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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 60965 after grim data on U.S. job openings further clouded the economic picture ahead of the Federal Reserve's widely anticipated decision to hike interest rate. Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 25bps to a range of 5%-5.25% during its May meeting, marking the 10th increase and bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since September 2007. The decision came in line with market expectations. The central bank also signaled that it may be done with a tightening cycle by taking out from the statement sentence pointing to the need for additional policy firming. Data showed that US consumer sentiment improved in April, while core PCE inflation exceeded forecasts in March. High gold prices kept physical demand tepid in key Asian centres, prompting dealers in India to extend discounts after a key bullion-buying festival spurred limited activity. "Consumers made purchases on Akshaya Tritiya and even a day after the festival", but demand was lower than normal amid record prices. Dealers offered discounts of up to $12 an ounce over official domestic prices versus $16 discounts last week. Jewellers bought less gold than normal from banks as many retail consumers replaced old jewellery for new. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.39% to settle at 15339 while prices are up 337 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 60660 and below same could see a test of 60354 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61147, a move above could see prices testing 61328.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 60354-61328.
* Gold extended their rally after the Federal Reserve delivered a 25bps rate hike
* US consumer sentiment improved in April, while core PCE inflation exceeded forecasts in March.
* High gold prices kept physical demand tepid in key Asian centres, prompting dealers in India to extend discounts

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 76582 as yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell back to under the 3.45% level on Tuesday, firmly below the one-month high of 3.6% touched on April 19th as underwhelming labor market data pared concerns of an overly-hawkish Federal Reserve ahead of the central bank’s rate decision tomorrow. JPMorgan Chase & Co said it would buy most of First Republic Bank's assets after regulators seized the troubled lender at the weekend, marking the third failure of a major U.S. bank in two months. Investors will also focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference to assess if the commentary pushes back market expectations of rate cuts before the year-end amid the recent banking turmoil and threats of an imminent recession. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US was revised lower to 50.2 in April 2023 from a preliminary of 50.4, and compared to 49.2 in March. New orders returned to expansion territory and production increased at the fastest pace since May 2022 while new export orders contracted further. Nonetheless, anticipations of greater future sales led firms to ramp up employment, with the rate of job creation reaching the fastest since September 2022. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.69% to settle at 19336 while prices are up 334 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 75984 and below same could see a test of 75386 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 77009, a move above could see prices testing 77436.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 75386-77436.
* Silver rose as Fed raised the funds rate by 25bps to a range of 5%-5.25%
* The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US was revised lower to 50.2 in April 2023
* JPM buys most of First Republic Bank's assets

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.37% at 5647 on weak economic data from China, expectations of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) this week, and concerns about ample supply. Oil prices have also come under pressure after official data showed manufacturing activity in China, the world's top crude importer, fell unexpectedly in April. This marks the first contraction in the manufacturing purchasing managers' index since December. OPEC oil output fell in April due to a halt in some of Iraq's exports and delays to Nigerian shipments, adding to the impact of strong adherence by top producers to a supply cut deal by the wider OPEC+ alliance. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 28.62 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, down 190,000 bpd from March. Output is down more than 1 million bpd from September. The survey aims to track supply to the market. It is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from companies that track flows such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants. Iraq produced 3.938 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in April, down by 262,000 bpd from March. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.37% to settle at 20099 while prices are down -258 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5519 and below same could see a test of 5392 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5836, a move above could see prices testing 6026.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5392-6026.
* Crude oil dropped on weak China data and ample supply concerns
* OPEC output rises 120,000 bpd from November – survey
* Nigerian output rises by 170,000 bpd, biggest gain in group

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.49% at 178.6 as drillers keep pulling record amounts of gas out of the ground while seasonally warmer weather cuts heating demand and the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants declines as units shut for spring maintenance. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from a record 101.4 bcfd in April. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would turn from colder-than-normal now to near- to warmer-than-normal from May 6-17. Gas stockpiles in northwest Europe – Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands – were currently at about 60% of capacity, keeping the amount of gas in storage about 57% above its five-year (2018-2022) average for the time of year, according to Refinitiv. That is much more gas in storage than in U.S. inventories, which were about 22% above their five-year norm again due to mostly mild weather last winter. Gas was trading at a 21-month low of around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and a 22-month low of $12 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.2% to settle at 44303 while prices are down -2.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 173.3 and below same could see a test of 168.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 184.2, a move above could see prices testing 189.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 168.1-189.9.
* Natural gas fell on rising output
* Pressure also seen amid a decline in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants in recent days.
* US utilities added 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 735.35 pressured by the sluggish pace of metals demand recovery in China despite shedding strict COVID-19 restrictions, fears of a recession in Western countries and banking turmoil in the U.S. The global copper market is expected to see a deficit this year, steered by improved Chinese demand, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. The ICSG forecast a deficit of about 114,000 tonnes for 2023 compared with a surplus of about 155,000 tonnes expected last October, mainly due to better expectations for Chinese usage. However, "a surplus of about 298,000 tonnes is expected in 2024 as a consequence of additional supply." "The reopening of China after the zero-Covid policy, a recovery in the rest of the world from constrained demand in 2022 and improved economic growth in 2024 are all expected to support usage growth in 2023 and 2024," the organisation said. "Although the global economic outlook is challenging, manufacturing activity is expected to continue rising in most of the key copper end-use sectors." Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer, fell 4.7% in March year-on-year to 440,389 tonnes, the country's INE statistics agency said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.7% to settle at 5622 while prices are down -3.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 732.5 and below same could see a test of 729.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 739.1, a move above could see prices testing 742.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 729.6-742.8.
* Copper dropped pressured by the sluggish pace of metals demand recovery in China.
* The global copper market is expected to see a deficit this year, steered by improved Chinese demand.
* Chile's copper output falls 4.7% y/y in March

