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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 51199 as a rally in dollar on expectations of faster U.S. rate hikes dented the appeal of greenback-priced bullion. The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in March amid a broad surge in imports, suggesting that trade remained a drag on economic growth in the first quarter. The report from the Commerce Department also showed solid increases in retail and wholesales inventories. But the pace of inventory accumulation was probably not fast enough to provide a boost to gross domestic product growth. The goods trade deficit jumped 17.8% to an all-time of $125.3 billion. Imports of goods accelerated 11.5% to $294.6 billion. They were boosted by a 15% surge in industrial supplies, which include petroleum products. Consumer goods imports vaulted 13.6%, while motor vehicles increased 12.0%. There were also solid gains in imports of food and capital goods. China's gold consumption fell 9.69% in the first quarter on the year to 260.26 tonnes, the China Gold Association said, as demand was hurt by rising prices and an outbreak of COVID-19 in March. Gold output in the period from January to March rose 12.04% on an annual basis to 83.401 tonnes, the association said in a statement. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.8% to settled at 13539 while prices down -385 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50976 and below same could see a test of 50752 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51530, a move above could see prices testing 51860.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50752-51860.
Gold prices slipped as a rally in dollar on expectations of faster U.S. rate hikes dented the appeal of greenback-priced bullion.
Dollar hits highest since March 2020
U.S. goods trade deficit hits record high; inventories rise

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 64680 as the dollar held ground at its highest in more than 2 years and pressured demand for greenback-priced bullion. The dollar rallied to its highest since March 2020 as concerns about slowing growth in China and expectations for faster Federal Reserve interest rate hikes boosted demand for the greenback. Investors are also monitoring escalating geopolitical tensions after Russia said it will stop supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria as the EU-member countries refused its demand to pay for gas imports in rubles. Silver demand will climb to a record level this year thanks to increasing use of solar panels as governments boost renewable energy to meet climate goals, setting the stage for years of supply deficits, an industry report said. Global silver demand is expected to rise to 1.1 billion ounces this year, up 5% from 2021. This sizzling demand will push the silver market into a deficit of 71.5 million ounces this year after a shortfall of 51.8 million ounces in 2021. Uncertainty around the Ukraine war and the possibility of a global recession presents a risk to industrial demand, which accounts for around half of silver consumption. In 2021, demand for silver for jewellery rose 21% to 181.4 million ounces but remained below pre-pandemic levels as higher prices deterred some physical buying in India, one of the biggest markets. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.14% to settled at 4068 while prices down -288 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64352 and below same could see a test of 64025 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65162, a move above could see prices testing 65645.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 64025-65645.
Silver dropped as the dollar held ground at its highest in more than 2 years and pressured demand for greenback-priced bullion.
The dollar rallied to its highest since March 2020 as concerns about slowing growth in China and expectations for faster Federal Reserve interest rate hikes
Silver demand will climb to a record level this year thanks to increasing use of solar panels as governments boost renewable energy to meet climate goals

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.04% at 7787 as investors balance supply and demand concerns over Russian oil and gas disruption and a worsening global economic outlook. The Covid situation in China continued to weigh on the markets amid fears that Beijing may join Shanghai into lockdowns, clouding the outlook further for global growth and fuel demand. API showed U.S. crude and distillate stocks rose last week, while gasoline inventories fell. China's central bank said it would step up monetary policy support as Beijing races to stamp out a nascent COVID-19 outbreak in the capital and avert the same type of debilitating city-wide lockdown Shanghai has been under for a month. Any stimulus would boost oil demand. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that Asia faced a "stagflationary" outlook. U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 692,000 barrels in the week to April 22 to 414.4 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2 million-barrel rise. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 1.3 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs fell by 33,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.44% to settled at 4393 while prices down -82 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7667 and below same could see a test of 7546 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7904, a move above could see prices testing 8020.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7546-8020.
Crude oil prices dipped as investors balance supply and demand concerns over Russian oil and gas disruption and a worsening global economic outlook.
U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said.
Crude inventories rose by 692,000 barrels in the week to April 22 to 414.4 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2 million-barrel rise.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.97% at 566.1 on expectations U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) will remain near record highs for months to come, after Russia halted exports to Poland and Bulgaria in its toughest retaliation so far against international sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Russia halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland on Wednesday for rejecting its demand for payment in roubles. U.S. prices also gained support from forecasts for more gas demand in the United States over the next two weeks than previously expected, and a continued drop in U.S. output due to a late-season cold snap that froze oil and gas wells in North Dakota. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December 2021. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 4.3 bcfd due to the North Dakota freeze-offs since Saturday to a preliminary 90.6 bcfd on Wednesday, the lowest since early February. Since freeze-offs usually recover rapidly, we expect production to begin to bounce higher within the next few days. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.38% to settled at 6421 while prices up 21.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 543.3 and below same could see a test of 520.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 580.7, a move above could see prices testing 595.4.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 520.6-595.4.
Natural gas gained after Russia halts exports to Poland and Bulgaria
Higher global prices have kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.15% at 791.2 amid hopes of Chinese economic stimulus however upside seen limited on concerns over COVID-19 lockdowns in top metals consumer China and on expectations for large U.S. interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, China's central bank said it would step up prudent monetary policy support to the real economy, especially small firms hit by COVID-19. Profits at China's industrial firms grew at a faster pace in March from a year earlier, despite the negative impact on the economy from COVID-19 outbreaks and the Ukraine war, official data showed. Chinese-owned MMG Ltd's huge Las Bambas copper mine in Peru is considering a plan to evict indigenous communities that have camped on the property and forced a production halt. The global world refined copper market showed a 16,000 tonne surplus in January, compared with a 74,000 tonnes deficit in December, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. In 2021 the market was in a deficit of 439,000 tonnes, against a 415,000 tonne shortfall a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in January was 2.149 million tonnes while consumption was 2.133 million tonnes. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.71% to settled at 3792 while prices up 1.15 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 785.4 and below same could see a test of 779.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 797.2, a move above could see prices testing 803.1.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 779.5-803.1.
Copper prices gains amid hopes of Chinese economic stimulus however upside seen limited on concerns over COVID-19 lockdowns in China
China's central bank said it would step up prudent monetary policy support to the real economy, especially small firms hit by COVID-19.
Profits at China's industrial firms grew at a faster pace in March from a year earlier

