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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to rise towards the higher end of the consolidation range $1900-1926 amid decline in US treasury yields and softness in the US dollar index. Further, expectation of weaker economic numbers and decline in US JOLTS job openings could support the bullions to hold its ground. Meanwhile, the CME Fed-Watch tool suggests more than 75% probability of no hike in rates in September. However, the probability of 25 bps hike in November has increased to 50% suggesting tighter monetary policy

• MCX Gold futures is expected to rise towards 50 day EMA at 59050, as long as it holds above 58600. Only a sustained move above 59050 would push the price towards 59250

• MCX Silver December is expected to rise 75600, as long as it holds above 74400 . Only close above 75600 would push the price towards 76200.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to find support near 728 and rise back towards 736 amid softer dollar and hopes of fresh stimulus from the top metal consumer China to support the housing sector. Meanwhile, focus will shift towards today key US HPI numbers which could bring further clarity in price trend

• MCX Copper is trading above the bullish cross over of 20 and 50 day EMA, which could help the metal to hold its gains and move back towards 736.

• MCX aluminium is likely to move inside the range of 197-200. Only a close outside of the range would bring more clarity in its trend

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to hold its ground and move back towards immediate resistance at $81 mark amid concerns of tropical storm off the US Gulf coast which could impact supply. Further, improved risk sentiments in global markets and softness in dollar could support oil prices

• MCX Crude oil is likely find support near 6550 and rise towards 6680. Only close above 6680, it would open the doors towards 6750

• MCX Natural gas September future is expected find support near 218 and rise towards 230 on forecast of hotter than usual weather during the early parts of September.

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