IGI Logo

Media Bulletin is our new series through which we aim to provide updates on the latest happenings in the media sector on amonthly basis.

Key data points:

* ZEEL market share in GEC for Q1FY24: Mostly maintained or increased across major languages with some decline in Kannada.

* Sun TV market share in GEC for Q1FY24: Sequential decline in Tamil and Telugu, maintained or increased in other major languages.

* GBO collection in Jul’23 (till 22nd Jul’23) at 16% , 34% , 38% of Q1FY24 in Hindi, English and regional movies.

What is happening in broadcasting

Ad revenues: Our channel checks indicate gradual improvement in ad spends. According to media reports, as inflation eases, marketers at leading FMCG companies are looking to spend more in FY24 (link). In fact, our consumer team notes that HUL hiked its A&P spend by 47 bps YoY in Q1FY24 (link). We think however, that meaningful recovery in ad revenues for linear TV may take time to materialise. We have built-in ad revenue recovery for Zee TV and Sun TV from H2FY24 (link)

Subscription revenues: Madras High Court has allowed Disney Hotstar to pay 4% commission fees to Google. Earlier, Google charged 11%-26% as service fee. While we understand that the 4% fee is a temporary arrangement, we will watch this space closely as this could have significant impact on the space (Link).

Other news: On 10th Jul’23, SAT refused to grant stay on SEBI order against ZEEL promoters and has allowed them 2 weeks’ time to file a response (link). NCLT has reserved its judgement in the merger proceedings (link). Additionally, IDBI Bank has recently moved to NCLAT, challenging the NCLT order with regards to ZeeSony merger (link). According to media reports, Disney is looking at different strategic options which include sale or entering into a joint venture with respect to its Indian assets, Star India and Hotstar (link).

What is happening in movie exhibition

Hollywood showing the way: Mission Impossible 7 exceeded expectations with GBO collections of INR 823mn at the Indian box office (link). “Oppenheimer’ and ‘Barbie’ have also started off on a strong note with GBO of INR 300 mn and INR 115 mn respectively (link). Interestingly, media reports claim that occupancy for ‘Oppenheimer’ (English language shows) was ~60% and even higher for premium IMAX screens (link). The occupancy numbers, in our view, are a clear indication of pent-up demand for good content.

Indian content pipeline remains strong: According to media reports, ‘Satya Prem Ki Katha’ was a surprise hit collecting INR 800 mn (link). Upcoming big releases in Hindi includes ‘Rocky Aur Rani Ki Prem Kahaani’, ‘Gadar 2’, ‘OMG 2’ and ‘Jawan’. Regional movies like the Rajnikanth starrer, ‘Jailer’ could potentially propel box office performance further.

Top Pick – PVR Inox

At current valuations, we think the stock is a strong BUY with ~30% upside and a favourable risk-reward skew. We have a price target of Rs1,950, implying 16x FY25E EBITDA (link).

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

or More ICICI Securities Disclaimer https://www.icicisecurities.com/AboutUs.aspx?About=7 SEBI Registration number is INH000000412

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer