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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.58% at 51897 as U.S. Treasury bond yields slipped from multi-year highs, Federal Reserve minutes released the previous day reinforced the rate-hike momentum already priced into markets. Support also seen as inflation worries intensified by the Ukraine war and mounting sanctions on Russia eclipsed pressure from the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive policy stance. Minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed deepening concern among policymakers that inflation had broadened through the economy, with "many" participants prepared to raise interest rates in 50-basis-point increments in coming policy meetings. FOMC minutes from the last meeting and remarks from several officials including Lael Brainard showed the Fed will make a quick reduction in its balance sheet while some officials would have preferred a bigger hike in the fed funds rate. Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor the war in Ukraine which is far from over. The US announced new sanctions on Russia and the EU is set to follow although a European ban on natural gas imports from Russia is unlikely. A new round of European Union sanctions on Russia could be agreed by the bloc on Thursday or Friday, the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell said at a NATO meeting, while Moscow continues to attack Ukrainian regions. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.59% to settled at 18024 while prices up 301 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51638 and below same could see a test of 51378 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52070, a move above could see prices testing 52242.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51378-52242.
Gold prices rose as U.S. Treasury bond yields slipped from multi-year highs
FOMC minutes and remarks from several officials including Lael Brainard showed the Fed will make a quick reduction in its balance sheet
Fed minutes reflect growing fears about inflation

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.69% at 66765 as inflation worries intensified by the Ukraine war and mounting sanctions on Russia eclipsed pressure from the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive policy stance. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, indicating a further tightening of labor market conditions heading into the second quarter, which could contribute to keeping inflation elevated. Part of the decline in claims back to a more than 53-year low touched in mid-March reflected a revision of the seasonal factors, the model that the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Labor Department switched to additive factors to seasonally adjust the initial and continued claims data from multiplicative factors, which economists had complained were less reliable because of the economic shock caused by the coronavirus crisis. As inflation worries mount, speculation is rife that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by a hefty 50 basis points at its meetings in May and June. Bond yields dipped slightly, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries declining three basis points to 2.57 percent after China's cabinet pledged to use monetary policy tools at an "appropriate time" to boost the economy amid a Covid outbreak and property-market woes. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.98% to settled at 7144 while prices up 460 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66339 and below same could see a test of 65914 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67002, a move above could see prices testing 67240.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 65914-67240.
Silver rose amid inflation worries intensified by the Ukraine war and mounting sanctions on Russia
Weekly jobless claims fall 5,000 to 166,000
Continuing claims increase 17,000 to 1.523 million

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.57% at 7278 after consuming nations announced a huge release of oil from emergency reserves, with worries over tight supplies still clouding the market outlook. International Energy Agency states agreed to tap 60 million barrels of oil from storage, the director of the group said, on top of a 180 million-barrel release announced by Washington last week aimed at cooling prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The move by the U.S.-allied IEA countries, which represent 31 mostly industrialized countries but not Russia, would be their second coordinated release in a month and would be the fifth in the agency's history to confront oil market outages. Russia's production of oil and gas condensate fell to 10.52 million bpd on April 1-6 from a March average of 11.01 million bpd. China's oil demand is expected to rebound to 14.26 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, after dropping to 13.9 million bpd in the previous quarter as the country's zero-COVID policy dampened consumption, a senior researcher from China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) said. China, the world's biggest oil importer, said it will strictly control new capacity in its oil refining industry and will accelerate the elimination of inefficient and outdated production capacity. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.09% to settled at 6871 while prices down -116 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7108 and below same could see a test of 6937 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7483, a move above could see prices testing 7687.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6937-7687.
Crude oil seen under pressure after consuming nations announced a huge release of oil from emergency reserves
IEA countries to tap 60 mln barrels of oil on top of U.S. release
Japan will release 15 million barrels of oil from state and private reserves as part of the move

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.58% at 476.7 on a decline in output and forecasts for more gas demand from power generators over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price increase came despite forecasts for mild weather through late April and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. gas futures have climbed in recent months – average prices in March hit their highest levels in eight years – while global gas prices and demand for LNG soared as several countries seek to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 94.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 1.4 bcfd to 93.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Texas, according to preliminary Refinitiv data. If that drop is correct – preliminary data is often revised – it would be the biggest one-day decline since extreme cold in early February froze wells. Cold was definitely not the problem. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.38% to settled at 10493 while prices up 12 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 461.8 and below same could see a test of 447 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 485.7, a move above could see prices testing 494.8.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 447-494.8.
Natural gas edged up on a preliminary decline in output and forecasts for more LNG export demand for gas.
Global gas prices and demand for LNG soared as several countries seek to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.
That price increase came despite forecasts for mild weather through late April and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 817 as the US dollar climbed to its highest level in the past two years boosted by the hawkish voices of the US Fed officials, however downside seen limited as more sanctions on key producer Russia raised concerns over supply. Russian forces bombarded cities in Ukraine as the United States imposed more sanctions after civilian killings widely condemned as war crimes and Ukraine's President urged a decisive Western response amid divisions in Europe. China, the biggest metals consumer, is facing its most severe COVID-19 wave since the Wuhan outbreak and Chinese manufacturing and services activity shrank in March. The spot copper market in Shanghai has stagnated as warehousing logistics has been suspended in the ongoing COVID lockdown in the city that reported a surge in asymptomatic infection. In order to meet production needs, downstream enterprises have been forced to turn to smelters and warehouses in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which border Shanghai. However, the inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is limited, which coupled with the rapidly growing demand, pushed up local premiums rapidly from 300 yuan/mt before the Qingming Festival. Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw exports of the red metal reach $4.95 billion in March, the Andean country's central bank said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.78% to settled at 3702 while prices down -0.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 811.8 and below same could see a test of 806.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 820.5, a move above could see prices testing 824.1.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 806.7-824.1.
Copper settled flat as the US dollar climbed to its highest level in the past two years boosted by the hawkish voices of the US Fed officials
COVID lockdown in Shanghai paralysed local copper market while boosting premiums in neighbouring regions
Chile copper exports total $4.95 bln in March

