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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.09% at 52304 on hopes for progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields surged as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates at a two-day event later this week. Euro zone finance ministers are likely to endorse the European Commission's view that fiscal policy should move from supportive to neutral in 2023, but that they must be ready with more cash should the war in Ukraine make it necessary. Finance ministers from the 19 countries sharing the euro meet on Monday to discuss their fiscal stance next year as Russia's invasion of Ukraine increased uncertainty and risks to EU economic growth that is rebounding after the pandemic. Physical gold dealers in India were forced to offer the steepest discount in six years to lure customers put off by a jump in domestic prices, with some people in top Asian hubs selling their bullion to cash in on the rally. The price surge hammered demand and prompted dealers to offer discounts as high as $77 an ounce over official domestic prices – inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies – versus $27 last week. In China, discounts widened to $2-$4 an ounce over global benchmark rates compared with last week's range of a $0.8 premium to $2 discount. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.83% to settled at 9446 while prices down -574 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52024 and below same could see a test of 51744 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52685, a move above could see prices testing 53066.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51744-53066.
Gold prices dropped on hopes for progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine
U.S. Treasury 10-yr. yields climb
Euro zone to back broadly neutral, but flexible 2023 fiscal stance amid Ukraine war


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -2.17% at 68844 as hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine talks lifted bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.08 percent, its highest point since July 2019 as focus shifted to the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and a slew of central bank meetings due this week. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said that Russia was showing signs it might be willing to have substantive negotiations over Ukraine. Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said that Russia was "beginning to talk constructively. The focus also remains on major central bank meetings this week amid inflation risks from commodity supply disruptions. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by at least 25 basis points when it hands down its decision. Similarly, the Bank of England is expected to hike rates for the third time since December when it delivers its rate decision on Thursday. Investors have been monitoring developments surrounding the war in Ukraine while refraining from placing big bets ahead of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. Investors will also keep an eye on new forecasts for rates, inflation and the economy, given the uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine war. Meanwhile, headlines suggesting hopes for a diplomatic push for a ceasefire even as Russia intensified fighting in Kyiv overnight boosted appetite for riskier assets. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.69% to settled at 6494 while prices down -1526 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68044 and below same could see a test of 67243 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70022, a move above could see prices testing 71199.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 67243-71199.
Silver prices dipped as hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine talks lifted bond yields.
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.08 percent, its highest point since July 2019
The focus also remains on major central bank meetings this week amid inflation risks from commodity supply disruptions.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -6.07% at 7829 after International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol urged oil-producing countries to pump more to stabilise markets affected by the war in Ukraine. After an initial release of 62 million barrels, the IEA would make further releases if "conditions stay or worsen", Birol told an energy conference in Rabat. "Every responsible oil producer needs to put more oil in the market," he said via video conference. Russian output of oil and gas condensate stood at an average of 11.12 million barrels per day (bpd) from March 1-13, up from 11.06 million bpd on average in February. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to March 8, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 1,531 contracts to 284,654 during the period. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the ninth time in 10 weeks after Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove crude prices to their highest since 2008. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose 13 to 663 in the week to March 11, its highest since April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.99% to settled at 5018 while prices down -506 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7577 and below same could see a test of 7324 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8148, a move above could see prices testing 8466.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7324-8466.
Crude oil prices dropped after IEA chief Fatih Birol urged oil-producing countries to pump more to stabilise markets affected by the war in Ukraine.
IEA Executive Director Birol: The Ukraine war could affect energy markets for months.
IEA Executive Director Birol: Responsible oil producers should raise output.


Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.47% at 355.4 as cold weather was set to cut output to its lowest in a month and as near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports caused utilities to pull so much gas out of storage that stockpiles were now 16% below normal for this time of year. That increase came despite forecasts for output to rise and the weather to remain mild over the next two weeks, which should allow utilities to start adding gas back into storage in about two weeks – about a week earlier than usual. Last week's storage withdrawal cut stockpiles to 1.519 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 16.0% below the five-year (2017-2021) average of 1.809 tcf for this time of the year. That was the biggest percentage stockpiles were below normal levels since May 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.3 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, however, gas output was on track to drop to a one-month low of 91.5 bcfd on Friday as cold weather in some producing basins reduces output. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.09% to settled at 4502 while prices down -9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 347 and below same could see a test of 338.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 361.8, a move above could see prices testing 368.3.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 338.7-368.3.
Natural gas slid as output slowly rises and the weather turns milder than normal for this time of year
The U.S. EIA said utilities pulled 124 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 4.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.4 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.76% at 796.15 dragged down by demand concerns due to a renewed surge of Covid-19 inflections in China. Copper stocks held by the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9,100 mt from last Friday to 206,900 mt, a slower rate than those seen in the past weeks. In Europe however, supplies remain low as the market was mainly supplied by Russia. Elsewhere, the world's biggest producer Chile, recorded its lowest January output since 2011, with production sinking 15% compared to December and 7.5% from January 2021. Copper inventory across major Chinese markets decreased 9,100 mt from last Friday to 206,900 mt. The destocking rate slows down slightly. Two reasons contribute to the slow rate of destocking. Firstly, the overall supply in China is reduced, which is caused by the limited shipments from smelters due to COVID-19 and the continuous exports of smelters. Secondly, the cost efficiency of secondary copper rods declines, owing to the warming consumption and the narrower spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod. Looking forward to this week, the supply has not been improved obviously, while the consumption is weakened by the pandemic, thus the destocking rate will slow down this week. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.05% to settled at 3096 while prices down -14.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 789.9 and below same could see a test of 783.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 805.8, a move above could see prices testing 815.3.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 783.5-815.3.
Copper dropped dragged down by demand concerns due to a renewed surge of Covid-19 inflections in China.
Copper stocks held by the SHFE decreased by 9,100 mt from last Friday to 206,900 mt, a slower rate than those seen in the past weeks.
Chile, recorded its lowest January output since 2011, with production sinking 15% compared to December.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.99% at 315.15 as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed supply-disruption fears, while demand concerns in top consumer China also weighed on the market. Ukraine will seek to discuss a ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees with Russia after both sides reported rare progress at the weekend, despite fierce Russian bombardments. Rising coronavirus infections in China and the potential damage to manufacturing activity in the country have fuelled demand worries. Concerns about slowing growth and demand globally due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine have created discounts for cash over the three-month contracts for aluminium, copper, zinc and lead. Total zinc inventories across seven markets in China stood at 285,700 mt as of Mar 14, up 500 mt from Mar 11, down 1,300 mt from Mar 7. Domestic inventories continue to increase. In Shanghai market, arrivals were relatively stable, while the downstream resumption had not greater improved with accumulative inventory. In Guangdong market, downstream enterprises mainly destocked. Due to slight increase of arrivals, overall inventory accumulated. In Tianjin market, the market arrivals were relatively normal, while consumption gradually improved, inventory reduced. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.66% to settled at 809 while prices down -3.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 310.4 and below same could see a test of 305.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 320.4, a move above could see prices testing 325.7.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 305.7-325.7.
Zinc dropped as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed supply-disruption fears.
Demand concerns in top consumer China also weighed on the market.
Rising coronavirus infections in China and the potential damage to manufacturing activity in the country have fuelled demand worries.


Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 2815.7 as the refined nickel supply was still insufficient for the demand last week. China's producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8% on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, easing from 9.1% growth in January. China's efforts to stabilise commodity prices face new challenges due to high prices for coal, natural gas and iron ore because of COVID-19, a monetary policy shift in big economies and geopolitical conflicts, an official at the state economic planner said. Japan's strong economic growth in the final quarter of 2021 was downgraded in a revised estimate, while pressures from record COVID-19 infections and rising energy costs are heightening risks of a contraction this quarter. The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed in a matter of hours to records of over $100,000 a tonne. China's Shanghai Futures Exchange will suspend the trading of some nickel contracts for one day, beginning from the night trading session on March 9. Russia's President Vladimir Putin signed a decree restricting the import and export of goods and raw materials "to ensure the security of the Russian Federation", but specific materials were not identified. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -17.61% to settled at 276 while prices up 21.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2763.8 and below same could see a test of 2711.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2858.8, a move above could see prices testing 2901.9.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2711.9-2901.9.
Nickel recovered as the refined nickel supply was still insufficient for the demand
Shanghai exchange to resume trading of some nickel futures from March 11
The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed over $100,000 a tonne.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -4% at 271.35 as progress in diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed investor nerves, easing supply-disruption worries. China's case count is far lower than those in many other countries, its "zero-COVID" stance has led government authorities in affected regions to impose targeted lockdowns, conduct mass testing, shut schools and suspend public transport to suppress contagion as quickly as possible. Ukrainian negotiators suggested Ukraine and Russia are moving towards a compromise on signing a comprehensive and integrated agreement, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continued to de-escalate. Meanwhile, the US Fed will start raising the interest rate from March, and the Europe and the US will be challenged with potential stagflation risks, pressuring prices. According to the data released by LME, the inventory of LME aluminium surged by 119,000 mt to 880,975 mt on February 10 and then fell again. Last week, the inventory of LME aluminium continued to fall, with the latest inventory of 755,950 mt, which is the lowest level in more than 15 years. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.71% to settled at 2030 while prices down -11.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 266.2 and below same could see a test of 261.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 279.1, a move above could see prices testing 286.9.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 261.1-286.9.
Aluminium prices slipped as progress in diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed investor nerves, easing supply worries.
China shuts down a city of 17.5m people (Shenzen) due to COVID-19.
The production has not been affected from amid resurging pandemic has greatly constrained the logistics


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 1029 on profit booking after prices rallied as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -12.3 Rupees to end at 1132.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.17% to settled at 857 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1020.8 and below same could see a test of 1012.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1038.5, a move above could see prices testing 1048.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1012.6-1048.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -12.3 Rupees to end at 1132.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil settled flat on profit booking after prices rallied as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 8788 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8906.25 Rupees dropped -34.95 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.9% to settled at 12880 while prices down -78 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8718 and below same could see a test of 8648 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8902, a move above could see prices testing 9016.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8648-9016.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8906.25 Rupees dropped -34.95 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 21080 as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. However, there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -177.75 Rupees to end at 20894.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.26% to settled at 12906 while prices down -60 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20930 and below same could see a test of 20780 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21270, a move above could see prices testing 21460.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20780-21460.
Jeera settled flat as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations.
However, there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -177.75 Rupees to end at 20894.45 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.81% at 38050 on profit booking after prices gained lifted by expectations of strong demand for the natural fiber from top consumer China. China's state planner said it had issued a 400,000 tonnes quota for cotton imports with a sliding tariff rate. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net sales rose 2% from the previous week and 51% from the prior four-week average. World cotton stocks were trimmed 1.74 MMT to 84.31 MMT, the lowest in a 3-Year due to a lighter production forecast from India, from January’s forecast of 85.01million 480-pound bales and 2020-21’s Ending Stock of 88.41million 480-pound bales. The world stocks-to-use was figured at 66.3%, compared to 67.7% last month. India cotton production has fallen for a third consecutive year and is estimated at 26.5 million 480-Pound Bales for the crop year 2021-22 versus USDA’s January 2022 estimate of 27.5 million 480-pound bales and 2020-21’s production of 27.6 480-pound bales. India cotton ending stocks will fall by -40.18% to a 3-Year low at 8.04 million 480-pound bales for 2021-22, versus 13.44 million 480-pound bales in 2020-2021 and 16.18 million 480-pound bales in 2019-20. The Cotton Association of India has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 5.00 lakh bales to 34.3 million bales from its previous estimate of 34.8 million bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 620 Rupees to end at 37980 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.34% to settled at 6035 while prices down -310 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37780 and below same could see a test of 37500 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 38410, a move above could see prices testing 38760.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 37500-38760.
Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gained lifted by expectations of strong demand for the natural fiber from top consumer China.
China's state planner said it had issued a 400,000 tonnes quota for cotton imports with a sliding tariff rate.
World cotton stocks were trimmed 1.74 MMT to 84.31 MMT, the lowest in a 3-Year due to a lighter production forecast from India
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 620 Rupees to end at 37980 Rupees.

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