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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.23% at 52628 as expectations of an aggressive tightening of U.S. monetary policy buoyed the dollar and Treasury yields, denting the appeal of zero-yielding bullion. Hawkish comments from U.S. central bank officials, including St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard, propelled the dollar and 10-year Treasury yields to multi-year highs. The benchmark 10-year US yield surged to multi-year highs past 2.9% as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates as it tries to stem soaring inflation. The dollar also held near a 2-year high, making gold less attractive for other currency holders. Meanwhile, the IMF slashed its forecast for global economic growth by nearly a full percentage point, citing Russia’s war in Ukraine, and warning that inflation was now a “clear and present danger” for many countries. U.S. home sales fell more than expected in March as house prices hit a record high despite some improvement in supply, and could decline further amid surging mortgage rates. Existing home sales dropped 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units last month, the National Association of Realtors said. The data mostly reflected the closing of contracts signed two to three months ago when the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was below 4%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.97% to settled at 16869 while prices down -121 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52408 and below same could see a test of 52189 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52748, a move above could see prices testing 52869.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 52189-52869.
Gold prices eased as expectations of an aggressive tightening of U.S. monetary policy buoyed the dollar and Treasury yields,
Dollar hovers close to an over two-year high
Hawkish comments from U.S. central bank officials, propelled the dollar and 10-year Treasury yields to multi-year highs.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 68406 as a strong dollar and soaring Treasury yields spooked investors. U.S. home sales fell more than expected in March as house prices hit a record high despite some improvement in supply, and could decline further amid surging mortgage rates. Existing home sales dropped 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units last month, the National Association of Realtors said. The data mostly reflected the closing of contracts signed two to three months ago when the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was below 4%. German government bond yields fell today but were still at multi-year highs due to expectations around inflation and higher interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield shed 7 basis points as investors assessed growth challenges from the Ukraine war and the potential for a peak in inflation. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that he favours two half-point rate hikes at upcoming meetings and move rate to 2.25-2.50 percent by the end of the year. Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said that a 75-basis point rate hike is not on the cards and expressed concerns about the impact of faster policy tightening on the U.S. economic recovery. Bostic added that the neutral rate could be between 2 percent and 2.5 percent and the funds rate could be as low as 1.75 percent. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.59% to settled at 5370 while prices down -364 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68046 and below same could see a test of 67686 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68693, a move above could see prices testing 68980.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 67686-68980.
Silver dropped as a strong dollar and soaring Treasury yields spooked investors.
U.S. home sales fell more than expected in March as house prices hit a record high despite some improvement in supply
German government bond yields fell today but were still at multi-year highs due to expectations around inflation and higher interest rates.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 7857 weighed by a softer global economic outlook and continuing coronavirus lockdowns in China have hurt demand in the world's top crude importer. Libya is currently losing more than 550,000 barrels per day in oil production from blockades on major fields and export terminals, the National Oil Corporation media office said. The blockades by groups in southern and eastern Libya citing political demands have caused NOC to declare force majeure on output from several major fields and ports in recent days. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal could return to full capacity as early as Wednesday, Kazakh Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov said. The CPC pipeline and terminal, which ship about 80% of Kazakh crude exports, have been working at half the usual capacity after a storm damaged two of its three mooring points last month. Akchulakov said that one of the damaged mooring points had been repaired and could be used to load a tanker on Wednesday, although that would also depend on the weather. OPEC+ produced 1.45 mln barrels per day (bpd) below its production targets in March, as Russian output began to decline following sanctions imposed by the West. Russia produced about 300,000 bpd below its target in March at 10.018 million bpd, based on secondary sources, the report showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.73% to settled at 4442 while prices down -8 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7680 and below same could see a test of 7503 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7992, a move above could see prices testing 8127.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7503-8127.
Crude oil dropped weighed by a softer global economic outlook and continuing coronavirus lockdowns in China have hurt demand in the world's top crude importer.
OPEC+ supply gap widens in March as sanctions hit Russian output
CPC terminal may return to full capacity in days, says Kazakh minister

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.3% at 531.8 after shedding over 8% in the previous session as forecasts indicated a turn to slightly warmer weather. Data provider Refinitiv estimated there would be 131 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, closer to the 30-year norm of 122 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of days a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). Meanwhile, data from Refinitiv showed average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was at 94.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March, down from December's monthly record of 96.3 bcfd. The International Monetary Fund slashed its forecast for global economic growth, citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and warning that inflation was now a "clear and present danger" for many countries, triggering concerns over demand and also weighing on crude prices. U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 97.41 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 100.86 bcfd in 2023 from a record 93.57 bcfd in 2021. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -38.74% to settled at 3432 while prices down -12.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 511.6 and below same could see a test of 491.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 559, a move above could see prices testing 586.1.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 491.3-586.1.
Natural gas slipped after shedding over 8% in the previous session as forecasts indicated a turn to slightly warmer weather.
Natural gas output in China is soaring after Beijing pressured state-owned producers to ramp up production
U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.14% at 816 as coronavirus-induced lockdowns in top consumer China sparked concerns about demand. China's COVID-19 outbreak already has hit economic activity and triggered government pledges for more stimulus to support the world's second-largest economy. Pressuring prices further were recent data showing that copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses rose to the highest level since October, up 12,275 tonnes to 128,775 tonnes. Meanwhile, those in the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to a two-month low of 88,682 tonnes. Elsewhere, MMG Ltd said its Las Bambas copper mine in Peru would suspend operations from April 20 after the Fuerabamba community invaded the property as part of a protest. China's central bank urged financial institutions to step up support for the contact-intensive service sector and small firms affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, it said in a statement. China kept its benchmark lending rates for corporate and household loans steady at its April fixing on Wednesday, defying expectations, as Beijing has become more cautious in rolling out easing measures to aid a slowing economy. Dampening market appetite, the International Monetary Fund slashed its forecast for global economic growth by nearly a full percentage point, citing the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.1% to settled at 2905 while prices down -9.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 809.8 and below same could see a test of 803.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 823.6, a move above could see prices testing 831.2.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 803.6-831.2.
Copper dropped as coronavirus-induced lockdowns in top consumer China sparked concerns about demand.
Pressuring prices further were recent data showing that copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses rose to the highest level since October
China's central bank urged financial institutions to step up support for the contact-intensive service sector and small firms affected by the COVID-19 pandemic

