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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 52878 after Russian President Vladimir Putin said there had been some progress in Moscow's talks with Ukraine. investors focused on the likelihood that U.S. interest rates are set to rise, but concerns over the course of the Ukraine conflict kept safe-haven bullion on track for a weekly gain. Gold is now consolidating, with the likelihood of Fed interest rate hikes adding some pressure while investors awaited additional developments surrounding Ukraine. U.S. inflation ballooned in February, locking in expectations for a Fed rate hike, which would in turn translate into an increased opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Expectations the U.S. central bank will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by at least 25 basis points on March 16 stand at 94%. The Labor Department released a report showing a continued acceleration in the annual rate of U.S. consumer price growth in the month of February. The report showed the annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 7.9 percent in February from 7.5 percent in January, reaching the highest rate since January 1982. First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits saw a modest increase in the week ended March 5th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.18% to settled at 10249 while prices down -361 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52345 and below same could see a test of 51811 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53308, a move above could see prices testing 53737.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51811-53737.
Gold retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin said there had been some progress in Moscow's talks with Ukraine.
The likelihood of Fed interest rate hikes adding some pressure while investors awaited additional developments surrounding Ukraine.
U.S. inflation ballooned in February, locking in expectations for a Fed rate hike


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 70370 as treasury bond yields rose and the U.S. dollar strengthened against its major rivals after strong inflation data firmed bets of tighter monetary policy. Investors weighed geopolitical uncertainties against a commodity-driven rise in inflation which prompted central banks to signal willingness to tighten monetary policy sooner. The European Central Bank said Thursday it would phase out its large bond-buying program sooner than expected and paved the way for interest rate increases later this year, citing the Russia-Ukraine war which could drag on economic growth and push inflation higher. Investors are also bracing for the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week where it is set to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, with US inflation rising to a fresh 40-year high of 7.9% in February. Meanwhile, markets were kept on edge after the first round of talks between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers failed to yield a ceasefire. First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits saw a modest increase in the week ended March 5th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report showed initial jobless claims crept up to 227,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level of 216,000. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.91% to settled at 7524 while prices down -101 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69514 and below same could see a test of 68657 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70954, a move above could see prices testing 71537.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 68657-71537.
Silver edged lower as treasury bond yields rose and the U.S. dollar strengthened against its major rivals after strong inflation data firmed bets of tighter monetary policy.
Investors weighed geopolitical uncertainties against a commodity-driven rise in inflation which prompted central banks to signal willingness to tighten monetary policy sooner.
ECB said it would phase out its large bond-buying program sooner than expected and paved the way for interest rate increases later this year


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.22% at 8335 as investors weighed escalating bans on Russian oil against efforts to bring more supply to the market from other major producers. U.S. President Joe Biden is set to call for an end to normal trade relations with Russia as the Senate passed a $1.5 trillion funding bill Thursday night to keep the government running through September and bolster both humanitarian and military efforts in Ukraine. The UAE took a step back from assurances it would encourage fellow OPEC members to boost their production above their agreed quotas. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei backtracked on the ambassador's statement and said the OPEC member is committed to existing agreements with the group to boost output by only 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month. OPEC member Iran has yet to seal a nuclear deal with world powers which could release its sanctions barrels to the market, but Europe's top diplomat said talks on an almost completed accord were "paused." In addition, some OPEC+ producers, including Angola and Nigeria, have struggled to meet their production targets, limiting the group's ability to offset Russian supply losses. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.91% to settled at 6873 while prices up 181 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 8086 and below same could see a test of 7837 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8519, a move above could see prices testing 8703.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7837-8703.
Crude oil gains as investors weighed escalating bans on Russian oil against efforts to bring more supply to the market from other major producers.
The UAE took a step back from assurances it would encourage fellow OPEC members to boost their production above their agreed quotas.
Russia pledges to fulfil contractual obligations


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.38% at 364.4 as cold weather was set to cut output to its lowest in a month and as near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports caused utilities to pull so much gas out of storage that stockpiles were now 16% below normal for this time of year. That increase came despite forecasts for output to rise and the weather to remain mild over the next two weeks, which should allow utilities to start adding gas back into storage in about two weeks – about a week earlier than usual. Last week's storage withdrawal cut stockpiles to 1.519 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 16.0% below the five-year (2017-2021) average of 1.809 tcf for this time of the year. That was the biggest percentage stockpiles were below normal levels since May 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.3 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, however, gas output was on track to drop to a one-month low of 91.5 bcfd on Friday as cold weather in some producing basins reduces output. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.9% to settled at 4506 while prices up 11.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 357.2 and below same could see a test of 350 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 370, a move above could see prices testing 375.6.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 350-375.6.
