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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.66% at 51393 as the prospect of faster Federal Reserve policy tightening continued to support the dollar and US Treasury yields, while denting demand for bullion. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 50 bps at the May meeting, followed by even bigger hikes in subsequent months in order to tame soaring inflation. The downside remained capped somewhat as a spike in Covid cases in China's capital city of Beijing sparked worries about the implementation of more stringent restrictions to contain the outbreak. The business district of Chaoyang started three days of mass testing of those working and living in the area. Cases continue to grow in Shanghai, where authorities have erected fences outside residential buildings designated as "sealed areas." China registered about 22,000 new COVID-19 infections on Sunday, with many cities and provinces under some version of a lockdown. Physical gold dealers in India reduced discounts as demand picked up slightly after prices eased, while activity in top consumer China was still muted by COVID-induced curbs. In India, dealers offered discounts of $10 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $12 discounts. In China, discounts rose to around $10 per ounce versus global benchmark spot rates from $4.3-$6 last week. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.53% to settled at 14715 while prices down -868 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51091 and below same could see a test of 50788 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51906, a move above could see prices testing 52418.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50788-52418.
Gold dropped as a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields dented the precious metal's appeal.
Fed's Mester: I would support a 50 bps rise in May and a few more after.
Investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 50 bps at the May meeting, followed by even bigger hikes in subsequent months

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -2.15% at 65116 extending losses from the previous week, amid strong dollar and soaring Treasury yields. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a 50-basis point rate increase was “on the table” for May and reiterated that Fed officials were committed to “front-end loading” inflation-fighting efforts. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the risk of stagflation. British retail sales volumes tumbled 1.4% from a month earlier in March, much worse than market expectations of a 0.3% decrease. Also, PMI data signaled a marked cooling in the pace of UK economic growth during April with service providers experiencing a considerable loss of momentum and manufacturers facing a headwind to order books from rising output charges. Construction output in the Euro Area rose 9.4 percent year-on-year in February of 2022, accelerating from an upwardly revised 4.4 percent increase in the previous month. It was the strongest pace of growth in construction activity since May 2021. The BoJ is widely expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at a record low of -0.1%, although the focus of the meeting should be on how the BoJ will approach the yen weakness and 10-year JGB yields rising above target. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.74% to settled at 5834 while prices down -1430 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64476 and below same could see a test of 63837 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65897, a move above could see prices testing 66679.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 63837-66679.
Silver dropped extending losses from the previous week, amid strong dollar and soaring Treasury yields.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a 50-basis point rate increase was “on the table” for May
Investors remained cautious of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the risk of stagflation.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.79% at 7449 as concern grew that prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns in Shanghai and potential increases to U.S. interest rates would hurt global growth and oil demand. In Shanghai, authorities have erected fences outside residential buildings, sparking fresh public outcry. In Beijing many have begun stockpiling food, fearing a similar lockdown after the emergence of a few cases. Oil gained support from tight supply. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already reduced supply because of Western sanctions and customers avoiding buying Russian oil, but the market could tighten further with a potential EU ban on Russian crude. The OPEC member is losing more than 550,000 barrels per day in production because of unrest, with the Zawiya oil refinery suffering damage after armed clashes. U.S. crude exports rose last week to the highest since March 2020, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Crude exports rose to 4.3 million barrels per day, EIA data showed. Meanwhile, U.S. crude output rose to 11.9 million bpd, highest since May 2020, EIA said. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 8 million barrels in the week ended April 15 to 413.7 million barrels, compared with expectations. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.07% to settled at 3769 while prices down -375 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7282 and below same could see a test of 7115 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7669, a move above could see prices testing 7889.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7115-7889.
Crude oil slumped as concern grew that prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns in Shanghai
Libya's NOC says Zawiya oil refinery damaged after armed clashes
The OPEC member is losing more than 550,000 barrels per day in production because of unrest
 

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 509.4 hastened by a larger-than-expected weekly storage build. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed utilities added 53 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a smaller-than-usual 37 bcf build. Meanwhile, the number of U.S. gas rigs increased to 144 this week, matching a firgure last touched in early October 2019, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. However, U.S. gas stockpiles are still currently 16.8% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. HDDs, used to estimate demand for heating of homes and businesses, measure the number of days a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 98.4 bcfd this week to 92.7 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, data from Refinitiv showed average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 was at 94.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 93.7 bcfd in March, and well below December's monthly record of 96.3 bcfd. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -53.43% to settled at 1264 while prices down -0.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 493.7 and below same could see a test of 478 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 519.7, a move above could see prices testing 530.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 478-530.
Natural gas fell hastened by a larger-than-expected weekly storage build.
EIA data showed utilities added 53 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage last week
The number of U.S. gas rigs increased to 144 this week, matching a firgure last touched in early October 2019
 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -2.29% at 789.85 as prospects of bigger U.S. rate hikes and continued lockdowns in top consumer China cemented fears of a slowdown in global economic growth and demand. Shanghai authorities battling an outbreak of COVID-19 have erected fences outside residential buildings, sparking fresh public outcry over a lockdown that has forced much of the city's 25 million people indoors. The dollar firmed near a more than two-year high, supported by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments that more or less backed a half-percentage point tightening at next month's policy meeting. Peru said a group of indigenous communities had lifted a protest against Southern Copper Corp's Cuajone copper mine that had forced a suspension of production for more than 50 days. The global world refined copper market showed a 16,000 tonne surplus in January, compared with a 74,000 tonnes deficit in December, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. In 2021 the market was in a deficit of 439,000 tonnes, against a 415,000 tonne shortfall a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in January was 2.149 million tonnes while consumption was 2.133 million tonnes. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.42% to settled at 3794 while prices down -18.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 781.1 and below same could see a test of 772.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 802.2, a move above could see prices testing 814.5.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 772.3-814.5.
Copper fell as prospects of bigger U.S. rate hikes and continued lockdowns in China cemented fears of a slowdown in global economic growth and demand.
Copper market in 16,000 tonne surplus in Jan 2022 – ICSG
Peru said a group of indigenous communities had lifted a protest against Southern Copper Corp's Cuajone copper mine that had forced a suspension of production

