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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 51876 as dollar seen supported as economic data on the labor market helped firm expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in taking steps to curb inflation. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits dropped to a 52-1/2-year low last week, while unemployment rolls continued to shrink, pointing to rapidly diminishing labor market slack that will keep boosting wage inflation. The strength in the job market reported by the Labor Department on Thursday may push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by half a percentage point at its next policy meeting in May. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank must move "expeditiously" to raise rates and possibly "more aggressively" to keep high inflation from becoming entrenched. The Fed last week increased its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, the first hike in more than three years. Britain revised its Russian sanctions guidance to make clear that British entities cannot help Moscow sell off its gold reserves in an attempt to evade the punitive measures designed to lock it out of international financial markets. Britain has expressed concern that Russia could be using gold transactions to evade sanctions launched in coordination with allies after Moscow led an invasion of Ukraine. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.47% to settled at 6442 while prices down -202 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51726 and below same could see a test of 51575 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52064, a move above could see prices testing 52251.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51575-52251.
Gold prices dropped as dollar seen supported as economic data on the labor market helped firm expectations the Fed will be more aggressive
Weekly jobless claims fall 28,000 to 187,000
Continuing claims decline 67,000 to 1.350 million


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 68836 as Treasury yields ticked higher in the wake of broad-based and persistent price pressures and a more hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he's "comfortable" with raising rates in quarter-point increments, while being "open" to a 50 basis-point move if needed. He expects six more 25 basis point increases in the central bank's policy interest rate by the end of the year and three more next year, putting the Fed funds rate in a range of 2.75- 3 percent by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the Kremlin said today that U.S. talk of Russia possibly resorting to chemical weapons in Ukraine was a tactic to divert attention away from awkward questions for Washington. U.S. President Joe Biden will travel to a town near the Polish-Ukrainian border today as Russia continues its bombardment. The number of signed contracts to buy existing homes in the US declined 4.1% in February of 2022, following an upwardly revised 5.8% drop in January and surprising analysts that expected it to rebound 1%. It marks the fourth straight monthly decline, dragged by a persistent shortage of properties, while activity could remain sluggish amid increasing mortgage rates and high house prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.97% to settled at 6505 while prices down -484 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68387 and below same could see a test of 67938 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69474, a move above could see prices testing 70112.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 67938-70112.
Silver fell as Treasury yields ticked higher and a more hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve.
Fed’s Powell said the U.S. central bank must move "expeditiously" to raise rates and possibly "more aggressively".
Fed’s Evans said he's "comfortable" with raising rates in quarter-point increments, while being "open" to a 50 basis-point move if needed.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 8618 as the United States and allies considered releasing more oil from storage to cool markets. Kazazkstan said it expects the CPC to resume shipping crude within a month, but added it may reroute some oil towards tankers on the Caspian Sea and pipelines going to Russia's Samara and to China. The International Energy Agency (IEA) held a ministerial meeting to formally approve the release of 60 million barrels of oil reserves. South Korea will release 4.42 million barrels of oil reserves in accordance with the original agreement. Brazil and Canada decided to increase their oil production to 300,000 barrels per day by the end of this year, contributing to stabilising energy markets. OPEC sources said the producer group's officials believe that a possible EU ban on Russian oil would hurt consumers and that it had conveyed its concerns to Brussels. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week to March 18 to 413.4 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 1.2 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs rose by 277,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. Refinery utilization rates rose by 0.7 percentage points in the week. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.31% to settled at 7541 while prices down -48 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 8377 and below same could see a test of 8136 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8787, a move above could see prices testing 8956.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 8136-8956.
Crude oil dropped as the United States and allies considered releasing more oil from storage to cool markets.
The IEA approved the release of 60 million barrels of oil reserves
Kazazkstan said it expects the CPC to resume shipping crude within a month