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 357.25 as support seen after the People's Bank of China that it will step up monetary policy support to the real economy. China's central bank said it will step up prudent monetary policy support to the real economy, especially to small firms hit by COVID-19, responding to a media question seeking comment on swings in the financial markets. China will keep liquidity reasonably ample and boost healthy and stable development of the financial markets, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. The PBOC also said it will add 100 billion yuan ($15.3 billion) in relending to support coal development and increase storage capacity. The global zinc market moved to a surplus of 14,300 tonnes in February from a revised deficit of 17,500 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 15,000 tonnes in January. During the first two months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 3,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 92,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc is produced and consumed each year. The fundamentals did not change much with short ore supply in China and slow production recovery of European smelters. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.99% to settled at 1148 while prices up 0.8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 354.2 and below same could see a test of 351.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 360.7, a move above could see prices testing 364.1.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 351.1-364.1.
Zinc gains as support seen after the People's Bank of China that it will step up monetary policy support to the real economy.
China will keep liquidity reasonably ample and boost healthy and stable development of the financial markets
Global zinc market swings to surplus of 14,300 T in February – ILZSG

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 2.5% at 2552 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.81% to settled at 41 while prices up 62.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2544.4 and below same could see a test of 2536.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2562.4, a move above could see prices testing 2572.7.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2536.7-2572.7.
Nickel settled flat as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Global nickel market sees surplus in February – INSG
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 258.25 buoyed by hopes for more economic stimulus from top consumer China. The Asian region faces a "stagflationary" outlook, a senior International Monetary Fund official warned, citing the Ukraine war, spike in commodity costs and a slowdown in China as creating significant uncertainty. China will step up infrastructure construction to boost domestic demand and push for high-quality growth, state TV reported, citing a top economics meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping. The government will speed up construction of green and low carbon energy bases, while improving the oil and gas pipeline networks, the meeting said. China will meet the financing need for these projects and step up fiscal spending, according to China Central Television. The US dollar index has been high recently as market worries tightening monetary policy by the US Fed, pressuring commodities prices that priced with US dollars. Meanwhile, RMB devalued, which triggered steep falls of A-shares, despite the People’s Bank of China’s lowering of foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio. Global primary aluminium output in March fell 1.55% year on year to 5.693 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.09% to settled at 2494 while prices up 1.65 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 255.3 and below same could see a test of 252.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 260.2, a move above could see prices testing 262.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 252.2-262.
Aluminium seen supported buoyed by hopes for more economic stimulus from top consumer China
China will step up infrastructure construction to boost growth – President Xi
Global aluminium output falls 1.55% in March year on year, IAI says

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 1066.9 as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 11.7 Rupees to end at 1190.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.5% to settled at 1085 while prices up 5.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1055.2 and below same could see a test of 1043.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1075.7, a move above could see prices testing 1084.6.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1043.6-1084.6.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 11.7 Rupees to end at 1190.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil gains as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed.
Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser.
The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.03% at 8738 as the arrival of new season itself is decreasing in the market and exports are expected to survive as the season progresses. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8684.15 Rupees gained 50.6 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.57% to settled at while prices up 174 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8538 and below same could see a test of 8336 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8870, a move above could see prices testing 9000.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8336-9000.
Turmeric gained as the arrival of new season itself is decreasing in the market and exports are expected to survive as the season progresses.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8684.15 Rupees gained 50.6 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.75% at 22295 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. New crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 72.45 Rupees to end at 22085.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.58% to settled at while prices up 165 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22020 and below same could see a test of 21740 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22460, a move above could see prices testing 22620.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21740-22620.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 72.45 Rupees to end at 22085.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.57% at 44650 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. The Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 300 Rupees to end at 44970 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.86% to settled at 3848 while prices up 690 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 44080 and below same could see a test of 43500 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45000, a move above could see prices testing 45340.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 43500-45340.
Cotton gained due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 300 Rupees to end at 44970 Rupees.

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