading at major producer Chile and an ongoing unofficial boycott of imports from Australia, led to China's imports of both unwrought copper, and ores and concentrates failing to set the heather on fire in the first two months of the year. The first two months of 2021 saw unwrought copper imports of 884,009 tonnes, up 4.65% from the same period in 2020, according to data from China's customs bureau. Since 2020 it hasn't provided separate figures for January and February, possibly to smooth out the volatility around the Lunar New Year holidays. Miners Vale SA , Anglo American PLc and Chile's Codelco expect demand for copper to strengthen in coming years on growing demand for environmentally friendly cars. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.51% to settled at 2827 while prices down -0.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 675.6 and below same could see a test of 672.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 681.4, a move above could see prices testing 684.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 672.5-684.1.
* Copper prices traded in range despite China released upbeat economic activity data and as concerns over global supply resurfaced.
* China industrial output rises 35.1% year-on-year in January-February
* Trafigura sees a significant supply deficit in the copper market and a prolonged high-price cycle.
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.53% at 220.55 as recent environmental protection and limited production in northern China limited the production of some galvanised enterprises. Environmental protection and limited production in the north will be monitored in the short term. New home prices in China rose at a faster pace in February, data showed, as government cooling measures were largely eclipsed by red-hot demand for property in some major cities. Average new home prices in 70 major cities grew 0.4% in February from a month earlier, quickening slightly from a 0.3% gain in January, according to calculations based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. In addition to the rising yield of US bonds and the strong US dollar, the market was worried that with the expansion of vaccination coverage, the pandemic blockade will end, and large-scale fiscal stimulus and depressed consumer demand may lead to rising inflation. Market participants have grown wary in recent weeks that massive fiscal stimulus and pent-up consumer demand could lead to a jump in inflation as expanding vaccination campaigns bring an end to lockdowns. Data showed U.S. producer prices (PPI) had their largest annual gain in nearly 2-1/2 years, though considerable slack in the labor market could make it harder for businesses to pass the higher costs on to consumers. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.99% to settled at 1876 while prices up 5.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 217.3 and below same could see a test of 214 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 222.4, a move above could see prices testing 224.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 214-224.2.
* Zinc prices gained as recent environmental protection and limited production in northern China limited the production of some galvanised enterprises.
* New home prices in China rose at a faster pace in February, data showed
* Data showed U.S. producer prices (PPI) had their largest annual gain in nearly 2-1/2 years
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 1164.7 as China's industrial output grew 35.1% in January-February from a year ago, faster than the 7.3% gain in December, official data showed, adding further momentum to a recovery that is set to underpin solid economic growth. The figure beat a 30.0% on-year surge expected. Retail sales increased 33.8% from a year earlier in the first two months, compared with a rise of 32%, marking a significant jump from 4.6% growth in December and after a 20.5% contraction for January-February of 2020. The overall consumption of refined nickel market was relatively stable, and downstream restocked for rigid demand at low prices. The spot of battery-grade nickel sulphate was still tight, but due to the deep drop of nickel prices, the spot prices of battery-grade nickel sulphate may follow the downward trend recently. It is expected that nickel sulphate will still maintain a high premium to nickel briquettes according to the current performance of end-user consumption. New home prices in China rose at a faster pace in February, data showed, as government cooling measures were largely eclipsed by red-hot demand for property in some major cities. Average new home prices in 70 major cities grew 0.4% in February from a month earlier, quickening slightly from a 0.3% gain in January, according to calculations based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.14% to settled at 2012 while prices up 9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1147.4 and below same could see a test of 1130.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1180.5, a move above could see prices testing 1196.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1130.1-1196.3.
