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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 47499 after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he expects inflation will moderate, which, in turn, should mean an interest rate hike is some time off. Although gains were capped by elevated Treasury yields and the potential reduction in Federal Reserve’s asset purchases. Production at U.S. factories fell by the most in seven months in September, another indication that supply constraints were hampering economic growth. Yet, the Fed official also noted that the central bank may need to adopt a more aggressive policy response should inflation keep rising at its current pace rather than subsiding. The precious metal has been searching for direction since July as markets look for cues over the pace at which the Federal Reserve plans to cut pandemic-era stimulus. The latest run-up in energy prices added to fears that inflation won’t fade soon and central banks will need to raise rates earlier than expected, pushing government bond yields up and driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said if inflation keeps rising at its current pace in the next few months, Fed policymakers may need to adopt “a more aggressive policy response” next year. Bullion is often considered an inflation hedge, though reduced stimulus and interest rate hikes push government bond yields up, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.95% to settled at 11472 while prices up 219 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47314 and below same could see a test of 47130 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47629, a move above could see prices testing 47760.
Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 47130-47760.

* Gold gains after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he expects inflation will moderate

* Although gains were capped by elevated Treasury yields and the potential reduction in Federal Reserve’s asset purchases.

* Production at U.S. factories fell by the most in seven months in September, another indication that supply constraints were hampering economic growth.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.8% at 65607 as long-lasting inflation poses a threat to the global economy. Prices paid by American consumers rose in September by more than expected, marking the sixth consecutive month of hot inflation. As a consequence, Federal Reserve officials are likely to agree on tapering next month as shown in the latest FOMC minutes. Upside in the metal was capped by elevated Treasury yields prompted by hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit five-month peak after Waller said that policymakers may need to adopt "a more aggressive policy response" next year to dampen down price pressures. Waller also said in remarks to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research that the Fed should start cutting back its bond purchases (tapering) in November. A report released by the Commerce Department showed an unexpected decrease in new U.S. residential construction in the month of September. The Commerce Department said housing starts fell by 1.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.555 million in September from a revised rate of 1.580 million in August. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.21% to settled at 9246 while prices up 1157 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64741 and below same could see a test of 63876 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66116, a move above could see prices testing 66626.
Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 63876-66626.

* Silver rose as long-lasting inflation poses a threat to the global economy.

* Upside in the metal was capped by elevated Treasury yields prompted by hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

* Fed’s Waller said that policymakers may need to adopt "a more aggressive policy response" next year to dampen down price pressures.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 6219 after the Chinese government stepped up efforts to tame record high coal prices and ensure coal mines operate at full capacity as Beijing moved to ease a power shortage. Saudi Arabia’s minister of energy said users switching from gas to oil could account for demand of 500,000-600,000 barrels per day, depending on winter weather and prices of other sources of energy. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, is opposed to oil prices exceeding an "acceptable" level and is studying ways to balance the market, Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar said. Speaking to reporters in Baghdad, he said $75 to $85 is an "acceptable" price range for a barrel of crude in the long term. OPEC+ is "at the same time against further boosting global oil inventories, as they could lead to the collapse of oil markets," he said. Iraq's government budget for 2022 should be based on an oil price of $55 to $60, he said, adding he expected exports to average 3.4 million barrels per day in October including from the northern Kurdistan region. Crude oil prices could reach $100 per barrel in the first or second quarter of next year as global inventories are at their lowest level, Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.73% to settled at 5540 while prices down -9 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6108 and below same could see a test of 5998 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6284, a move above could see prices testing 6350.
Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5998-6350.

* Crude oil dropped after the Chinese government stepped up efforts to tame record high coal prices and ensure coal mines operate at full capacity

* U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said

* Oil at $75 – $85 is 'acceptable' long – term price, Iraqi minister says

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.19% at 388.1 on forecasts calling for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders noted that prices fell to a near four-week low earlier in the day on early forecasts calling for the weather to remain warmer than usual over the next two weeks. Even with the cooler midday forecast, however, the U.S. weather is still expected to remain a milder than normal through early November. Global gas prices were up 17% on Monday as utilities in Europe and Asia scrambled to fill inventories before the winter heating season. But no matter how high global prices rise, the United States was already close to producing LNG at full capacity. In addition, U.S. gas stockpiles, unlike those in Europe, were in good shape for the winter, with more than enough fuel available for the heating season. Speculators cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week to their lowest since April 2021, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. lower 48 states has risen to an average of 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October from 91.1 bcfd in September. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -30.32% to settled at 3571 while prices up 8.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 373.8 and below same could see a test of 359.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 396.6, a move above could see prices testing 405.
Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 359.4-405.

