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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.94% at 53239 as a lack of progress with the Russia-Ukraine talks re-ignited a shift into safe-haven assets. U.S. consumer prices surged in February, culminating in the largest annual increase in 40 years, and inflation is poised to accelerate further in the months ahead as Russia's war against Ukraine drives up the costs of crude oil and other commodities. The consumer price index increased 0.8% last month after gaining 0.6% in January, the Labor Department said. In the 12 months through February, the CPI shot up 7.9%, the biggest year-on-year increase since January 1982. That followed a 7.5% jump in January and was the fifth straight month of annual CPI readings north of 6%. The European Central Bank plans to end asset purchases in the third quarter, it said on Thursday, accelerating its exit from extraordinary stimulus in a surprise move, as soaring inflation outweighs concerns about Russia's shock invasion of Ukraine. With price growth in the euro zone at a record high even before Moscow began its assault on Feb. 24, policymakers were already pushing for a quicker exit from its asset purchases, opening the way for an interest rate hike late this year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.48% to settled at 10586 while prices up 494 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52622 and below same could see a test of 52004 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53673, a move above could see prices testing 54106.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 52004-54106.
Gold bounced above the $2,000 as Ukraine worries return
U.S. consumer prices surged in February, culminating in the largest annual increase in 40 years
The consumer price index increased 0.8% last month after gaining 0.6% in January, the Labor Department said.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.29% at 70471 after reports suggested that Ukraine and Russia were making no progress towards agreeing on a ceasefire. Ukraine and Russia made little apparent progress in halting the war and bridging the vast differences between them at the first high-level talks between their foreign ministers since the Russian invasion began. Russia indicated it will continue attacks until Ukraine meets its demand. "My impression is that Russia is not in a position at this point to establish a ceasefire", Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters after the meeting lasting about 90 minutes with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Turkey. The latest CPI data showed that the annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 7.9% in February of 2022, the highest since January of 1982 but matching market expectations. The inflation was seen peaking in March but the recent developments in Europe coupled with the ongoing supply constraints, strong demand and labour shortages will likely maintain inflation elevated for longer. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased by 11 thousand to 227 thousand in the week ended March 5th, from a revised 216 thousand in the previous period and compared with market expectations of 217 thousand. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, increased by 22,025 from the previous week to 218,072. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.09% to settled at 7456 while prices up 896 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69332 and below same could see a test of 68193 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 71210, a move above could see prices testing 71949.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 68193-71949.
Silver rose after reports suggested that Ukraine and Russia were making no progress towards agreeing on a ceasefire.
The ECB said it may end asset purchases in Q3, earlier than previously expected and shortly before raising interest rates
The latest CPI data showed that the annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 7.9% in February of 2022


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.22% at 8154 as Russia pledged to fulfil contractual obligations and some traders said supply disruption concerns were overdone. The United Arab Emirates said it is committed to major producers' pact to add 400,000 barrels per day of supply monthly, hours after UAE's ambassador to Washington said his country favoured a bigger increase. Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar and OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo agreed that OPEC+ is keen to achieve supply and demand balance and ensure market stability, the Iraqi oil ministry said in a statement. The two met on the sidelines of an industry event in Houston where they discussed developments in the oil market in light of the war in Ukraine, the statement added. The United Arab Emirates will not act on its own to raise oil output. The Gulf producer remains committed to the OPEC+ alliance and only its energy ministry is responsible for oil policy. The UAE's ambassador to Washington, Yousuf Al Otaiba, had said in a statement the embassy posted on Twitter that Abu Dhabi favoured an increase in oil production and would encourage OPEC to consider higher output. But in a later statement, Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said the country believed in the value OPEC+ brought to the market. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.32% to settled at 6429 while prices down -359 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7900 and below same could see a test of 7647 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8593, a move above could see prices testing 9033.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7647-9033.
Crude oil dropped as Russia pledged to fulfil contractual obligations and some traders said supply disruption concerns were overdone.
U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week
Iraq oil minister, OPEC's Barkindo say OPEC+ keen to balance oil market


