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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 56955 betting on firm safe-haven demand as recession risks linger and with expectations of smaller U.S. interest rate hikes. Concerns over a slowdown remain, and this is likely to keep demand for gold, considered a safe store of value during uncertain times, on a firm footing this year. Interest-rate futures traders moved after Friday's job report to price in a further interest-rate increase in May, which would bring the policy rate to the 5%-5.25% range, and are now expecting eventual Fed rate cuts to start in November versus in September previously. Data showed U.S. services industry activity rebounded strongly in January, with new orders recovering and prices paid by businesses for materials continuing to rise at a moderate pace. Physical gold demand in India ticked up last week, as jewellers resumed purchases after staying away for a couple of weeks hoping for an import duty cut in the government budget amid the wedding season. Venezuela's central bank's gold reserves dropped 13% to a new 50-year low last year, falling 10 tonnes in 2022. The number of gold bars in the bank's vaults in Caracas sank to an equivalent of 69 tonnes at the end of December 2022. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.18% to settle at 17210 while prices are up 370 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56663 and below same could see a test of 56372 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57220, a move above could see prices testing 57486.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56372-57486.
* Gold regained betting on firm safe-haven demand as recession risks linger and with expectations of smaller U.S. interest rate hikes.
* Concerns over a slowdown remain, and this is likely to keep demand for gold, considered a safe store of value during uncertain times, on a firm footing this year
* Data showed U.S. job growth accelerated sharply last month


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 67399 amid concerns that the Federal Reserve might keep hiking interest rates to cool inflation. The dollar index held near a three-week high as a blockbuster U.S. jobs report and upbeat service sector data revived worries about the interest-rate outlook. Non-farm payroll employment soared by 517,000 jobs in January while economists had expected an increase of 185,000 jobs. The jobless rate slipped to a multi-decade low of 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent. U.S. service industries returned to growth in January but there were signs that pricing pressures may be easing. Also boosting the safe-haven dollar was escalating tensions between the United States and China. The Biden administration decided to postpone Secretary of State Antony Blinken's upcoming trip to China in response to the Pentagon's discovery of an alleged Chinese spy balloon, that was later shot down. At the same, recession concerns pressured prices further, as investors worried about low demand for the metal as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, which was reflected in its sharp underperformance to gold in January. Still, projections of weak supply limited the fall, as COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles plunged amid outflows to India. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.03% to settle at 14352 while prices are down -177 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67071 and below same could see a test of 66743 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67956, a move above could see prices testing 68513.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66743-68513.
* Silver remained in range amid concerns that the Federal Reserve might keep hiking interest rates to cool inflation.
* Dollar index held near a three-week high after a blockbuster U.S. jobs report and upbeat service sector data
* Non-farm payroll employment soared by 517,000 jobs in January


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 6131 after IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that China’s economy could be poised for a stronger-than-anticipated rebound that will boost demand for crude. Oil producers may have to reconsider their output policies following a demand recovery in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, the International Energy Agency's Executive Director Fatih Birol said. China, the world's largest crude importer and No. 2 buyer of liquefied natural gas, has become the biggest uncertain factor in global oil and gas markets in 2023 as investors bet on the speed of its recovery after Beijing lifted COVID restrictions in December. Also, operations at the Ceyhan oil terminal in southern Turkey were suspended as a precaution after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit the country and Syria. However, no damages to the pipeline were reported. At the same time, Saudi Arabia raised the crude price for Asian markets for the first time in six months. Prices were also increased to Northern and Southern Europe and the US. Meanwhile, the European ban on seaborne imports and price caps for Russian oil products also came into effect on Sunday. Iraq produced 4.33 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in January, down by 100,000 bpd from the previous month. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.59% to settle at 8905 while prices are up 34 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6036 and below same could see a test of 5941 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6197, a move above could see prices testing 6263.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5941-6263.
* Crude oil gains after IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that China’s economy could be poised for a stronger-than-anticipated rebound
* Saudi Arabia raised the crude price for Asian markets for the first time in six months.
* The European ban on seaborne imports and price caps for Russian oil products also came into effect on Sunday.


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 200.9 as prices remained in range as warmer weather next week is expected to further impact the demand. Federal regulators approved Freeport's plan to start sending gas to one of the plant's three liquefaction trains, which turn gas into LNG. The energy market expects gas prices to rise once the plant starts pulling in large amounts of gas. Freeport can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into LNG each day. That is about 2% of total U.S. daily gas production. Gas prices were also supported by this week's roughly 3.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) drop in gas output to a one-month low of 93.9 bcfd as winter storms freeze oil and gas wells – known as freeze-offs – in several states, including Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across much of the U.S. Lower 48 states would remain below normal through Feb. 4 before rising to mostly above-normal levels from Feb. 5 through at least Feb. 17. Those above normal levels, however, were lower than previously expected. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.03% to settle at 40948 while prices are down -0.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 197.6 and below same could see a test of 194.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 205.8, a move above could see prices testing 210.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 194.2-210.6.
* Natural gas remained in range as warmer weather next week is expected to further impact the demand.
* Federal regulators approved Freeport's plan to start sending gas to one of the plant's three liquefaction trains
* However, downside seen limited amid roughly 3.7 bcfd drop in gas output to a one-month low of 93.9 bcfd