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.83% at 422.2 on forecasts cold weather next week will cause utilities to pull gas out of storage to meet an increase in heating demand. U.S. prices also gained on Friday as rising global demand for gas to replace Russian fuel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine keeps U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs and European gas prices about seven times over U.S. futures. The United States is already producing LNG near full capacity. So, no matter how high global gas prices rise, it will not be able to export much more of the supercooled fuel. European gas was trading around $32 per mmBtu on Friday. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.3 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.3 bcfd this week to 103.4 bcfd next week before sliding to 98.6 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -71.91% to settled at 858 while prices up 7.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 411.2 and below same could see a test of 400.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 429.1, a move above could see prices testing 436.1.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 400.3-436.1.
Natural gas climbed on forecasts cold weather next week will cause utilities to pull gas out of storage to meet an increase in heating demand.
That U.S. price decline came even though rising global demand for gas to replace Russian fuel
EIA said U.S. utilities pulled 51 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 18.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.43% at 818.9 as MMG Ltd said it has secured approval from Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines to expand its Las Bambas copper mine despite ongoing outrage from local indigenous communities. Located in the Apurimac region of southern Peru, the Chinese-owned mine has been a flashpoint of protests and road blockades since it started operations in 2016, which have caused it to frequently curtail its operations. The global market is already tight, with exchange stocks near 16-year lows, and a ban on Russian metal could lead to further supply disruptions and further price pressures. On the flip side, the rising global production should ease worries about the market deficit. The ICSG said mine production grew by around 2.3% in 2021, driven by higher output from Peru, the world’s second-largest copper-producing country, and Indonesia. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 21.2 percent from last Friday, the exchange said. The global world refined copper market showed a 92,000 tonnes deficit in December, compared with a 123,000 tonnes deficit in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the 12 months of the year, the market saw a shortage of 475,000 tonnes compared with a 484,000 tonne shortfall a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.14% to settled at 3510 while prices down -3.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 814.8 and below same could see a test of 810.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 825.3, a move above could see prices testing 831.6.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 810.6-831.6.
Copper prices dropped as Peru approves expansion of Las Bambas copper mine despite protests
The ICSG said mine production grew by around 2.3% in 2021, driven by higher output from Peru
The global market is already tight, with exchange stocks near 16-year lows, and a ban on Russian metal could lead to further supply disruptions


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.26% at 338.05 as the rising energy prices caused the market to worry about supply shortages. Russia has asked European countries to settle natural gas in rubles. International energy prices soared, so did natural gas prices, causing market concerns about metal supply. Nyrstar restarted the Auby zinc smelter in France, but stressed that high electricity prices still hinder the smelter's full production, and the restart of the smelter is more due to government subsidies. China zinc ingot social inventory across seven major markets dropped 3,600 mt from last Friday March 18 or 4,300 mt from Monday March 21 to 272,600 mt as of March 25. Domestic inventory kept falling as a whole. Generally speaking, the restrictions on transportation have not been fully lifted due to still spreading COVID. In Shanghai, arrivals were scarce as strict pandemic control measures were still in place. The inventory in Guangdong added fractionally amid rising arrivals and steady consumption. Tianjin saw falling local inventory amid stringent transportation control that kept market arrivals at a low level, as well as purchase on rigid demand across the downstream. Inventory in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin dropped 4,800 mt on week, while that across seven major markets in China fell 3,600 mt. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.91% to settled at 1027 while prices up 4.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 335.7 and below same could see a test of 333.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 339.6, a move above could see prices testing 341.2.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 333.4-341.2.
Zinc rose as the rising energy prices caused the market to worry about supply shortages.
Nyrstar restarted the Auby zinc smelter in France, but stressed that high electricity prices still hinder the smelter's full production
China zinc ingot social inventory across seven major markets dropped 3,600 mt from last Friday


