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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.75% at 52166 as the safe-haven metal's appeal was lifted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and concerns over sky-high inflation. Along with the Ukraine crisis, worries over high inflation and whether efforts by major central banks are enough to rein it in are weighing on the economy and helping gold do well. Meanwhile, aggressive bets for a faster pace of Federal Reserve tightening may have been scaled back as markets have already priced in bigger rate hikes, while fears of a possible recession added uncertainties to the outlook. US consumer spending barely rose in February as an increase in spending on services was offset by declining purchases of motor vehicles and other goods, while price pressures mounted, with annual inflation surging by the most since the early 1980s. But the report from the Commerce Department showed spending in January was much stronger than initially estimated. That put consumer spending on track for solid growth this quarter, which would keep the economy expanding, despite the rising headwinds from inflation that is driven by shortages. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.2% last month. Data for January was revised higher to show outlays rebounding 2.7% instead of 2.1% as previously reported. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.89% to settled at 19172 while prices up 390 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51637 and below same could see a test of 51108 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52458, a move above could see prices testing 52750.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51108-52750.
Gold prices rose as the safe-haven metal's appeal was lifted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and concerns over sky-high inflation.
Consumer spending increases 0.2% in February
Weekly jobless claims increase 14,000 to 202,000


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 67487 as investors weighed the impacts of new U.S. sanctions on Russia and the outlook for economic growth. Prices gained significantly as the unprecedented geopolitical crisis in eastern Europe increased safe-haven appeal dramatically. Concerns over runaway inflation and fears of whether the central bank's actions would suffice to stop the inflationary spiral could increase the metal's appeal as an inflation hedge. The Labor Department released a report showing a modest increase in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended March 26th. The report showed initial jobless claims edged up to 202,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level of 188,000. U.S. consumer spending slowed sharply in February as the effect of pandemic-driven stimulus programs faded and high inflation started to bite. Personal spending rose only 0.2% on the month, down from an upwardly revised 2.7% in January, according to figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of February, according to a report released by the Commerce Department. The report showed personal income rose by 0.5 percent in February after inching up by a revised 0.1 percent in January. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.89% to settled at 6029 while prices up 81 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66729 and below same could see a test of 65970 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68068, a move above could see prices testing 68648.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 65970-68648.
Silver rose as investors weighed the impacts of new U.S. sanctions on Russia and the outlook for economic growth.
Prices gained significantly as the unprecedented geopolitical crisis in eastern Europe increased safe-haven appeal dramatically.
Data showed a modest increase in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended March 26th.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.3% at 7766 on news that the United States was considering the largest ever release from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while OPEC+ stuck to its existing deal for May output. The record U.S. SPR oil release of 180 million barrels is the equivalent to two days of global demand and would hit the market over several months, four U.S. sources said, as the White House tries to lower fuel prices. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, agreed at a meeting on Thursday to stick to its existing agreement and raise its May production target by 432,000 barrels per day (bpd). OPEC+ has warned the global economy would see a major blow from a prolonged conflict in Ukraine. "Consumer and business sentiment is expected to decline not only in Europe, but also in the rest of the world, when only accounting for the inflationary impact the conflict has already caused," it said. U.S. crude stockpiles last week fell to the lowest since September 2018, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Crude stocks fell to 409.95 million barrels, EIA data showed. Crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 568.32 million barrels, lowest since May 2002, the data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -35.2% to settled at 4335 while prices down -349 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7586 and below same could see a test of 7406 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7957, a move above could see prices testing 8148.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7406-8148.
Crude oil dropped on news that the United States was considering the largest ever release from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve
OPEC+ sticks to existing agreement with 432,000 bpd rise in May
U.S. considering release of 180 mln barrels of oil


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3% at 436.4 on forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Russia's Gazprom is considering options of halting gas supplies to Europe amid issues of payments in Roubles. The European Commission said it will work closely with European Union countries to prepare for gas supply situations, after Germany triggered an emergency plan to manage gas supplies in case of a potential disruption to flows from Russia. "We are prepared for any such cases. We will of course, work closely with member states to have everybody be prepared for any sort of situations," EU climate policy chief Frans Timmermans told a news conference. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was up 93.3 bcfd so far in March, up from 92.5 bcfd in February, as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing over the winter. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 105.3 bcfd this week to 95.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.44% to settled at 8556 while prices up 12.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 419.4 and below same could see a test of 402.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 448.1, a move above could see prices testing 459.8.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 402.4-459.8.
Natural gas rose on forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Russia's Gazprom is considering options of halting gas supplies to Europe amid issues of payments in Roubles
China targets an output of 214 billion cubic metres of natural gas by 2022 - NEA



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 821.45 as investors remained cautious amid worries of supply disruptions due to war in Ukraine. Still, concerns over demand from the world's largest consumer China lingered. China's financial hub of Shanghai launched a planned two-stage lockdown to contain a coronavirus surge and said that all companies and factories would suspend manufacturing. On the supply side, the world's largest copper producer Codelco said it would start drilling in the Salar de Maricunga by late March and last about ten months. Meanwhile, the rising global production should ease worries about the market deficit. The ICSG said mine production grew by around 2.3% in 2021, driven by higher output from Peru, the world's second-largest copper-producing country, and Indonesia. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 7% year on year to 399,817 tonnes in February, the country's statistics agency said. Chile's central bank revised its forecast for 2022 economic growth, dropping it to a range of 1.0% to 2.0% from an estimate of 1.5% to 2.5% in December. "The economy will expand at rates below its potential in 2022 and 2023, with contractions in private consumption and investment," the central bank said in a statement. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.65% to settled at 3513 while prices down -0.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 816.1 and below same could see a test of 810.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 825.4, a move above could see prices testing 829.3.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 810.7-829.3.
Copper steadied as investors remained cautious amid worries of supply disruptions due to war in Ukraine.
Chile's February copper production down 7%
The ICSG said mine production grew by around 2.3% in 2021, driven by higher output from Peru


