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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 50112 as a potential Russia-U.S. meeting cooled some nerves about an escalation in the Ukraine conflict. Investors piled into the gold and other safe havens amid escalating tensions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The U.S. ramped up warnings of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine, but Russian officials said no invasion was underway or planned. Government forces and Moscow-backed separatists in the conflict in eastern Ukraine accused each other of breaking cease-fire rules. The U.S. said that Russia has increased the number of troops near Ukraine's borders, a claim rejected by Moscow. This followed comments by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that Russia was continuing to send troops to what is now the biggest concentration of forces in Europe since the cold war. Russia expelled deputy U.S. ambassador Bartle Gorman, warning of a U.S. response amid heightened fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Minutes of the latest policy meeting showed while policymakers agreed that it would "soon be appropriate" to raise the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate from its near-zero level, they would re-asses the rate hike timeline at each meeting. The Federal Reserve is now less than four weeks away from its first expected interest rate hike since 2018, and these initial hikes in a cycle have reliably marked the beginnings of significant gold rallies. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.6% to settled at 11148 while prices down -280 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49870 and below same could see a test of 49627 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50315, a move above could see prices testing 50517.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 49627-50517.
Gold retreated as a potential Russia-U.S. meeting cooled some nerves about an escalation in the Ukraine conflict.
Investors piled into the gold and other safe havens amid escalating tensions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The U.S. said that Russia has increased the number of troops near Ukraine's borders, a claim rejected by Moscow.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.06% at 63902 amid easing geopolitical concerns and hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough next week to avert a feared Russian invasion of Ukraine. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said the U.S. central bank will need to move more aggressively to remove accommodation than it did following the Great Recession, while St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard called for interest rate hike by a full percentage point by July. Russia announced a new drawdown of military forces from the Moscow-annexed Crimean peninsula, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution. Separately, the G7 nations are ready for "a serious dialogue" with Russia on the Ukraine crisis, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said today on the eve of crunch talks in Munich with her G7 counterparts. Data released by the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims rose to 248,000 in the week ended February 12th, an increase of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level of 225,000. The Commerce Department also released a report that showed housing starts tumbled by 4.1% an annual rate of 1.638 million in January after inching up by 0.3% to a revised rate of 1.708 million in December. The report said building permits climbed by 0.7% to an annual rate of 1.899 million in January after spiking by 9.8% to a revised rate of 1.885 million in December. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.16% to settled at 6777 while prices up 41 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63428 and below same could see a test of 62954 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64298, a move above could see prices testing 64694.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 62954-64694.
Silver eased amid easing geopolitical concerns and hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough next week to avert a feared Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Fed’s Mester said the U.S. central bank will need to move more aggressively to remove accommodation than it did following the Great Recession
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard called for interest rate hike by a full percentage point by July.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled flat by 0.04% at 6730 amid slightly easing Ukraine tensions and signs of negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear deal. Hopes of fresh supplies flooding the market amid tightening supplies and persistent underperformance in production output from OPEC+. US Shale oil production for March is due to rise by about 109,000bpd from the previous month to 8.707mbpd. OPEC+ will work to integrate Iran into its oil supply-limiting accord should agreement be reached on reviving its nuclear deal with world powers, seeking to avoid market share competition that could hit prices. A successful outcome to the talks could lift U.S. sanctions on Iran's exports, according to the International Energy Agency, potentially bringing 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil back into the market. That could ease tight global supply and take some heat out of a rally that has taken benchmark prices to just a few dollars short of $100 a barrel. Due to the impact of sanctions on its exports, Iran is exempt from the existing deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, to limit oil supply. While that exemption allows Iran to boost output, OPEC+ would eventually seek to bring Iran into the accord. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 20.83% to settled at 6556 while prices up 3 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6580 and below same could see a test of 6430 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6846, a move above could see prices testing 6962.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6430-6962.
Crude oil prices settled flat amid slightly easing Ukraine tensions and signs of negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear deal.
OPEC+ would seek to bring Iran into oil supply deal
Hopes of fresh supplies flooding the market amid tightening supplies and persistent underperformance in production output from OPEC+

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.26% at 337.2 on record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a forecast for much colder weather and higher heating demand in two weeks' time. That price increase came despite a continued slow recovery in U.S. output from cold weather-related reductions earlier in the month and forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. The United States has worked with other nations to ensure gas supplies, mostly LNG, would keep flowing to Europe if Russia cuts off exports there. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 92.9 bcfd so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions earlier in the new year. On a daily basis, however, gas production has gained almost every day since dropping to 86.3 bcfd during winter storm on Feb. 4. Output rose to a recent high of 95.2 bcfd on Feb. 11, the most since Jan. 1. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 121.6 bcfd this week to 123.1 bcfd next week and 128.8 bcfd in two weeks. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -29.23% to settled at 1939 while prices up 4.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 327.6 and below same could see a test of 318.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 346.8, a move above could see prices testing 356.5.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 318.1-356.5.
