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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 51371 as higher U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve dimmed the appeal of non-yielding bullion. U.S. two-year Treasury yields were near their highest level since early-2019 while the 10-year yields also gained. The dollar index steadied after rising for three straight sessions supported by safe-haven flows on prospects of more sanctions on Russia. Markets are looking forward to Wednesday's release of minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting for signs if the central bank would raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 50 basis points next month to rein in inflation. Physical gold demand in India improved as domestic prices dropped ahead of a festival, while purchases in top consumer China were limited by COVID-19 lockdowns. There was a slight improvement in demand from jewellers but gold was still trading at a hefty discount. Dealers were offering a discount of up to $35 an ounce on official domestic prices down from the last week's discount of $53. In China, gold discounts widened to $2-$6 an ounce on global benchmark spot rates compared with $5 in the previous week. Ukraine's gold and foreign currency reserves stand at $29 billion, the same level as before Russia's invasion thanks to external financial support, the president's economic adviser Oleh Ustenko said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.39% to settled at 17692 while prices down -162 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51155 and below same could see a test of 50940 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51681, a move above could see prices testing 51992.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50940-51992.
Gold dropped as elevated U.S. Treasury yields after strong March jobs data weighed
Although the war in Ukraine and risk-off sentiment in wider stock markets bolstered safe-haven demand for the metal.
Physical gold demand in India improved as domestic prices dropped ahead of a festival, while purchases in top consumer China were limited by COVID-19 lockdowns


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 66198 as investors remained cautious amid expectations of further sanctions following alleged war crimes by Russian troops in Ukraine. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said she expects methodical interest rate increases and rapid reductions to the Fed's balance sheet to bring U.S. monetary policy to a "more neutral position" later this year, with further tightening to follow as needed. "It is of paramount importance to get inflation down," Brainard said in remarks prepared for delivery to a conference at the Minneapolis Fed. "Accordingly, the committee will continue tightening monetary policy methodically through a series of interest rate increases and by starting to reduce the balance sheet at a rapid pace as soon as our May meeting." The ISM Services PMI for the US increased to 58.3 in March of 2022 from 56.5 in February, due to easing pandemic restrictions although rising costs and supply strains persisted. The Fed on Wednesday releases minutes of its March meeting that are expected to provide fresh details on the pace and scope of the Fed's plans to reduce its bond holdings. Investors bet the Federal Reserve will deliver a 50bps hike in May to tame decades-high inflation amid a falling unemployment rate and accelerating wage growth. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.13% to settled at 8058 while prices down -97 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65769 and below same could see a test of 65339 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66882, a move above could see prices testing 67565.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 65339-67565.
Silver dropped as investors remained cautious amid expectations of further sanctions following alleged war crimes by Russian troops in Ukraine.
Fed's Brainard sees methodical rate hikes, rapid balance sheet shrinkage
The ISM Services PMI for the US increased to 58.3 in March of 2022 from 56.5 in February


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.91% at 7785 as Europe announced plans to impose new sanctions on Russian oil imports to punish Moscow over alleged war crimes in Ukraine, raising concerns over tighter global supply. The European Commission on Tuesday proposed new sanctions against Russia, including a ban on buying Russian coal and on Russian ships entering EU ports. To calm oil prices, U.S.-allied countries agreed last week to a coordinated oil release from strategic reserves for the second time in a month. However, Japanese industry minister Koichi Hagiuda said that the International Energy Agency (IEA) was still examining details of the release. Kazakhstan has cut its oil output forecast to 85.7 million tonnes this year from the previous target of 87.5 million after damage to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in Russia, economy minister Alibek Kuantyrov said. The CPC, which ships about 80% of Kazakh crude exports, is working at half capacity after briefly halting loading last month from its Black Sea terminal following storm damage to mooring points. Russian daily oil and gas condensate production has declined by 4% in early April from March, Interfax news agency reported. In March, Russian oil and gas condensate output fell to 11.01 million barrels per day (bpd) from 11.06 million bpd in February. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.04% to settled at 4651 while prices up 70 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7663 and below same could see a test of 7542 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7925, a move above could see prices testing 8066.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7542-8066.
Crude oil prices rose as Europe announced plans to impose new sanctions on Russian oil imports to punish Moscow over alleged war crimes in Ukraine
Kazakhstan cuts 2022 oil output outlook to 85.7 mln t
Iraq's crude production in March was 222,000 bpd lower than its OPEC+ quota


