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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 51262 as expectations of aggressive U.S. policy tightening spurred the dollar and added pressure on non-yielding bullion. The US central bank is expected to increase interest rates by a hefty 50 basis points at its May 3-4 meeting to bring inflation under control. Investors also remained cautious about China’s Covid situation amid fears that Shanghai-style lockdowns may spread to other parts of the country, while Russia’s latest move to cut gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland escalated an energy crisis in Europe. Global demand for gold surged 34% year-on-year in the first quarter to the highest in over three years, driven by investors worried about Russia's invasion of Ukraine and rising inflation, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in a report. Strong demand for gold-based exchange traded funds (ETFs) helped to boost total gold demand to 1,234 tonnes in the first three months of 2022, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2018, it added. The first quarter total was also above the five-year average of 1,039 tonnes. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 38.7% in March from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports stood at 12.716 tonnes in March, compared with 20.734 tonnes in February, the data showed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.12% to settled at 13388 while prices up 63 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50949 and below same could see a test of 50635 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51456, a move above could see prices testing 51649.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50635-51649.
Gold prices steadied as expectations of aggressive U.S. policy tightening spurred the dollar
Dollar climbs towards 20-year high
Ukraine war, inflation drives Q1 jump in gold demand, WGC says

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.09% at 64580 as the dollar climbed higher amid expectations of aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. A weak euro following the Russian gas-halt to Poland Bulgaria contributed as well to the dollar's sharp uptick. In U.S. economic news, pending home sales in the U.S. decreased for the fifth straight month in March, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors. NAR said its pending home sales slumped by 1.2% to 103.7 in March after plunging by 4% to a revised 105.0 in February. U.S. economic growth unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter as a resurgence in COVID-19 cases disrupted activity, but the decline in output paints a misleading picture of the economy amid solid domestic demand. Gross domestic product fell at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance GDP estimate. That was the first decline since the pandemic recession nearly two years ago. The economy grew at a robust 6.9% pace in the fourth quarter. The slump in output reflected a wider trade deficit and moderate pace of inventory accumulation. While the headline figure could lead to howls about stagflation and recession from some quarters, it is not a true reflection of the economy. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 24.7% to settled at 11103 while prices down -710 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64209 and below same could see a test of 63837 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64944, a move above could see prices testing 65307.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 63837-65307.
Silver dropped as the dollar climbed higher amid expectations of aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
A weak euro following the Russian gas-halt to Poland Bulgaria contributed as well to the dollar's sharp uptick.
Pending home sales in the U.S. decreased for the fifth straight month in March

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.21% at 8037 supported by growing expectations the EU would move toward banning Russian crude imports. Oil prices also found support from news that Russian gas company Gazrom has halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for rejecting its demand to pay in Russian rubles. OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing deal and agree another 432,000 barrel per day oil output increase for June when it meets on May 5. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, have been unwinding record output cuts in place since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in 2020. Major consumers, led by the United States, have been pressing the group to boost output at a faster pace, however, especially as Western sanctions hit Russian output. Japan's crude oil imports in March rose 22.5% from a year earlier to 2.87 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to 14.15 million kilolitres, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said. Its oil imports from Russia fell 19% from a year earlier to 104,294 bpd but rose by 10.7% from the previous month. Japan's domestic oil product sales last month fell 3.4% from a year earlier to 2.7 million bpd, the data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 56.27% to settled at 6865 while prices up 250 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7800 and below same could see a test of 7563 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8167, a move above could see prices testing 8297.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7563-8297.
Crude oil gained supported by growing expectations the EU would move toward banning Russian crude imports.
However, concerns about outlook for demand due to the lockdown in China limited oil's uptick.
OPEC+ likely to raise June output by 432,000 bpd

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.25% at 536.4 on rising output as warmer weather in North Dakota unfroze wells and on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand next week than previously expected. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December 2021. On a daily basis, output was on track to gain about 0.1 bcfd after dropping about 3.6 bcfd over the prior four days to an 11-week low of 91.8 bcfd on Wednesday, as a late season cold snap caused wells to freeze in North Dakota and the Rocky Mountains. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 93.6 bcfd this week to 90.5 bcfd next week due to a seasonal warming of the weather. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid to 12.3 bcfd so far in April due to maintenance at several Gulf Coast plants, down from a record 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.01% to settled at 4751 while prices down -29.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 522.8 and below same could see a test of 509.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 559.9, a move above could see prices testing 583.3.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 509.1-583.3.
Natural gas dropped on rising output as warmer weather in North Dakota unfroze wells and on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand
Higher global prices have kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 787.2 as growing concerns over the impact on demand from continued COVID-19 restrictions in top metals consumer China and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on sentiment. However, downside seen limited on hopes that China will step up its metal-intensive infrastructure construction to counter the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns. China will step up infrastructure construction to boost domestic demand and drive economic growth going forward. Beijing closed some public spaces and stepped up checks at others on Thursday, as most of the city's 22 million residents embarked on more COVID-19 mass testing aimed at averting a Shanghai-like lockdown. The dollar was nearing heights not seen in two decades on Thursday as the energy crisis in Europe hamstrung the euro, while the yen was undercut by expectations the Bank of Japan would stick to its super-easy policies. The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in March likely as businesses who are worried about shortages front-loaded imports after the conflict in Ukraine, raising the risk that economic growth stalled in the first quarter. The global world refined copper market showed a 16,000 tonne surplus in January, compared with a 74,000 tonnes deficit in December, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.99% to settled at 4057 while prices down -4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 781.3 and below same could see a test of 775.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 793, a move above could see prices testing 798.8.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 775.4-798.8.
Copper prices slipped as growing concerns over the impact on demand from continued COVID-19 restrictions in top metals consumer China.
However, downside seen limited on hopes that China will step up its metal-intensive infrastructure construction to counter the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns.
The global world refined copper market showed a 16,000 tonne surplus in January, compared with a 74,000 tonnes deficit in December