Natural gas rose on record LNG exports and a forecast for much colder weather and higher heating demand in two weeks' time.
The United States and Europe have said they would sanction Russia if it invaded Ukraine, likely prompting Russia to cut some gas exports to Europe.
Russia provides around 30-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 763.45 as traders weighed geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe against reports of tight inventories and supply issues. Russian backed separatists and government forces accused each other of breaking cease-fire rules, reigniting fears of conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Still, stocks held in LME-approved warehouses declined to 70,125 tonnes, the lowest since November 2005, capping losses. On the supply side, MMG Ltd said production at its Las Bambas copper mine in Peru may stop by February 20th after a local community blocked again a road used by the miner, causing the company to curtail operations. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 27.9 percent from last Friday, the exchange said. On the data front, US initial jobless claims last week rose unexpectedly, but it did not change view of a strong labour market in February. On the fundamentals, copper inventory in China bonded zones added 20,850 mt to 286,100 mt as of Friday on a weekly basis, while inventory across major markets in China added 13,600 mt as well. Nonetheless, the total inventory was still at a low level, and the increment was merely a result of the seasonal factor. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -28.41% to settled at 1983 while prices down -3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 759.9 and below same could see a test of 756.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 768.9, a move above could see prices testing 774.4.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 756.4-774.4.
Copper eased as traders weighed geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe against reports of tight inventories and supply issues.
Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 27.9 percent.
Still, stocks held in LME-approved warehouses declined to 70,125 tonnes, the lowest since November 2005, capping losses.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.95% at 296.55 as inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 14.2 percent from last Friday. On the fundamentals, some smelters lowered their zinc ingot output estimate as the tight supply of raw materials. The downstream will postpone their production resumption until after the Winter Olympics. The zinc ingot inventory across the seven major regions in China totalled 263,100 mt, up 8,800 mt from Monday February 14 and up 20,400 mt from last Friday February 11. The domestic inventories continued to accumulate this week. In Shanghai, downstream producers restocked after they resumed production, but the inventory rose significantly as many cargoes arrived. In Guangdong, downstream demand improved, allowing the inventory growth to slow down. China's refined zinc output was 517,600 mt in January, 2022, up 4,300 mt MoM or 0.83% MoM, down 4.56% YoY. China's refined zinc output in February basically met expectations to decrease. Reasons for the increase in output: firstly, Wenshan Zinc and Indium, Yunnan resumed production after maintenance, which brought major increase; secondly, some smelters in Shaanxi increased production, but the output was less than expected; finally, some smelters in Gansu resumed normal production. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.05% to settled at 863 while prices down -2.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 294.1 and below same could see a test of 291.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 300.6, a move above could see prices testing 304.5.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 291.5-304.5.
Zinc dropped as inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 14.2 percent from last Friday.
On the fundamentals, some smelters lowered their zinc ingot output estimate as the tight supply of raw materials.
The downstream will postpone their production resumption until after the Winter Olympics.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 1809.3 as the supply side was still expected to be tight amid the possible disruptions to supplies from Russia. China produced 12,000 mt of refined nickel, up 7.94% YoY. The output decline in January was mainly influenced by the difference between natural month and fiscal month in large smelters in Gansu. Besides, the tight supply of raw materials also led to a partial reduction. However, the production in Xinjiang and Jilin is relatively stable. Output of refined nickel is expected to stand at 13,200 mt in February 2022, up 10.5% MoM, and down 3.5% YoY. Compared with the normal output, the monthly output declines in February, which is mainly caused by the reduction of output in natural days and the expected reduction brought by raw material supply problems. In recent session prices seen supported amid robust demand from the stainless steel and battery sectors against the backdrop of dwindling inventories. The output of nickel matte, on the other hand, was still a low level. Nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses were at their lowest since December 2019 at 83,736 tonnes, while premium for cash nickel over the three-month contract rose to $368 a tonne. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.1% to settled at 1855 while prices up 3.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1797.3 and below same could see a test of 1785.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1818.9, a move above could see prices testing 1828.6.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1785.4-1828.6.
Nickel gained as the supply side was still expected to be tight amid the possible disruptions to supplies from Russia.
China produced 12,000 mt of refined nickel, up 7.94% YoY.
