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Indian markets failed to stay in the green in a choppy session on Wednesday, as gains in IT, oil & gas and metal shares were offset by losses in financial and auto stocks. Today, the markets are likely to make positive start following a strong session on Wall Street overnight. Traders may take note of report that the Income Tax department said it has issued refunds of over Rs 1.93 lakh crore to over 2.26 crore taxpayers till March 20 this fiscal. This includes 1.85 crore refunds of 2020-21, AY2021-22, amounting to Rs 38,447.27 crore. However, traders may be concerned as India’s projected economic growth for 2022 has been downgraded by over 2 per cent to 4.6 percent by the United Nations, a decrease attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability. There may be some cautiousness as S&P Global Ratings in its report said rising commodity prices, further triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, could moderate healthy recovery of the country’s economy, and put pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to normalise its monetary policy faster than anticipated. Besides, a private report stated that after crossing the $550-billion mark in the first 11 months of the financial year, India’s import bill is set to hit record highs in FY22 and probably touch $600 billion. Led by high prices of crude oil along with gold, diamond and industrial inputs, imports are set to continue their strong rise in the first half of FY23. Meanwhile, the government has proposed to tighten the norms for taxation of cryptocurrencies by disallowing set off of any losses with gains from other virtual digital assets. Oil & Gas industry stocks will be in focus as Petrol and diesel prices were hiked by 80 paise a litre each on Friday, the third increase in four days as oil firms recoup losses from holding rates during the period prior to the recently-concluded assembly elections. There will be some reaction in OMCs stocks as Moody’s Investors Service said state-run fuel retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL have together lost around $2.25 billion (Rs 17,000 crore) in revenue between November and March third week by keeping petrol and diesel prices unchanged despite a sharp rise in crude oil prices.

The US markets ended higher on Thursday as investors watched western leaders present a unified front against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Asian markets are trading mixed on Friday amid a hawkish Fed, shifts in Chinese economic policy and ongoing ructions in commodity markets due to the Ukraine war.

Back home, in highly volatile trade, Indian equity benchmarks traded in red for most part of the day and ended marginally lower on Thursday, as geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia remained unabated. Besides, Brent crude prices above $120 per barrel also added to investor woes. Key indices made a gap-down opening, as traders got worried with the Ministry of Commerce & Industry stated that total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow to India declined to $74.01 billion in the calendar year 2021, which is 15 per cent lower from $87.55 billion recorded in the previous year.  Traders remained cautious with private report stated that domestic banks' share in the overall commercial credit has plunged to a low of 34 per cent in FY2021 from 56 per cent in FY2011 partly due to the pandemic and more because companies are moving away from banks for funds. However, markets pared losses and traded flat with a positive bias in late morning session, as traders took some support with the government data showed that the country’s exports for the first time crossed the $400 billion mark in a fiscal on healthy performance by sectors such as petroleum products, engineering, gems and jewellery, and chemicals. But, key gauges failed to hold recovery and once again fell into negative terrain in afternoon deals, as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal expressed concerns over the country’s bilateral trade and said the government is in continuous dialogue with exporters to address the problems and challenges that are emerging due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and could lead to some kind of disruption in trade.  Meanwhile, the commerce ministry will extend the existing foreign trade policy (FTP) for some more months beyond March 31. Last year in September, the government extended the Foreign Trade Policy 2015-20 till March 31, 2022, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The present policy came into force on April 1, 2015. The policy provides guidelines related to imports and exports in India. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 89.14 points or 0.15% to 57,595.68 and the CNX Nifty was down by 22.90 points or 0.13% to 17,222.75.

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