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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -2.73% at 52745 weighed down by a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. U.S. Treasury yields rose despite renewed concerns about how the Russia-Ukraine war could intensify price pressures. Pressure also seen as equities are on the rise as investors took a breather from a sell-off fueled by escalating tensions in Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden announced a ban on U.S imports of Russian oil in consultation with European allies, who rely heavily more heavily than the U.S. on Russian energy. The U.K. said it would phase out the import of Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022. The EU didn't follow suit and said the bloc could become fully independent of Russian gas, oil and coal by 2030. Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country is no longer pressing for NATO membership, a delicate issue that was one of Russia's stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbor. "NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," he said. "The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia." China's Shanghai Gold Exchange said that it would raise margin requirements for some silver contract to 14% from 12%, and the trading limit to 13% from 11%. The bourse will also hike some gold contracts' margins to 10% from 8%, and to raise trading limit to 9% from 7%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.06% to settled at 10535 while prices down -1479 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51850 and below same could see a test of 50956 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 54414, a move above could see prices testing 56084.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50956-56084.
Gold prices fell weighed down by a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
U.S. Treasury yields rose despite renewed concerns about how the Russia-Ukraine war could intensify price pressures.
Pressure also seen as equities are on the rise as investors took a breather from a sell-off fueled by escalating tensions in Ukraine.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -2.54% at 69575 after reports suggested that Russia and Ukraine may be inching toward a negotiated settlement after two weeks of war. Russia's Foreign Ministry dropped what had appeared to be a key element of its war objectives as Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow doesn't want to occupy Ukraine or overthrow its government. Reflecting a jump in imports and a steep drop in exports, the Commerce Department released a report showing the U.S. trade deficit widened by more than expected in the month of January. The Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened to $89.7 billion in January from a revised $82.0 billion in December. China's Shanghai Gold Exchange said that it would raise margin requirements for some silver contract to 14% from 12%, and the trading limit to 13% from 11%. The bourse will also hike some gold contracts' margins to 10% from 8%, and to raise trading limit to 9% from 7%. After reporting a spike in U.S. wholesale inventories in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report showing a continued increase in wholesale inventories in the month of January. The report showed wholesale inventories climbed by 0.8 percent in January after surging by an upwardly revised 2.6 percent in December. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.75% to settled at 6835 while prices down -1810 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68248 and below same could see a test of 66921 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 71974, a move above could see prices testing 74373.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 66921-74373.
Silver fell after reports suggested that Russia and Ukraine may be inching toward a negotiated settlement after two weeks of war.
U.S. trade deficit widens to new record high in January
U.S. wholesale inventories increase in line with estimates in January


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -9.8% at 8513 as some investors took the view that the U.S. ban on Russian oil may not worsen a supply shock and the head of the International Energy Agency said the agency could further tap oil stocks to ease prices. U.S. President Joe Biden imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports and Britain said it would phase out Russian oil imports through the end of 2022. Oil prices have surged more than 30% since Russia, the world's second-largest crude exporter, invaded Ukraine. Fears of further disruptions to oil supply amid escalating sanctions on Moscow has boosted buying. Behind the rally was also expectations that an imminent return of Iranian crude to global markets was unlikely, as talks on Iran's nuclear programme have slowed between Tehran and world powers. U.S. crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels for the week ended March 4, against analysts' forecast of a drop, but gasoline and distillate stocks fell, according to American Petroleum Institute figures. Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) resumed production at its El Feel oilfield after lifting force majeure there, NOC said in a statement. NOC had declared force majeure at the field after an armed group shut the pipeline valve last week. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.88% to settled at 6863 while prices down -925 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7963 and below same could see a test of 7414 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9411, a move above could see prices testing 10310.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7414-10310.
Crude oil fell as the head of the International Energy Agency said the agency could further tap oil stocks to ease prices.
US oil output expected near record high in 2023 at 13 mn barrels daily: EIA
Iran's chief nuclear talks negotiator returns to Vienna


