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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 56083 as investors awaited the release of minutes of the meeting of the U.S Federal Reserve for additional clues on the rate outlook. Following hawkish rhetoric from several Fed officials in recent days, investors are pricing in the federal funds rate climbing to around 5.3 percent in June. Strong business activity data, following recent robust data on retail sales, the labor market and manufacturing production led investors to anticipate higher rates for longer. The World Gold Council (WGC) sees India’s gold demand witnessing a sharp upswing to top 800 tonnes this year despite the headline inflation being expected to remain far more stubborn across several economies. India’s gold consumption in calendar year stood at about 770 tonnes, weighed down by sharp increase in yellow metal prices on the back of geo-political tensions sparked by Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising inflation. Despite strong monetary tightening by major central banks across the world, the headline inflation continued to be much above the comfort zones of monetary authorities in several countries including the US and India. Money markets expect the U.S. central bank to raise benchmark rates above 5% by May and remain above 5% through the year. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.68% to settle at 11871 while prices are down -85 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 55941 and below same could see a test of 55800 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56309, a move above could see prices testing 56536.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55800-56536.
* Gold prices remained in range as investors awaited the release of minutes of the meeting of the U.S Federal Reserve for additional clues on the rate outlook.
* A sharp retreat in domestic prices boosted retail demand for physical gold in India.
* BCA Research said intensifying geopolitical conflict could provide critical support for gold and push prices exceed $2,000/ounce.


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.93% at 65438 as expectations of higher interest rates continued to pressure bullion demand. Hotter-than-expected PMI data in the United States signaled that the economy hadn't slowed, backing forecasts about further funds rate hikes from the Fed. Tight monetary settings also hampered demand for the metal as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, mainly reflected in the aggressive declines in solar panel equities. Still, low stockpiles of main commodity exchanges limited the decline for silver. U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February, reaching its highest level in eight months, according to a survey, which also showed inflation subsiding. Other data showed U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 12 years in January, but the pace of decline slowed. Money markets expect the U.S. central bank to raise benchmark rates above 5% by May and remain above 5% through the year. Market participants have been worried that the US central bank will tackle a hotter-than-expected economy by increasing interest rates more than it previously anticipated. The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany increased to an eight-month high of 91.1 in February of 2023, from a downwardly revised 90.1 in January, compared to forecasts of 91.2. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.3% to settle at 12584 while prices are down -614 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65063 and below same could see a test of 64687 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65974, a move above could see prices testing 66509.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 64687-66509.
* Silver dropped as expectations of higher interest rates continued to pressure bullion demand.
* Several Fed officials signalled that more rate hikes were needed to bring inflation down to the central bank's 2% target.
* Investor attention will be on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting minutes and U.S. GDP data.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.3% at 6174 as fears of a demand-sapping global recession continued to hang over the market. Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5% of its output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products over the invasion of Ukraine. Russia is part of the OPEC+ producer group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, which agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million bpd until the end of 2023. Russia's oil output so far in February has been in line with production in previous months, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. "On the whole, the oil and gas complex is functioning normally now, oil production is at the level of previous months," Novak said. China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) released a research report saying that the growth rate forecast for China's oil demand in 2023 in the annual outlook is raised. It is expected that the apparent consumption in 2023 may reach 13.74 million bbl/day, up 6.2% year-on-year, which is about 800,000 bbl/day more than the demand in 2022. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 74.01% to settle at 11008 while prices are down -211 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6100 and below same could see a test of 6027 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6308, a move above could see prices testing 6443.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6027-6443.
* Crude oil dropped as concern about a demand-denting global economic slowdown outweighed supply curbs.
* Russia's Feb oil output at same level as previous months – Novak
* CICC raises Chinese oil demand growth forecast to 13.74 million bbl/day


Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 6.99% at 186.7 on forecasts for colder weather than previously expected and as investors covered short positions following steep declines. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) pointed out in its "Short-Term Energy Outlook" that January temperatures in the United States were the warmest since 2006, reducing natural gas consumption. Report from the EIA showed that the production of crude oil and natural gas in the seven largest shale basins in the United States is expected to rise to a record high in March this year. In addition, although Freeport, a major U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, has partially resumed operations, the destocking of natural gas is still not as fast as in previous years, dragging down prices. Goldman Sachs, believes that the US natural gas market may enter a bear market cycle in 2023-2024. Prices have yet to form a firm bottom, and warmer weather and lower demand for heating could push gas prices further lower. Looking across the Atlantic, natural gas prices in Europe have also fallen for days, with Dutch TTF natural gas futures for March delivery down 2.4% on the day to 48.655 euros per million British thermal units, the lowest level since August 2021. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -46.34% to settle at 8850 while prices are up 12.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 170.1 and below same could see a test of 153.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.8, a move above could see prices testing 206.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 153.4-206.8.
* Natural gas rose on forecasts for colder weather than previously expected and as investors covered short positions following steep declines.
* US LNG exporter Freeport resumed shipments and flows from Norway are rebounding after recent outages, which should help to refill storage
* The latest EIA data showed US stockpiles were at 2.266 bcf as of February 10, 328 bcf higher than last year


Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.19% at 784.55 weighed down by a firmer dollar as investors gird for higher and longer interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve, while the loss was limited by an outlook of improving demand from top consumer China. Investors continued to monitor the extent of improved Chinese purchasing after the country’s economic reopening, as new home sales grew for a third straight week in 16 major cities. The world's refined copper market saw a three tonne surplus in December, compared with a deficit of 93,000 tonnes in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output and consumption in December were about 2.2 million tonnes. In 2022, the market was in a 376,000 tonne deficit compared with a 455,000 tonne deficit in the previous 12-month period, the ICSG said. India’s copper demand increased 27.5% in 2022. Copper is an important metal to promote the green transformation. After India became a net importer of copper in 2018, the country's green transformation is facing the problem of copper shortage. According to BQ Prim, India may fail to achieve its 30% EV vision by 2030 due to copper shortages. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.65% to settle at 3806 while prices are down -1.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 780.9 and below same could see a test of 777 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 787, a move above could see prices testing 789.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 777-789.2.
* Copper prices slipped weighed down by a firmer dollar as investors gird for higher and longer interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve
* Global refined copper market in small surplus in December – ICSG
* India’s copper demand increased 27.5% in 2022


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 273.35 as concerns over tepid consumption in top consumer China dented risk sentiment, even as traders and investors hope for a rebound in demand. Traders were also reassessing the potential for a supply rebound and a return to zinc surplus after two years of shortfalls. The idled zinc smelter capacity is expected to restart, with Europe's winter energy crisis abating and power prices falling. Previously, high European power prices have caused the idling of three zinc smelters with a combined capacity of around 465,000 tonnes and led to many others operating at reduced rates. Chinese smelters are also powering up capacity thanks to abundant supplies of raw materials and the resulting healthy processing fees. More Chinese zinc downstream factories have relaunched production with some restocking after the country's 2023 Lunar New Year holiday from January 21-27. The latest data showed LME zinc inventory was flat at 29,850 mt after hitting a multi-year low of 16,225 mt. Zinc's early-year rally has quickly fizzled out as the market prices in a looming supply surge. With Europe's winter energy crisis abating and power prices falling, there are growing expectations that idled zinc smelter capacity will restart. The abrupt price turnaround this month is the market reassessing the potential for a significant supply recovery and a return to zinc surplus after two years of shortfall. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.08% to settle at 2407 while prices are down -2.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 271 and below same could see a test of 268.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 275.7, a move above could see prices testing 278.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 268.6-278.
* Zinc dropped as concerns over tepid consumption in China dented risk sentiment
* Traders were also reassessing the potential for a supply rebound and a return to zinc surplus after two years of shortfalls.
* The idled zinc smelter capacity is expected to restart, with Europe's winter energy crisis abating and power prices falling.



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.58% at 211.5 pressured by weak demand in China and a rapid build-up of inventories in exchange warehouses. China's Yunnan province has asked aluminium producers to further cut their electricity usage amid a power supply crunch, potentially cutting annual aluminium output capacity by about 740,000 tonnes. The heating season has not ended, alumina production in north China, such as Shandong and Hebei are still constrained. High costs dampened the production passion of alumina refineries in Shanxi and Henan. Hence, supply in the north was relatively tight, supporting local prices. Roughly 800,000 mt of aluminium capacity in Yunnan will be cut within 10 days to combat power shortages, commencing this week. This will threaten 1.6 million mt of alumina demand and weigh on alumina prices in south-west China. Domestic aluminium output in January (31 calendar days) declined 0.6% month-on-month but increased 6.7% year-on-year to 3.42 million mt, with the daily output declining 642 mt to 110,300 mt. In light of power shortage in Guizhou province from December 2022 to January 2023, the operating aluminium capacity in January 2023 was 760,000 mt lower than that at the end of November, and 310,000 mt lower than that at the end of December after three round of power curtailment. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 26.36% to settle at 3188 while prices are down -3.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 209.7 and below same could see a test of 207.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.9, a move above could see prices testing 216.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207.9-216.3.
* Aluminum dropped pressured by weak demand in China and a rapid build-up of inventories in exchange warehouses.
* China's Yunnan province has asked aluminium producers to further cut their electricity usage.
* Roughly 800,000 mt of aluminium capacity in Yunnan will be cut within 10 days to combat power shortages


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 1027.6 on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -11.4 Rupees to end at 1172.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.59% to settle at 874 while prices are down -0.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1025.1 and below same could see a test of 1022.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1030, a move above could see prices testing 1032.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1022.6-1032.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -11.4 Rupees to end at 1172.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 7040 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7063.05 Rupees dropped -65.75 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.16% to settle at 12535 while prices are down -56 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6958 and below same could see a test of 6876 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7124, a move above could see prices testing 7208.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6876-7208.
* Turmeric prices seen pressure as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Pressure also seen as farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7063.05 Rupees dropped -65.75 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 3.45% at 31315 on low level buying after prices seen pressure as harvesting have started in the Cumin growing regions and it is in process which may get complete by the end of this month. As a result, new crop arrivals likely to enter in bulk quantities from last week of Feb or first week of March in the spot market. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Early sown crop has harvested and its arrivals in the Unjha benchmark are reported at 150-250 bags (15%-20% moisture content) on an average daily basis. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 730.15 Rupees to end at 30752.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.94% to settle at 4098 while prices are up 1045 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 30460 and below same could see a test of 29600 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31950, a move above could see prices testing 32580.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29600-32580.
* Jeera gained on low level buying after prices seen pressure as new crop arrivals have started from some major producing centers
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 730.15 Rupees to end at 30752.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

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