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -3.72% at 356.25 as lockdowns in more than a dozen cities across China, including the financial hub of Shanghai, have heightened worries over wider disruption to activity in the world’s second-largest economy. The global zinc market moved to a surplus of 14,300 tonnes in February from a revised deficit of 17,500 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 15,000 tonnes in January. During the first two months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 3,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 92,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc is produced and consumed each year. China's central bank said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for foreign currency deposits at banks to 8% from 9%, taking effect on May 15. The Confederation of British Industry's order book balance fell to 14 in April of 2022, the lowest in six months, from 26 in the previous month and below market expectations of 21. Manufacturing orders and output continue to grow, albeit at slower rates. But the war in Ukraine is exacerbating the Covid-related supply crunch, with cost increases and concerns over the availability of raw materials at their highest since the mid-1970s. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.21% to settled at 1109 while prices down -13.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 347.2 and below same could see a test of 338.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 366.8, a move above could see prices testing 377.3.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 338.1-377.3.
 Zinc prices crashed as lockdowns in more than a dozen cities across China, have heightened worries over wider disruption to activity in the economy.
Global zinc market swings to surplus of 14,300 T in February – ILZSG
China cbank to cut banks' FX reserve requirements from May 15

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.57% at 2489.7 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 68.18% to settled at 37 while prices down -65.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2486.4 and below same could see a test of 2483.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2491.4, a move above could see prices testing 2493.2.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2483.2-2493.2.
Nickel dropped as amid demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals.
Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -4.25% at 256.95 amid worries that slowing global growth will hit metals demand as China struggles with Covid-19 and the Federal Reserve is set to sharply raise interest rates. The latest data showed China’s primary aluminum imports fell by 55.1% from a year earlier in March and by 71% in Q1, while Chinese aluminum production rose 1.8% to 3.3 million tons in the 12 months to March, the highest since last May. On top of that, China ramped up aluminum exports, rising 26.7% on an annual basis to 1.6 million tonnes in Q1, as the world scrambles to replace Russia's roughly 6% global market share. With the acceleration of domestic resumption of production resumption and the pandemic in the downstream, the inventory decline of domestic aluminium ingot was slow. SHFE aluminium plummeted by more than 4% in the afternoon amid the acceleration of resumed production and insufficient consumption expectation, and the transaction prices dropped to less than 21,000 yuan/mt. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 1.02 million mt as of April 25, down 5,000 mt from a week ago. The transportation restrictions in Wuxi have eased, and buyers were allowed to pick up goods, except for those from high risks areas of COVID, allowing the local inventory to fall by 6,000 mt. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 40.08% to settled at 2464 while prices down -11.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 252.8 and below same could see a test of 248.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 263.7, a move above could see prices testing 270.3.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 248.5-270.3.
Aluminum dropped amid worries that slowing global growth will hit metals demand as China struggles with Covid-19.
China’s primary aluminum imports fell by 55.1% from a year earlier in March and by 71% in Q1
The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 1.02 million mt as of April 25, down 5,000 mt from a week ago.
 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -2.17% at 1077.1 on profit booking after prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -10.7 Rupees to end at 1188.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.26% to settled at 1097 while prices down -23.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1066.8 and below same could see a test of 1056.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1094.8, a move above could see prices testing 1112.4.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1056.4-1112.4.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -10.7 Rupees to end at 1188.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.67% at 8828 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8846.9 Rupees dropped -85.45 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.08% to settled at while prices down -150 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8724 and below same could see a test of 8622 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9008, a move above could see prices testing 9190.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8622-9190.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8846.9 Rupees dropped -85.45 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 22445 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. New crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 246.1 Rupees to end at 22366.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.74% to settled at while prices up 70 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22305 and below same could see a test of 22160 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22640, a move above could see prices testing 22830.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 22160-22830.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 246.1 Rupees to end at 22366.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.42% at 43610 on profit booking as the Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. However downside seen limited due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -220 Rupees to end at 44960 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 23.2% to settled at 3616 while prices down -630 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 43400 and below same could see a test of 43190 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 43910, a move above could see prices testing 44210.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 43190-44210.
Cotton dropped on profit booking as the Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -220 Rupees to end at 44960 Rupees.

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