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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 50218 after seen pressure as Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed that the central bank was intent on using its tools to bring down multi-decade high inflation. The benchmark US 10-year yield jumped back toward 3% following the reassurances, while the dollar attempted to rise after a three-session slide. The Fed has raised its benchmark policy rate by an aggregate of 75 basis points this year, and is on track to increase it again in 50-basis point increments at each of the next two meetings in June and July. Latest data showed that the headline CPI in the US held close to a 40-year high at 8.3% in April, while the core CPI also came in above expectations at 6.2%, stoking worries that elevated prices may persist. British consumer price inflation hit an annual rate of 9.0% in April, the highest since official estimates began in the late 1980s, data showed. The Office for National Statistics said consumer price inflation was probably last higher sometime around 1982. Finance minister Rishi Sunak, under pressure to offer more help to households, said countries around the world were being hit by high inflation and the jump in the British data for April reflected last month's increase in regulated energy tariffs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.54% to settled at 5850 while prices up 45 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49932 and below same could see a test of 49646 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50435, a move above could see prices testing 50652.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 49646-50652.
Gold settled flat after seen pressure as Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed that the central bank was intent on using its tools to bring down multi-decade high inflation.
The benchmark US 10-year yield jumped back toward 3% following the reassurances
The Fed has raised its benchmark policy rate by an aggregate of 75 basis points this year, and is on track to increase it again in 50-basis point increments

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 60778 amidst an aggressive tone by the Fed on inflation control. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell had hinted that the Fed would keep tightening till inflation has been tamed. Bond Yields increased across tenors and geographies in response to the developments around inflation and its management, and impacted prices of the non-interest-bearing metal. U.K.'s inflation rising to a 40-year high and the likely aggressive response by the Bank of England also weighed on market sentiment. The Federal Reserve will "keep pushing" to tighten U.S. monetary policy until it is clear that inflation is declining, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. "What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way and we're going to keep pushing until we see that," Powell said. "If we don't see that, we will have to consider moving more aggressively" to tighten financial conditions. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said he supports moving to a shallower rate-hike path by July or September to allow the Fed time to assess inflation and the job market as it pushes borrowing costs up to neutral, and likely beyond. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.26% to settled at 15072 while prices down -378 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60418 and below same could see a test of 60059 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61228, a move above could see prices testing 61679.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 60059-61679.
Silver dropped amidst an aggressive tone by the Fed on inflation control.
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell had hinted that the Fed would keep tightening till inflation has been tamed.
Powell says Fed to 'keep pushing' rates higher until clear inflation is falling

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.85% at 8320 amidst reports that western sanctions caused Russia's crude output to slump in April. US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 3.394 million barrels in the week ended May 13th, after an 8.487-million-barrel addition in the previous week and compared to market expectations of a 1.383 million rise. Also, crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 2.403 million barrels, after a 1.379-million-barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks shrank by 4.779 million barrels, more than forecasts of a 1.333 million barrel drop; and inventories of distillate fuels, which include diesel and heating oil, went up 1.235 million barrels. Hopes of further lockdown easing in China boosted expectations for demand recovery. The country's authorities allowed 864 of Shanghai's financial institutions to resume work, and China has relaxed some COVID test rules for U.S. and other travellers. Russian crude output in April fell by nearly 9% from the previous month, an internal OPEC+ report showed, as Western sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine hit the top oil producer. Russia's oil output stood at 9.16 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, according to data from secondary sources collated by OPEC+, down about 860,000 bpd from March and nearly 1.2 million bpd below its OPEC+ ally Saudi Arabia's output. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.48% to settled at 4393 while prices down -333 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 8168 and below same could see a test of 8015 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8601, a move above could see prices testing 8881.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 8015-8881.
Crude oil dropped amidst reports that western sanctions caused Russia's crude output to slump in April.
US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 3.394 million barrels, after an 8.487-million-barrel addition in the previous week
Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 2.403 million barrels, after a 1.379-million-barrel increase.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.61% at 650.5 on a drop in daily output over the past few days and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected. Power demand in Texas hit a monthly record high on Tuesday and was on track to break that on Wednesday as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up to escape a spring heatwave. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states climbed to 94.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in November 2021. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop 1.6 bcfd over the past three days to a three-week preliminary low of 93.7 bcfd. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold near 89.7 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants held at 12.2 bcfd so far in May, the same as April. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.82% to settled at 4369 while prices up 10.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 634.6 and below same could see a test of 618.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 664.7, a move above could see prices testing 679.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 618.8-679.
