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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 51379 as the dollar strengthened in the wake of comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that opened the door for the central bank to take a more aggressive monetary policy path. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said he sees six rate hikes this year and two for 2023, a more dovish stance than most of his colleagues as he has concerns about the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the U.S. economy. But the dollar gained ground after Powell said the central bank must move "expeditiously" to bring too-high inflation under control, and will, if needed, use bigger-than-usual interest rate hikes to do so. Markets have been volatile over the past month as the situation in Ukraine has escalated, increasing the prices of commodities such as oil and putting upward pressure on already high inflation. The Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points last week for the first time since 2018 as it attempts to combat rising prices while trying to avoid a policy error which could send the U.S. economy into recession. Investors are now focused on the potential speed and size of future rate hikes. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.59% to settled at 7140 while prices down -276 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51037 and below same could see a test of 50694 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51836, a move above could see prices testing 52292.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50694-52292.
Gold dropped as dollar strengthened after Fed’s Powell that opened the door for the central bank to take a more aggressive monetary policy path.
Fed Powell said the central bank must move "expeditiously" to bring too-high inflation under control.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said he sees six rate hikes this year and two for 2023


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.96% at 67692 as an uptick in US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar spooked investors away from the metal. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank must move "expeditiously" to raise interest rates to rein in lofty inflation, possibly "more aggressively", to keep an upward price spiral from getting entrenched. Federal Reserve policymakers will take the necessary steps to get inflation down even if that means increasing interest rates by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings, Chair Powell said in comments to a National Association for Business Economics conference in Washington. Powell also repeated that the Fed's reductions to its massive balance sheet could start by May. The Fed raised the target for the fed funds rate by a quarter-point to 0.25%-0.5% during its March 2022 meeting for the first time in three years and signaled ongoing rate hikes ahead. The Fed now sees rate hikes at each of the six remaining meetings this year, with the fed funds rate reaching 1.9% by year’s end. U.S. Treasury yields have risen to their highest level since 2019 and Euro zone government bond yields followed suit after Powell's hawkish comments. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.3% to settled at 6313 while prices down -657 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66864 and below same could see a test of 66037 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68804, a move above could see prices testing 69917.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 66037-69917.
Silver dropped as an uptick in US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar spooked investors away from the metal.
U.S. Treasury yields have risen to their highest level since 2019
Federal Reserve policymakers will take the necessary steps to get inflation down


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.94% at 8409 as prices drew support from threats to supply as Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group attacked Saudi energy and water desalination facilities over the weekend. Targeting Russian energy exports is a divisive choice for the 27-nation EU, which relies on Russia for 40 percent of its gas. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck added his voice to Western appeals for OPEC to increase oil production and said Gulf states should not profit from global sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. OPEC heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE have resisted Western calls, including from the United States, to use their spare oil output capacity to tame prices that have surged as the invasion prompted fears of supply disruptions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday urged consumers to travel less, share transport and drive more slowly, part of a 10-point plan to cut oil use as Russia's invasion of Ukraine deepens concerns about supply. The plan by the Paris-based grouping of 31 industrialized countries – which does not include Russia – underlines the urgency of a supply crunch brought on by sanctions and buyer aversion to Russian oil, which has raised fuel prices. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to March 15, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.71% to settled at 7497 while prices up 78 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 8163 and below same could see a test of 7916 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8671, a move above could see prices testing 8932.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7916-8932.
Crude oil gained amid threats to supply as Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group attacked Saudi energy and water desalination facilities
Germany urges OPEC to raise production, warns against profiteering from sanctions
U.S. crude inventories expected to be unchanged