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.99% at 372.3 as the market digested the IMF’s lowering of global economic growth in 2022. According to China General Administration of Customs, China imported 21,343 mt of refined zinc in March, with #2 zinc ingot making up the majority of the total imports, with a volume of 18,592 mt. The imports of #2 zinc ingot from Turkey took up 70.8% of the March imports. On the consumption side, the downstream purchased on dips, and the trading market was still quiet. The front-month invoices available were still tight in Shanghai and surrounding markets. The People's Bank of China kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged for corporate and household loans at its April fixing. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was left unchanged at 3.7% following cuts of 5 and 10 bps in December and January, respectively; while the five-year rate was kept at 4.6% after a 5-basis-point cut in January. The PBoC last week cut its benchmark reserve requirement ratio for all banks by 25 bps, the first time this year and effective from April 25th, in an efforts to boost the long-term funds for banks; and kept borrowing costs of its medium-term lending facility (MLF) steady for the third straight month. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.68% to settled at 1382 while prices down -7.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 368.1 and below same could see a test of 363.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 378.2, a move above could see prices testing 384.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 363.8-384.
Zinc dropped as the market digested the IMF’s lowering of global economic growth in 2022.
China imported 21,343 mt of refined zinc in March
The People's Bank of China kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged for corporate and household loans at its April fixing.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 2516.6 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.51% to settled at 128 while prices up 11 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2501 and below same could see a test of 2485.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2536, a move above could see prices testing 2555.5.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2485.5-2555.5.
Nickel gained Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
However upside seen limited amid demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals.
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 269.3 as weak demand in China and Japan overshadowed worries of supply disruptions from Russia. The latest data showed China’s primary aluminum imports fell by 55.1% from a year earlier in March and by 71% in Q1. At the same time, Chinese aluminum production rose 1.8% to 3.3 million tons in the 12 months to March, the highest since last May. On top of that, China ramped up aluminum exports, rising 26.7% on an annual basis to 1.6 million tonnes in Q1, as the world scrambles to replace Russia's roughly 6% global market share. Meantime, a fall in Japanese physical premiums for April-June shipments is the latest sign of weak demand in the world's four-biggest economy. Global primary aluminium output in March fell 1.55% year on year to 5.693 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.29 million tonnes in March, the IAI said. China's alumina exports to Russia surged over 90 times in March from the same period a year earlier, customs data showed, as sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine cut off some of its traditional supplies. In March, China shipped 9,949 tonnes of alumina to Russia, up from 104.5 tonnes the same month in 2021, according to the General Administration of Customs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.91% to settled at 2269 while prices down -0.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 267 and below same could see a test of 264.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 271, a move above could see prices testing 272.7.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 264.7-272.7.
Aluminum dropped as weak demand in China and Japan overshadowed worries of supply disruptions from Russia.
China's March alumina exports to Russia soar as sanctions over Ukraine bite
Global aluminium output falls 1.55% in March year on year, IAI says

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.41% at 1083.8 on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 4.1 Rupees to end at 1207.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -29.37% to settled at 505 while prices up 4.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1060.8 and below same could see a test of 1037.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1097.3, a move above could see prices testing 1110.9.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1037.9-1110.9.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 4.1 Rupees to end at 1207.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices seen supported on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.89% at 8824 as the arrival of new season itself is decreasing in the market and exports are expected to survive as the season progresses. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8864.7 Rupees dropped -23.55 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.12% to settled at while prices up 78 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8698 and below same could see a test of 8572 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8934, a move above could see prices testing 9044.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8572-9044.
Turmeric gained as the arrival of new season itself is decreasing in the market and exports are expected to survive as the season progresses.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8864.7 Rupees dropped -23.55 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.94% at 22075 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. New crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.1 Rupees to end at 21871.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.63% to settled at while prices up 205 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21820 and below same could see a test of 21560 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22270, a move above could see prices testing 22460.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21560-22460.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.1 Rupees to end at 21871.45 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.62% at 44670 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. The Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -210 Rupees to end at 44970 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.47% to settled at 3088 while prices up 710 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 44170 and below same could see a test of 43660 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44950, a move above could see prices testing 45220.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 43660-45220.
Cotton gained due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -210 Rupees to end at 44970 Rupees.

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