Natural gas rose on a drop in daily output over the past few days and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected.
Power demand in Texas hit a monthly record high as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up to escape a spring heatwave.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states climbed to 94.8 bcfd so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.21% at 756.35 as bets over big U.S. rate hikes following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a recent batch of weak economic readings from top metals consumer China added to growth worries. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pledged that the U.S. central bank would ratchet interest rates as high as needed to kill a surge in inflation that he said threatened the foundation of the economy. China's new home prices in April fell for the first time month-on-month since December, official data showed, hit by strict COVID-19 lockdowns in many cities. Data showed China's economic activity cooled sharply in April as widening lockdowns took a heavy toll on consumption, industrial production and employment. U.S. retail sales increased 0.9% in April, while industrial production accelerated 1.1% last month amid continued strong demand for motor vehicles and other goods. China's refined copper output fell 1% in April to 898,000 tonnes from the same month a year earlier, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Peru, the world's second-largest copper producer, risks losing out on billions of dollars of mining investment if the government fails to defuse protests that are hitting the industry and denting production. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.11% to settled at 3614 while prices down -9.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 752.6 and below same could see a test of 748.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 763.1, a move above could see prices testing 769.8.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 748.8-769.8.
Copper prices slipped as bets over big U.S. rate hikes following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials
Pressure also seen after recent batch of weak economic readings from top metals consumer China added to growth worries.
China's refined copper output fell 1% in April to 898,000 tonnes from the same month a year earlier.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.66% at 310.45 as US Fed Chair Powell indicated firm interest rate hike in the future until the inflation is contained. However, as sulphuric acid prices rose recently, the smelting cost was lowered, offering less support to zinc prices. Market sentiment improved after the estimated removal of lockdown in Shanghai. Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME zinc inventory is still in a downward channel, and the decline in inventory has slowed down in recent days. The latest inventory was 86,125 mt as of May 17, the lowest in over two years. SHFE zinc stocks dropped by 3.22% on a weekly basis to 167,066 mt in the week of May 13, a two-and-a-half-month low. China's economic activity cooled sharply in April as widening COVID-19 lockdowns took a heavy toll on consumption, industrial production and employment, adding to fears the economy could shrink in the second quarter. Full or partial lockdowns were imposed in dozens of cities in March and April, including a protracted shutdown in commercial centre Shanghai, keeping workers and shoppers confined to their homes and severely disrupting supply chains. Retail sales in April shrank 11.1% from a year earlier, the biggest contraction since March 2020, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.53% to settled at 1133 while prices down -5.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 307.1 and below same could see a test of 303.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 315, a move above could see prices testing 319.4.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 303.6-319.4.
Zinc dropped as US Fed Chair Powell indicated firm interest rate hike in the future until the inflation is contained.
Data showed that LME zinc inventory is still in a downward channel, and the decline in inventory has slowed down in recent days.
SHFE zinc stocks dropped by 3.22% on a weekly basis to 167,066 mt in the week of May 13, a two-and-a-half-month low.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 238.25 as recent data from China exacerbate such a gloomy outlook, with the world's second-largest economy reporting that industrial output unexpectedly contracted in April. On top of that, soaring aluminum prices and disrupted exports from Russia helped Chinese smelters scale production to record levels. Once activity picked up, excess inventory would hit the global markets and pose a significant downside to prices. China's aluminium production rose 0.3% to 3.36 million tonnes in April from a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. For the first four months of the year, China produced 13.01 million tonnes, a drop of 0.2% from the same period last year, the data showed. China's central bank rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans while keeping the interest rate unchanged for a fourth straight month on Monday, matching market expectations. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it was keeping the rate on 100 billion yuan ($14.7 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.85%, offseting the same amount of such loans due on the same day. Despite the steady MLF rate, markets still expect some monetary easing and stimulus measures to arrest a slowing domestic economy, which has been hurt by COVID-19 lockdowns. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.24% to settled at 2617 while prices down -2.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 236 and below same could see a test of 233.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 242.5, a move above could see prices testing 246.6.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 233.6-246.6.
