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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 51447 as the dollar strengthened and as some of the safe-haven demand spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine cooled. The Federal Reserve raised the target for the fed funds rate by a quarter-point to 0.25%-0.5% during its March 2022 meeting, in line with expectations. Officials also signaled the Fed could soon announce a plan to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio and is ready to raise rates six more times this year to contain high inflation. Fed Chair Powell said the American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy while the probability of a recession is “not particularly elevated.” India's annual gold production could surge to 20 tonnes from a mere 1.6 tonnes if the government removes bureaucratic hurdles and encourages investment in the sector, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in a report published. Swiss exports of gold to China in February eased from the previous month's five-year high, but shipments to India recovered, Swiss customs data showed. In the first two months of this year Switzerland exported 119.9 tonnes of gold, worth about $7 billion, to mainland China and Hong Kong. Switzerland shipped 44.9 tonnes of gold to India in January and February, compared with 94.7 tonnes in the first two months of 2021. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.98% to settled at 8104 while prices down -200 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51301 and below same could see a test of 51154 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51654, a move above could see prices testing 51860.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51154-51860.
Gold dipped as the dollar strengthened and as some of the safe-haven demand spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine cooled.
The Federal Reserve raised the target for the fed funds rate by a quarter-point to 0.25%-0.5%
India's gold output could rise multifold if hurdles removed


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 67876 as the prospect of further interest rate increases outweighed haven demand spurred by geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Fed said it was raising borrowing costs along expected lines, while acknowledging the challenges presented by soaring inflation. Investors continued monitoring the ongoing ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine after officials from both countries said their positions remained far apart as the war entered its fourth week. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Russia's debt rating to CC from CCC- saying that the country's debt is highly vulnerable to nonpayment amid international sanctions. U.S. home sales fell more than expected in February as rising mortgage rates and a perennial shortage of houses priced out first-time buyers from the market. Existing home sales dropped 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million units last month, the National Association of Realtors said on Friday. Though the decline reversed January's jump, sales remained above their pre-pandemic level. Sales fell in all four regions. Home resales account for the bulk of U.S. home sales. They declined 2.4% on a year-on-year basis in February. Mortgage rates surged in February, with the 30-year fixed rate approaching a three-year high. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.17% to settled at 5930 while prices down -570 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67516 and below same could see a test of 67156 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68373, a move above could see prices testing 68870.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 67156-68870.
Silver dropped as the prospect of further interest rate increases outweighed haven demand spurred by geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
Fed said it was raising borrowing costs along expected lines, while acknowledging the challenges presented by soaring inflation.
Investors continued monitoring the ongoing ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.97% at 7864 as there was slim progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, raising the spectre of tighter sanctions and a prolonged disruption to oil supply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) urged consumers to travel less, share transport and drive more slowly, part of a 10-point plan to cut oil use as Russia's invasion of Ukraine deepens concerns about supply. The plan by the Paris-based grouping of 31 industrialized countries – which does not include Russia – underlines the urgency of a supply crunch brought on by sanctions and buyer aversion to Russian oil, which has raised fuel prices. The recommendations – which include lower speed limits, working from home, car-free days in cities, cheaper public transport and more carpooling – could cut oil demand by 2.7 million barrels a day within four months, the IEA said. U.S. crude stocks rose surprisingly in the last week, and stocks at the key inventory hub were also higher, a bit of a salve for the U.S. oil market that has become increasingly concerned about low inventories. Crude inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels in the week to March 11 to 415.9 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, compared with expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel drop. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 24.51% to settled at 5345 while prices up 152 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7745 and below same could see a test of 7627 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7937, a move above could see prices testing 8011.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7627-8011.
Crude oil gained as there was slim progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine
IEA said a decline in oil demand due to higher prices would not offset a shut-in of Russian oil supplies.
OPEC+ compliance with oil production cuts rises to 136% in Feb, from 129% in Jan