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 5.77% at 392.6 on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected. The U.S. market also gained support from a 7% jump in European gas prices that should keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at record highs as Europe looks for other suppliers to replace Russian fuel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.3 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 95.8 bcfd this week to 99.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. Even though it will be cooler next week, meteorologists still forecast U.S. weather will remain milder than normal through at least early April, which should keep heating demand low enough to allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage this week – about a week earlier than usual. Gas stockpiles in Western Europe (Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands) were about 37% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.96% to settled at 4825 while prices up 21.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 377.8 and below same could see a test of 363.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 400.5, a move above could see prices testing 408.5.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 363.1-408.5.
Natural gas gained on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected.
Meteorologists forecast weather in the United States would remain milder than normal through at least early April
EIA said utilities pulled 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 11.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.04% at 814.7 as rising coronavirus cases in China clouded growth outlook for the top metals consumer, although losses were capped by jitters over supply disruption as Russia-Ukraine peace discussions failed to ease conflict. China's financial hub Shanghai reported a fifth consecutive daily record for locally transmitted COVID-19 asymptomatic cases as the highly infectious Omicron variant complicates efforts to stop the virus spreading. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank must move "expeditiously" to raise rates and possibly "more aggressively" to keep an upward price spiral from getting entrenched. Copper production in Zambia dropped to 800,696 tonnes last year from 837,996 tonnes the year before. The Zambia Chamber of Mines said the reduced output was mainly due to operational challenges arising from a lack of recapitalisation due to an unattractive mining tax regime. Traders remain cautious over reports of progress in Russia-Ukraine talks, with its effect on raw material and crude oil prices heightening fears of demand destruction and stagflation. Also, Southern Copper Corp said it was close to reaching an agreement with protesters, who have caused its Cuajone mine in Peru to halt operations for two weeks. Still, losses were limited by hopes for more stimulus in the Chinese economy and prospects of LME sanctions targeting supplies from major exporter Russia. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.61% to settled at 2571 while prices up 0.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 809.4 and below same could see a test of 804 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 820.8, a move above could see prices testing 826.8.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 804-826.8.
Copper prices settled flat as rising coronavirus cases in China clouded growth outlook for the top metals consumer
Zambia's 2021 copper production falls by 4.5%
Investors are weighing the risks of undersupply and slowing economic growth that would reduce demand


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 325.5 as SHFE zinc inventory continued to rise and increased by 1.58% to 176,507 mt in the week of March 18, setting a new high in nearly five years. LME zinc inventory entered a downward channel again after rising to a two-and-a-half-month high of 209,175 mt on December 14 last year. LME zinc inventory fell to a new low in nearly 20 months at 140,525 mt on March 14 before climbing to 144,425 mt the next day, but dropped again and stood at 142,975 mt as of now. The consumption in the three major downstream sectors - die-casting, zinc oxide and galvanising - dropped 12%, 17% and 13% respectively compared with the same period last year when the market was also impacted by the COVID. The downstream purchased zinc ingot mainly on rigid demand. The transport in Dongguan city, Guangdong province improved slightly, but was still blocked in some places. China's refined zinc imports in February were 5,507 mt, down 63.29% month-on-month and 85.24% year-on-year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. China imported 2,474 mt of refined zinc from Australia, the largest supplier, down 60.61% month-on-month and 71.02% year-on-year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.58% to settled at 649 while prices down -1.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 322.9 and below same could see a test of 320.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 328.6, a move above could see prices testing 331.8.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 320.4-331.8.
Zinc prices dropped as SHFE zinc inventory continued to rise and increased by 1.58% to 176,507 mt
LME zinc inventory entered a downward channel again after rising to a two-and-a-half-month high of 209,175 mt on December 14 last year.
China's February refined zinc imports plummeted on mom and yoy basis