Natural gas rose as cold weather was set to cut output to its lowest in a month
That increase came despite forecasts for output to rise and the weather to remain mild over the next two weeks
The U.S. EIA said utilities pulled 124 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 4.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 810.4 as copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses fell 3.7% in the week. China's copper cathode output jumped 5.8% in February from a month earlier, as major smelters ramped up production after maintenance. Copper smelters in China, made 785,900 tonnes of copper cathodes last month, up from a revised January output of 751,700 tonnes and 3.5% higher than February 2021. The rising output came as most producers had no maintenance outages planned for February, while environmental-related production curbs had a minor impact. In the first two months of 2022, the smelters churned out 1.53 million tonnes of copper, up 3.3% from the same period a year earlier. On the macro front, the US non-farm payrolls in February delivered greatly better than expected results, and February CPI also recorded a new high in 40 years. The inflation prompted market participants to raise their bet on Fed’s rate hike. In addition, the negotiation between Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers did not achieved any progress, and uncertainties from geopolitical tensions still exist. Signs of robust demand came against the backdrop of supply disruptions due to war in Ukraine and historically low inventories. Copper stocks held by LME were at 68,825 tonnes, the lowest level since 2005. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.9% to settled at 2892 while prices up 2.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 801.6 and below same could see a test of 792.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 820.7, a move above could see prices testing 831.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 792.8-831.
Copper prices remained supported as copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses fell 3.7% in the week.
The US non-farm payrolls in February delivered greatly better than expected results, and February CPI also recorded a new high in 40 years.
Chinese copper output rose in February.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 318.3 on profit booking after Vladimir Putin said there had been some progress in talks with Ukraine, but provided no details as Russian forces bearing down on Kyiv appeared to be regrouping near the Ukrainian capital. The State Council's press conference that, China's economic growth rate target for 2022 is set 5.5% based on the actual national conditions, and stability at high level equals to progress. This shows that the country has strong positive expectations for the current market situation. Refined zinc output in China stood at 435,000 tonnes in February, falling 14,000 tonnes from January but up 2.1% on an annual basis. Antaike said zinc production could rise to more than 445,000 tonnes to a record for March, but might fall back in April amid raw material supply concerns. Chinese markets stood at 285,200 mt as of Mar 11, up 1,000 mt from Mar 4 and down 1,800 mt from Mar 7. The inventory kept rising over the weekend. Among them, the inventory in Shanghai was stable amid arrivals of domestic products, while the inventories still accumulated due to the downstream production resumption had not been improved. The demand in Guangdong gradually increased and destocking slightly, while the downstream work resumption went on smoothly. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.01% to settled at 788 while prices down -0.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 315.1 and below same could see a test of 311.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 322.7, a move above could see prices testing 327.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 311.8-327.
Zinc dropped on profit booking after Vladimir Putin said there had been some progress in talks with Ukraine
The State Council's press conference that, China's economic growth rate target for 2022 is set 5.5% based on the actual national conditions
Refined zinc output in China stood at 435,000 tonnes in February, falling 14,000 tonnes from January but up 2.1% on an annual basis.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -4.37% at 2794.5 to release the risks after easing supply concerns, and the downstream restocked on dips. China's producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8% on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, easing from 9.1% growth in January. China's efforts to stabilise commodity prices face new challenges due to high prices for coal, natural gas and iron ore because of COVID-19, a monetary policy shift in big economies and geopolitical conflicts, an official at the state economic planner said. Japan's strong economic growth in the final quarter of 2021 was downgraded in a revised estimate, while pressures from record COVID-19 infections and rising energy costs are heightening risks of a contraction this quarter. The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed in a matter of hours to records of over $100,000 a tonne. China's Shanghai Futures Exchange will suspend the trading of some nickel contracts for one day, beginning from the night trading session on March 9. Russia's President Vladimir Putin signed a decree restricting the import and export of goods and raw materials "to ensure the security of the Russian Federation", but specific materials were not identified. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.18% to settled at 335 while prices down -127.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2731.1 and below same could see a test of 2667.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2874, a move above could see prices testing 2953.4.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2667.6-2953.4.