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.33% at 370.1 with a slow rise in output and forecasts for less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage next week – about a week earlier than usual. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 11. That was more than the 73-bcf decrease analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 16 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 65 bcf. Last week's withdrawal cut stockpiles to 1.440 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 17.4% below the five-year average of 1.744 tcf for this time of the year. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.1 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. With milder spring weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 109.6 bcfd this week to 96.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.99% to settled at 5301 while prices down -5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 366.5 and below same could see a test of 362.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 375, a move above could see prices testing 379.9.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 362.9-379.9.
Natural gas eased with a slow rise in output and forecasts for less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected
EIA said utilities pulled 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 11.
Last week's withdrawal cut stockpiles to 1.440 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 17.4% below the five-year average of 1.744 tcf for this time of the year.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 816.05 as supply worries reemerged in Peru, the world's second-biggest metal producer. Operations at Southern Copper's Cuajone mine in Peru have been suspended for two weeks as protesters continue to block the company's access to a water pool and other vital supplies. Keeping a lid on prices were growing demand concerns due to a renewed surge of Covid-19 infections in China. Elsewhere, the world's biggest producer Chile, recorded its lowest January output since 2011, with production sinking 15% compared to December and 7.5% from January 2021. China's refined copper production in the first two months of 2022 rose 4.5% year-on-year to 1.7 million tonnes, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. On a daily basis, average copper output stood at 28,831 tonnes over the January and February period. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 19.9 percent from last Friday, the exchange said. A union representing workers at BHP's sprawling Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, threatened a work stoppage over what it claims are breaches in its collective contract. Escondida's Union 1 requested an urgent meeting with company executives to discuss its complaints over promotions, saying many conditions in the contract were not being upheld by the firm. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.13% to settled at 3063 while prices up 6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 811.7 and below same could see a test of 807.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 820, a move above could see prices testing 823.9.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 807.3-823.9.
Copper prices rose as supply worries reemerged in Peru
Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 19.9 percent from last Friday
China Jan – Feb refined copper output jumps 4.5% y/y


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 319.9 as the market supply has been tightened due to repeating COVID in China that disturbed the logistics to some extent. Total zinc inventories across seven markets stood at 276,200 mt as of Friday March 18, down 9,000 mt from March 11, down 9,500 mt from March 14. Domestic inventory reduced. Overall, transport was hampered due to the pandemic. Among them, the arrivals of Shanghai market relatively reduced. Downstream transactions were improved while the zinc prices were at low and inventory reduced. Arrivals also reduced in Guangdong market, coupled with consumption, the overall inventory decreased. In the case of restricted arrivals in Tianjin market, consumption was not improved, but inventory declined slightly. Inventories in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin dropped 8,000 mt, and inventories across seven markets decreased 9,000 mt. Bank of England raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to pre-pandemic level, and warned that if energy prices remain high, inflation could reach double-digit level by the end of the year. Knot, European Central Bank Governor, also suggested the possibility of raising the rate twice this year. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 37,300 tonnes in December from a revised shortfall of 43,100 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.61% to settled at 784 while prices up 1.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 318.4 and below same could see a test of 316.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 321.5, a move above could see prices testing 323.1.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 316.9-323.1.
Zinc gains as the market supply has been tightened due to repeating COVID in China that disturbed the logistics to some extent.
Total zinc inventories across seven markets stood at 276,200 mt as of Friday March 18, down 9,000 mt from March 11
The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 37,300 tonnes in December from a revised shortfall of 43,100 tonnes a month earlier