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.73% at 352.5 on forecasts for more domestic heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. LNG exports were near record highs because global oil and gas prices have soared torecord or near record highs in recent weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, stoking energy supply concerns. Russia is the world's second biggest producer of gas behind the United States. The United States is already producing LNG near full capacity, so no matter how high global gas prices rise, it would not be able to produce much more of the supercooled fuel any time soon. Since U.S. LNG exports were already near maximum capacity, some analysts said soaring global energy prices would actually cause American gas prices to decline as U.S. drillers seek more oil supplies. That would boost the amount of associated gas that comes out of the ground with that oil. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.4 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.18% to settled at 3888 while prices up 6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 345.9 and below same could see a test of 339.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 357.8, a move above could see prices testing 363.2.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 339.4-363.2.
Natural gas edged up on forecasts for more domestic heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
U.S. LNG exports were near record highs because global oil and gas prices have soared to record or near record highs
U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 807.45 amid lingering worries of supply disruptions due to war in Ukraine and historically low inventories. Copper stocks held by LME were at 68,825 tonnes, the lowest level since 2005. In February, those in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex were below 200,000 tonnes. Suppliers are especially low in Europe and although Russia accounts only for 4% of global production Europe is the primary export market. Adding to woes, the world's biggest producer Chile, recorded its lowest January output since 2011, with production sinking 15% compared to December and 7.5% from January 2021. On the other side, copper usage is surging, especially in developed countries, with increasing demand for electric vehicles, wind farms, solar panels, and power grids. Domestic copper cathode output in February stood at 835,700 mt, up 2.1% month-on-month (MoM) and 1.7% year-on-year (YoY). Overall, domestic smelters resumed the production steadily in February. After the output of several large smelters in the south returned to normal levels, the overall domestic copper cathode output rose both MoM and YoY. Only a small number of smelters in north China were affected by the Winter Olympics, reducing the output by about 15,000 mt. On the raw material side, the market still maintained relatively ample supply, and the inventory of copper concentrate among smelters stood high. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.18% to settled at 2948 while prices up 6.65 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 796.8 and below same could see a test of 786 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 817.6, a move above could see prices testing 827.6.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 786-827.6.
Copper gained amid lingering worries of supply disruptions due to war in Ukraine and historically low inventories.
Copper stocks held by LME were at 68,825 tonnes, the lowest level since 2005.
Domestic copper cathode output in February stood at 835,700 mt, up 2.1% month-on-month (MoM) and 1.7% year-on-year (YoY).


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.18% at 318.55 Zinc prices rose as China's refined zinc output stood at 458,400 mt in February, down 59,200 mt or 11.43% MoM and 2.72% YoY. From January to February 2022, the combined refined zinc output stood at 976,000 mt, a decrease of 3.7% year on year. And the output is expected to be 528,500 mt in March, a significant increase of 70,200 mt from February and up 6.37% or 31,700 mt YoY. High overseas natural gas and electricity prices were still at historical high, and zinc prices were dominated by estimated energy supply disruption and LME trade abnormalities. German industrial production rose in January as unusually mild weather allowed production in construction to recover from a slump the previous month, official data showed. The Federal Statistics Office said the country's industrial output rose 2.7% on the month after an upwardly revised increase of 1.1% in December. China's producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8% on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, easing from 9.1% growth in January. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.36% to settled at 796 while prices up 3.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 311.9 and below same could see a test of 305.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 327.7, a move above could see prices testing 336.7.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 305.1-336.7.
Zinc prices rose as China's refined zinc output stood at 458,400 mt in February, down 59,200 mt or 11.43% MoM and 2.72% YoY.
From January to February 2022, the combined refined zinc output stood at 976,000 mt, a decrease of 3.7% year on year.
High overseas natural gas and electricity prices were still at historical high, and zinc prices were dominated by estimated energy supply disruption


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -8.83% at 2922.2 to release the risks after easing supply concerns, and the downstream restocked on dips. China's producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8% on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, easing from 9.1% growth in January. China's efforts to stabilise commodity prices face new challenges due to high prices for coal, natural gas and iron ore because of COVID-19, a monetary policy shift in big economies and geopolitical conflicts, an official at the state economic planner said. Japan's strong economic growth in the final quarter of 2021 was downgraded in a revised estimate, while pressures from record COVID-19 infections and rising energy costs are heightening risks of a contraction this quarter. The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed in a matter of hours to records of over $100,000 a tonne. China's Shanghai Futures Exchange will suspend the trading of some nickel contracts for one day, beginning from the night trading session on March 9. Russia's President Vladimir Putin signed a decree restricting the import and export of goods and raw materials "to ensure the security of the Russian Federation", but specific materials were not identified. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.21% to settled at 346 while prices down -283 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2866.6 and below same could see a test of 2811.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3027.8, a move above could see prices testing 3133.5.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2811.1-3133.5.
Nickel dropped to release the risks after easing supply concerns, and the downstream restocked on dips.
Shanghai exchange to resume trading of some nickel futures from March 11
The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed over $100,000 a tonne.


Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 4.7% at 279.75 supported by persistent worries over Russian supplies of the metal used in transport, construction and packaging industries. One global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers premiums of $250 per tonne for April-June primary metal shipments, up 41% from the current quarter. On top of that, markets were already basking in the glow of continued robust demand and dwelling inventories, with the latest data showing LME warehouse inventories were at 809,750 tonnes, compared to nearly 2 million tonnes in March last year. China produced 2.95 million mt of aluminium in February (28 days), down 2.35% on the year. The daily output averaged 105,000 mt, up 1,900 mt/day on the month. The output totalled 6.15 million mt from January to February, a decrease of 3% on the year. On the supply side, more aluminium smelters resumed the production or put new capacities into production in February. Among them, the operating aluminium capacity in Yunnan rose significantly amid support from the government and China Southern Power Grid. Throughout the month, a combined capacity of 740,000 mt was resumed or newly put into produciton in Yunnan. Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Shanxi, and Guangxi steadily resumed the production in February with a total capacity of 276,000 mt. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.23% to settled at 2176 while prices up 12.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 269.8 and below same could see a test of 259.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 288.9, a move above could see prices testing 297.9.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 259.7-297.9.
Aluminium rose as uncertainty over supply from Russia ramps up price volatility.
Japanese buyers premiums of $250 per tonne for April-June primary metal shipments, up 41% from the current quarter.
The latest data showing LME warehouse inventories were at 809,750 tonnes, compared to nearly 2 million tonnes in March last year.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.83% at 1038.1 as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -11.4 Rupees to end at 1112.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.6% to settled at 900 while prices up 18.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1021.9 and below same could see a test of 1005.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1049.7, a move above could see prices testing 1061.2.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1005.6-1061.2.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -11.4 Rupees to end at 1112.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices rallied as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.91% at 8820 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9000 Rupees dropped -36.1 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.98% to settled at 12815 while prices down -172 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8720 and below same could see a test of 8622 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8998, a move above could see prices testing 9178.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8622-9178.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9000 Rupees dropped -36.1 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 21205 as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. However downside seen limited on reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 272.2 Rupees to end at 21100 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.73% to settled at 11367 while prices up 20 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20990 and below same could see a test of 20775 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21550, a move above could see prices testing 21895.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20775-21895.
Jeera settled flat as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year.
Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations.
However downside seen limited on reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 272.2 Rupees to end at 21100 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 37690 as support seen after in its latest March report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton ending stocks in 2021-22 to 82.57 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 84.31 million bales projected in February 2022. In the world 2021/22 cotton balance sheet, ending stocks are 1.7 million bales lower than a month earlier. A 300,000-bale decrease in production accounts for some of this change, but most of the decline stems from lower beginning stocks, reflecting updated Indian consumption estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21 to reflect Indian government sources. Projected world 2021/22 consumption is marginally higher this month, up 111,000 bales, but with a 1-million-bale increase in the 2020/21 global estimate, March’s projected consumption growth rate is lower this month. World consumption is now expected to grow 2.1 percent from a year earlier, below the 2.8 percent rate forecast in February. Support also seen amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack has resulted in the crop selling at over 60 per cent higher than the minimum support price (MSP). Production of Cotton is estimated at 34.06 million bales (each of 170 kg) is higher by 1.12 million bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 million bales, as per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2021-22. In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 37140 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.39% to settled at 6581 while prices up 290 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37460 and below same could see a test of 37230 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37810, a move above could see prices testing 37930.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 37230-37930.
Cotton gains as support seen after USDA revises down 2021-22 global cotton ending stock estimates to 82.57 million bales
In the world 2021/22 cotton balance sheet, ending stocks are 1.7 million bales lower than a month earlier.
World consumption is now expected to grow 2.1 percent from a year earlier, below the 2.8 percent rate forecast in February.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 20 Rupees to end at 37140 Rupees.

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