* Nickel prices gained as China's industrial output grew 35.1% in January-February from a year ago, faster than the 7.3% gain in December
* China's new home prices grow more quickly in Feb on resilient demand
* The overall consumption of refined nickel market was relatively stable, and downstream restocked for rigid demand at low prices.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 2.11% at 174.35 driven by concerns restrictions on new capacity in China's Inner Mongolia region would leave the market short of supply. China's aluminium production rose 8.4% in the first two months of 2021 compared with the same period last year, official data showed, as smelters added new capacity and cashed in on soaring prices. Primary aluminium output in China, the world's biggest aluminium producer, was 6.45 million tonnes in January and February combined, the National Bureau of Statistics said. It combined data for the first two months to account for the distortions of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. The data suggests output averaged around 109,300 tonnes per day in January-February, versus around 105,400 tonnes per day in December and beating the previous record of about 106,000 tonnes in November. China added 220,000 tonnes of annual aluminium production capacity in January and February, all of it in the emerging smelting hub of Yunnan province in Southwest China. A strong recovery in China's aluminium demand since the coronavirus-led collapse in early 2020 had already pushed prices way above smelters' break-even levels, giving them an incentive to produce as much metal as possible. China's industrial output grew 35.1% in January-February from a year ago, faster than the 7.3% gain in December, official data showed, adding further momentum to a recovery that is set to underpin solid economic growth. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.52% to settled at 1035 while prices up 3.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 171.6 and below same could see a test of 168.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 176.1, a move above could see prices testing 177.8.
Aluminium
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 168.8-177.8.
* Aluminium prices gained driven by concerns restrictions on new capacity in China's Inner Mongolia region would leave the market short of supply.
* Aluminium output in first two months of 2021 at 6.45 mln T
* Average daily aluminium output reaches highest on record
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 959.2 on short covering amid demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1097.3 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.44% to settled at 43 while prices up 0.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 954.7 and below same could see a test of 950.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 964.4, a move above could see prices testing 969.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 950.1-969.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1097.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on short covering amid demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 2.39% at 5406 tracking rise in overseas prices as In Argentina, the prolonged dry weather condition in the producing regions has prompted the USDA to lower its forecast of 2020/21 Argentine soybean production to 47.5 million metric tons. In USDA’s monthly report, the Department has left U.S. ending stocks unchanged, lowered the crop guess for Argentina, and raised production for Brazil’s crop size. Despite the hike in the world stocks (due to increase in Brazilian soybean output estimate), consistent growth in world soybean usage, are most likely to keep ending 2020/21 supplies at the tightest level in twelve years. Combined with the increase to Brazilian soybean output, the current level of global soybean stocks appears slightly better versus previous estimates. However, as long as the Brazilian soybean shipments remain delayed, markets may continue to factor in the prevailing tight supply conditions. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended March 4 at 563,800 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), in line with trade expectations. Brazilian government supply agency Conab raised its estimate of the country's soybean crop to 135.131 million tonnes, up from its previous estimate of 133.817 million. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5628 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.95% to settled at 147480 while prices up 126 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5321 and below same could see a test of 5236 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5455, a move above could see prices testing 5504.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5236-5504.
* Soyabean gains tracking rise in overseas prices as In Argentina, the prolonged dry weather condition prompted the USDA to lower its forecast of soybean production
* The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended March 4 at 563,800 tonnes
* USDA left U.S. ending stocks unchanged, lowered the crop guess for Argentina, and raised production for Brazil’s crop size.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5628 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.44% at 1293.9 on tightening global vegetable oil supplies and on uncertainty about South American crop weather. Support also seen as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices. Also Soyabean arrivals is decreasing in the mandis. According to USDA, soy production in Argentina may decline by 2.5 million tonnes from January estimate to 4.75 million tonnes, due to no rain in February, excessive rainfall in March. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentina's soybean harvest to 44 million tonnes, from 46 million previously, citing dry conditions. Brazilian government supply agency Conab raised its estimate of the country's soybean crop to 135.131 million tonnes, up from its previous estimate of 133.817 million. U.S. soybean processors recorded their second-largest monthly crush on record in January, the latest in a string of historically active months of soy processing, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 184.654 million bushels of soybeans last month, up from 183.159 million bushels in December and 176.940 million bushels in January 2020. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1296.5 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4% to settled at 56345 while prices up 18.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1282 and below same could see a test of 1270 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1302, a move above could see prices testing 1310.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1270-1310.
