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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 51767 as investors looked to shield against soaring inflation and uncertainty caused by events in Ukraine, with elevated U.S. bonds yields capping gains in non-interest bearing metal. Gold prices advanced to near record highs earlier this month, but then saw a steady decline heading into a key U.S. central bank policy meeting last week. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, hit their highest since March 2021 this week. Gold is getting support from debt markets, with government bond futures in Europe recovering losses suffered over recent sessions. India imported 651.24 tonnes of gold in financial year 2020-21 as compared to 719.94 tonnes in the year-ago period, the government said. In a written reply to the Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Anupriya Patel said the imports stood at 982.71 tonnes in FY 2018-19. Meanwhile, yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury hit their highest in nearly three years, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion. The Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points last week for the first time since 2018 as it attempts to combat rising prices while trying to avoid a policy error which could send the U.S. economy into recession. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.5% to settled at 6819 while prices up 388 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51394 and below same could see a test of 51021 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51970, a move above could see prices testing 52173.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51021-52173.
Gold rises as Ukraine, inflation concerns lift appeal
SPDR Gold ETF holdings at over 1-year highs
Good physical demand also supporting gold market


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 68264 as geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the Ukraine conflict continued to drive demand for the safe-haven amid speculations that the West plans to announce more sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. Goldman Sachs has pegged the U.S. central bank to hike interest rates in its May and June meetings by 50 basis points each, followed by four 25 basis point hikes into the end of the year. Concerns about the geopolitical tensions offered some support for the previous metal, with U.S. President Joe Biden expected to impose further sanctions on Russia during his trip to Europe this week. Biden will meet with other NATO allies in Brussels on Thursday to project a roadmap for a diplomatic solution to the ongoing slaughter of Ukraine by Russia. Apart from that, the summit of European Union (EU) leaders will also be attended by Biden to discuss the embargo on Russian oil by EU members. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for the central bank to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate to 3% this year and move aggressively to keep inflation under control. This followed hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday who hinted at bigger rate hikes than the traditional quarter-point increases. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.04% to settled at 6058 while prices up 572 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67674 and below same could see a test of 67084 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68635, a move above could see prices testing 69006.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 67084-69006.
Silver rose as geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the Ukraine conflict continued to drive demand for the safe-haven
Concerns about the geopolitical tensions offered some support for the previous metal, with U.S. President Biden expected to impose further sanctions on Russia
Fed’s Bullard called for the central bank to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate to 3% this year