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.33% at 352.5 as the US dollar soared and refreshed its 5-year high in light of the US interest rate hike as well as a sharp rally in U.S. bond yields. The global zinc market moved to a surplus of 14,300 tonnes in February from a revised deficit of 17,500 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 15,000 tonnes in January. During the first two months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 3,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 92,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc is produced and consumed each year. China's central bank said it will step up prudent monetary policy support to the real economy, especially to small firms hit by COVID-19, responding to a media question seeking comment on swings in the financial markets. China will keep liquidity reasonably ample and boost healthy and stable development of the financial markets, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. The PBOC also said it will add 100 billion yuan ($15.3 billion) in relending to support coal development and increase storage capacity. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.97% to settled at 1228 while prices down -4.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 348.8 and below same could see a test of 345 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 357.9, a move above could see prices testing 363.2.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 345-363.2.
Zinc dropped as the US dollar soared and refreshed its 5-year high in light of the US interest rate hike
Global zinc market swings to surplus of 14,300 T in February – ILZSG
China's central bank said it will step up prudent monetary policy support to the real economy

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 2550 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.44% to settled at 42 while prices down -2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2550 and below same could see a test of 2550 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2550, a move above could see prices testing 2550.
Trading Ideas: 
Nickel trading range for the day is 2550-2550.
Nickel settled flat as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Global nickel market sees surplus in February – INSG
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.84% at 253.5 as the pandemic did not affect the overall pace of production resumption by aluminium smelters. The Asian region faces a "stagflationary" outlook, a senior International Monetary Fund official warned, citing the Ukraine war, spike in commodity costs and a slowdown in China as creating significant uncertainty. China will step up infrastructure construction to boost domestic demand and push for high-quality growth, state TV reported, citing a top economics meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping. The government will speed up construction of green and low carbon energy bases, while improving the oil and gas pipeline networks, the meeting said. China will meet the financing need for these projects and step up fiscal spending, according to China Central Television. The US dollar index has been high recently as market worries tightening monetary policy by the US Fed, pressuring commodities prices that priced with US dollars. Meanwhile, RMB devalued, which triggered steep falls of A-shares, despite the People’s Bank of China’s lowering of foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio. Global primary aluminium output in March fell 1.55% year on year to 5.693 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.74% to settled at 2662 while prices down -4.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 250.2 and below same could see a test of 246.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 258.5, a move above could see prices testing 263.3.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 246.7-263.3.
Aluminium dropped as the pandemic did not affect the overall pace of production resumption by aluminium smelters.
China will step up infrastructure construction to boost growth – President Xi
Global aluminium output falls 1.55% in March year on year, IAI says

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.82% at 1086.3 as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 20.2 Rupees to end at 1210.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.67% to settled at 1056 while prices up 19.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1067.4 and below same could see a test of 1048.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1098.5, a move above could see prices testing 1110.8.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1048.6-1110.8.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 20.2 Rupees to end at 1210.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil gains as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed.
Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser.
The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.97% at 8566 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8662.5 Rupees dropped -21.65 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.65% to settled at while prices down -172 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8494 and below same could see a test of 8420 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8692, a move above could see prices testing 8816.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8420-8816.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8662.5 Rupees dropped -21.65 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.17% at 22035 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -177.75 Rupees to end at 21907.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.9% to settled at while prices down -260 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21860 and below same could see a test of 21685 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22275, a move above could see prices testing 22515.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21685-22515.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -177.75 Rupees to end at 21907.8 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.61% at 45370 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. The Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 320 Rupees to end at 45290 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.26% to settled at 3858 while prices up 720 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 44880 and below same could see a test of 44390 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45730, a move above could see prices testing 46090.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 44390-46090.
Cotton gained due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 320 Rupees to end at 45290 Rupees.

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