Markets likely to get optimistic start tracking bounce back in global peers
Indian markets extended losses to a second straight session on Monday amid across-the-board selling, though gains in heavyweights such as ICICI Bank and the HDFC twins limited the downside. Today, markets are likely make optimistic start tracking a bounce back in global peers. Traders will be taking encouragement with CII President TV Narendran’s statement that India’s economy is expected to grow 7.5-8 per cent this fiscal year with exports playing a key role in the country’s success story. However, he said the country needs to remain prepared for any fallout of next wave of COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Traders may take note of a private report that the government has begun discussions on bringing parity between long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax on debt, listed equities and unlisted equities. However, there may be some cautiousness with India Ratings’ report that the ongoing headwinds like war-triggered inflation, rate tightening by RBI and weak rupee will lead to a Rs 60,000 crore increase in risky debt in FY23. Meanwhile, India and the EU will return to the negotiating table to start serious talks for a free trade agreement (FTA) in June after a gap of nine years. There will be some buzz in the chemical industry stocks as CRISIL Research projects the chemical industry’s revenue to rise 14-17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in the current fiscal year (FY23), driven by better performance by specialty chemicals, followed by polymers and agrochemicals. Edible oil industry stocks will be in focus with private report that the top global palm oil producer Indonesia’s plan to halt the export of the commodity from April 28 is heating up edible oil prices in the country. The prospect of a plunge in the largest imported edible oil to India is leading to a spike in prices of other edible oils as well. There will be some reaction in real estate industry stocks as India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said it expects housing prices to appreciate by 8 per cent this fiscal, mainly due to rise in demand from end users. Campus Activewear IPO (Initial Public Offering) is going to hit primary market today and the public issue worth Rs 1400 crore will remain open for subscription till 28th April 2022. Besides, the country’s largest initial public offering (IPO) of Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) is likely to open on May 4. Investors awaited more of financial results from India Inc for cues, with HDFC Life and Bajaj Finance due to report their numbers later in the day.
The US markets ended higher on Monday with the technology stocks-heavy Nasdaq Composite ending sharply higher after Twitter agreed to be bought by billionaire Elon Musk. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Tuesday tracking overnight gains on Wall Street.
Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for a second straight day on Monday, following weak trade in Asian market peers as global sell-off triggered by aggressive US Fed tightening and China covid fears. The markets had a gap down opening and showed weakness throughout the session, as a private report cut India's 2022-23 economic growth forecast by 70 basis points to 7 percent, citing slowing global growth due to high commodity prices, and weak local demand because of energy price hikes, inflationary pressures and a struggling labour market. Some cautiousness also came as the Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy stated that India’s labour force fell by 38 lakhs in the month of March to the lowest level in the last eight months, comprising a decline in the count of both employed and unemployed. During the afternoon session, markets traded at day's low as sentiments were fragile with the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) in its latest data has showed that India's crude oil import bill nearly doubled to $119 billion in the fiscal year that ended on March 31, as energy prices soared globally following the return of demand and war in Ukraine. Traders overlooked a survey by economic think-tank NCAER stating that business confidence index (BCI) improved in the January-March period of this year (Q4FY22) and would remain buoyant in the coming months. It said the BCI increased for the third consecutive quarter by 14.9 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis from 124.4 points in October-December period of 2021–22 to 142.9 points in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the GST Council has not sought views from states on hiking tax rates. They said that the panel of ministers looking into GST rate rationalisation is yet to submit its report to the GST Council. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 617.26 points or 1.08% to 56,579.89 and the CNX Nifty was down by 218.00 points or 1.27% to 16,953.95.
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