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.11% at 346.5 amid prospects of lower weather-driven demand after mid-March and as prices of gas in Europe and Asia fell from records. U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 96.69 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 99.15 bcfd in 2023 from a record 93.56 bcfd in 2021. The agency also projected that gas consumption would rise to 84.59 bcfd in 2022 from 82.97 bcfd in 2021, then slide to 84.26 bcfd in 2023. That compares with a record 85.29 bcfd in 2019. EIA's projections in March for 2022 were bigger than its February forecasts of 96.09 bcfd for supply and 84.27 bcfd for demand. The agency forecast U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would reach 11.34 bcfd in 2022 and 12.13 bcfd in 2023, up from a record 9.76 bcfd in 2021. That is a little lower than its February forecast of 11.35 bcfd in 2022. Von der Leyen also told Germany's ARD television that sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine were designed to cause maximum impact on Moscow, while causing the least damage possible to Western economies. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.05% to settled at 3881 while prices down -3.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 339.7 and below same could see a test of 332.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 354.8, a move above could see prices testing 363.1.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 332.9-363.1.
Natural gas dropped amid prospects of lower weather-driven demand after mid-March and as prices of gas in Europe and Asia fell from records.
U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows
EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 96.69 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -4.68% at 800.8 on continued profit booking after prices rallied amid lingering worries of supply disruptions due to war in Ukraine and historically low inventories. Copper stocks held by LME were at 68,825 tonnes, the lowest level since 2005. In February, those in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex were below 200,000 tonnes. Suppliers are especially low in Europe and although Russia accounts only for 4% of global production Europe is the primary export market. Adding to woes, the world's biggest producer Chile, recorded its lowest January output since 2011, with production sinking 15% compared to December and 7.5% from January 2021. On the other side, copper usage is surging, especially in developed countries, with increasing demand for electric vehicles, wind farms, solar panels, and power grids. On the fundamentals, domestic copper cathode output in February stood at 835,700 mt, up 2.1% month-on-month (MoM) and 1.7% year-on-year (YoY). And it is expected that China's copper cathode output will be 865,900 mt in March, an increase of 3.6% month on month and 0.6% year on year. Only a small number of smelters in north China were affected by the Winter Olympics, reducing the output by about 15,000 mt. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.05% to settled at 2885 while prices down -39.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 779.3 and below same could see a test of 757.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 836.2, a move above could see prices testing 871.5.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 757.7-871.5.
Copper dropped on continued profit booking after prices rallied amid lingering worries of supply disruptions due to war in Ukraine and historically low inventories.
Copper stocks held by LME were at 68,825 tonnes, the lowest level since 2005.
In February, those in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex were below 200,000 tonnes.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -5.45% at 314.85 as the market sentiment cooled down after deviation from rationality in the past few days. High overseas natural gas and electricity prices were still at historical high, and zinc prices were dominated by estimated energy supply disruption and LME trade abnormalities. China's refined zinc output stood at 458,400 mt in February, down 59,200 mt or 11.43% MoM and 2.72% YoY. From January to February 2022, the combined refined zinc output stood at 976,000 mt, a decrease of 3.7% year on year. And the output is expected to be 528,500 mt in March, a significant increase of 70,200 mt from February and up 6.37% or 31,700 mt YoY. German industrial production rose in January as unusually mild weather allowed production in construction to recover from a slump the previous month, official data showed. The Federal Statistics Office said the country's industrial output rose 2.7% on the month after an upwardly revised increase of 1.1% in December. China's producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8% on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, easing from 9.1% growth in January. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.8% to settled at 898 while prices down -18.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 304.1 and below same could see a test of 293.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 332.2, a move above could see prices testing 349.4.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 293.2-349.4.
Zinc dropped as the market sentiment cooled down after deviation from rationality in the past few days.
China's refined zinc output stood at 458,400 mt in February, down 59,200 mt or 11.43% MoM and 2.72% YoY.
From January to February 2022, the combined refined zinc output stood at 976,000 mt, a decrease of 3.7% year on year.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -4.07% at 3205.2 to release the risks after easing supply concerns, and the downstream restocked on dips. China's producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8% on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, easing from 9.1% growth in January. China's efforts to stabilise commodity prices face new challenges due to high prices for coal, natural gas and iron ore because of COVID-19, a monetary policy shift in big economies and geopolitical conflicts, an official at the state economic planner said. Japan's strong economic growth in the final quarter of 2021 was downgraded in a revised estimate, while pressures from record COVID-19 infections and rising energy costs are heightening risks of a contraction this quarter. The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed in a matter of hours to records of over $100,000 a tonne. China's Shanghai Futures Exchange will suspend the trading of some nickel contracts for one day, beginning from the night trading session on March 9. Russia's President Vladimir Putin signed a decree restricting the import and export of goods and raw materials "to ensure the security of the Russian Federation", but specific materials were not identified. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.67% to settled at 365 while prices down -136 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 3072.8 and below same could see a test of 2940.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3405.8, a move above could see prices testing 3606.4.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2940.4-3606.4.
Nickel dropped to release the risks after easing supply concerns, and the downstream restocked on dips.
The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed over $100,000 a tonne.
China's Shanghai Futures Exchange will suspend the trading of some nickel contracts for one day