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 7.31% at 2680.3 as disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and higher energy costs triggered concerns over global supply. Prices of metals extended gains after Russia said it would seek payment in roubles for gas sales from "unfriendly" countries, sending European gas prices soaring and fuelling worries about more smelter closures. Market supply has been relatively tight for lack of imported goods for quite some time. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) benchmark nickel surged 15% to hit its upper trading limit, reversing direction and climbing for the first time since trading resumed last week. LME benchmark nickel slumped for several days in very low volumes and repeatedly hit its lower trading limits after trade was restarted after a break to calm the market. The global nickel market saw a surplus of 6,000 tonnes in January compared with a deficit of 5,300 tonnes in the same period last year, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Overall there was a deficit in the nickel market of 157,100 tonnes last year compared with a surplus of 103,700 tonnes in 2021, Lisbon-based INSG added. Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine sparked concerns over the metal supply and supercharged existing upward momentum in the market. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.93% to settled at 199 while prices up 182.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2539.4 and below same could see a test of 2398.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2772, a move above could see prices testing 2863.6.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2398.4-2863.6.
Nickel prices climbed as disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and higher energy costs triggered concerns over global supply.
LME nickel surged 15% to hit its upper trading limit, reversing direction and climbing for the first time since trading resumed last week.
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.94% at 291.45 amid risks of supply shortages amid the heightened Russia-Ukraine war and dwelling exchange inventories. Australia supplies almost 20% of Russia’s alumina, the key ingredient for producing aluminum, and the move aims to inflict more economic pain for the Krelim over its decision to invade Ukraine. Stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses were at 704,850 tonnes, its lowest level since 2007, while those in Shanghai exchange warehouses fell 4.2% to 333,823 tonnes last week. China's aluminium imports in the first two months of 2022 fell 26.2% from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Arrivals of unwrought aluminium and products – which include primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium – totalled 336,007 tonnes in January and February combined, compared with 455,128 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Customs also gave the January import figure as 193,177 tonnes, down 37.3% on year, and the February figure as 142,829 tonnes, down 2.6%. The December total was 243,729 tonnes. Germany-based TRIMET will over coming weeks cut aluminium production at its Essen facility by 50% because of higher energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, the company said. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.71% to settled at 2389 while prices up 2.7 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 288 and below same could see a test of 284.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 294, a move above could see prices testing 296.5.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 284.5-296.5.
Aluminium rose amid risks of supply shortages amid the heightened Russia-Ukraine war and dwelling exchange inventories.
Stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses were at 704,850 tonnes, its lowest level since 2007
China's aluminium imports in the first two months of 2022 fell 26.2% from a year earlier


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 1052.5 on profit booking after prices gained as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 8.6 Rupees to end at 1180.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.94% to settled at 998 while prices down -3.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1044 and below same could see a test of 1035.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1062.9, a move above could see prices testing 1073.4.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1035.6-1073.4.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 8.6 Rupees to end at 1180.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
# However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 8816 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. T Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. he farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8690 Rupees gained 19.4 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.38% to settled at 11300 while prices up 2 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8722 and below same could see a test of 8626 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8932, a move above could see prices testing 9046.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8626-9046.
Turmeric settled flat as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8690 Rupees gained 19.4 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 21675 as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.2 Rupees to end at 21215.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.78% to settled at 10620 while prices down -90 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21440 and below same could see a test of 21205 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21880, a move above could see prices testing 22085.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21205-22085.
Jeera dropped as export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations.
However, there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.2 Rupees to end at 21215.8 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.25% at 41870 amid depleting stock in international markets due to rains, cultivation of cotton in lesser area and inferior quality of the produce in other markets. The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption has estimated the current cotton season (October 2021 to September 2022) to close with a stock of 45.46 lakh bales. The Committee estimated the total consumption by textile mills to be 329 lakh bales, including 305 lakh bales by non-SSI mills, and exports at 40 lakh bales. The production is expected to be about 340 lakh bales. As against a total supply of 430.46 lakh bales (including opening stock and imports), the demand is likely to be 385 lakh bales. The Haryana agriculture department has set a target of increasing area under cotton production up to 19.25 lakh acre in the 2022 Kharif season even though during the previous season, cotton was grown on 15.90 lakh acre. Atul Ganatra, president of Cotton Association of India said that demand in local mills is good and new spinning mills are coming up. Demand is good but the profit that spinning mills were earnings has been reduced and now they will be at par or there will be a loss to the spinning mills at a high rate of cotton. In spot market, Cotton gained by 460 Rupees to end at 40980 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.67% to settled at 5908 while prices up 920 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 41300 and below same could see a test of 40720 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 42180, a move above could see prices testing 42480.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 40720-42480.
Cotton prices rose amid depleting stock in international markets due to rains, cultivation of cotton in lesser area and inferior quality
The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption has estimated the current cotton to close with a stock of 45.46 lakh bales.
The Haryana agriculture department has set a target of increasing area under cotton production up to 19.25 lakh acre
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 460 Rupees to end at 40980 Rupees.

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