* Natural gas edged up on forecasts calling for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* Prices fell to a near four-week low earlier in the day on early forecasts calling for the weather to remain warmer than usual

* Speculators cut their net long positions for a second week in a row last week to their lowest since April 2021

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 793.15 amid fears of supply disruption from a mine in the world's No.2 producer Peru supported the market. U.S. homebuilding unexpectedly fell in September and permits dropped to a one-year low amid acute shortages of raw materials and labor, strengthening expectations that economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter. The dollar languished near the bottom of its recent range, knocked back by weak U.S. factory data and on market wagers of faster normalisation of monetary policy in other countries. A Peruvian community will block a key mining road used by MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in protest after failed negotiations with the Andean nation's government, a community leader told. LME cash copper was at a record high $1,103.50-a-tonne premium over the three-month contract, compared to $55 just a week earlier, indicating tight nearby inventories. On-warrant LME copper inventories plunged to their lowest since 1998 of 14,150 tonnes on Friday before rising to 21,050 tonnes, with one entity controlling between 50% and 79% of LME copper warrants , LME data showed. Meanwhile, freely available stockpiles have shrunk by more than 90% over the last couple of months in LME-monitored warehouses, a trend also seen in Chinese and American inventories. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.17% to settled at 3250 while prices up 1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 781.4 and below same could see a test of 769.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 799.9, a move above could see prices testing 806.7.
Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 769.7-806.7.

* Copper prices gained amid fears of supply disruption from a mine in the world's No.2 producer Peru.

* A Peruvian community will block a key mining road used by MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in protest after failed negotiations with the Andean nation's government

* LME cash copper was at a record high $1,103.50-a-tonne premium over the three-month contract, indicating tight nearby inventories.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.84% at 302.05 as investors fretted over supply shortage amid production cuts due to electricity price hikes in Europe. China's economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, its slowest pace in a year, hurt by power shortages, supply chain bottlenecks and troubles in the property market. Belgium-based Nyrstar said last week it would cut production by up to 50% at its three European zinc smelters and Glencore , which also has three zinc smelters in Europe, said it was "adjusting production" to save energy costs. Still, sky-high power prices are also lowering demand at metals-manufacturing companies and the Chinese state reserve bureau released 180,000 tonnes of zinc so far this year to contain prices. The global zinc surplus is likely to shrink to 44kt in 2022 from 217kt this year, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. Global zinc consumption growth is estimated at 6.2% in 2021 before easing to 2.3% next year. The overseas production reduction amid rising electricity and carbon emission costs has been intensifying. Though Glencore announced that it will only apply staggered production, the market still heated up as it takes up a large amount of the total production. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -30.91% to settled at 818 while prices up 5.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 294.4 and below same could see a test of 286.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 306.8, a move above could see prices testing 311.5.
Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 286.7-311.5.

* Zinc gains as investors fretted over supply shortage amid production cuts due to electricity price hikes in Europe.

* Belgium-based Nyrstar said it would cut production by up to 50% at its three European zinc smelters and Glencore

* China's economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, its slowest pace in a year
 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 4.42% at 1620 due to production curbs driven by power shortages in Asia and Europe. Also, inventories in ShFE warehouses hovered near a record low of 4,455 tonnes while stockpiles in LME warehouses declined to 149,412 tonnes, the lowest since December 2019. Meanwhile, Kosovo’s only ferro-nickel producer Newco Ferronikeli shut down production on Friday due to soaring energy prices. China’s central bank increased its short-term fund injection on Wednesday by offering 100 billion yuan ($15.67 billion) through seven-day reverse repos into the banking system. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) attributed the move to countering factors including tax payments and government bond issuance in order to keep banking system liquidity reasonably ample, it said in an online statement. The growth of China's new home prices in September stalled for the first time since February 2020, official data showed, as the property market softened further amid a sustained crackdown on speculation. The average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were unchanged in September month-on-month, compared with 0.2% growth in August, according to Reuters calculations based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Compared with a year earlier, China's new home prices grew 3.8% in September, easing from a 4.2% increase in August. China's property market, a key driver of economic growth, staged a robust recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.08% to settled at 1430 while prices up 68.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1560.3 and below same could see a test of 1500.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1653.8, a move above could see prices testing 1687.7.
Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1500.7-1687.7.

