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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 52261 as the prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes boosted U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, denting zero-yielding bullion's appeal. The reason being the market is worried that these very strong expectations for rate hikes in the U.S. may lead to a bigger than expected economic slowdown. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a half-point interest rate increase "will be on the table" when the central bank meets in May and that it would be appropriate to "be moving a little more quickly." Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields extended gains on the Fed's hawkish tone on tightening policy in its effort to tame soaring inflation. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates and higher yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. Physical gold dealers in India reduced discounts as demand picked up slightly after prices eased, while activity in top consumer China was still muted by COVID-induced curbs. In India, dealers offered discounts of $10 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $12 discounts. In China, discounts rose to around $10 per ounce versus global benchmark spot rates from $4.3-$6 last week. In Hong Kong, gold changed hands at $2.5 an ounce discounts to $0.50 premiums. Singapore saw premiums of $1.30-$1.80 per ounce. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.72% to settled at 15913 while prices down -152 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52022 and below same could see a test of 51784 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52580, a move above could see prices testing 52900.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51784-52900.
Gold prices fell amid the prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes boosted U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
The reason being the market is worried that these very strong expectations for rate hikes in the U.S. may lead to a bigger than expected economic slowdown.
Fed’s Powell said a half-point interest rate increase "will be on the table" when the central bank meets in May.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 66546 as rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar on the back of hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell dented bullion's appeal. Powell suggested the possibility of an aggressive tightening of monetary policy to counter high inflation. The Fed chief said that the central bank is prepared to raise rates "a little more quickly" to control inflationary pressures and that a half-point rate hike would be on the table when the Fed meets on May 3 and 4. ECB President Christine Lagarde, however, refrained from adopting a similarly hawkish tone during her speech at the IMF event. Silver demand will climb to a record level this year thanks to increasing use of solar panels as governments boost renewable energy to meet climate goals, setting the stage for years of supply deficits, an industry report said. Global silver demand is expected to rise to 1.1 billion ounces this year, up 5% from 2021, consultants Metals Focus said in an annual report compiled for the Silver Institute. That is the highest since Metals Focus's records began in 2010. This sizzling demand will push the silver market into a deficit of 71.5 million ounces this year after a shortfall of 51.8 million ounces in 2021. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.79% to settled at 6686 while prices down -579 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66014 and below same could see a test of 65482 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67167, a move above could see prices testing 67788.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 65482-67788.
Silver prices edged lower as rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar on the back of hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell dented bullion's appeal.
Fed’s Powell suggested the possibility of an aggressive tightening of monetary policy to counter high inflation.
Silver demand will climb to a record level this year thanks to increasing use of solar panels as governments boost renewable energy to meet climate goals.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 7824 amid fears over falling energy demand, as Shanghai extended the Covid-19 lockdown to April 26. The Fed's increasingly aggressive stance on tightening monetary policy also rattled global markets. U.S. crude exports rose last week to the highest since March 2020, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. U.S. crude output rose to 11.9 million bpd, highest since May 2020, EIA said. U.S. crude stockpiles fell sharply last week due to a surge in exports to a more than a two-year high, while production neared pre-pandemic levels, the Energy Information Administration said. Japan will hold an auction on May 10 to sell 760,000 kilolitres, or 4.8 million barrels, of national reserve oil, the industry ministry said on Friday, as part of a release coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cool rising prices. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had said earlier that Japan would release a record 15 million barrels of oil from its national reserves as part of a second round of the IEA-led coordinated release. Six million barrels of the total will come from privately held reserves and 9 million barrels from state reserves, the industry ministry had said last week. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.06% to settled at 4657 while prices down -41 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7750 and below same could see a test of 7675 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7910, a move above could see prices testing 7995.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7675-7995.
Crude oil dropped amid fears over falling energy demand, as Shanghai extended the Covid-19 lockdown to April 26.
US crude exports rise to highest since March 2020 – EIA
U.S. crude stockpiles slump as export surge to more than 2 – yr high – EIA

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.69% at 509.9 hastened by a larger-than-expected weekly storage build. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed utilities added 53 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a smaller-than-usual 37 bcf build. Meanwhile, the number of U.S. gas rigs increased to 144 this week, matching a firgure last touched in early October 2019, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. However, U.S. gas stockpiles are still currently 16.8% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. HDDs, used to estimate demand for heating of homes and businesses, measure the number of days a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 98.4 bcfd this week to 92.7 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, data from Refinitiv showed average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 was at 94.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 93.7 bcfd in March, and well below December's monthly record of 96.3 bcfd. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.66% to settled at 2714 while prices down -14.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 497.2 and below same could see a test of 484.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 531.9, a move above could see prices testing 554.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 484.6-554.
Natural gas fell hastened by a larger-than-expected weekly storage build.
EIA data showed utilities added 53 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage last week
The number of U.S. gas rigs increased to 144 this week, matching a firgure last touched in early October 2019