Nickel dropped to release the risks after easing supply concerns, and the downstream restocked on dips.
Shanghai exchange to resume trading of some nickel futures from March 11
The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed over $100,000 a tonne.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.04% at 282.65 amid heightened market volatility after uncertainty about exports from Russia pushed prices to record highs. Since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, many banks and shippers stopped handling Russian commodities, creating a supply shock that sent prices sharply higher. The jump in energy and coal prices could constrain output of energy-intensive aluminium smelters in Europe and Asia. Stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to 755,950 tonnes from almost 2 million tonnes a year earlier. Undersupply has pushed duty-paid physical premiums over the LME price sharply higher to $506 a tonne in Europe and $847 a tonne in the United States. The domestic aluminium billet inventory stood at 225,000 mt on March 10, a drop of 16,500 mt or 6.83% from a week ago. The overall decline was mainly contributed by Foshan (down 14,100 mt or 11.95%), Wuxi (down 2,000 mt or 3.28%) and Huzhou (down 2,000 mt or 6.9%). The conversion margins of aluminium billets continued to rise as aluminium prices plummeted for the third day, which attracted downstream buyers. The world's three biggest container lines, Swiss-headquartered MSC, Denmark's Maersk and France's CMA CGM, suspended cargo shipments to and from Russia in response to Western sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.06% to settled at 2153 while prices up 2.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 277.5 and below same could see a test of 272.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 286.6, a move above could see prices testing 290.5.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 272.3-290.5.
Aluminium remained supported amid heightened market volatility after uncertainty about exports from Russia.
Stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to 755,950 tonnes from almost 2 million tonnes a year earlier.
Undersupply has pushed duty-paid physical premiums over the LME price sharply higher to $506 a tonne in Europe and $847 a tonne in the United States.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 1029 on profit booking after prices rallied as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -11.4 Rupees to end at 1112.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.67% to settled at 876 while prices down -9.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1020 and below same could see a test of 1011 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1040, a move above could see prices testing 1051.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1011-1051.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -11.4 Rupees to end at 1112.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices rallied as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.52% at 8866 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. However new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9000 Rupees dropped -36.1 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.37% to settled at 12640 while prices up 46 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8568 and below same could see a test of 8270 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9064, a move above could see prices testing 9262.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8270-9262.
Turmeric gained as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
However new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9000 Rupees dropped -36.1 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 21140 on reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 272.2 Rupees to end at 21100 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.25% to settled at 12873 while prices down -65 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20960 and below same could see a test of 20785 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21375, a move above could see prices testing 21615.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20785-21615.
Jeera gained on reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year.
In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year the sowing season.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 272.2 Rupees to end at 21100 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.78% at 38360 as support seen after in its latest March report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton ending stocks in 2021-22 to 82.57 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 84.31 million bales projected in February 2022. In the world 2021/22 cotton balance sheet, ending stocks are 1.7 million bales lower than a month earlier. A 300,000-bale decrease in production accounts for some of this change, but most of the decline stems from lower beginning stocks, reflecting updated Indian consumption estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21 to reflect Indian government sources. Projected world 2021/22 consumption is marginally higher this month, up 111,000 bales, but with a 1-million-bale increase in the 2020/21 global estimate, March’s projected consumption growth rate is lower this month. World consumption is now expected to grow 2.1 percent from a year earlier, below the 2.8 percent rate forecast in February. Support also seen amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack has resulted in the crop selling at over 60 per cent higher than the minimum support price (MSP). Production of Cotton is estimated at 34.06 million bales (each of 170 kg) is higher by 1.12 million bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 million bales, as per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2021-22. In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 37140 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.03% to settled at 6513 while prices up 670 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37800 and below same could see a test of 37250 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 38650, a move above could see prices testing 38950.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 37250-38950.
Cotton gains as support seen after USDA revises down 2021-22 global cotton ending stock estimates to 82.57 million bales
In the world 2021/22 cotton balance sheet, ending stocks are 1.7 million bales lower than a month earlier.
World consumption is now expected to grow 2.1 percent from a year earlier, below the 2.8 percent rate forecast in February.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 20 Rupees to end at 37140 Rupees.

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