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 344.5 as global refined zinc output continues to be pressured, as major producers Nyrstar and Glencore have announced a cut in production on the back of the energy crisis in Europe. Most recently in March, Nyrstar restarted the Auby zinc smelter in France but stressed that high electricity prices still hinder the smelter’s full production, and the restart of the smelter is more due to government subsidies. Total zinc inventories in the domestic market got reduced in view of the curbs announced by the Chinese government to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic that has resurfaced. It expected zinc prices to rise further in the next quarter. Chinese production has begun to stabilise after being hampered by government-enforced power-rationing in Yunnan province last year, but the output is not back to past levels as yet. Market supply remained tight. On the consumption side, terminal orders fell amid high zinc prices, and downstream manufacturers were also cautious in purchasing. In addition, the China manufacturing PMI released today stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. In the spot market, transactions almost stagnated amid strict pandemic control measures in Shanghai, and some downstream manufacturers turned to purchase from surrounding areas like Ningbo. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.09% to settled at 1068 while prices up 0.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 339.6 and below same could see a test of 334.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 349.2, a move above could see prices testing 353.7.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 334.5-353.7.
Zinc prices remained supported as global refined zinc output continues to be pressured, as major producers have announced a cut in production
Prices also remained supported as market supply remained tight.
The China manufacturing PMI released today stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.57% at 2410 on disappointing China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. In terms of stainless steel, the operating rates of steel mills were lower than expected, and spot transactions were muted against the backdrop of high raw material prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 182 while prices down -63.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2410 and below same could see a test of 2410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2410, a move above could see prices testing 2410.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2410-2410.
Nickel dropped on disappointing China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY
Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.64% at 281.95 as aluminium social inventory stood at 1.04 million mt, up 2,000 mt from a week ago, and down 11,000 mt from Monday. Domestic aluminium ingot inventory kept rising, and a large number of ingot was still on road and has not yet been warehoused. The shipments to and from warehouses stood low amid poor logistics efficiency, which is unlikely to be addressed in the short term. And the pandemic also depressed downstream operating rates. Activity in Chinese manufacturing and services simultaneously contracted in March for the first time since the height of the country's COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, adding to the urgency for more policy intervention to stabilise the economy. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.5 from 50.2 in February, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, while the non-manufacturing PMI eased to 48.4 from 51.6 in February. The last time both PMI indexes simultaneously were below the 50-point mark that separates contraction from growth was in February 2020, when authorities were racing to arrest the spread of the coronavirus, first detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.63% to settled at 2471 while prices down -4.7 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 278.8 and below same could see a test of 275.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 287.9, a move above could see prices testing 293.7.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 275.5-293.7.
Aluminium dropped as aluminium social inventory stood at 1.04 million mt, up 2,000 mt from a week ago
Domestic aluminium ingot inventory kept rising, and a large number of ingot was still on road and has not yet been warehoused.
China's factory, services sectors slump together for first time since 2020


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 2.8% at 1091.8 as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 0.3 Rupees to end at 1179.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.44% to settled at 1012 while prices up 29.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1066.7 and below same could see a test of 1041.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1110.7, a move above could see prices testing 1129.6.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1041.6-1129.6.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 0.3 Rupees to end at 1179.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices seen supported as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.15% at 8774 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8690 Rupees gained 19.4 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.72% to settled at 8905 while prices up 100 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8640 and below same could see a test of 8508 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8896, a move above could see prices testing 9020.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8508-9020.
Turmeric gained as Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones
New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8690 Rupees gained 19.4 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 21530 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.2 Rupees to end at 21215.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.56% to settled at 9138 while prices up 140 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21220 and below same could see a test of 20915 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21735, a move above could see prices testing 21945.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20915-21945.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
Export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
At Jodhpur market, new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.2 Rupees to end at 21215.8 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.08% at 42240 on profit booking after prices rose on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export. The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week. At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment, similarly the stock of Binola is also low. The price of cotton yarn is continuously increasing, but there is no major demand in the domestic market and export market, due to which the Spinners' Mills Association has cut production, due to which cotton industries will benefit in the long run. Spinning mills are buying cotton at higher prices as the balance sheet of cotton is becoming tighter continuously. In the current year, due to quality variation in the production of cotton from the beginning, there was a possibility of a sharp decline in the production and given the current arrivals and stock positions, there is no possibility of increasing the production of cotton in the country by 280 to 290 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 60 Rupees to end at 43410 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.13% to settled at 5616 while prices down -460 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 41740 and below same could see a test of 41230 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 43070, a move above could see prices testing 43890.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 41230-43890.
Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices rose on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export.
The arrival of cotton is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week.
There are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 60 Rupees to end at 43410 Rupees.

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