* Nickel gains due to production curbs driven by power shortages in Asia and Europe.

* China central bank injects 100 billion yuan via reverse repos

* China's new home prices stall in September; first time since February 2020

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.58% at 247.55 as Chinese authorities took actions to ease an energy crisis that has been behind significant production and supply disruptions. Beijing plans to increase coal output by 12 million tonnes a day, easing an energy crunch that has forced industrial plants such as aluminum smelters to curb production levels. On the other hand, Guangxi officials, a major aluminum producing region, have imposed a 50% premium on electricity charges for the most energy-intensive industries. Upside risks also persist in Europe, where costly electricity charges have forced smelters to curtail output levels. Recent data showed China’s aluminum output fell for the fifth month in a row in September to the lowest monthly level since June of last year, while imports of the metal rose 2.2% on a monthly basis. Global primary aluminium output rose in September to 5.508 million tonnes, up 1.77% year on year, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.183 million tonnes in September, the IAI said. The growth of China's new home prices in September stalled for the first time since February 2020, official data showed, as the property market softened further amid a sustained crackdown on speculation. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.4% to settled at 1735 while prices down -1.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 244.2 and below same could see a test of 240.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 249.6, a move above could see prices testing 251.5.
Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 240.7-251.5.

* Aluminum slipped as Chinese authorities took actions to ease an energy crisis that has been behind significant production and supply disruptions.

* Global aluminium output rises 1.77% y/y to 5.5 mln T in Sept – IAI

* China Sept Alumina output fell 1.4% to 6.55 million tonnes
 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 923.1 on low level buying after prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak and industrial demand is also not picking up. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Major physical market player expects demand to sluggish for next few week as cash crunch seen in spot market, while expectations are high about demand improvement ahead of winter season starts. China is one of the biggest buyer for Indian Mentha, no much buying inquiry from China as mainland China and Hong Kong markets were shut. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Firstly damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -2.5 Rupees to end at 1043 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.68% to settled at 861 while prices up 0.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 920.9 and below same could see a test of 918.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 925.1, a move above could see prices testing 927.1.
Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 918.7-927.1.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.5 Rupees to end at 1043 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak

* Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil

* Availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 5343 as Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year on higher sowing area and likely improvement in productivity, according to industry body SOPA. In its estimate, Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said that the total area under soybean for the year 2021 is 119.984 lakh hectares. The government's area estimate is 123.677 lakh hectares. In last year's Kharif (summer sow) season, total soyabean acreage stood at 118.383 lakh hectare. China's soybean imports from Brazil in September fell 18% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as poor crush margins limited demand. The world's top buyer of soybeans brought in 5.936 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil last month, versus 7.25 million tonnes in the corresponding year-ago period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Crushers stepped up purchases last year from top supplier Brazil as a fast recovering pig herd pushed up demand. But their buying has slowed in recent months, as falling hog prices hit margins. Chinese crushers stepped up purchases of soybeans earlier in the year in anticipation of strong demand from a fast-recovering pig herd. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -36 Rupees to 5438 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.95% to settled at 85545 while prices down -6 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5305 and below same could see a test of 5268 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5389, a move above could see prices testing 5436.
Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5268-5436.

* Soyabean dropped as Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year

* China's soybean imports from Brazil in September fell 18% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as poor crush margins limited demand.

* Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -36 Rupees to 5438 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 2.32% at 1280.9 as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output. India slashed its base import tax on crude palm oil, crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil to zero from 2.5%, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The Govt. has decided to impose stock limits on edible oils and oilseeds up to March 31, 2022. This decision has been taken to soften the prices of edible oils in the country and provide relief to consumers. The Ministry said that the stock limits will be decided by the respective state governments depending on local conditions. It has however decided to give exemption to importers and exporters subject to conditions. Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. India's vegetable oil imports are likely to contract for the second straight year, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1306 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.16% to settled at 29110 while prices up 29 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1261 and below same could see a test of 1242 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1291, a move above could see prices testing 1302.
Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1242-1302.

* Ref soyoil gained as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output

* Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected.

