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MCX Copper prices has initially traded bearish during the month of June, owing to rising dollar index and bond yields in the global markets. Moreover, FED Chairman in their latest FOMC Meeting in June has taken a hawkish stance that they are likely to raise the interest rate two times by the end of the year 2023. This has significantly weighed on the bullion and base metal prices. By 24th June, MCX Copper futures closed at Rs.718/kg, lower by 6.38% compared to Rs.767/kg reported on 31st May.

Fundamentally for the coming month, we expect MCX Copper futures to trade bullish as the global economy is witnessing faster than expected recovery with Chinese Economy improving its industrial production and import of its raw material. Fast pace of the vaccination for the peaple in the western countries is also another factor that has added support in global copper prices. The economic activities in India is slowly recovering as lockdown in various states have started. But then, the economic data in the United States and China are showing recoveries which is expected to support prices. Correspondingly, copper prices could further upside as European countries are slowly opening up, however, worries in the Japanese economy continue as cases continue to rise with poor economic progress and reports on data. As per International Copper Study Group, global usage for Mar'21 has reported at 2.123 million tonnes, higher compared to 1.780 tonnes of the previous month. In the case of World Refinery production, global production for Mar’21 has been reported at 2.104 million tonnes, higher compared to 1.888 million tonnes of Feb'21. The usage exceeds over the production and is expected be supportive for Global copper prices inthe month ahead

On a four-hourly chart, MCX Copper (July) future has been falling continuously in Bearish Channel with Lower Highs and Lower Lows formation. In addition, the price is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, which confirms a bearish trend in the near future. Moreover, the price has also been trading below the 200 Exponential Moving Averages, which suggests bearish strength. However, an oscillator Stochastic RSI suggested positive crossover, which indicates some recovery in the counter till the upper band of channel & prior supply zone. Hence, based on above technical structure, we are recommending sell on rise strategy in MCX Copper (July) future around 735 or a rise in the price till 738 levels can be used as selling opportunity for the downside target of 691. However, the bearish view will be negated if MCX Copper (July) future close above the resistance level of 756.50.

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