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.83% at 8731 supported by disruption to Russian and Kazakh crude exports via the CPC pipeline. The market remains on edge over the prospect of further sanctions on Russia, the world's second-largest crude exporter, after its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation." U.S. President Joe Biden is set to announce more Russian sanctions when he meets with European leaders on Thursday in Brussels, including an emergency meeting of NATO. Russia warned of a drop in oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) of up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd), or 1% of global oil production, because of storm-damaged berths. CPC exports stopped fully and repairs will take at least one and a half months, according to a port ship agent. Plunging crude stockpiles in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, added to the apprehension around supply. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week to March 18 to 413.4 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 114,000-barrel rise. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 1.2 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.35% to settled at 8873 while prices up 322 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 8427 and below same could see a test of 8122 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8938, a move above could see prices testing 9144.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 8122-9144.
Crude oil rose supported by disruption to Russian and Kazakh crude exports via the CPC pipeline.
Caspian Pipeline Consortium CPC exports stopped fully and repairs will take at least one and a half months, according to a port ship agent.
U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.17% at 397.2 on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price increase also came as global demand for gas to replace Russian fuel after the country's invasion of Ukraine keeps U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs and European gas prices about seven times over U.S. futures. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.2 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 96.4 bcfd this week to 102.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Even though it will be cooler next week, meteorologists forecast U.S. weather will remain at near normal levels through at least early April, which should keep heating demand low enough to allow utilities to inject gas into storage this week – about a week earlier than usual. In two weeks, however, supply and demand forecasts were about even and utilities will likely leave stockpiles little changed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.65% to settled at 4504 while prices up 4.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 388.6 and below same could see a test of 379.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 406.6, a move above could see prices testing 415.9.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 379.9-415.9.
Natural gas climbed on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Meteorologists forecast weather in the United States would remain milder than normal through at least early April
EIA said utilities pulled 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 11.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.38% at 825.95 as risks of supply shortages amid the heightened Russia-Ukraine war lent support to prices. The global world refined copper market showed a 92,000 tonnes deficit in December, compared with a 123,000 tonnes deficit in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the 12 months of the year, the market saw a shortage of 475,000 tonnes compared with a 484,000 tonne shortfall a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in December was 2.110 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.202 million tonnes. The global market is already tight, with exchange stocks near 16-year lows, and a ban on Russian metal could lead to further supply disruptions. On the flip side, the rising global production should ease worries about the market deficit. The ICSG said mine production grew by around 2.3% in 2021, driven by higher output from Peru, the world’s second-largest copper-producing country, and Indonesia. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumption side gradually materialised, and downstream interest in purchasing weakened further on still strict pandemic prevention and control that hindered logistics and warehousing. In addition, significant import losses have resulted in even less supplies in China, on the combination of low inventory compared with the same period last year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.66% to settled at 2194 while prices up 11.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 816.2 and below same could see a test of 806.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 831.2, a move above could see prices testing 836.5.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 806.5-836.5.
Copper prices rose as risks of supply shortages amid the heightened Russia-Ukraine war lent support to prices.
The global market is already tight, with exchange stocks near 16-year lows, and a ban on Russian metal could lead to further supply disruptions.
Copper market in 92,000 tonne deficit in Dec 2021


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 6.3% at 346 as market supply has been tight as a whole in light of still strict transport restrictions. On the fundamentals, the import window was still closed, and ore supply remained tight. On the consumption side, the terminal demand was far less than expected, and downstream participants were generally bearish on zinc prices. In the spot market, though the transport restrictions in Shenzhen were lifted, most truck divers were unwilling to resume work, hence transport efficiency stood low. On the whole, the consumption side remains as the key contradiction in the market, and the market shall keep an eye on this issue. Shfe zinc inventory continued to rise and increased by 1.58% to 176,507 mt in the week of March 18, setting a new high in nearly five years. LME zinc inventory entered a downward channel again after rising to a two-and-a-half-month high of 209,175 mt on December 14 last year. LME zinc inventory fell to a new low in nearly 20 months at 140,525 mt on March 14 before climbing to 144,425 mt the next day, but dropped again and stood at 142,975 mt as of now. China imported 2,474 mt of refined zinc from Australia, the largest supplier, down 60.61% month-on-month and 71.02% year-on-year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.01% to settled at 623 while prices up 20.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 332.3 and below same could see a test of 318.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 353.7, a move above could see prices testing 361.5.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 318.7-361.5.
Zinc prices rose as market supply has been tight as a whole in light of still strict transport restrictions.
LME zinc inventory entered a downward channel again after rising to a two-and-a-half-month high of 209,175 mt on December 14 last year.
China's February refined zinc imports plummeted on mom and yoy basis