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 6.29% at 462.9 on a preliminary drop in U.S. output and the possibility that additional sanctions on Russian gas supplies will keep U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs for months to come. That price increase came despite forecasts for mild weather through late April and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. gas futures have climbed in recent months – average prices in March hit their highest levels in eight years – while global gas prices and demand for LNG soared as several countries seek to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 94.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 1.4 bcfd to 93.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Texas, according to preliminary Refinitiv data. If that drop is correct – preliminary data is often revised – it would be the biggest one-day decline since extreme cold in early February froze wells. Cold was definitely not the problem. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 37.44% to settled at 10818 while prices up 27.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 445.7 and below same could see a test of 428.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 473.8, a move above could see prices testing 484.6.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 428.4-484.6.
Natural gas jumped on a preliminary drop in U.S. output and the possibility that additional sanctions on Russian gas supplies.
Global gas prices and demand for LNG soared as several countries seek to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.
That price increase came despite forecasts for mild weather through late April and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.06% at 821.05 as a drop in output from top producer Chile and the potential for more sanctions on Russia raised risks of supply shortages. Chile's copper production tumbled in February, government body Cochilco said with state-owned copper giant Codelco seeing production edge up 0.7% year-on-year to 123,600 tonnes, but other major mines seeing output fall steeply. The world's top copper producing country saw total production fall 7.5% in the month to 394,700 tonnes, the State Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) said in a report. With potentially further sanctions on Russia, there's some concern that we may have further disruption of commodity supply chains. The United States and Europe were planning new sanctions to punish Moscow over civilian killings in Ukraine, and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned more deaths were likely to be uncovered in areas seized from Russian invaders. The major Chinese financial centre of Shanghai extended restrictions on transportation on Tuesday after a day of intensive city-wide testing saw new cases surge to more than 13,000, with no end to the lockdown yet in sight. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar held firm near one-week high on talks of more sanctions against Moscow, making greenback-denominated metals more expensive to buyers using other currencies. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.14% to settled at 3705 while prices up 0.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 816.5 and below same could see a test of 812 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 827.7, a move above could see prices testing 834.4.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 812-834.4.
Copper prices rose as a drop in output from top producer Chile and the potential for more sanctions on Russia raised risks of supply shortages.
LME copper hits near one – week peak on supply concerns
Chile's copper production fell 7.5% in February to 394,700 tonnes.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.86% at 352.45 amid lingering concerns of further supply disruptions due to prolonged high energy prices. Exchange and trade inventory has been falling dramatically, with LME’s European warehouses virtually empty while these in the US have declined to 25,925 tons. Mounting sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine triggered an international energy crunch, which, in turn, led to many smelters halting or reducing zinc metal production. On top of that, strong consumption from the steel sector will continue to boost the demand for zinc in the coming months. On-warrant inventories of zinc in LME-registered warehouses fell to 78,125 tonnes, the lowest since May 2020 and down from about 130,000 tonnes in mid-March. High energy prices have forced some zinc smelters in Europe to curtail production and Russia's demand for payment for gas in roubles has raised fears of supply shortages or still higher prices. Germany said the West would agree to impose more sanctions on Russia in the coming days as nations around the world expressed outrage over civilian deaths in Ukraine. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.51% to settled at 1318 while prices up 3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 348.4 and below same could see a test of 344.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 357.8, a move above could see prices testing 363.1.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 344.3-363.1.
Zinc rose amid lingering concerns of further supply disruptions due to prolonged high energy prices.
Some manufacturers planned to suspend the production amid a complicated market.
On-warrant inventories of zinc in LME warehouses fell to 78,125 tonnes, the lowest since May 2020 and down from about 130,000 tonnes in mid-March