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 234.1 as Global refined zinc market is likely be in a deficit in 2023, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said. Global demand for refined zinc metal will exceed supply in 2023 with the extent of the deficit currently forecast at a modest 45,000 tonnes, the ILZSG said. Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 114,900 mt as of April 28, down 21,600 mt from Monday April 24 and 21,800 mt lower compared with the prior week. In Shanghai, the slump in zinc prices buoyed the purchasing willingness of downstream buyers in addition to their restocking demand, so the inventory in Shanghai dropped sharply. In Guangdong, the market arrivals sank slightly, but the daily outflow from the warehouses steadied at 1,500 mt, leading to a drastic fall in local inventory. In Tianjin, despite the growing arrivals, downstream demand also improved. Therefore, goods holders were keen on selling, and the market transactions were brisk, allowing the inventory in Tianjin to slip. Overall, the total inventory in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin fell 19,500 mt, and that across seven major markets in China was down by 21,600 mt. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.91% to settle at 3689 while prices are up 1.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 232 and below same could see a test of 229.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 235.9, a move above could see prices testing 237.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 229.8-237.6.
* Zinc gained as Global zinc market to be in deficit for 2023
* However, upside seen limited demand fell below expectations amid slow global economy
* Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots in China totalled 114,900 mt, down 21,600 mt


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.19% at 207.95 as U.S. economy is likely to slow down in the second half of this year or even fall into recession, and the impact of bank financial risks persists. Aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 853,000 mt as of April 27, down 53,000 mt from a week ago and 135,000 mt from the same period last year. On fundamentals, this week's aluminium ingot inventory and aluminium billet inventory both declined. The operating rate of leading aluminium downstream processing companies continued to pick up, but may drop after the Labour Day holiday. The NBS Composite PMI Output Index in China declined to 54.4 in April 2023 from a record high of 57.0 in the previous month. It was also the lowest figure since January, as factory activity contracted following growth in the prior three months due to slack global demand and persistent property weakness. At the same time, the service sector expanded at a softer pace, despite growing for the fourth successive month. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to a four-month low of 49.2 in April of 2023 from 51.9 in March, missing market estimates of 51.4. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.76% to settle at 2829 while prices are down -2.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 207 and below same could see a test of 205.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.7, a move above could see prices testing 211.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 205.9-211.3.
* Aluminum dropped as U.S. economy is likely to slow down
* China’s Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to a four-month low of 49.2 in April of 2023 from 51.9 in March
* China’s PMI Output Index in China declined to 54.4 in April 2023 from a record high of 57.0 in the previous month.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 971.5 on profit booking after prices seen supported in wake of weaker production outlook. Forecast of above normal temperature during Apr-May is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely that will support the firmness in prices. Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes as compared to 2,493.53 tonnes exported during Apr-Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 233.21 tonnes in January 2023 showing a drop of 9.62%. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -8.2 Rupees to end at 1136.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.43% to settle at 706 while prices are down -1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 968.5 and below same could see a test of 965.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 974.2, a move above could see prices testing 976.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 965.4-976.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -8.2 Rupees to end at 1136.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported in wake of weaker production outlook.
* Forecast of above normal temperature during Apr-May is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely that will support the prices
* In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.26% at 7214 as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2023, rose by 10.42 percent at 151,298.89 tonnes as compared to 137,017.23 tonnes exported during Apr- Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,484.25 tonnes in January 2023 showing a rise of 18.60%. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,358.22 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 42.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6985.55 Rupees gained 101.25 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.02% to settle at 7995 while prices are up 90 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7014 and below same could see a test of 6812 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7444, a move above could see prices testing 7672.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6812-7672.
* Turmeric rose as crops got damaged due to untimely rains in Andhra Pradesh
* Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6985.55 Rupees gained 101.25 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 45490 on profit booking after prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -153.7 Rupees to end at 45026.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.08% to settle at 5190 while prices are down -70 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 44400 and below same could see a test of 43315 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46175, a move above could see prices testing 46865.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 43315-46865.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose on crop worries
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -153.7 Rupees to end at 45026.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

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