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 3.37% at 2153.1 as market supply has been relatively tight for lack of imported goods for quite some time. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) benchmark nickel surged 15% to hit its upper trading limit, reversing direction and climbing for the first time since trading resumed last week. LME benchmark nickel slumped for several days in very low volumes and repeatedly hit its lower trading limits after trade was restarted after a break to calm the market. On the demand side, nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract. In terms of stainless steel, there are already transactions in the market amid improving logistics this week. However, bearishness on nickel prices has affected the demand. The global nickel market saw a surplus of 6,000 tonnes in January compared with a deficit of 5,300 tonnes in the same period last year, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Overall there was a deficit in the nickel market of 157,100 tonnes last year compared with a surplus of 103,700 tonnes in 2021, Lisbon-based INSG added. Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine sparked concerns over the metal supply and supercharged existing upward momentum in the market. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.31% to settled at 211 while prices up 70.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2105 and below same could see a test of 2056.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2183.2, a move above could see prices testing 2213.3.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2056.9-2213.3.
Nickel prices rose as market supply has been relatively tight for lack of imported goods for quite some time.
LME nickel surged 15% to hit its upper trading limit, reversing direction and climbing for the first time since trading resumed last week.
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 5.76% at 296.4 as risks of supply shortages amid the heightened Russia-Ukraine conflict underpinned prices. Aluminium prices found support after Australia banned the export to Russia of materials used to make the metal. Russia accounts for about 6% of global aluminium supply. A new report has revealed that global aluminium demand will increase by almost 40 per cent by 2030 and that the aluminium sector will need to produce an additional 33.3 Mt to meet demand growth in all industrial sectors – from 86.2 Mt in 2020 to119.5 Mt in 2030. One global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers premiums of $195 per tonne for April-June primary metal shipments, up 10% from the current quarter. Japan is Asia's biggest importer of the metal and the premiums it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region. Earlier this month, another global supplier had offered premiums of $250 per tonne for the next quarter, up 41% from $177 per tonne in the current quarter. The British government said that the measures taken by the US to cancel import tariffs on British steel and aluminium will take effect on June 1. According to “Term 232”, the US can impose a tariff of 25% on steel imports and 10% on aluminium imports. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.47% to settled at 1682 while prices up 16.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 284.2 and below same could see a test of 272 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 302.8, a move above could see prices testing 309.2.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 272-309.2.
Aluminium prices edged higher as risks of supply shortages amid the heightened Russia-Ukraine conflict underpinned prices.
Global aluminium demand to reach new highs after Covid - IAI
One global aluminium producer seeks Q2 premiums of $195/T


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 1069.9 as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 10.6 Rupees to end at 1177.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.79% to settled at 341 while prices up 7.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1060 and below same could see a test of 1050.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1084.8, a move above could see prices testing 1099.8.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1050.2-1099.8.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 10.6 Rupees to end at 1177.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices rose as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 8560 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. T Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. he farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8631.25 Rupees gained 3.75 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.53% to settled at 12870 while prices down -22 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8524 and below same could see a test of 8486 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8602, a move above could see prices testing 8642.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8486-8642.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8631.25 Rupees gained 3.75 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.09% at 21715 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 317.65 Rupees to end at 21117.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.38% to settled at 10956 while prices up 445 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21390 and below same could see a test of 21065 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21910, a move above could see prices testing 22105.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21065-22105.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
However, there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 317.65 Rupees to end at 21117.65 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.74% at 40450 amid strong demand and possible lower supplies. Atul Ganatra, president of Cotton Association of India said that demand in local mills is good and new spinning mills are coming up. Demand is good but the profit that spinning mills were earnings has been reduced and now they will be at par or there will be a loss to the spinning mills at a high rate of cotton. Due to high rate of cotton, sowing likely to increase 15-20 percent in the season. USDA’s weekly export sales data showed that cotton shipments reached 96% of the USDA’s marketing year estimates to 371,400 bales, which is also 5% more than that of the previous week and 34% higher from the prior 4-week average. At the same time, concerns grew over the drought conditions in West Texas on the back of lower than normal precipitation forecasts for the area. Also, USDA in its March 10th report estimated 2021/22 global cotton consumption to be 111,000 bales higher compared to last month’s projections while it sees world ending stocks 1.7 million bales lower due to smaller global production, particularly from India. Cotton production at 340.63 lakh bales for this season (October 2021-September 2022) against 352.48 lakh bales last season, as per second advance estimate, the Union Ministry for Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. In spot market, Cotton gained by 370 Rupees to end at 40210 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -24.37% to settled at 2604 while prices up 690 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 39910 and below same could see a test of 39380 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 40880, a move above could see prices testing 41320.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 39380-41320.
Cotton prices rose amid strong demand and possible lower supplies.
CAI said that demand in local mills is good and new spinning mills are coming up.
Due to high rate of cotton, sowing likely to increase 15-20 percent in the season.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 370 Rupees to end at 40210 Rupees.

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