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -5.38% at 2083 as the global nickel market saw a surplus of 6,000 tonnes in January compared with a deficit of 5,300 tonnes in the same period last year, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Overall there was a deficit in the nickel market of 157,100 tonnes last year compared with a surplus of 103,700 tonnes in 2021, Lisbon-based INSG added. Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine sparked concerns over the metal supply and supercharged existing upward momentum in the market. Earlier this month, prices briefly topped the $100,000 mark amid a vicious short squeeze as China’s Tsingshan Holding Group, one of the world’s top producers, bought large amounts to reduce its short bets on the metal. The physical market, which is made up of end-users and producers, use LME settlement prices as a reference for their contracts to buy and sell nickel. The disorderly LME market has left some traders questioning whether participants might look for alternative venues. The rapid rise in prices caught out some large players who were betting on a decline in nickel prices. To cut their positions and limit their losses, they bought large amounts of the metal last week, triggering the spike above $100,000 a tonne. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.18% to settled at 216 while prices down -118.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1977.6 and below same could see a test of 1872.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2214.2, a move above could see prices testing 2345.4.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1872.2-2345.4.
Nickel dropped as the global nickel market saw a surplus of 6,000 tonnes in January
Overall there was a deficit in the nickel market of 157,100 tonnes last year compared with a surplus of 103,700 tonnes in 2021.
China’s Tsingshan Holding Group, one of the world’s top producers, bought large amounts to reduce its short bets on the metal.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 280.25 as the COVID-19 pandemic situation has constrained domestic consumption, while the hawkish signal from the US Fed also served as a bearish factor for the metal market. Australia banned the export of materials used to make the metal to Russia, which produces around 6% of global supply of the metal used in transport, packaging and construction. Global primary aluminium output fell to 5.114 million tonnes in February from 5.236 million in the same month in 2021, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production declined to 2.946 million tonnes last month versus 3.048 million in February 2021, the IAI said. German aluminium maker Trimet will cut production at its main factory in the city of Essen by half in the coming weeks, CEO Philipp Schlueter told, citing huge costs for the energy-intense production process. "Due to the further increase in energy prices as a result of the war in Ukraine, the situation has worsened dramatically. This is forcing us to make further adjustments," he was quoted as saying. A global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers premiums of $195 a tonne for April-June shipments, up 10% from the current quarter. High-frequency data showed that the inventory has been rising, and the arrivals in south China rose slightly, suppressing the bullishness to some extent. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.9% to settled at 1858 while prices down -0.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 277 and below same could see a test of 273.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 284, a move above could see prices testing 287.7.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 273.7-287.7.
Aluminium dropped as the COVID-19 pandemic situation has constrained domestic consumption
Global aluminium output falls to 5.114 mln T in February, IAI says
German aluminium maker Trimet to halve production at Essen plant


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.43% at 1062 as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 1.2 Rupees to end at 1166.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -37.94% to settled at 391 while prices up 4.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1047.8 and below same could see a test of 1033.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1075.4, a move above could see prices testing 1088.8.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1033.6-1088.8.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1.2 Rupees to end at 1166.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices rose as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 8582 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8627.5 Rupees dropped -47.5 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 13070 while prices up 52 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8508 and below same could see a test of 8434 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8628, a move above could see prices testing 8674.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8434-8674.
Turmeric gains as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8627.5 Rupees dropped -47.5 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.36% at 21270 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 131.25 Rupees to end at 20800 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.16% to settled at 11109 while prices up 490 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20610 and below same could see a test of 19950 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21630, a move above could see prices testing 21990.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 19950-21990.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
However, there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 131.25 Rupees to end at 20800 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.39% at 39760 on profit booking after prices rose amid strong demand and possible lower supplies. USDA’s weekly export sales data showed that cotton shipments reached 96% of the USDA’s marketing year estimates to 371,400 bales, which is also 5% more than that of the previous week and 34% higher from the prior 4-week average. At the same time, concerns grew over the drought conditions in West Texas on the back of lower than normal precipitation forecasts for the area. Also, USDA in its March 10th report estimated 2021/22 global cotton consumption to be 111,000 bales higher compared to last month’s projections while it sees world ending stocks 1.7 million bales lower due to smaller global production, particularly from India. Cotton production at 340.63 lakh bales for this season (October 2021-September 2022) against 352.48 lakh bales last season, as per second advance estimate, the Union Ministry for Agriculture and Farmers WelfareLast month, the Cotton Association of India (CAI), a body of traders, cut its crop estimates to 343.13 lakh bales from its earlier projection of 348.13 lakh bales. Speculators reduced their net long position in cotton futures on ICE U.S. in the week to March 15, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed. In spot market, Cotton gained by 390 Rupees to end at 39840 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.8% to settled at 3443 while prices down -560 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 39430 and below same could see a test of 39100 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 40180, a move above could see prices testing 40600.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 39100-40600.
Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices rose amid strong demand and possible lower supplies.
USDA’s weekly export sales data showed that cotton shipments reached 96% of the USDA’s marketing year estimates to 371,400 bales
Speculators reduced their net long position in cotton futures
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 390 Rupees to end at 39840 Rupees.

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