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.19% at 2529.7 as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt. Pressure seen on disappointing China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.95% to settled at 174 while prices up 29.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2488.8 and below same could see a test of 2447.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2556.8, a move above could see prices testing 2583.9.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2447.9-2583.9.
Nickel rose as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt.
Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.36% at 279.9 amid supply disruptions and increased production costs on the heels of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, upside seen limited as aluminium production resumption accelerated, but output in Q1 will drop YoY. Earlier, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a ban on alumina and aluminum ores exports to Russia. Australia supplies almost 20% of Russia's alumina, the key ingredient for producing aluminum, and the move aims to inflict more economic pain on the Krelim over its decision to invade Ukraine. Supporting prices further were risks of supply shortages amid the heightened Russia-Ukraine war and dwelling exchange inventories. Pandemic has restricted downstream operating rates, and aluminium social inventory dropped slowly, with a number of ingot on road. China is stepping up exports of aluminium to fill a widening supply gap in Western markets. The country shipped out 26,378 tonnes of primary aluminium in February, the highest monthly total since 2010. Imports collapsed over the first two months of the year, with the result that China turned a net exporter in February for the first time since November 2019. China's factory activity slumped at the fastest pace in two years in March, as the domestic COVID-19 resurgence and the economic fallout from the Ukraine war triggered sharp falls in production and demand, a business survey showed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.44% to settled at 2462 while prices up 3.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 277.4 and below same could see a test of 274.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 283.2, a move above could see prices testing 286.4.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 274.8-286.4.
Aluminium rose amid supply disruptions and increased production costs on the heels of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
However, upside seen limited as aluminium production resumption accelerated
Pandemic has restricted downstream operating rates, and aluminium social inventory dropped slowly, with a number of ingot on road.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.67% at 1121.4 on profit booking after prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 15.2 Rupees to end at 1235.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.85% to settled at 962 while prices down -19.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1107 and below same could see a test of 1092.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1143.9, a move above could see prices testing 1166.4.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1092.6-1166.4.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 15.2 Rupees to end at 1235.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
# Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 4.07% at 9768 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8873.7 Rupees gained 183.7 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.87% to settled at 10740 while prices up 382 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9468 and below same could see a test of 9166 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9976, a move above could see prices testing 10182.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9166-10182.
Turmeric gained as Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones
New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8873.7 Rupees gained 183.7 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.93% at 23370 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 504.3 Rupees to end at 22340 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.84% to settled at 10911 while prices up 665 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22935 and below same could see a test of 22505 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 23645, a move above could see prices testing 23925.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 22505-23925.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
Export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
At Jodhpur market, new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 504.3 Rupees to end at 22340 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.75% at 43010 on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export. The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week. At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment, similarly the stock of Binola is also low. The price of cotton yarn is continuously increasing, but there is no major demand in the domestic market and export market, due to which the Spinners' Mills Association has cut production, due to which cotton industries will benefit in the long run. Spinning mills are buying cotton at higher prices as the balance sheet of cotton is becoming tighter continuously. USDA's planting intentions report showed U.S. cotton acreage at 12.234 million acres for the 2022/2023 marketing year versus 12.007 million acres forecasted. The USDA also released weekly export sales data which showed net sales of 234,000 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022, down 24% from the previous week. In spot market, Cotton gained by 310 Rupees to end at 44020 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.05% to settled at 5463 while prices up 320 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 42650 and below same could see a test of 42280 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 43370, a move above could see prices testing 43720.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 42280-43720.
Cotton gains on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export.
The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week.
At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 310 Rupees to end at 44020 Rupees.

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