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.98% at 808.4 as rising inventories and COVID-19 lockdowns in top metals consumer China weighed on demand prospects for the red metal. China's financial markets are not immune to external shocks and the COVID situation also put more pressure on China's economy, governor of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang said. Shanghai said it would lift its lockdown in batches once virus transmission outside quarantined areas was stamped out. Mainland China reported 18,598 new coronavirus cases on April 21. Copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses rose 2,500 tonnes to 130,500 tonnes, their highest since last October. Stocks of copper on the LME system have now climbed 62% over the last four weeks. Chilean miner Antofagasta's first-quarter copper production fell 24% year-on-year to 138,800 tonnes, hit by continued drought and lower grades, it said. Kazakhstan's January-March refined copper output fell 0.4% year-on-year and production of refined zinc was down 5.4%, while crude steel output rose 3.0%, data from the statistics bureau showed. Peru said a group of indigenous communities had lifted a protest against Southern Copper Corp's Cuajone mine that had forced a suspension of production for more than 50 days. The world's No. 2 producer of copper, Peru had sent its army to restore mine operations, dismissing as "irrational" the financial demands of nearby residents. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 71.2% to settled at 3287 while prices down -16.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 801.7 and below same could see a test of 794.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 820.6, a move above could see prices testing 832.7.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 794.9-832.7.
Copper fell as rising inventories and COVID-19 lockdowns in top metals consumer China weighed on demand prospects for the red metal.
China's financial markets are not immune to external shocks and the COVID situation also put more pressure on China's economy
Copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses rose 2,500 tonnes to 130,500 tonnes, their highest since last October.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 370 as import window for ore remained closed, hence domestic supply for smelters was tight. On the consumption side, the terminal demand was suppressed by high zinc prices, and the transactions were thin. In the spot market, the total inventories of zinc ingot across seven markets stood at 283,600 mt, down 400 mt from Monday. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s zinc output stood at 591,000 mt in March, up 5.7% from a year ago. The output increased as expected as smelters resumed production after maintenance or closures, but the growth was limited as some smelters carried out maintenance or reduced output. The COVID situation in China, especially east China, eased slightly evidenced by falling confirmed cases. The efficiency of transportation picked up fractionally, allowing more spots to circulate in the market. The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI increased to 59.7 in April of 2022 from 58.8 in March, beating market forecasts of 58.2. The reading pointed to the strongest growth in factory activity in seven months, mainly due to faster rises in output, new orders and employment. Despite another marked deterioration in vendor performance, firms were able to increase production amid stronger client demand and the acquisition of new customers, mainly from abroad. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.54% to settled at 1170 while prices down -0.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 367.2 and below same could see a test of 364.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 373.8, a move above could see prices testing 377.5.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 364.3-377.5.
Zinc prices remained supported as import window for ore remained closed, hence domestic supply for smelters was tight.
China’s zinc output stood at 591,000 mt in March, up 5.7% from a year ago.
The COVID situation in China, especially east China, eased slightly evidenced by falling confirmed cases.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.66% at 2555.5 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10% to settled at 22 while prices up 16.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2531 and below same could see a test of 2506.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2580, a move above could see prices testing 2604.5.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2506.5-2604.5.
Nickel gained as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
However upside seen limited amid demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals.
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.65% at 268.35 as domestic aluminium output in April is expected to exceed the level of the same period last year, but the pandemic has continued to disrupt the shipments of aluminium smelters. On the demand side, the downstream producers’ willingness to stock up has picked up as the Labour Day holiday is drawing near. The social inventory of aluminium ingots in China’s eight major markets declined 42,000 mt from last Thursday to 1.02 million mt yesterday, giving certain support to aluminium prices. Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China's imports of alumina in March were 189,088.13 mt, down 6.04% on the month and 29.50% on the year. Australia is the largest supplier, with imports amounting to 178,946.60 mt in March, up 184.04% MoM and 13.65% YoY. China's central bank said that it would step up support to the economy and maintain market stability, amid growing headwinds such as challenges from the Ukraine conflict and supply chain disruptions from domestic COVID curbs. It will support the production and address supply bottlenecks of agricultural products, coal, oil and natural gas to keep overall prices stable, the People's Bank of China said in a statement on its website. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 48.82% to settled at 1759 while prices down -4.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 266.1 and below same could see a test of 263.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 272, a move above could see prices testing 275.7.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 263.9-275.7.
Aluminium dropped as domestic aluminium output in April is expected to exceed the level of the same period last year
But the pandemic has continued to disrupt the shipments of aluminium smelters.
China c.bank says to step up support to economy, maintain market stability

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.9% at 1101 on profit booking after prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -7.3 Rupees to end at 1200 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.37% to settled at 986 while prices down -10 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1095 and below same could see a test of 1089.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1108.9, a move above could see prices testing 1116.9.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1089.1-1116.9.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -7.3 Rupees to end at 1200 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.58% at 8978 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8932.35 Rupees gained 67.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.5% to settled at while prices down -52 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8904 and below same could see a test of 8832 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9094, a move above could see prices testing 9212.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8832-9212.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8932.35 Rupees gained 67.65 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.21% at 22375 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 228.55 Rupees to end at 22100 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.34% to settled at while prices down -275 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22220 and below same could see a test of 22060 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22600, a move above could see prices testing 22820.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 22060-22820.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 228.55 Rupees to end at 22100 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.94% at 44240 on profit booking as the Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. However downside seen limited due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 310 Rupees to end at 45280 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.93% to settled at 2935 while prices down -420 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 43920 and below same could see a test of 43610 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44600, a move above could see prices testing 44970.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 43610-44970.
Cotton dropped on profit booking as the Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 310 Rupees to end at 45280 Rupees.

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