* Ref soyoil prices gained on tightening global vegetable oil supplies
* Support also seen as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices.
* NOPA soy crush jumps to 184.654 million bushels, second biggest on record
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1296.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.05% at 1139.8 lifted by a jump in crude and rival edible oils due to tightening global supplies. India's palm oil imports fell 27% in February from a year earlier to their lowest in nine months, a leading trade body said, reflecting a slowdown in domestic demand. India imported 394,495 tonnes of palm oil, down from 540,470 tonnes a year earlier, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said in a statement. Soyoil imports fell to 285,973 tonnes from 322,448 tonnes, the SEA said. Overseas purchases of sunflower oil dropped to 116,110 tonnes from 226,743 tonnes. India buys palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, while other oils, including soyoil and sunflower oil, are sourced from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and Russia. As lower shipments have depleted stocks, India's palm oil imports are expected to rebound in March and April to meet rising demand from hotels and restaurants. Investors are now awaiting cargo surveyors to announce March 1-15 export data but shipments are expected to remain slow amid lower stockpile and output. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 6.6 Rupees to end at 1151.8 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.82% to settled at 4878 while prices up 11.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1130 and below same could see a test of 1120.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1148.1, a move above could see prices testing 1156.4.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1120.2-1156.4.
* Crude palm oil gains lifted by a jump in crude and rival edible oils due to tightening global supplies.
* India's palm oil imports fell 27% in February from a year earlier to their lowest in nine months
* Malaysia's March 1 – 15 palm oil exports fall 4.6 pct – AmSpec Agri
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 6.6 Rupees to end at 1151.8 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 5854 as the crop ready to be harvested has suffered a lot due to the intense sun and heat for the past several days, cloudburst occurred in eastern Rajasthan. In many areas, there has been hailstorm with rain. Support also seen as the moisture content is being said to be high in the new mustard product coming. The government has banned mustard oil blended with other oils from 08-June. Support also seen due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. Despite this, millers and traders are showing activity in purchasing because all the godowns are lying vacant. Government agencies are also watching the market. When there is a good arrival of dry new goods in the coming days, the activity of big companies as well as stockists will increase while heavy regular procurement of oil millers will continue. During the current Rabi season, domestic production of mustard is expected to rise to a new record level of 12-15 lakh tonnes as compared to last year but due to heavy buying by oil mills and stockists, its market price is expected to be much higher than the minimum price. Mustard supply is continuously increasing in the major mandis of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat and Eastern India. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5625.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.52% to settled at 54530 while prices up 44 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5753 and below same could see a test of 5651 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5920, a move above could see prices testing 5985.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5651-5985.
* Mustard seed gained as the crop ready to be harvested has suffered a lot due to the intense sun and heat for the past several days, cloudburst occurred in eastern Rajasthan.
* There will be no significant deposit in the accredited warehouses of NCDEX till March-end.
* The moisture content is being said to be high in the new mustard product coming.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5625.5 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.99% at 8912 due to a lower crop yield and increased demand in the domestic and export market. The domestic and export sales will grow by over 20% over the previous year as spices will be much in demand especially turmeric for its medicinal properties. High export demand for turmeric from China, Gulf countries, Malaysia, Singapore, and other European countries have started coming, which is also supporting the prices. Prices also seen supported amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area in the kharif sowing season 2020 across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long. Poor quality of arrivals is another reason for the drop in demand. Therefore, many traders in Erode started buying turmeric from the markets of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as the prices were low there. Despite 2% freight, they are saving 5% on costs. Apprehensions are there that water logging and higher moisture due to recent rains in October in major Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8123.55 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.14% to settled at 8300 while prices up 342 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8736 and below same could see a test of 8562 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8998, a move above could see prices testing 9086.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8562-9086.