Aluminium dropped as recent data from China exacerbate such a gloomy outlook, with the economy reporting that industrial output unexpectedly contracted
China central bank keeps medium – term policy rate unchanged, market expects LPR reduction
China April aluminium output up 0.3% y/y at 3.36 mln tonnes – stats bureau

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 1100.6 as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.3 Rupees to end at 1208.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.97% to settled at 784 while prices up 1.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1091.8 and below same could see a test of 1083 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1108.7, a move above could see prices testing 1116.8.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1083-1116.8.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.3 Rupees to end at 1208.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices seen supported as the harvest is expected to be delayed.
Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser.
The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.17% at 8120 as the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. However, the arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8367.8 Rupees dropped -29.3 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.53% to settled at while prices down -96 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8066 and below same could see a test of 8010 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8214, a move above could see prices testing 8306.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8010-8306.
Turmeric dropped as pressure seen as the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8367.8 Rupees dropped -29.3 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 22025 on profit booking as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The low yield in India will affect the global prices as the country is the largest producer of jeera or cumin in the world. Total cumin output is estimated to have declined about 35% year-on-year to 558 million tonnes in 2022. The main reason for the low yield and low acreage under cultivation is that during the cumin sowing period (October-December 2021) farmers shifted to gram and mustard whose prices were higher than that of cumin. Secondly, excess rainfall in the key cumin belts of Dwarka, Banaskantha and Kutch in Gujarat, and Jodhpur and Nagaur in Rajasthan increased the probability of wilt attack, preventing farmers from sowing the crop. Unjha mandi in Gujarat, which accounts for ~40% of India’s cumin arrivals, witnessed a 60% on-year decline in arrivals in March 2022. While arrivals for April (1st – 23rd) show ~38% increase on-year, it is on a low base of last year where there were no arrivals in the second half of April amid the pandemic. Fall in exports will put pressure on global price as well. Short supply from India, higher prices in Turkey and estimated lower production in Syria will support the bullish trend. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.85 Rupees to end at 21942.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.98% to settled at while prices down -195 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21875 and below same could see a test of 21725 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22220, a move above could see prices testing 22415.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21725-22415.
Jeera dropped on profit booking as new crop arrivals coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The low yield in India will affect the global prices as the country is the largest producer of jeera or cumin in the world.
Total cumin output is estimated to have declined about 35% year-on-year to 558 million tonnes in 2022.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.85 Rupees to end at 21942.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 49070 on profit booking after Union minister Piyush Goyal appealed to traders to divert only excess cotton and yarn for exports. Prices crossed 50000 mark on speculation that the scorching heat wave in North and central India may dent cotton production for the next marketing season beginning October 1. Lower production and global price rise pushed up domestic cotton prices above to ₹100,000 per candy of 356 kg last week. This is likely to attract farmers to grow cotton, which may lead to an increase of about 15-20 per cent in cotton acreage, according to preliminary estimates. Domestic textile industries are suffering because of unproportionate increase in domestic cotton prices as compared to the other markets because lower crop estimates. The Indian textile industry has lost its competitive advantage in global market as domestic cotton prices have registered highest increase in last one year, making Indian cotton more expensive. Global production is lowered by 1.8mln bales from last month, largely due to a drop of 1.0mln bales from India. Global use is down 1.1mln bales, and ending stocks are up 271,000 bales. Global trade is down slightly with a drop of 500,000 bales in India exports. Additionally, imports are lower for China, Pakistan, and Vietnam. U.S. production is slightly lowered to 17.5mln bales, exports are unchanged at 14.8mln, and ending stocks are lowered to 3.4mln bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 80 Rupees to end at 50360 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.84% to settled at 2161 while prices down -280 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 48590 and below same could see a test of 48100 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49700, a move above could see prices testing 50320.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 48100-50320.
Cotton dropped on profit booking after Union minister Piyush Goyal appealed to traders to divert only excess cotton and yarn for exports.
Lower production and global price rise pushed up domestic cotton prices above to ₹100,000 per candy of 356 kg last week.
Global production is lowered by 1.8mln bales from last month, largely due to a drop of 1.0mln bales from India.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 80 Rupees to end at 50360 Rupees.

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