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -4.54% at 267.2 as traders maintained a cautious stance following a worsening conflict in eastern Europe and mounting sanctions on major supplier Russia. The United States banned imports of Russian oil in a new step to halt the war by crippling Russia's economy, while it faces further economic sanctions from the West for invading Ukraine. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation". The conflict and ensuing sanctions have played havoc with global supply chains, sending prices soaring across the commodities market. Stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses were at 779,350 tonnes, hovering near their lowest levels since 2007. However, the discount of LME cash aluminium to the three-month contract has expanded to $27.50 a tonne, widest since June 2021. Inventories in Shanghai exchange warehouses have risen to 345,207 tonnes, their highest level since May 2021. China's producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. Russia said it is ready to provide humanitarian corridors on Wednesday for people fleeing Kyiv and four other Ukrainian cities, as the number of refugees created by the biggest assault on a European country since World War Two surpassed 2 million. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.65% to settled at 2203 while prices down -12.7 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 259 and below same could see a test of 250.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 280.7, a move above could see prices testing 294.1.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 250.7-294.1.
Aluminium dropped as traders maintained a cautious stance following a worsening conflict in eastern Europe and mounting sanctions on Russia
Stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses were at 779,350 tonnes, hovering near their lowest levels since 2007.
Inventories in Shanghai exchange warehouses have risen to 345,207 tonnes, their highest level since May 2021.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 1019.4 on profit booking after prices rallied as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 14 Rupees to end at 1124.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.07% to settled at 924 while prices down -1.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1009.9 and below same could see a test of 1000.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1030.8, a move above could see prices testing 1042.3.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1000.5-1042.3.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 14 Rupees to end at 1124.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices rallied as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 8992 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year, but higher by 6.5% over the 5-year average. For the past three years, traders were offering lower price for turmeric due to lack of demand. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9036.1 Rupees gained 33.3 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.57% to settled at 12325 while prices up 68 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8856 and below same could see a test of 8718 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9140, a move above could see prices testing 9286.
 

Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8718-9286.
Turmeric gained as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra
In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9036.1 Rupees gained 33.3 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.15% at 21185 as the area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. In Gujarat, the area has decreased to 3.40 lh from 4.70 lh last year. The crop will be around 60-65 lakh bags this year (of 55 kg each). Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. However upside seen limited due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. Exports of jeera were estimated to be 2.99 lakh tonnes valued at 4,253.10 crores in 2020-21, up from 2.14 lakh tonnes valued at 3,328 crores the previous year. The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability. Exports of Indian cumin usually decrease after July-August every year when Turkey and Syria used to supply the global consumers. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 533.35 Rupees to end at 20827.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.67% to settled at 10359 while prices up 445 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20820 and below same could see a test of 20460 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21490, a move above could see prices testing 21800.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20460-21800.
Jeera gained as area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year
However upside seen limited due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations.
In Gujarat, the area has decreased to 3.40 lh from 4.70 lh last year.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 533.35 Rupees to end at 20827.8 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 37400 amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack has resulted in the crop selling at over 60 per cent higher than the minimum support price (MSP). Production of Cotton is estimated at 34.06 million bales (each of 170 kg) is higher by 1.12 million bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 million bales, as per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2021-22. India’s cotton production for the crop year 2021-2022 is estimated at 27million 480-Pound Bales versus USDA’s January estimate of 27.5million 480-pound bales and 2020- 21’s production of 27.6 480-pound bales. India’s ending stocks are estimated at 9.84million 480-pound bales for 2021-22, the lowest level in the 3-Year, versus 13.44 million 480- pound bales in 2020-2021 and 16.18 million 480- pound bales in 2019-20. The Cotton Association of India has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 12.00 lakh bales to 34.8 million bales of 170 kgs from its previous estimate of 36 million bales of 170 kgs. As per USDA February report, the world-ending stock will fall further to 84.31million 480-pound bales, the lowest level in 3-Year, from their January’s forecast of 85.01million 480-pound bales and 2020-21’s Ending Stock of 88.41million 480-pound bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 110 Rupees to end at 37120 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.93% to settled at 6742 while prices up 240 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37150 and below same could see a test of 36910 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37650, a move above could see prices testing 37910.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 36910-37910.
Cotton gained amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack
Domestic cotton production has fallen for a third consecutive year in 2021-22
Domestic ending stocks will fall 26.8% in 2021-22 to a 3-Year low
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 110 Rupees to end at 37120 Rupees.

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