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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 52413 as the U.S. Treasury yields resumed their climb while gains in equities also tempered the safe-haven metal's appeal. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged higher towards a more than three-year peak scaled on Wednesday. U.S. bond yields have marched higher lately on expectations that the Federal Reserve will aggressively hike interest rates as inflation accelerates at its fastest rate in 40 years. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell moderately last week, still suggesting that April was another month of strong job growth. The report from the Labor Department also showed unemployment rolls shrinking to the lowest level in 52 years in the first week of April, reinforcing the tightening labor market conditions. An acute shortage of workers is keeping layoffs low, helping to fuel inflation, and forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt a restrictive monetary policy stance. With even the most dovish U.S. central bankers now calling for a key interest rate to hit its "neutral" level by year's end to tame high inflation, the Federal Reserve appears headed for perhaps its swiftest shift in monetary policy since the 1960s, with all the risks that ride along with such an abrupt change. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.02% to settled at 16528 while prices down -215 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52155 and below same could see a test of 51897 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52660, a move above could see prices testing 52907.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51897-52907.
Gold prices declined as the U.S. Treasury yields resumed their climb while gains in equities also tempered the safe-haven metal's appeal.
Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged higher towards a more than three-year peak scaled on Wednesday.
U.S. bond yields have marched higher lately on expectations that the Federal Reserve will aggressively hike interest rates as inflation accelerates at its fastest rate in 40 years.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.87% at 67125 as bond yields resumed their rise amid expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. 10-year bond yields rose across Europe after European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos supported a rate hike as early as July. Guindos said that there is no reason for not winding down the asset purchase program in July. Eurozone inflation accelerated sharply, but less than initially estimated, to set a record high in March underpinned by surging energy prices, final data from Eurostat showed. Silver demand will climb to a record level this year thanks to increasing use of solar panels as governments boost renewable energy to meet climate goals, setting the stage for years of supply deficits, an industry report said. Global silver demand is expected to rise to 1.1 billion ounces this year, up 5% from 2021, consultants Metals Focus said in an annual report compiled for the Silver Institute. Consumer price annual inflation jumped to 7.4 percent from 5.9 percent in February. Although the rate was revised down slightly from the flash estimate of 7.5 percent, it was the strongest on record. The current inflation figure is more than triple the European Central Bank target of 2.0 percent. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.49% to settled at 6739 while prices down -1281 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66563 and below same could see a test of 66002 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67996, a move above could see prices testing 68868.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 66002-68868.
Silver dropped as bond yields resumed their rise amid expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.
Silver demand to reach its highest on record in 2022, Silver Institute says
Global silver demand is expected to rise to 1.1 billion ounces this year, up 5% from 2021

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 7865 amid concerns about supply as the European Union (EU) mulls a potential ban on Russian oil imports days after diminished supplies from Libya rocked the market. Libya, a member of OPEC, said the country was losing more than 550,000 barrels per day of oil output due to blockades at major fields and export terminals. The oil market remains tight with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together called OPEC+, struggling to meet their production targets and with U.S. crude stockpiles down sharply in the week ended April 15. The demand outlook in China continues to weigh on the market, as the world's biggest oil importer slowly eases strict COVID-19 curbs that have hit manufacturing activity and global supply chains. U.S. crude exports rose last week to the highest since March 2020, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Crude exports rose to 4.3 million barrels per day, EIA data showed. Meanwhile, U.S. crude output rose to 11.9 million bpd, highest since May 2020, EIA said. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 8 million barrels in the week ended April 15 to 413.7 million barrels. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.27% to settled at 4119 while prices up 8 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7766 and below same could see a test of 7666 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8007, a move above could see prices testing 8148.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7666-8148.
Crude oil rose as investors focus on lower supply from Russia, Libya
Libya said the country was losing more than 550,000 barrels per day of oil output due to blockades at major fields and export terminals.
OPEC+ struggling to meet their production targets and with U.S. crude stockpiles down sharply in the week ended April 15.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.47% at 524 after a federal report showed a much bigger-than-expected storage build last week. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed utilities added 53 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage last week, compared with analysts' expectations of a smaller-than-usual 37 bcf build. Data from Refinitiv showed average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was at 94.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March, down from December's monthly record of 96.3 bcfd. On a daily basis output was on track to drop about 0.4 bcfd to 93.2 bcfd on Thursday, according to preliminary Refinitiv data. Preliminary data is often revised. Refinitiv estimated there would be 120 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, almost in-line with the 30-year norm of 119 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of days a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.48% to settled at 3038 while prices down -7.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 508.4 and below same could see a test of 492.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 542, a move above could see prices testing 560.1.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 492.9-560.1.
Natural gas prices dropped after a federal report showed a much bigger-than-expected storage build last week.
Data from the U.S. EIA showed utilities added 53 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage last week
Natural gas output in China is soaring after Beijing pressured state-owned producers to ramp up production

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.47% at 819.85 bolstered by hopes of more stimulus in key metals consumer China to support its pandemic-hit economy and lingering concerns about supply from top producers Peru and Chile. BHP Group Ltd cut its annual copper production outlook as operations at its Escondida project in Chile took a hit from protests by workers and environmental activists, as well as labour shortages due to rising COVID-19 cases. China's central bank urged financial institutions to step up support for the contact-intensive service sector and small firms affected by the pandemic, it said. China's refined copper production in March 2022 rose 7.2% year-on-year to 940,000 tonnes, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. On a daily basis, average copper output stood at 30,161 tonnes over the March period, according to calculations based on the official data. Peru will declare a state of emergency near Southern Copper Corp's Cuajone mine, the country's prime minister said on Wednesday, as protests hit top mines in the Andean nation, halting 20% of national copper output. Peru is the world's No. 2 producer of the red metal. Impoverished communities in Peru's copper-rich Andes have been staging growing protests against mining companies including Cuajone, MMG Ltd's Las Bambas and Glencore's Antapaccay. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.72% to settled at 2274 while prices up 3.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 813 and below same could see a test of 806 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 824.3, a move above could see prices testing 828.6.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 806-828.6.
Copper prices rebounded bolstered by hopes of more stimulus in China to support its pandemic-hit economy and lingering concerns about supply
China's central bank urged financial institutions to step up support for the contact-intensive service sector and small firms affected by the pandemic
China's refined copper production in March 2022 rose 7.2% year-on-year to 940,000 tonnes

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 373.35 as domestic ore supply was relatively tight, and zinc ore and concentrate imports in March dropped 29.25% YoY. Refined zinc imports dropped 53.63% YoY in March, while the exports stood at 13,766 mt, up 25.9% MoM. On the supply side, SHFE/LME price ratio dropped to 6.33, and import losses remained high of over 5,000 yuan/mt. On the consumption side, 70% zinc ingot was consumed by the galvanising sector, which is concentrated in the northern region including Hebei. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s zinc output stood at 591,000 mt in March, up 5.7% from a year ago. The output increased as expected as smelters resumed production after maintenance or closures, but the growth was limited as some smelters carried out maintenance or reduced output. China's April LPR quotes was released: that for 1-year and 5-year remains unchanged; a symposium aiming at raising financial support for the real economy was held to increase financial support for pandemic prevention and control as well as economic and social development; Ministry of Finance: first quarter national general public budget revenue up 8.6% year-on-year, with stamp duty up 20.6%. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -17.66% to settled at 1138 while prices up 1.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 367.7 and below same could see a test of 362 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 377.4, a move above could see prices testing 381.4.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 362-381.4.
Zinc rose as domestic ore supply was relatively tight, and zinc ore and concentrate imports in March dropped 29.25% YoY.
China’s zinc output stood at 591,000 mt in March, up 5.7% from a year ago.
Refined zinc imports dropped 53.63% YoY in March, while the exports stood at 13,766 mt, up 25.9% MoM.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 2517.3 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.38% to settled at 116 while prices up 0.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2500.8 and below same could see a test of 2484.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2539.8, a move above could see prices testing 2562.4.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2484.4-2562.4.
Nickel gained Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
However upside seen limited amid demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals.
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.82% at 271.5 as Global primary aluminium output in March fell 1.55% year on year to 5.693 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.29 million tonnes in March, the IAI said. The latest data showed China’s primary aluminum imports fell by 55.1% from a year earlier in March and by 71% in Q1. At the same time, Chinese aluminum production rose 1.8% to 3.3 million tons in the 12 months to March, the highest since last May. On top of that, China ramped up aluminum exports, rising 26.7% on an annual basis to 1.6 million tonnes in Q1, as the world scrambles to replace Russia's roughly 6% global market share. Meantime, a fall in Japanese physical premiums for April-June shipments is the latest sign of weak demand in the world's four-biggest economy. China's April LPR quotes was released: that for 1-year and 5-year remains unchanged; a symposium aiming at raising financial support for the real economy was held to increase financial support for pandemic prevention and control as well as economic and social development; Ministry of Finance: first quarter national general public budget revenue up 8.6% year-on-year, with stamp duty up 20.6%. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.79% to settled at 1956 while prices up 2.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 268.9 and below same could see a test of 266.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 273.3, a move above could see prices testing 275.1.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 266.3-275.1.
Aluminium gained as global aluminium output falls 1.55% in March year on year
The latest data showed China’s primary aluminum imports fell by 55.1% from a year earlier in March and by 71% in Q1.
China ramped up aluminum exports, rising 26.7% on an annual basis to 1.6 million tonnes in Q1

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 1082.2 on profit booking after prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -7.3 Rupees to end at 1200 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -28.91% to settled at 359 while prices down -1.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1071.2 and below same could see a test of 1060.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1094.2, a move above could see prices testing 1106.1.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1060.1-1106.1.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -7.3 Rupees to end at 1200 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.33% at 9030 as the arrival of new season itself is decreasing in the market and exports are expected to survive as the season progresses. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8932.35 Rupees gained 67.65 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.09% to settled at while prices up 206 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8900 and below same could see a test of 8772 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9138, a move above could see prices testing 9248.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8772-9248.
Turmeric gained as the arrival of new season itself is decreasing in the market and exports are expected to survive as the season progresses.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8932.35 Rupees gained 67.65 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.6% at 22650 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. New crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 228.55 Rupees to end at 22100 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.3% to settled at while prices up 575 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22270 and below same could see a test of 21890 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22865, a move above could see prices testing 23080.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21890-23080.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 228.55 Rupees to end at 22100 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 44540 on profit booking as the Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. However downside seen limited due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 310 Rupees to end at 45280 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.66% to settled at 2697 while prices down -130 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 44210 and below same could see a test of 43880 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44820, a move above could see prices testing 45100.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 43880-45100.
Cotton dropped on profit booking as the Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 310 Rupees to end at 45280 Rupees.

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