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.27% at 349.15 as pressure seen after Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd plans to produce 113,300 tonnes of refined zinc in the first half of the 2022/23 financial year, up 5.6% from a year earlier. The London Metal Exchange will raise margin on zinc trading by 12% to $322/mt, effective from Friday April 8, 2022. China's foreign exchange reserves fell more than expected in March, official data showed, as the dollar gained against other major currencies. The country's foreign exchange reserves – the world's largest – fell $25.8 billion to $3.188 trillion last months, compared with $3.2 trillion tipped a Reuters poll of analysts and $3.214 trillion in February. Toho Zinc Co Ltd, Japan's third-biggest zinc smelter, plans to produce 42,900 tonnes of refined zinc in the first half of the 2022/23 financial year, down 2.3% from a year earlier. In China, the number of confirmed COVID cases continues to rise today, and the pandemic situation is not improving. In this case, domestic demand could hardly see marginal changes, and weak demand has dragged down the prices. In the spot market, on the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, Shanghai is still under strict pandemic prevention and control with broad lockdown. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.01% to settled at 1372 while prices down -4.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 346.6 and below same could see a test of 344.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 353.1, a move above could see prices testing 357.1.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 344.1-357.1.
Zinc dropped as pressure seen after Japan's Mitsui Mining expects H1 zinc output up 5.6% y/y
LME to raise margin on zinc trading by 12%
China's March forex reserves fall to $3.188 trln

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.59% at 2464.3 on profit booking after seen supported as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt. Pressure seen on disappointing China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.15% to settled at 172 while prices down -65.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2426.8 and below same could see a test of 2389.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2525.8, a move above could see prices testing 2587.4.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2389.4-2587.4.
Nickel dropped on profit booking after seen supported as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt.
Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.51% at 276.65 as COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China and prospects of bigger U.S. rate hikes fuelled worries about a slowdown in global economic growth. Shanghai made concessions on an unpopular COVID isolation policy that has separated children from their parents and sparked a public outcry, but extended a citywide lockdown that has left some residents struggling to buy food. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for April to June was set at $172 a tonne, down 2.8% from the previous quarter, as weak demand in Japan and China outweighed concerns of supply disruptions from Russia. The figure is lower than the $177 per tonne paid in the January-March quarter and marks a second consecutive quarterly drop. It is also lower than initial offers of $195-$250 made by producers. Japan is Asia's biggest aluminium importer and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region. The resumed production will start to yield output in Q2, resulting in palpable increase in supply. Meanwhile, the operating rates fell amid weakening demand in light of pandemic and high aluminium prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.57% to settled at 2449 while prices down -4.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 272.8 and below same could see a test of 269 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 281, a move above could see prices testing 285.4.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 269-285.4.
Aluminium dropped as COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China fuelled worries about a slowdown in global economic growth.
Japan buyers agree to Q2 aluminium premium of $172/T
The resumed production will start to yield output in Q2, resulting in palpable increase in supply.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.78% at 1129.6 on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 17.8 Rupees to end at 1235.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.18% to settled at 936 while prices up 19.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1113.2 and below same could see a test of 1096.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1139.6, a move above could see prices testing 1149.5.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1096.7-1149.5.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 17.8 Rupees to end at 1235.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.43% at 9938 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9202.65 Rupees gained 180.45 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.77% to settled at 13945 while prices up 330 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9662 and below same could see a test of 9384 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 10158, a move above could see prices testing 10376.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9384-10376.
Turmeric gained as Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones
New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9202.65 Rupees gained 180.45 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.54% at 22930 as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -11.8 Rupees to end at 22229.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.83% to settled at 12603 while prices down -125 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22740 and below same could see a test of 22555 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 23185, a move above could see prices testing 23445.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 22555-23445.
Jeera dropped as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
At Jodhpur market, new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -11.8 Rupees to end at 22229.4 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 43580 on profit booking after seen supported on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export. The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week. At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment, similarly the stock of Binola is also low. The price of cotton yarn is continuously increasing, but there is no major demand in the domestic market and export market, due to which the Spinners' Mills Association has cut production, due to which cotton industries will benefit in the long run. Spinning mills are buying cotton at higher prices as the balance sheet of cotton is becoming tighter continuously. USDA's planting intentions report showed U.S. cotton acreage at 12.234 million acres for the 2022/2023 marketing year versus 12.007 million acres forecasted. The USDA also released weekly export sales data which showed net sales of 234,000 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022, down 24% from the previous week. In spot market, Cotton gained by 50 Rupees to end at 44110 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.04% to settled at 4991 while prices down -110 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 43160 and below same could see a test of 42730 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44060, a move above could see prices testing 44530.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 42730-44530.
Cotton dropped on profit booking after seen supported on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export.
The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week.
At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 50 Rupees to end at 44110 Rupees.

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