* Turmeric prices gained due to a lower crop yield and increased demand in the domestic and export market.
* The domestic and export sales will grow by over 20% over the previous year as spices will be much in demand especially turmeric for its medicinal properties.
* High export demand for turmeric from China, Gulf countries, Malaysia, Singapore, and other European countries have started coming
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8123.55 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.8% at 14880 as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. However upside seen limited as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14033.35 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.02% to settled at 4677 while prices up 405 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14530 and below same could see a test of 14185 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15090, a move above could see prices testing 15305.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 14185-15305.
* Jeera gained as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature.
* However upside seen limited as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying
* In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14033.35 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 22100 as India’s cotton exports are likely to hit 60 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) for the current season (October2020-September 2021) on cost competitiveness. Trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has noted that so far about 60 per cent or 36 lakh bales has been shipped since the start of the season. This is primarily due to Indian cotton’s price competitiveness in the international market. Indian cotton quoted at around ₹44,000-45,500 per candy (each of 356 kg of processed cotton) during the past couple of months. At this rate, the Indian exporters could offer a 10-per cent discount to the international prices, which hovered at around 85.60 cents per pound. For the cotton crop, CAI has revised its output projections downward to 358.5 lakh bales, lower by about 1.5 lakh bales from previous estimate. Last year, the output was expected at 360 lakh bales. CAI, in its latest crop outlook for March, stated that India’s cotton imports will be around 12 lakh bales for the year, which is lower by about 2 lakh bales from the earlier estimated about 14 lakh bales for the season. The likely drop is attributed to the recent hike in the import duty on long-staple variety of cotton. Last year, India had imported 15.50 lakh bales of the fibre. As per the CAI data, as on February 28, total 7 lakh bales has already arrived at Indian ports. In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 22100 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.77% to settled at 6230 while prices up 80 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21950 and below same could see a test of 21790 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22220, a move above could see prices testing 22330.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21790-22330.
* Cotton prices gained as support seen amid Cotton exports seen hitting 60 lakh bales on competitive rates
* CAI has noted that so far about 60 per cent or 36 lakh bales has been shipped since the start of the season.
* CAI has revised its output projections downward to 358.5 lakh bales, lower by about 1.5 lakh bales from previous estimate.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 22100 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.55% at 5148 as unseasonal rains and hailstorms lashing part of Eastern Madhya Pradesh are affecting the ready-to-harvest crop. Support also seen as support seen after update Chana yield in Rajasthan are lower by 20 -30 % compared to last year and sudden rise in temperature causing early maturity. However upside seen limited as the inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available. There are estimations of yields to surpass their recent five year average because of ample moisture retained after the monsoon season. Government’s planting data says that the planted area for chickpeas in India has increased from 10.731 million hectares at this time last year to a record 11.2 million. The average output for this year is estimated near to 11.74 million MT, up from 11.35 million last year. However downside seen limited due to lower arrivals and steady off take in the Chana processed products. The recent lockdown imposition in Maharashtra has resulted in temporary closure of few mandis, because of which there will be a supply constraint for a while. The Daily All India arrivals are limited these days and at the same time, rising prices is prompting NAFED to without their sale decision. Actual production likely to be much lower than official estimate due to damage to crop due to rising heat. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 5057.5 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.84% to settled at 73770 while prices up 28 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5118 and below same could see a test of 5088 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5188, a move above could see prices testing 5228.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5088-5228.
* Chana gains as unseasonal rains and hailstorms lashing part of Eastern Madhya Pradesh are affecting the ready-to-harvest crop.
* Chana yield in Rajasthan are lower by 20 -30 % compared to last year
* The inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 5057.5 Rupees per 100 kgs.
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