Persistently high energy costs forced smelters to cut output, taking out crucial supply from an already tight market.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 260.35 as pressure seen after inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 9.8 percent from last Friday. However, downside seen limited amid dwindling inventories and concerns about further supply disruptions. The West's stand-off with Russia over Ukraine has raised prospects of sanctions on one of the world's largest metal suppliers, triggering a rush to aluminium stocks at LME warehouses, which currently sit at roughly 50% of March 2021 levels. Meantime, in China, the biggest producer and consumer of aluminum, the pandemic and pollution curbs amid the winter Olympics forced producers to halt production. The press conference of COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control of Baise was held. Huang Bin, director of the Industry and Information Technology Bureau of Baise, introduced that Baise had the largest aluminium reserves in south China, which exceeded 1 billion mt, accounting for about a quarter of the country’s total. The domestic aluminium billet inventory stood at 264,600 mt on February 17, a decrease of 2,900 mt or 1.08% week-on-week, falling for the first time post CNY. Among them, the inventory in Foshan dropped the most by 8,700 mt or 6.45%, followed by Nanchang where the local inventory fell 6,300 mt or 25.71%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.03% to settled at 1575 while prices down -1.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 259.2 and below same could see a test of 258.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 261.5, a move above could see prices testing 262.7.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 258.1-262.7.
Aluminium dropped as pressure seen after inventories in SHFE warehouses rose 9.8 percent.
However, downside seen limited amid dwindling inventories and concerns about further supply disruptions.
Meantime, in China, the pandemic and pollution curbs amid the winter Olympics forced producers to halt production.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 951.8 as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster. There is an explosive situation of infection in seven states of the country. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, this curiosity arises in the mind whether there will be a lock down in the country. Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15% led by growth of Covid-19 products in the last one year as against a single digit growth of 3% shown last year, according to Indian pharmaceutical market research company Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd in its latest report. Also as per the latest news going viral in market is that Mandi Tax has been exempted for exports and the orders have been sent to all Mandi Sectt offices district wise, while trader are waiting for complete information on same. Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices. Also the FMCG makers also expect that a sudden increase in COVID cases and some restrictions imposed by local authorities in some states would again impact the demand for out of home' channels products, which was recovering from the last few months, though demand for home consumption and immunity products is going to gain for few weeks. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 1.3 Rupees to end at 1089.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.62% to settled at 738 while prices down -0.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 948 and below same could see a test of 944.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 954.7, a move above could see prices testing 957.6.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 944.2-957.6.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1.3 Rupees to end at 1089.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices dropped as sentiments dropped with the third wave of corona virus is spreading faster.
Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15%.
Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 4.29% at 10218 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year, but higher by 6.5% over the 5-year average. For the past three years, traders were offering lower price for turmeric due to lack of demand. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9244.45 Rupees gained 12.85 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.39% to settled at 11710 while prices up 420 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9900 and below same could see a test of 9580 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 10410, a move above could see prices testing 10600.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9580-10600.
Turmeric gained as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra.
In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9244.45 Rupees gained 12.85 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.43% at 22115 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area. However export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival despite the news that China export started again. According to government data, cumin exports declined by 24% year-on-year to 1.74 lakh tonnes in April-December from 2.30 lakh tonnes in the previous year. The export of cumin seeds declined by 20% year-on-year to 1.61 lakh tonnes in April-November, from 2.02 lakh tonnes in the previous year. There is a possibility of damage to the cumin crop due to rain and cloudy sky. The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability. The cropped area has fallen due to a shift towards other crops like cotton, soybean and mustard, which offered lucrative returns last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 427.65 Rupees to end at 20984.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.34% to settled at 11361 while prices up 525 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21760 and below same could see a test of 21400 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22310, a move above could see prices testing 22500.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21400-22500.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year.
In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 427.65 Rupees to end at 20984.8 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 37720 amid increase in demand due to higher consumption, increased exports from India along with minimal opening stock. Tamil Nadu's total area under the crop in 2021-22 is 0.74 lakh hectares which is 33 per cent lesser than the previous year and production is 1.61 lakh bales which is 35 per cent lesser than the previous year. The International Cotton Advisory Committee has estimated the global cotton consumption to rise about 25.63 million tonnes for 2021-22, which is five percent higher than 2020-21. As per USDA reports, China and India together are expected to account for more than half of the global cotton crop in 2021-22, as the world cotton production is projected at 26.5 million tonnes, six per cent higher than 2020-21. As per the estimates of Cotton Association of India, cotton consumption in India is expected to be increased to 345 lakh bales, which is 2.8 per cent increase over the last year. Cotton production is estimated to be 360 lakh bales (1 bale of 170 kg) in India during 2021-22 and India's cotton export is estimated at 48 lakh bales against 78 lakh bales estimated in 2020-21 year. According to CAI, India's cotton imports during 2021-22 will increase by five lakh bales to 15 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -40 Rupees to end at 37740 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.83% to settled at 4636 while prices up 170 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37530 and below same could see a test of 37350 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37840, a move above could see prices testing 37970.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 37350-37970.
Cotton prices rose amid increase in demand due to higher consumption, increased exports from India along with minimal opening stock.
ICAC has estimated the global cotton consumption to rise about 25.63 million tonnes for 2021-22, which is five percent higher than 2020-21.
Cotton consumption in India is expected to be increased to 345 lakh bales, which is 2.8 per cent increase over the last year.
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -40 Rupees to end at 37740 Rupees.

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