* India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1306 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 2.22% at 1135.7 tracking rise in Malaysian prices as October export data improved amid tight supply worries. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia. The Indian Vegetable Oils Producers Association says it is seeing early signs of demand shifting from palm oil to soft oils after India's duty cut made soft oil more attractive. Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2021 is forecast to decline by 700,000 tonnes to 18.4 million tonnes due to a labour shortage and erratic weather conditions, state agency the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said. Neighbouring Indonesia has not faced such labour issues and has expanded its planted area by about 200,000 hectares this year, MPOC chief executive Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail said. Production in the world's largest palm oil producer is projected to rise by 2.5 million tonnes to 45.5 million tonnes, he said. Indonesian palm oil exports in 2021 will likely be much lower than previously forecast, at 34.423 million tonnes, the vice chairman of the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) told. Exports of crude palm oil in 2021 meanwhile are forecast to fall 54.37% from a year earlier to 3.272 million tonnes. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 11 Rupees to end at 1135 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.52% to settled at 3041 while prices up 24.7 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1120.4 and below same could see a test of 1105 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1144.6, a move above could see prices testing 1153.4.
Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 1105-1153.4.

* Crude palm oil gains tracking rise in Malaysian prices as October export data improved amid tight supply worries.

* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia.

* The Indian Vegetable Oils Producers Association says it is seeing early signs of demand shifting from palm oil to soft oils

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 11 Rupees to end at 1135 Rupees.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 7300 following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Due to favorable weather, production is likely to be higher in 2021-22 (July-June) season. Besides, heavy carryover stocks and slack in bulk demand are keeping prices under pressure. In the first 4 months of FY 2021-22, turmeric exports declined by 26% to 53,000 tonnes as compared to the same period last year, but almost at the same level as the 5-year average. Support is expected on the news that due to June and July floods almost 10% crop washed away so we can see 10-15 % less sowing also farmers had shown interested in other crops as prices where more. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7141.35 Rupees gained 124.7 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.77% to settled at 10275 while prices up 16 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7262 and below same could see a test of 7226 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7332, a move above could see prices testing 7366.
Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7226-7366.

* Turmeric prices remained supported following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.

* However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.

* The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7141.35 Rupees gained 124.7 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 14575 as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. However downside seen limited as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. With the forecast of normal rains in the western region during September to November, the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. Recent estimates state that cumin production has slumped by 60% in Iran’s Razavi Khorasan Province due to severe drought and unusually cold weather coupled with an early spring. Rainfall ranges 63% lower than last year this season so far. Temperatures ranged 3.1-0.4C (37.58-32.72F) lower between October 2020 and April 2021 than in the same period in 2019/2020 according to official statistics. Extensive crop losses seen, the early onset of spring in February also caused serious damage to production. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -45 Rupees to end at 14355 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.33% to settled at 6414 while prices down -20 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14510 and below same could see a test of 14445 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14620, a move above could see prices testing 14665.
Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14445-14665.

* Jeera settled down as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.

* However downside seen limited as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin

* India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -45 Rupees to end at 14355 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.06% at 31240 as Cotton Association of India (CAI), a body of traders, has reduced its estimate of the cotton crop last season (October 2020- September 2021) to 353 lakh bales (each 170 kg) from its previous estimate of 354.5 lakh bales. The final estimate is about 7 lakh bales lower than the 360 lakh bales of crop estimated initially. The total cotton availability for the year is estimated at 488 lakh bales, including an opening stock of 125 lakh bales and import of 10 lakh bales besides the 353 lakh bales of crop. As per the CAI’s cotton balance-sheet for the year, the closing stock is estimated to be 75 lakh bales, which is lower than last year’s estimated 107.5 lakh bales of carryover stock. CAI has increased its cotton consumption estimate for the year by 5 lakh bales to 335 lakh bales from last year’s estimated consumption of 250 lakh bales, showing an increase of 34 per cent over last year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) latest weekly export sales report showed a 41% drop from the previous week in net sales for 2021/2022. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -110 Rupees to end at 29450 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.8% to settled at 1802 while prices up 630 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30540 and below same could see a test of 29850 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31710, a move above could see prices testing 32190.
Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 29850-32190.

* Cotton gained as Cotton trade body trims 2020-21 crop estimate to 353 lakh bales

* CAI has increased its cotton consumption estimate for the year by 5 lakh bales to 335 lakh bales

* USDA latest weekly export sales report showed a 41% drop from the previous week in net sales for 2021/2022.

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -110 Rupees to end at 29450 Rupees.

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