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 770.3 as demand concerns and a firmer dollar more than offset supply disruptions. The latest data pointed to a bigger-than-usual inventory build-up in China over the Lunar New Year holiday despite subdued imports, raising concerns about demand. Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses jumped by 61.8% since January 20 to 226,509 tonnes on February 3. On the supply side, the Las Bambas mine in Peru officially halted production on February 1st. The copper mine accounts for 2% of the metal worldwide and had been operating at a reduced rate since December 7, after Congress removed and arrested President Castillo. The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 52.9 in January 2023 from 48.0 in December. This was the first expansion in the service sector since last August supported by a rebound in business activity and new work, amid lifting Covid-zero policies and a recovery in customer demand. Both activity and new work increased for the first time in 5 months. The Caixin China General Composite PMI climbed to 51.1 in January 2023 from 48.3 in the previous month. This was the first growth in private sector activity since last August, buoyed by the removal of tough pandemic measures. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.45% to settle at 4038 while prices are down -1.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 764.3 and below same could see a test of 758.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 775.4, a move above could see prices testing 780.4.
Trading Ideas:
# Copper trading range for the day is 758.2-780.4.
# Copper fell as demand concerns and a firmer dollar more than offset supply disruptions.
# The latest data pointed to a bigger-than-usual inventory build-up in China over the Lunar New Year holiday despite subdued imports.
# Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses jumped by 61.8% since January 20 to 226,509 tonnes on February 3.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.55% at 277.6 as investors fretted about a slow demand recovery in top consumer China and the U.S. dollar held firm. Citi Research economists said they believed a softer-than-anticipated China recovery and sustained manufacturing-sector weakness outside China would keep metals demand under pressure. China's refined zinc output was 620,000 mt in December 2022, up 4% year-on-year. On the one hand, a large zinc smelter in north-west China completed its annual production target ahead of schedule and controlled its output in December. Despite the above-mentioned output decline, the refine zinc production in December still climbed thanks to the full-capacity operation of smelters in Shaanxi and concentrated production resumption of smelters in Sichuan. LME zinc inventories remain on the decline despite a slower drop, according to LME data. LME zinc stocks hit a multiple-year low and currently stand at 17,425 mt. SHFE zinc inventories grew for four weeks on end, and stood at 44,248 mt, with a weekly gain of 26.07%, the highest in two and a half months. Data shows that the zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 174,100 mt as of February 3, up 70,600 mt from a week ago and up 16,200 mt from this Monday (January 30). Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.67% to settle at 2387 while prices are down -7.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 273.7 and below same could see a test of 269.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 283.5, a move above could see prices testing 289.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 269.8-289.4.
* Zinc dropped as investors fretted about a slow demand recovery in top consumer China and the U.S. dollar held firm.
* China's refined zinc output was 620,000 mt in December 2022, up 4% year-on-year.
* Data shows that the zinc ingot social inventories in China totalled 174,100 mt as of February 3, up 70,600 mt from a week ago



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 221.55 as soft global demand weighed on sentiment despite the latest supply disruptions. Aluminium ingot social inventory stood at 1.05 million mt as of Thursday February 2, up 303,000 mt from before the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday January 20 and 61,000 mt from this Monday January 30. The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 52.9 in January 2023 from 48.0 in December. This was the first expansion in the service sector since last August supported by a rebound in business activity and new work, amid lifting Covid-zero policies and a recovery in customer demand. Both activity and new work increased for the first time in 5 months. The modest upturn in new work was supported by higher customer numbers, particularly with the relaxation of rules around travel, but also improved foreign demand. The premiums for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for January to March were set at $85-$86 a tonne, down 13%-14% from the previous quarter, reflecting slack demand and high stocks. The figures are lower than the $99 per tonne paid in the October-December quarter and mark a fifth consecutive quarterly decline and the lowest premium since the July-September quarter of 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.59% to settle at 3740 while prices are down -1.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 218.7 and below same could see a test of 215.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 225, a move above could see prices testing 228.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 215.8-228.4.
* Aluminum dropped as soft global demand weighed on sentiment despite the latest supply disruptions.
* Aluminium ingot social inventory stood at 1.05 million mt as of Thursday February 2, up 303,000 mt
* The Caixin China General Composite PMI climbed to 51.1 in January 2023 from 48.3 in the previous month.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 1008 on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -6.6 Rupees to end at 1176.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.8% to settle at 925 while prices are down -6.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1004.4 and below same could see a test of 1000.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1012.1, a move above could see prices testing 1016.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1000.9-1016.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -6.6 Rupees to end at 1176.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.14% at 7300 in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop. Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high. The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop. Yield is high in some areas and low in some areas, though Actually, we are wondering what the actual production could be in Maharashtra since the area under the crop has gone up rapidly this year. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7209.95 Rupees dropped -6.45 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.46% to settle at 13230 while prices are down -84 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7258 and below same could see a test of 7218 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7364, a move above could see prices testing 7430.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7218-7430.
* Turmeric dropped in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop.
* Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7209.95 Rupees dropped -6.45 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -4.65% at 32615 on profit booking after prices gained on amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -557.45 Rupees to end at 32616.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.07% to settle at 4278 while prices are down -1590 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 32110 and below same could see a test of 31605 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33510, a move above could see prices testing 34405.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 31605-34405.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,832.00 hectares against sown area of 2021-22 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -557.45 Rupees to end at 32616.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

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