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MCX Lead futures initially traded bearish during the June month owing to falling demand in the Asian countries due to rise in covid-19 cases including Japan. However, prices witness a pull back in the second half and during the July month so far owing positive industrial data reported in China, U.S. and European Union. Easing lockdown situation in the western countries has improved the industrial activities in the same, By 5th July, MCX Lead prices closed at Rs.178.94/kg, higher by 3.92% compared to closing of Rs,172,19/kg reported on 31st May.

Looking forward for the coming month, we expect MCX Lead futures to trade bullish as the China has once again improved the industrial usage with reports of significant fall in LME inventories. Rise in cancelled warrants have also indicated greater buying in the global market to support prices. China's car sales is expected to improve by 24.8% between January and June compared with the same period last year. Orders for German-made goods posted their sharpest slump in May by 3.7% since the first lockdown in 2020, data showed and hurt by weaker demand from countries outside the euro zone and fewer contracts for machinery and intermediate goods. As per International Lead and Zinc study Group (ILZSG), global refined lead production for the month of Apr'21 has reported at 1009.1 thousand metric tonnes(MT), lower by 9.77% compared to previous month's production of 1048.5 thousand metric tonnes, On the other hand, metal usage during Apr'21 has been reported at 1002.2 thousand tonnes, lower by 6.47% compared to previous month's usage of 1064.9 thousand tonnes. Although the data of is the earlier months, but then, mining activities in South America is expected to improve in the coming months with easing Covid-19 cases especially in Peru and Mexico countries. Hence, we expect bullish trend in MCX Lead futures for the month ahead.

On. the daily chart, MCX Lead (July) future has been rising continuously in a bullish trend with Higher Highs and Higher Lows formation from the last couple of days. In addition, the price has given a breakdown of Cup & Handle pattern, which indicates bullish movement in the near future. Moreover, the price has also sustained above prior resistance zone & 50 Exponential Moving Averages after the breakout which confirms the continued bullish trend. In addition, a momentum indicator RSI (14) reading is above 60 levels, which supports the upward trend. Furthermore, In LME division lead has also strong support at 2190. Hence, based on above technical structure one can initiate a buy position in MCX Lead (July) future at CMP 180 or a fall in the price till 178 levels can be used as buying opportunity for the upside target of 190. However, the bullish view will be negated if MCX Lead (Jun) future close below the support level of 175.

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