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -6.03% at 2455 as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed supply-disruption fears, while demand concerns in top consumer China also weighed on the market. The refined nickel supply was still insufficient for the demand last week. China's producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8% on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, easing from 9.1% growth in January. China's efforts to stabilise commodity prices face new challenges due to high prices for coal, natural gas and iron ore because of COVID-19, a monetary policy shift in big economies and geopolitical conflicts, an official at the state economic planner said. Japan's strong economic growth in the final quarter of 2021 was downgraded in a revised estimate, while pressures from record COVID-19 infections and rising energy costs are heightening risks of a contraction this quarter. The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed in a matter of hours to records of over $100,000 a tonne. China's Shanghai Futures Exchange will suspend the trading of some nickel contracts for one day, beginning from the night trading session on March 9. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.78% to settled at 256 while prices down -157.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2400.6 and below same could see a test of 2346.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2508.6, a move above could see prices testing 2562.3.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2346.3-2562.3.
Nickel dropped as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed supply-disruption fears
Demand concerns in top consumer China also weighed on the market.
The refined nickel supply was still insufficient for the demand last week.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 272.2 as supply risks lingered with talks between Russia and Ukraine showing no signs of material progress, while market sentiment was also buoyed by hopes of more economic support in top consumer China. Japan and Australia slapped fresh sanctions on Russian entities as punishment for Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which the West says has been stalled by staunch resistance but continues to take a devastating toll on civilians. China's aluminium imports in the first two months of 2022 fell 26.2% from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Arrivals of unwrought aluminium and products – which include primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium – totalled 336,007 tonnes in January and February combined, compared with 455,128 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Customs also gave the January import figure as 193,177 tonnes, down 37.3% on year, and the February figure as 142,829 tonnes, down 2.6%. The December total was 243,729 tonnes. China, the world's biggest aluminium producer and consumer, imported a record amount of the base metal in 2021 – 3.2 million tonnes – as higher prices of Shanghai aluminium versus international prices through most of 2021 made imports favourable. In comparison, China's exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products rose 22% on an annual basis to 1.03 million tonnes in January-February. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.76% to settled at 2196 while prices up 1.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 270.1 and below same could see a test of 268 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 275.1, a move above could see prices testing 278.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 268-278.
Aluminium prices edged higher as supply risks lingered with talks between Russia and Ukraine showing no signs of material progress
Market sentiment was also buoyed by hopes of more economic support in top consumer China.
China Jan – Feb aluminium imports fall 26.2% on year


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 1036 as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 2.4 Rupees to end at 1137.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.69% to settled at 739 while prices up 2.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1032.3 and below same could see a test of 1028.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1038.2, a move above could see prices testing 1040.5.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1028.7-1040.5.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 2.4 Rupees to end at 1137.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil settled firm as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.72% at 8658 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8820 Rupees dropped -86.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.43% to settled at 12925 while prices up 62 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8556 and below same could see a test of 8452 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8722, a move above could see prices testing 8784.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8452-8784.
Turmeric gains as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8820 Rupees dropped -86.65 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.59% at 20815 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 74.9 Rupees to end at 20536 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.43% to settled at 12039 while prices up 325 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20490 and below same could see a test of 20170 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21020, a move above could see prices testing 21230.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20170-21230.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
However, there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 74.9 Rupees to end at 20536 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.11% at 39210 as cotton production at 340.63 lakh bales for this season (October 2021-September 2022) against 352.48 lakh bales last season, as per second advance estimate, the Union Ministry for Agriculture and Farmers WelfareLast month, the Cotton Association of India (CAI), a body of traders, cut its crop estimates to 343.13 lakh bales from its earlier projection of 348.13 lakh bales. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has pegged India’s cotton production at 339.38 lakh bales, accounting for 22 per cent of the global production. The USDA said though the area under cotton had dropped to a five-year low of 124 lakh hectares, a higher yield of 465 kg/ha had helped bridge the gap a bit. Currently, cotton imports attract a five per cent basic customs duty and five per cent agriculture infrastructure cess. The textiles industry has been urging the Government to scrap the import duty, particularly after cotton prices skyrocketed this season. Arrival of cotton has dropped to 75,000 bales (170 kg each) across the country, but what is of concern is that there is a huge variation in the quality of the cotton coming to the markets. The USDA said cotton consumption is projected at 332 lakh bales, including small scale units, a record as the textiles industry has expanded. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -30 Rupees to end at 38100 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.91% to settled at 4884 while prices up 430 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 38880 and below same could see a test of 38540 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 39420, a move above could see prices testing 39620.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 38540-39620.
Cotton prices gains as cotton production at 340.63 lakh bales for this season against 352.48 lakh bales last season
Arrival of cotton has dropped to 75,000 bales (170 kg each) across the country
The USDA said cotton consumption is projected at 332 lakh bales
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -30 Rupees to end at 38100 Rupees.

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